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Global livestock trends—the past may not always predict the future
 

Global livestock trends—the past may not always predict the future

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Presentation by John McDermott, 12 May 2010.

Presentation by John McDermott, 12 May 2010.
United States National Academy of Sciences
Board of Agriculture and Natural Resources Meeting

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  • The reference by Steinfeld et al is online at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/a0701e/a0701e00.HTM
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  • Is there a list of references for this presentation? I am interested in th Steinfeld et al 2006.

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  • The regional abbreviations are: EAP: East Asia and Pacific; ECA: East Europe and Central Asia;
    IND: industrial countries; LAC: Latin American and Caribbean; MENA: Middle East and North Africa;
    SAS: South Asia; SSA: sub-Saharan Africa.
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  • A tour de force; an explanation of acronyms would be helpful for the uninitiated
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  • The way animal protein will be produced will change profoundly. Industrial type of production will grow much faster than land-based production. Grazing systems face important resource constraints. Mixed farming, too, cannot expand at the pace of demand for animal products. This trend is uniform throughout the major regions of the developing world, but particularly pronounced where the demand for animal products is growing fastest.

Global livestock trends—the past may not always predict the future Global livestock trends—the past may not always predict the future Presentation Transcript

  • Global livestock trends – the past may not always predict the future John McDermott Deputy Director General - Research United States National Academy of Sciences Board of Agriculture and Natural Resources Meeting May 12, 2010
  • Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
    • Global trends in meat and milk
    • Main drivers of demand and supply
    • Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
    • What might change in future?
    • Future choices
  • Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
    • Global trends in meat and milk
    • Main drivers of demand and supply
    • Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
    • What might change in future?
    • Future choices
  • Global Meat Trends 1990-2009 Production and Trade
  • Global Milk Trends 1981-2018 Production
  • As people get richer they consume more animal products Steinfeld et al 2006 1962 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 Consumption Kg/person/year Cereals 132 145 159 170 161 156 Roots and tubers 18 19 17 14 15 15 Starchy roots 70 73 63 53 61 61 Meat 10 11 14 19 27 29 Milk 28 29 34 38 45 48
  • Consumption of livestock products in the developing World is projected to increase even faster IAASTD 2007
  • Revised demand for livestock products to 2050 Rosegrant et al 2009 Annual per capita consumption Total consumption year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt) Developing 2002 2050 28 44 44 78 137 326 222 585 Developed 2002 2050 78 94 202 216 102 126 265 295
    • Smallholders predominate and 80% population are “farmers”
    • Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008)
    • Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber et al 2007)
    • Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in the developing World.
    Livestock and livelihoods Herrero et al 2008a
  • Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
    • Global trends in meat and milk
    • Main drivers of demand and supply
    • Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
    • What might change in future?
    • Future choices
    • Population Growth in Developing and Industrialized Countries: 1750 - 2050
  • A strong increase in demand for meat and milk as income grows 0 1 2 3 4 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 Log per capita GNP Log per capita consumption of meat Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution , a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study. 10 China India Trend The Livestock Revolution:
  • Rates of production of animal products increase at significantly faster rates…. Increased consumption Increased incomes … but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc) Growing industrialisation….
  • The Livestock Revolution: Growth in meat mainly in industrial systems Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution , a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study. Growth Rates (%/Y) of Meat Production in Different Production Systems in Developing Countries -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Asia SSA WANA CSA grazing systems mixed systems industrial systems
  • Global Milk Trends 1981-2018 Production Over the past twenty-five years developing countries contributed nearly three-quarters of global consumption gains for both meat and dairy .....in dairy 80% of production increase came from smallholders
  • When it was all holding together… Wood et al. 2005 … it might still do…but we need to target appropriate investments and ‘do the right thing’
  • The feed grain challenge Coarse Grain Area Coarse Grain Feed Meat Production Meat production growth, mainly pigs and poultry, exceeds feed growth raising questions about long term sustainability of feed supplies. Index: 1980-1990=1
  • ETHANOL PRODUCTION BIODIESEL PRODUCTION Mostly from grain feedstocks – except for Brazil Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017 Millions of gallons Millions of gallons
  • Real world cereal prices projected to rise 30-40 percent beyond current high levels (IMPACT model) Cereals Source: IFPRI
  • Real world meat prices projected to rise 20-30 percent beyond current high levels (IMPACT model) Meat Source: IFPRI
  • Increasing land and water constraints (WDR, 2008) % of population in absolute water scarcity Cropland per capita of agricultural population
  • Rates of cereal production due to water and other constraints in places Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countries Catching up Rates lower than those of population growth
  • W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system An example of the changing nature of livestock systems Courtesy of B. Gerard
  • … and then there’s climate change Thornton et al 2006
  • Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
    • Global trends in meat and milk
    • Main drivers of demand and supply
    • Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
    • What might change in future?
    • Future choices
  • CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O Deforestation Enteric fermentation Manure mgt Chemical N. fert. production On-farm fossil fuel Deforestation OM release from ag. soils Pasture degradation Processing fossil fuel Transport fossil fuel Enteric fermentation Manure storage / processing N fertilization Legume production Manure storage / processing Manure spreading / dropping Manu indirect emissions Livestock and GHG: 18%? of global emissions Prepared by Bonneau, 2008
  • Mitigation and adaptation in livestock systems
    • Adaptation and mitigation have to go hand in hand……. to generate win/win solutions, especially for poor countries with low carbon footprints
    • Significant adaptation needs as systems change to meet demand for livestock products and/or become more resilient to climate change
    • Significant mitigation in livestock systems required for meeting future increased demand for livestock products, both in production and processing , under carbon-constrained markets (real costing of externalities for rich and BRIC countries)
    Herrero et al 2009
  • Mitigation options
    • Reducing emissions: significant potential!
      • Managing demand for animal products (C-taxes)
      • Improvements in ruminant production – large production gaps for ruminants in developing world
      • Reduction of animal numbers; shift in animal species
      • Reduced livestock-induced deforestation, moving animals from wetter to drier areas
      • Feed additives to reduce enteric fermentation
      • Manure management (feed additives, methane production, regulations for manure disposal)
    Herrero and Thornton 2009, Herrero et al. 2009
  • Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
    • Global trends in meat and milk
    • Main drivers of demand and supply
    • Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
    • What might change in future?
    • Future choices
  • What might change in future?
    • Dramatic change in relative prices of grain to meat (ruminants versus monogastrics)
    • High values placed on environmental and / or social (equity) externalities
        • Favor poor versus richer countries
        • Favor dry versus wetter areas
    • Consolidation and foreign direct investment in agriculture in Africa (“land grab”)
    • Investments in sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture
  • Globally, most people are (and will be) in mixed crop – livestock systems Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World Mixed systems produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World and the share will increase to over 60% by 2030
  • Can we untap the potential for carbon sequestration in rangeland systems? Potential for carbon sequestration in rangelands (Conant and Paustian 2002)
    • Largest land use system
    • Potentially a large C sink
    • Could be an important income diversification source
    • Difficulties in:
    • Measuring and monitoring C stocks
    • Establishment of payment schemes
    • Dealing with mobile pastoralists
  • Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
    • Global trends in meat and milk
    • Main drivers of demand and supply
    • Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
    • What might change in future?
    • Future choices
  • Some key trade-offs
    • Biomass: food, feed, fuel and conservation agriculture
    • Sustainability – socio-economic versus environmental and how are these valued (“multi-value” approach)
    • Choices about where and how we raise animals
      • Wetter versus drier areas
      • Ruminants versus monogastrics
      • Moving towards moderate intensity systems
  • International Livestock Research Institute Better lives through livestock Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries www.ilri.org