Global livestock trends—the past may not always predict the future

Global livestock trends – the past may not always predict the future John McDermott Deputy Director General - Research United States National Academy of Sciences Board of Agriculture and Natural Resources Meeting May 12, 2010

Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future
Global trends in meat and milk
Main drivers of demand and supply
Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases
What might change in future?
Future choices

Global Meat Trends 1990-2009 Production and Trade

Global Milk Trends 1981-2018 Production

As people get richer they consume more animal products Steinfeld et al 2006 1962 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 Consumption Kg/person/year Cereals 132 145 159 170 161 156 Roots and tubers 18 19 17 14 15 15 Starchy roots 70 73 63 53 61 61 Meat 10 11 14 19 27 29 Milk 28 29 34 38 45 48

Consumption of livestock products in the developing World is projected to increase even faster IAASTD 2007

Revised demand for livestock products to 2050 Rosegrant et al 2009 Annual per capita consumption Total consumption year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt) Developing 2002 2050 28 44 44 78 137 326 222 585 Developed 2002 2050 78 94 202 216 102 126 265 295

Smallholders predominate and 80% population are “farmers”
Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008)
Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber et al 2007)
Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in the developing World.
Livestock and livelihoods Herrero et al 2008a

Future choices

Population Growth in Developing and Industrialized Countries: 1750 - 2050

A strong increase in demand for meat and milk as income grows 0 1 2 3 4 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 Log per capita GNP Log per capita consumption of meat Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution , a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study. 10 China India Trend The Livestock Revolution:

Rates of production of animal products increase at significantly faster rates…. Increased consumption Increased incomes … but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc) Growing industrialisation….

The Livestock Revolution: Growth in meat mainly in industrial systems Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution , a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study. Growth Rates (%/Y) of Meat Production in Different Production Systems in Developing Countries -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Asia SSA WANA CSA grazing systems mixed systems industrial systems

Global Milk Trends 1981-2018 Production Over the past twenty-five years developing countries contributed nearly three-quarters of global consumption gains for both meat and dairy .....in dairy 80% of production increase came from smallholders

When it was all holding together… Wood et al. 2005 … it might still do…but we need to target appropriate investments and ‘do the right thing’

The feed grain challenge Coarse Grain Area Coarse Grain Feed Meat Production Meat production growth, mainly pigs and poultry, exceeds feed growth raising questions about long term sustainability of feed supplies. Index: 1980-1990=1

ETHANOL PRODUCTION BIODIESEL PRODUCTION Mostly from grain feedstocks – except for Brazil Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017 Millions of gallons Millions of gallons

Real world cereal prices projected to rise 30-40 percent beyond current high levels (IMPACT model) Cereals Source: IFPRI

Real world meat prices projected to rise 20-30 percent beyond current high levels (IMPACT model) Meat Source: IFPRI

Increasing land and water constraints (WDR, 2008) % of population in absolute water scarcity Cropland per capita of agricultural population

Rates of cereal production due to water and other constraints in places Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countries Catching up Rates lower than those of population growth

W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system An example of the changing nature of livestock systems Courtesy of B. Gerard

… and then there’s climate change Thornton et al 2006

Future choices

CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O Deforestation Enteric fermentation Manure mgt Chemical N. fert. production On-farm fossil fuel Deforestation OM release from ag. soils Pasture degradation Processing fossil fuel Transport fossil fuel Enteric fermentation Manure storage / processing N fertilization Legume production Manure storage / processing Manure spreading / dropping Manu indirect emissions Livestock and GHG: 18%? of global emissions Prepared by Bonneau, 2008

Mitigation and adaptation in livestock systems
Adaptation and mitigation have to go hand in hand……. to generate win/win solutions, especially for poor countries with low carbon footprints
Significant adaptation needs as systems change to meet demand for livestock products and/or become more resilient to climate change
Significant mitigation in livestock systems required for meeting future increased demand for livestock products, both in production and processing , under carbon-constrained markets (real costing of externalities for rich and BRIC countries)
Herrero et al 2009

Mitigation options
Reducing emissions: significant potential!
Managing demand for animal products (C-taxes)
Improvements in ruminant production – large production gaps for ruminants in developing world
Reduction of animal numbers; shift in animal species
Reduced livestock-induced deforestation, moving animals from wetter to drier areas
Feed additives to reduce enteric fermentation
Manure management (feed additives, methane production, regulations for manure disposal)
Herrero and Thornton 2009, Herrero et al. 2009

Future choices

Dramatic change in relative prices of grain to meat (ruminants versus monogastrics)
High values placed on environmental and / or social (equity) externalities
Favor poor versus richer countries
Favor dry versus wetter areas
Consolidation and foreign direct investment in agriculture in Africa (“land grab”)
Investments in sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture

Globally, most people are (and will be) in mixed crop – livestock systems Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World Mixed systems produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World and the share will increase to over 60% by 2030

Can we untap the potential for carbon sequestration in rangeland systems? Potential for carbon sequestration in rangelands (Conant and Paustian 2002)
Largest land use system
Potentially a large C sink
Could be an important income diversification source
Difficulties in:
Measuring and monitoring C stocks
Establishment of payment schemes
Dealing with mobile pastoralists

Future choices

Some key trade-offs
Biomass: food, feed, fuel and conservation agriculture
Sustainability – socio-economic versus environmental and how are these valued (“multi-value” approach)
Choices about where and how we raise animals
Wetter versus drier areas
Ruminants versus monogastrics
Moving towards moderate intensity systems

International Livestock Research Institute Better lives through livestock Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries www.ilri.org

Global livestock trends—the past may not always predict the future

by ILRI on May 16, 2010

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Global livestock trends—the past may not always predict the future — Presentation Transcript