Food insecurity in southern Africa: integrating some of the evidence

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A presentation by Alison Misselhorn at the Workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008.

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Food insecurity in southern Africa: integrating some of the evidence

  1. 1. Food insecurity in southern Africa: integrating some of the evidence<br />Presented by Alison Misselhornat the Workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008<br />
  2. 2. INTRODUCTION<br />Summary of findings from ‘What Drives Food Insecurity in Southern Africa: a meta-analysis of household economy studies”<br />Shifts in the food insecurity context since 2004<br />Some issues from experience<br />Key issues looking ahead<br />Questions to consider<br />
  3. 3. 1. FINDINGS OF A META-ANALYSIS<br />RATIONALE<br /><ul><li>Southern Africa food insecurity crisis
  4. 4. Food security largely about livelihoods that are sufficient to provide enough food for individuals and households</li></li></ul><li>OBJECTIVES<br /><ul><li>Determine the causes or drivers of food insecurity across southern Africa
  5. 5. Tap into HEA case studies since these look at ability of people to access food in the face of livelihood shocks and how they manipulate assets to do so</li></li></ul><li>METHODOLOGY<br /><ul><li>49 HEA case studies from across southern Africa</li></li></ul><li>National Report on local-level case studies<br />Local-level case study<br />
  6. 6. METHODOLOGY:<br /><ul><li>Development theoretical framework</li></li></ul><li>Food Security = Access to sufficient food for a healthy and active lifestyle<br /><ul><li>Cultivated food and livestock
  7. 7. Wild food
  8. 8. Livelihood opportunities and resilience</li></ul>Human drivers:<br /><ul><li>Extent of ecosystem service provision
  9. 9. People’s access to cultivated, wild and imported foods
  10. 10. Extent and availability of human, economic, biophysical and social resources
  11. 11. Economic
  12. 12. Demographic
  13. 13. Socio-political
  14. 14. Biophysical
  15. 15. Cultural</li></ul>Biophysical drivers:<br /><ul><li>Capacity of ecosystems to provide food, as well as support livelihoods and influence food access:
  16. 16. Soil
  17. 17. Climate
  18. 18. Terrain/slope
  19. 19. Pests & diseases
  20. 20. Ecosystem integrity</li></li></ul><li>METHODOLOGY<br /><ul><li>Development of list of 33 theoretical drivers from literature within theoretical framework
  21. 21. Simple classification system that would yield information about how drivers of food insecurity functioned</li></li></ul><li>Intensifying vulnerability<br />Livelihood strategies involving trade offs, which feed back to intensify food insecurity and vulnerability:<br /><ul><li>Reduced expenditure on essential goods & services
  22. 22. In & out-migration
  23. 23. Sale of assets
  24. 24. Decrease in the number & dietary variation of meals</li></ul>Food insecurity<br />Failure to access own food:65%<br />Failure to produce own food: 35%<br />Direct drivers % <br />Climate & env. Stressors 12<br />Poverty 7<br />Increase in food prices 5<br />Failure in land rights/ land access 5<br />Lack of employment 5<br />Lack of education 5<br />Poor market access 4<br />Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4<br />Poor human health 4<br />Low regional cereal availability 4<br />Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4<br />In- and out- migration 4<br />Inflation 4<br />Social and political unrest or war 3<br />Sale of assets 3<br />Insufficient agricultural inputs 3<br />Government policies 3<br />TOTAL 80<br />33 % shock: 67% ongoing<br />Underlying drivers % <br />Poverty 21<br />Climate & env. Stressors 17<br />Social & political unrest 12<br />Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5<br />Government policies 5<br />In- and out- migration 4<br />Poor human health 4<br />Sale of assets 4<br />Low regional cereal avail. 4<br />Lack of education 3<br />Population pressure 3<br />TOTAL 81<br />
  25. 25. Underlying drivers of food insecurity % <br />Poverty 21<br />Climate & env. Stressors 17<br />Social & political unrest 12<br />Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5<br />Government policies 5<br />In- and out- migration 4<br />Poor human health 4<br />Sale of assets 4<br />Low regional cereal avail. 4<br />Lack of education 3<br />Population pressure 3<br />TOTAL 81<br />50%<br />
  26. 26. Intensifying vulnerability<br />Livelihood strategies involving trade offs, which feed back to intensify food insecurity and vulnerability:<br /><ul><li>Reduced expenditure on essential goods & services
  27. 27. In & out-migration
  28. 28. Sale of assets
  29. 29. Decrease in the number & dietary variation of meals</li></ul>Food insecurity<br />Failure to access own food:65%<br />Failure to produce own food: 35%<br />Direct drivers % <br />Climate & env. Stressors 12<br />Poverty 7<br />Increase in food prices 5<br />Failure in land rights/ land access 5<br />Lack of employment 5<br />Lack of education 5<br />Poor market access 4<br />Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4<br />Poor human health 4<br />Low regional cereal availability 4<br />Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4<br />In- and out- migration 4<br />Inflation 4<br />Social and political unrest or war 3<br />Sale of assets 3<br />Insufficient agricultural inputs 3<br />Government policies 3<br />TOTAL 80<br />33 % shock: 67% ongoing<br />Underlying drivers % <br />Poverty 21<br />Climate & env. Stressors 17<br />Social & political unrest 12<br />Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5<br />Government policies 5<br />In- and out- migration 4<br />Poor human health 4<br />Sale of assets 4<br />Low regional cereal avail. 4<br />Lack of education 3<br />Population pressure 3<br />TOTAL 81<br />
  30. 30. Direct drivers of food insecurity % <br />Climate & env. Stressors 12<br />Poverty 7<br />Increase in food prices 5<br />Failure in land rights/ land access 5<br />Lack of employment 5<br />Lack of education 5<br />Poor market access 4<br />Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4<br />Poor human health 4<br />Low regional cereal availability 4<br />Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4<br />In- and out- migration 4<br />Inflation 4<br />Social and political unrest or war 3<br />Sale of assets 3<br />Insufficient agricultural inputs 3<br />Government policies 3<br />TOTAL 80<br />33 % shock: 67% ongoing<br />
  31. 31. Intensifying vulnerability<br />Livelihood strategies involving trade offs, which feed back to intensify food insecurity and vulnerability:<br /><ul><li>Reduced expenditure on essential goods & services
  32. 32. In & out-migration
  33. 33. Sale of assets
  34. 34. Decrease in the number & dietary variation of meals</li></ul>Food insecurity<br />Failure to access own food:65%<br />Failure to produce own food: 35%<br />Direct drivers % <br />Climate & env. Stressors 12<br />Poverty 7<br />Increase in food prices 5<br />Failure in land rights/ land access 5<br />Lack of employment 5<br />Lack of education 5<br />Poor market access 4<br />Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4<br />Poor human health 4<br />Low regional cereal availability 4<br />Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4<br />In- and out- migration 4<br />Inflation 4<br />Social and political unrest or war 3<br />Sale of assets 3<br />Insufficient agricultural inputs 3<br />Government policies 3<br />TOTAL 80<br />33 % shock: 67% ongoing<br />Underlying drivers % <br />Poverty 21<br />Climate & env. Stressors 17<br />Social & political unrest 12<br />Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5<br />Government policies 5<br />In- and out- migration 4<br />Poor human health 4<br />Sale of assets 4<br />Low regional cereal avail. 4<br />Lack of education 3<br />Population pressure 3<br />TOTAL 81<br />
  35. 35. FINDINGS:<br /><ul><li>Food security driven by chronic, structural elements in the lives of the communities in the studies
  36. 36. Factors determining food ACCESS have more of an impact than those determining AVAILABILITY
  37. 37. Variations across communities & contexts: but similar processes:</li></ul>Cycle of intensifying vulnerability – even so-called coping strategies not necessarily sustainable <br />
  38. 38. FINDINGS:<br />Conflict, HIV and diversification strategies can have severely negative impact on household and community social capital resources<br />
  39. 39. 2. SHIFTS IN THE FOOD SECURITY CONTEXT<br />i) HIV/AIDS:<br /><ul><li>Increasing prevalence
  40. 40. Magnification of existing problems
  41. 41. HIV food insecurity
  42. 42. Deep impacts on human, social, political and cultural resources</li></li></ul><li>2. SHIFTS IN THE FOOD SECURITY CONTEXT<br />ii) CHANGING PROD. & CONSUMPTION PATTERNS:<br /><ul><li>Rising prices of cereal and other food crops
  43. 43. In recent years global cereal consumption been consistently less than production
  44. 44. Urbanisation
  45. 45. Increased demand high value products
  46. 46. Shift to biofuels
  47. 47. Increasing transport costs
  48. 48. High transaction costs in southern Africa for production and export</li></li></ul><li>2. SHIFTS IN THE FOOD SECURITY CONTEXT<br />iii) CLIMATE CHANGE:<br /><ul><li>Considerable spatial variation in impacts, but consensus that this is going to pose tremendous threats to food security in the region</li></li></ul><li>FOOD ACCESS<br />e.g.<br /><ul><li>Agricultural & vegetation zones - incomes and jobs
  49. 49. Human health & ability to work
  50. 50. Changes to livelihoods, food systems & development processes </li></ul>FOOD AVAILABILITY<br />e.g.<br /><ul><li>Crop yields
  51. 51. Environmental feedbacks (e.g. use of marginal lands influencing micro climates)</li></ul>Climate change and food security<br />NUTRIENT ACCESS<br />e.g.<br /><ul><li>Direct effect on the nutrient content of foods
  52. 52. Direct effect on human health and thus ability to absorb nutrients</li></li></ul><li>3. KEY ISSUES FROM EXPERIENCE<br />SOME THOUGHTS ON VULNERABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION:<br /><ul><li>Concepts of vulnerability and resilience increasingly popular
  53. 53. Vulnerability = exposure and sensitivity to livelihood shocks and stressors
  54. 54. Vulnerability mapping – Umkhanyakude case study
  55. 55. Useful in conceptualising a ‘development first’ approach to climate change adaptation </li></li></ul><li>Climate change<br />+<br />Development <br />challenges<br />HIV, Malaria, Poverty<br />FOOD SECURITY & WELLBEING<br />HUNGER & VULNERABLITY<br />
  56. 56.
  57. 57. Indicators<br />Components of the UVI<br />Clinics (15%)<br />Interconnectivity (20%)<br />Schools (15%)<br />Education (50%)<br />Road access (20%)<br />Poverty (50%)<br />Economic wellbeing (25%) <br />Employment (50%)<br />Malnutrition (10%)<br />Health and security (25%) <br />Sanitation (10%)<br />Access to potable water (20%)<br />Water-borne disease risk (20%)<br />Orphans (20%)<br />Informal housing (20%)<br />Age distribution (60%)<br />Demographic structure (20%) <br />Gender ratio (40%)<br />Employment agric sector (50%)<br />Natural resource dependence (10%) <br />Rural population (50%)<br />
  58. 58. Give us some insight into possible interactions <br />between underlying development-related issues <br />and ‘superimposed’ factors such as climate change<br />
  59. 59. <ul><li>Maps still leave us with underlying institutional and social capital related issues which cannot be depicted</li></ul>BUT<br />
  60. 60. OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS: Experience of 20 food security experts in South Africa <br /><ul><li>Economic growth, but increasing poverty ‘gap’
  61. 61. Increasing food insecurity
  62. 62. Unemployment, food price increases, HIV/AIDS, poor quality diets, adverse environmental conditions and poverty
  63. 63. Decreasing desire and/or ability to engage in small holder agriculture
  64. 64. Importance of social security system for those that cannot access employment opportunities</li></li></ul><li>OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS - RECOMMENDATIONS<br /><ul><li>Range of complimentary strategies loosely described as agrarian reform:
  65. 65. opportunities to diversify their local livelihood strategies;
  66. 66. access to land, water and other natural resources;
  67. 67. access credit and extension services.
  68. 68. interventions to improve the nutritional situation
  69. 69. Continued bolstering of the social security system </li></li></ul><li><ul><li>A central focus was on opportunities and challenges associated with the country’s food security policy framework and its failure to fulfil its potential</li></li></ul><li>5. KEY MESSAGES LOOKING FORWARD<br /><ul><li>Food insecurity, particularly in the rural context, is strongly shaped by development issues, including household incomes
  70. 70. However, plenty of evidence suggests that social safety nets, such as cash transfers, have a valuable role to play
  71. 71. Local level social capital has a profound effect on livelihood capability and food security</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>In developing world communities in fragile states, there is arguably a degeneration of ‘old’ forms of community social capital occurring concurrently with failures of ‘formal’ and state institutional mechanisms.
  72. 72. Policy and higher level institutional arrangements provide an enabling or disabling environment through numerous mechanisms</li></li></ul><li>6. QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER<br /><ul><li>How do we think of small holder agriculture in the context of changing food systems?
  73. 73. How do we think of small holder agriculture in the context of changing livelihoods and sometimes changing expectations?
  74. 74. How do we think of small holder agriculture in a way that integrates multiple livelihood dimensions and long term development-based adaptation options?</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>How can we support the development of supportive social capital and institutions?
  75. 75. How can we better collaborate with existing efforts for faster and greater impact?
  76. 76. Adaptation work – e.g. CCAA, OXFAM
  77. 77. Social transfers – e.g. RHVP, UN and Partners Alliance
  78. 78. Agricultural policy – e.g. CAADP
  79. 79. ..many others</li></li></ul><li>

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