Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”

Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert
THE FUTURE OF PASTORALISM IN AFRICA
International conference to debate research findings and policy options, Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011

Pastoralists and climate risk
OromiyaRegion, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens

Current climate variability
Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.

Climate variability, Niger

Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality
Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya
Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya

Management strategies for climate risk
PHOTO HERE of Ndulenge

Climate Change
Image of the Future

GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B). IPCC, 2007

Coefficient of variation (%) of the change in length of growing period for an ensemble of 14 GCMs

Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event
Ericksen et al, 2011

Unpublished IRLI analysis

East Africa:
Simulated plant funtional types:
(top) 20th century
(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model)
Doherty et al 2009

Implications for herds, livelihoods

Thank you…
Photo: P. Little 2011

Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”

by ILRI

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