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Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
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Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”

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Presentation by P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert to 'The Future of Pastoralism in Africa: International Conference to Debate Research Findings …

Presentation by P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert to 'The Future of Pastoralism in Africa: International Conference to Debate Research Findings and Policy Options', Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011

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  • Points: explain NDVI; high variability; cyclical nature (ENSO); point out events.
  • Zermou much drier than Fakara; can also see droughts.IMPLICATIONS: high heterogeneity; soils also make difference
  • Points: Kajiado dynamicsLaikpia dynamics and reasons for possible difference
  • Mobility and markets, but host of other factors mediate.Also changing herd composition
  • Points: IPCC, GCM downscaling; three impacts: temperature, change in precip, more CO2.
  • Herd dynamics models: droughts every 5 years fine; every 3 drives density lower;Livelihoods: ?? Croppers to livestock keepers?How restricted are pastoral options?
  • Transcript

    • 1. Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”<br />P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert<br />THE FUTURE OF PASTORALISM IN AFRICA<br />International conference to debate research findings and policy options, Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011<br />
    • 2. Pastoralists and climate risk<br />OromiyaRegion, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens<br />
    • 3. Current climate variability<br />Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.<br />
    • 4. Climate variability, Niger<br />
    • 5. Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality<br />Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya<br />Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya<br />
    • 6. Management strategies for climate risk<br />PHOTO HERE of Ndulenge<br />
    • 7. Climate Change<br />Image of the Future<br />
    • 8. GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B). IPCC, 2007<br />
    • 9. Coefficient of variation (%) of the change in length of growing period for an ensemble of 14 GCMs <br />
    • 10. Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event<br />Ericksen et al, 2011<br />
    • 11.
    • 12. Unpublished IRLI analysis<br />
    • 13. East Africa:<br />Simulated plant funtional types:<br />(top) 20th century<br />(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model)<br />Doherty et al 2009<br />
    • 14. Implications for herds, livelihoods<br />
    • 15. Thank you… <br />Photo: P. Little 2011<br />

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