Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”<br />P. Ericksen, J. d...
Pastoralists and climate risk<br />OromiyaRegion, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens<br />
Current climate variability<br />Figure 1:  Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kaj...
Climate variability, Niger<br />
Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality<br />Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya<br />Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya<br />
Management strategies for climate risk<br />PHOTO HERE of Ndulenge<br />
Climate Change<br />Image of the Future<br />
GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B).  IPCC, 2007<br />
Coefficient of variation (%) of the change in length of growing period for an ensemble of 14 GCMs <br />
Climate change exposure:  changes in rain per rainfall event<br />Ericksen et al, 2011<br />
Unpublished IRLI analysis<br />
East Africa:<br />Simulated plant funtional types:<br />(top) 20th century<br />(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one clim...
Implications for herds, livelihoods<br />
Thank you…  <br />Photo:  P. Little 2011<br />
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”

1,901
-1

Published on

Presentation by P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert to 'The Future of Pastoralism in Africa: International Conference to Debate Research Findings and Policy Options', Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,901
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
33
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Points: explain NDVI; high variability; cyclical nature (ENSO); point out events.
  • Zermou much drier than Fakara; can also see droughts.IMPLICATIONS: high heterogeneity; soils also make difference
  • Points: Kajiado dynamicsLaikpia dynamics and reasons for possible difference
  • Mobility and markets, but host of other factors mediate.Also changing herd composition
  • Points: IPCC, GCM downscaling; three impacts: temperature, change in precip, more CO2.
  • Herd dynamics models: droughts every 5 years fine; every 3 drives density lower;Livelihoods: ?? Croppers to livestock keepers?How restricted are pastoral options?
  • Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”

    1. 1. Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”<br />P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert<br />THE FUTURE OF PASTORALISM IN AFRICA<br />International conference to debate research findings and policy options, Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011<br />
    2. 2. Pastoralists and climate risk<br />OromiyaRegion, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens<br />
    3. 3. Current climate variability<br />Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.<br />
    4. 4. Climate variability, Niger<br />
    5. 5. Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality<br />Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya<br />Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya<br />
    6. 6. Management strategies for climate risk<br />PHOTO HERE of Ndulenge<br />
    7. 7. Climate Change<br />Image of the Future<br />
    8. 8. GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B). IPCC, 2007<br />
    9. 9. Coefficient of variation (%) of the change in length of growing period for an ensemble of 14 GCMs <br />
    10. 10. Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event<br />Ericksen et al, 2011<br />
    11. 11.
    12. 12. Unpublished IRLI analysis<br />
    13. 13. East Africa:<br />Simulated plant funtional types:<br />(top) 20th century<br />(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model)<br />Doherty et al 2009<br />
    14. 14. Implications for herds, livelihoods<br />
    15. 15. Thank you… <br />Photo: P. Little 2011<br />
    1. A particular slide catching your eye?

      Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

    ×