Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”

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Presentation by P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert to 'The Future of Pastoralism in Africa: International Conference to Debate Research Findings …

Presentation by P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert to 'The Future of Pastoralism in Africa: International Conference to Debate Research Findings and Policy Options', Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011

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  • Points: explain NDVI; high variability; cyclical nature (ENSO); point out events.
  • Zermou much drier than Fakara; can also see droughts.IMPLICATIONS: high heterogeneity; soils also make difference
  • Points: Kajiado dynamicsLaikpia dynamics and reasons for possible difference
  • Mobility and markets, but host of other factors mediate.Also changing herd composition
  • Points: IPCC, GCM downscaling; three impacts: temperature, change in precip, more CO2.
  • Herd dynamics models: droughts every 5 years fine; every 3 drives density lower;Livelihoods: ?? Croppers to livestock keepers?How restricted are pastoral options?

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  • 1. Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
    P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert
    THE FUTURE OF PASTORALISM IN AFRICA
    International conference to debate research findings and policy options, Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011
  • 2. Pastoralists and climate risk
    OromiyaRegion, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens
  • 3. Current climate variability
    Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.
  • 4. Climate variability, Niger
  • 5. Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality
    Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya
    Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya
  • 6. Management strategies for climate risk
    PHOTO HERE of Ndulenge
  • 7. Climate Change
    Image of the Future
  • 8. GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B). IPCC, 2007
  • 9. Coefficient of variation (%) of the change in length of growing period for an ensemble of 14 GCMs
  • 10. Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event
    Ericksen et al, 2011
  • 11.
  • 12. Unpublished IRLI analysis
  • 13. East Africa:
    Simulated plant funtional types:
    (top) 20th century
    (bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model)
    Doherty et al 2009
  • 14. Implications for herds, livelihoods
  • 15. Thank you…
    Photo: P. Little 2011