Climate change adaptation in northern Ethiopia

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Presented by Polly Ericksen at the Stakeholders’ Workshop on Enhancing Communities’ Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Induced Water Scarcity in Kabe Watershed, South Wollo Zone, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia, 24-25 November 2011.

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  • Points: IPCC, GCM downscaling; three impacts: temperature, change in precip, more CO2.
  • Climate change adaptation in northern Ethiopia

    1. 1. Climate Change Adaptation in Northern Ethiopia Polly Ericksen (ILRI)Stakeholders’ Workshop on Enhancing Communities’ Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Induced Water Scarcity in Kabe Watershed, South Wollo Zone Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia, 24-25 November 2011
    2. 2. Climate variability already a constant• East Africa characterized by high CV rainfall annually and seasonally• Evidence in N. Ethiopia farmers abandoning belg crops• Droughts and water stress affect both livestock and crops• Bi-modal distribution means seasonal distribution more important than annual averages
    3. 3. Recent Climate Trends in East AfricaTemperature• Mean annual temperature increased by 1.0°C since 1960 • Most rapid in March-May (0.29°C per decade) • Slowest in June-September (0.19°C per decade)• Increasing frequency of hot days, and more frequent hot nights • Number of ‘hot’ days per year increased by since 1960 (especially in March-May) • Number of ‘hot’ nights per year increased especially in September- NovemberRainfall• Met station data show no statistically significant trends since 1960• More rainfall occurring in heavy events
    4. 4. Climate ChangeImage ofthe Future
    5. 5. Climate Change Scenarios
    6. 6. Downscaling GCMs for impact / exposure analysis• Use ensembles of “equally-likely” combinations of climate model +emissions scenario  mean response and s.e. of response• Downscale spatially, from 2° lat-long grids to a more usefulresolution (e.g. 9-km grids)• Downscale temporally from long-term climatology to characteristicdaily weather data Use MarkSim as a GCM downscaler: difference interpolation + stochastic downscaling + weather typing  Generate exposure indicators based on daily data
    7. 7. Future Climate Trends in East AfricaDifferent climate models project different trendsTemperature• Mean annual temperature may increase 1.0 - 2.8°C by the 2060s, and 1.3 -5.5°C by the 2090s• Models agree on increases in frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights• Models agree on decreases in frequency of ‘cold’ days and nights (theseessentially disappear by the 2090s)Precipitation• Most models indicate increases in annual rainfall in northern part of EA(up to 48% by the 2090s), and more in heavy events• Projected increases largest in October-December (up to 49 m per month)but this depends upon El Niño. Possible drying in June to August.Changes in variability• Variability projected to increase, butare few details• Wide disagreement in projected changes in El Niño events (and henceOND)
    8. 8. Changes in maximum temperature
    9. 9. Changes in growing periods
    10. 10. Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall eventEricksen et al, 2011
    11. 11. Adaptation to climate change• More than just buffering against vulnerability• Shifting strategies in face of changes (with no precedent) but continuing to develop• Climate “smart” agriculture – Resilience to shocks – Greater resource use efficiency• Also, avoidance of negative feedbacks or “mal- adaptation”, including increased inequity
    12. 12. Adaptive capacity• More forward looking and pro-active than coping• Ability to change or reorganize strategies to diminish risk and prepare for new ones• Depends upon – Resources and ability to access and use them – Removal of external constraints to adapt – Free flow of information
    13. 13. Adaptation research priorities• What are people’s NEEDS for rainfall to support their livelihoods?• What innovations can we support NOW?• Support “no regrets” options• Constraints on adaptive capacity.. E.g. • Lack of safety nets • Markets • Land tenure• SCENARIOS as a planning tool
    14. 14. SCENARIO STORY LINES Millennium Ecosystem Assessment World Development Globalization RegionalizationEnvironmental Management Reactive Global Orchestration Order from Strength Proactive TechnoGarden Adapting Mosaic Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)

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