0
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
An analysis of beef market liberalization in...
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Smallholder Cattle Producers In Botswana
• C...
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Beef in Botswana: Marketing & Profitability
...
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Modeling Approach
• We present a holistic qu...
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Research questions
• To what extent will the...
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Value Chain Actors & Market Channels
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Production & Price settings
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
The constructed value chain model was used
t...
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Intervention scenarios
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Intervention scenarios
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Total cattle population
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Adult Cattle Price
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Live weaner price
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
VC actors financial performance under
tested...
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Conclusion
• Removing BMC’s monopoly without...
Norwegian Institute
of International
Affairs
Norsk
Utenrikspolitisk
Institutt
Thank you…
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An analysis of beef market liberalization in Botswana: A quantitative value chain approach

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Presentation by Kanar Hamza, Karl M. Rich, A. Derek Baker, Sirak Bahta, and Hikuepi Katjiuongua at the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA) annual meeting, Cape Town, South Africa, 16-17 June 2014.

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Transcript of "An analysis of beef market liberalization in Botswana: A quantitative value chain approach"

  1. 1. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt An analysis of beef market liberalization in Botswana: A quantitative value chain approach Kanar Hamza, Karl M. Rich, A. Derek Baker, Sirak Bahta, and Hikuepi Katjiuongua Norwegian Institute of International Affairs International Livestock Research Institute University of New England Presented at the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA) annual meeting, Cape Town, South Africa 16-17 June 2014
  2. 2. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Smallholder Cattle Producers In Botswana • Cattle provide draught power, meat, milk, as well as new cattle through reproduction. • Cattle can be easily converted to cash when needed. About 3% of Botswana’s GDP is based on cattle exports, and cattle accounts for most of the agricultural share of GDP. • Cattle also provide significant contributions in terms of providing employment opportunities for rural households in Botswana, especially in communal lands were cattle production is the main source of income. (Mahabile et al. 2005; BEDIA, 2010).
  3. 3. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Beef in Botswana: Marketing & Profitability • The topic of beef export market liberalization in Botswana through the removal of the Botswana Meat Commission’s (BMC) monopoly is hotly debated among policy makers and relevant value chain actors (BOPA, 2011; BOPA, 2013). • Currently, 80% of Botswana’s beef exports go to the EEA and South Africa (von Engelen et al. 2012) • Reforms in some guise are urgently needed.
  4. 4. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Modeling Approach • We present a holistic quantitative value chain model of the beef sector in Botswana to evaluate the effects of such structural changes on all value chain actors. • Methodologically, we used a system dynamics modeling approach to develop a dynamic value chain framework that highlights the changes and the performance of the beef value chain among involved actors over time (Rich et al. 2011).
  5. 5. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Research questions • To what extent will the removal of BMC’s monopoly over exports affect different beef value chain actors? • What are the implications of removing BMC’s monopoly on its profitability?
  6. 6. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Value Chain Actors & Market Channels
  7. 7. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Production & Price settings
  8. 8. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt The constructed value chain model was used to run four scenarios: (1) A baseline; (2) Removal of BMC’s monopoly (particularly, allowing the sale of live weaners to South Africa by producers); (3) Control of an FMD outbreak maintaining prevailing BMC policy; and (4) Combined market liberalization (scenario 2) with control of FMD outbreaks (scenario 3).
  9. 9. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Intervention scenarios
  10. 10. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Intervention scenarios
  11. 11. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Total cattle population
  12. 12. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Adult Cattle Price
  13. 13. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Live weaner price
  14. 14. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt VC actors financial performance under tested scenarios Scenarios Producers Feedlots BMC Traditional urban and rural butchers Modern butchers and retailers Market liberalization only 36% -3% -3% No change No change FMD control only 101% 21% 42% 10% 1% Market liberalization and FMD control 172% 28% 36% 10% 1%
  15. 15. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Conclusion • Removing BMC’s monopoly without animal disease control generates no significant benefits to value chain actors. • However, implementing market liberalization policy reforms combined with animal disease control leads to significant gains to all value chain actors (a win-win result). • This suggests a need to couch market reforms alongside public investments in the livestock sector.
  16. 16. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt Thank you…
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