Why should we worry? The Future of Ageing

574 views
501 views

Published on

Presentation by David Sinclair at the British Geriatric Society conference in Belfast in April 2013 which explores the challenges and opportunities of an ageing society.

Published in: Sports, Technology
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
574
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
65
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
8
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Why should we worry? The Future of Ageing

  1. 1. Why should we worry?And why not.David Sinclair, International LongevityCentre – UK @ilcuk @sinclairda The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  2. 2. Who are we?The ILC-UK was establishedin 2000 to explore andaddress the impact of ourageing society on publicpolicyWe have a global reach with14 Members of the ILCGlobal Alliance.The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  3. 3. Who do we work with?/Declaration of interests The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  4. 4. Our focus is broad The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  5. 5. Why should we worry?5 reasons to worry – Oldest old – The cost of ageing – Isolation – Economic crisis – The squeezed middle agedBut opportunities – Prevention (Vaccination nutrition pa) – Housing – Working longer – Health developments and new technologyThe International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  6. 6. Growth in the number of oldest old The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  7. 7. How many centenarians are there? There are currently 11,800 people in the UK who are currently at least 100 (DWP) There are fewer than 100 people who are aged more than 110. (DWP) In 1911 there were just 100 Centenarians living in England & Wales Growth has been about 7% p/a http://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/5832 685007/sizes/z/in/photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  8. 8. Number of people currently alive who can expectto see their 100th birthday, by age in 2010 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  9. 9. Life is not easy for the oldest old Three quarters of the oldest old suffer from limiting longstanding illnesses, and one out of three perceive themselves as being in poor health. (Tomassini C, 2005) http://www.flickr.com/photos/pondspider/4170990 903/sizes/m/in/photostream/ “almost 50% of men and women aged 80-84 report severe limitations in activities” (IFS, 2010) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  10. 10. And many find it difficult to do day to day tasksSixty per-cent of over 90s reportdifficulties shopping for groceries,almost a quarter report difficultiesmaking telephone calls and 35% http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkchocola te/3039589789/sizes/m/in/photostream/report difficulties managingmoney. (Sinclair, 2010/ELSA) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  11. 11. A relatively high proportion live aloneOf those living in privatehouseholds, four in tenvery old men and sevenout of ten very oldwomen live alone. Oneout of five very oldpeople live in communalestablishments.(Tomassini C, 2005). http://www.flickr.com/photos/sbeebe/5154169795/si zes/m/in/photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  12. 12. Most centenarians consult their GP98% of centenariansand nearcentenariansconsulted a GP andreceived prescriptionmedicine during followup. (Roughead, http://www.flickr.com/photos/rwjensen/2288339230/sizes/m/in/photostream/Kalisch et al, 2010) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  13. 13. Centenarians do use drugs heavilyA study of 602 centenarians inItaly found that a very highproportion of this age group wereusers of drugs. 5% no drugs. 13% one drug a day 16% took 2 drugs per day 65% took three drugs a day 5.5% more than 3 drugs a day. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  14. 14. Some evidence of longer hospital staysCentenarians who had suffered from a hip fracturebetween 2000 and 2007 compared to a randomlyselected control group of 50 hip fracture patientsaged between 75 and 85. “the mean stay in acuteorthopaedic wards for centenarians was 20.7 daysand for the control group was 14.9 days”.The longer acute hospital stay in the centenariancohort would amount to a mean extra cost of £ 2511per patient. (Verma et al) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  15. 15. Depression “23% of those aged 85 and over had levels of depressive symptoms indicative of clinical relevance” “Almost 13% of men and women aged 80 and over had high levels of depressive symptoms in 2008-09 http://www.flickr.com/photos/junglearctic/300 but not in 2002-03” (IFS, 2010) 2442666/sizes/m/in/photostream/ ELSAThe International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  16. 16. Falls 60% of interviewees aged over 90 had had a fall and that of these, 4 in five were unable to get up after at least one fall and almost a third had lain on the ground for an hour or more. Call alarms were widely available but not used.(Fleming and Brayne, 2008; Cambridge City over 75- Cohor. BMJ) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  17. 17. Poverty is a very real challenge There is evidence that the oldest old (aged 85 and over) are, as a group, at greater risk of poverty than younger older people (aged 65-85) Up to 10% of the oldest old have total net wealth of £3,000 or less. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  18. 18. Dementia among centenariansThe prevalence ofdementia-freesurvival past 100years of age variedbetween 0 and 50percent.” http://www.flickr.com/photos/thousandshipz/4679235/sizes/m/in/photostream/The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  19. 19. The oldest old remain the most excluded Almost 38% of those aged 85 or older faced some kind of social exclusion, an encouraging decline of 10% from the 2002 levels As people age, they are more likely http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkchocola to become more socially excluded te/3039589789/sizes/m/in/photostream/ than less Almost two-fifths (38%) of those aged 85 and older were excluded from two or more domains of exclusion in 2008 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  20. 20. Quality of Life falls with age The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  21. 21. Cost of ageingIn the UK: age-relatedspending is projected torise from an annual cost of21.3% to 26.3% of GDPbetween 2016/17 and2061/62, a rise of 5% ofGDP (equivalent to a riseof around £79bn intoday’s money). The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  22. 22. Healthcare costs• In the UK: spending on health care is projected to see the largest rise of all elements of age-related spending, rising from an annual cost of 6.8% to 9.1% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of 2.3% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £36bn in today’s money).• In the EU: spending on health care is projected to rise from an annual cost of 7.1% to 8.3% of GDP between 2010 and 2060, a rise of 1.1% of GDP.• Globally: it is difficult to project the costs of health care because of the lack of data from developing countries. But evidence of growing numbers with long term conditions. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  23. 23. Spending on health care will see the greatestincrease of all age-related spending over thenext 50 years Projected health care spending as a proportion of GDP The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  24. 24. Long term care costs• In the UK: spending on long term care is projected to rise between 2016/17 and 2061/62 from an annual cost of 1.1% to 2% of GDP, a rise of 0.9% of GDP59 (equivalent to a rise of around £14bn in today’s money).• EU spending on long term care is projected to rise from an annual cost of 1.8% to 3.4% of GDP between 2010 and 2060 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  25. 25. Increasingly living alone - isolation50 per cent of the1960s cohort will beliving alone at age 75compared with 37 percent for the 1916-1920cohort and 41 per cent (Evandrou &of the 1940s cohort Falkingham, 2000). The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  26. 26. Many live independently Substantial numbers of centenarians and nonagenarians continue to live independently in the community, either alone or with family members. 8% of those aged 90 and over were living in privately rented accommodation and 30% in socially rented accommodation. 2009 Understanding Society The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  27. 27. Living together is good for us Those who moved from living alone to living as part of a couple (with no children) exhibited a 68% fall in the odds of becoming multiply excluded between 2002 and 2008 compared to those who stayed living alone; http://www.flickr.com/ Those who moved from being resident in a photos/anabadili/296 3913137/sizes/m/in/p couple household to living alone were over three hotostream/ times more likely to become multiply excluded. For this age group (50+), becoming a widow is one of the most common reasons for starting to live alone. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  28. 28. Impact of the global economic downturnEU GDP growth is expected to be 1.4% per year between2010 and 2060 compared to 2.5% for the 10 years 1997-2006.More difficult for the state to pay for longevity:Employment and productivity falling; falling tax intake; moredifficult to meet debt obligations; difficulties in fundingpublic pension systemsAnd for the individual: Unemployment, reductions inwages, or reductions in hours worked, make it more difficultto save adequately for retirement; Falls in value of pensionpots; Price inflation has been high. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  29. 29. The squeezed middle agePeople in their fifties increasinglyexcluded from society The number of people aged 50 plus being socially excluded from decent housing, public transport and local amenities has risen sharply Over one in six people in their fifties (18%) were socially excluded in two of more areas of their life – up from 13 per cent in 2002.The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  30. 30. Britons ageing quicker than their parents The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  31. 31. Will the baby boomers demand change?“They have fewer ties to family responsibilities...With their homes paid for their major housingconcern is for property taxes and repairs... Beingessentially free from obligation, they may spendtheir income and assets as they wish. Here is apotential market, therefore for those marketerswho wish to appeal to it. It is a new market,almost unrecognised which must be developedwith care as it depends upon the changing roleof older persons in our society and therealisation that they are more free than theirpredecessors in the past century.” The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  32. 32. Will the baby boomers demand change?“They have fewer ties to family responsibilities...With their homes paid for their major housingconcern is for property taxes and repairs... Beingessentially free from obligation, they may spendtheir income and assets as they wish. Here is apotential market, therefore for those marketerswho wish to appeal to it. It is a new market,almost unrecognised which must be developedwith care as it depends upon the changing roleof older persons in our society and the Dodge,realisation that they are more free than theirpredecessors in the past century.” 1962 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  33. 33. Some OpportunitiesThe International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  34. 34. Dependency is not inevitableDependency is not inevitableand a ”considerableproportion of thecentenarians maintain a goodlevel of auto sufficiency for http://www.flickr.com/photos/driever/5525684658/sizes/ m/in/photostream/the basic performance of theeveryday life”. (Antonini et al,2008) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  35. 35. Some of the oldest old become more active The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  36. 36. A move to prevention is vital Prevention of ill health Physical Activity Smoking and alcohol consumption Nutrition Immunisation The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  37. 37. Getting housing right1. Extra care housing is a home for life2. Extra care translates into fewer falls3. Extra care is associated with a lower uptake of inpatient hospital beds The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  38. 38. And how can we make new housing andcommunities aspirational?The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  39. 39. Working longer – a solution?The longer that people spend in work, the longer theyhave to save for retirement and the shorter theirretirement will be, relative to their working life.A later average age of exit can also increase thenumber of people in work, relative to the number whoare retired, making it easier to fund pensions,benefits and health and care costs from currenttaxes. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  40. 40. We are working longer Labour market participation at older ages (ages 55 to 64) is expected to increase within the EU from around 50% to around 67% between 2010 and 2060. The average age of exit is also projected to increase from around 62 to around 64 within the EU and from around 64 to around 65 within the UK between 2010 and 2060. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  41. 41. Technology limited by imagination The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  42. 42. Fantastic developments in health I think there’ll be a cure for cancer one day. That we never thought we’d see…and Alzheimer’s. I would wish for a pill to cure everything… The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  43. 43. From patient/recipient to health consumer More confident consumers of health with raising expectations rather than patients More tests available over the counter Greater access to information about conditions Expectations to health become more focused on “fix it”, prevent it, cure it? Growth in health tourism The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  44. 44. Developments in genetics The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  45. 45. Possible technology innovations to 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Artificial Auto-pilot cars Digital mirrors VR windowsIntelligence entity Self clean houses passes A level Face recognition Computer controlled doors Individual pollution credits Nuclear hunger suppressant Prison countries Holographic TV fusion Smart Wave energy Artificial Intelligence bath Human =50% in UK Global ID causes redundancies memory card Active skin Invisibility enhancement Emotion control makeup cloak devices Bionic Olympics Brain downloads Virtual holidays Full voice Thought input Robocops recognition PCs mechanisms Hydrogen fuel Artificial brain widespread stations Viewers can choose Human memory film roles Circuits made downloads with bacteria Self drive cars Tooth Humanoid robots beat regeneration Global voting on Virtual displays national football team Listing of some issues Disposable individual DNA phones The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  46. 46. Google knows! Location Based Services The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  47. 47. Summary There is lots to worry about But there are opportunities What is the role for you?The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  48. 48. Many thanksDavid SinclairHead of Policy and ResearchInternational Longevity CentreDavidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk02073400440Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.

×