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The demographic implications of
Scottish independence
Population Patterns Seminar Series
Friday 2nd May 2014
This event is...
Welcome
Tim Ellis
Chief Executive
National Records of Scotland
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpa...
David Sinclair
Assistant Director, Policy and Communications
ILC-UK
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populat...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevi...
Richard Willets
Director of Longevity
Partnership
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns
Welcome by Partnership
Richard Willets
International Longevity Centre – 2 May 2014
Life expectancy trends in different countries
May 14
23
• Source: www.mortality.org
• In which pair of countries have tren...
Countries included in the analysis
May 14
24
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Franc...
The least similar pair of countries…
May 14
25
• Source: www.mortality.org
• Japan & Slovakia (least similar – 378th out o...
Similar, but not the most similar…
May 14
26
• Source: www.mortality.org
• Spain and Portugal (ranked 38th)
• Sweden and F...
The most similar pair of countries …
May 14
27
• Source: www.mortality.org
• England & Wales and Scotland
10
11
12
13
14
1...
Summary
May 14
28
• Source: www.mortality.org
• For males England & Wales and Scotland have the most similar
trend
• For f...
Thank you
May 14
29
Partnership is a trading style of the Partnership group of Companies, which includes; Partnership Life...
Kirsty MacLauchlan
Head of Demography
National Records of Scotland
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populati...
Implications of the referendum
on demographic change
Kirsty MacLachlan
Head of Demography
2 May 2014
• Recent changes in demography
• How might the referendum impact on
demography in the future?
– Population
– Life expectan...
How has Scotland’s population
changed over time?
An average Scot
In the late 1850s
– were called John Smith or Mary
Macdonald
– had a 1 in 7 chance of dying before
their f...
Estimated population of Scotland on
30 June 2013 was 5,327,700
An increase of 14,100 since mid-2012 - the highest ever rec...
Population Change 1953-2013
•Mid-2012 to Mid-2013: Natural change: +900 Net migration: +10,000
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20...
Scotland Performs Purpose Target
To match average European (EU15) population growth over the
period from 2007 to 2017
What are the factors
influencing changes in the
composition of the
population?
Fertility
Live births per 1,000 women, by age
0
50
100
150
200
250
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36...
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Births
Calendar Year
Births in Scotl...
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Births...
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Hungary
Romania
Poland
Latvia
Portugal
Germany
Spain
Croatia
Italy
Greece
Austria
CzechRepublic
Sl...
Life Expectancy
Average age at death, selected causes, Scotland, 1978-2012
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
1978 1981 1984 ...
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Years
MALE FEMALE
SCOTLAND
Least
deprived
Most
deprived
Ordered by l...
Migration
Rest of UK migration +7,900
An increase of 4,900 from the previous year
47,700 in-migrants, 39,800 out-migrants
-80
-60
-4...
Overseas migration +2,100
Net migration fell by 7,600. In-migration fell by 7,700
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1993...
Net migration
•Country of birth
7 per cent of people living in Scotland were born outside of the UK
increase of 3 percentage points sinc...
•Countries of birth outside of the UK
Growing ethnic diversity
2001 2011
•Proportion of people reported as belonging to minority ethnic group
•between 2001 and ...
European comparisons:
Proportion of foreign born population
ONS figures- UK migration
UK migration – main reason for
entering UK
Impact of
demography on
Households
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Year
Percentageofallhouseholds
1 person
2 people
3 people
...
Growth in households has slowed since
the start of the economic downturn
Annual increase in households, 2002-2012
0
2,000
...
• Numbers are increasing (though slower
than rest of UK and rest of the world)
• Life expectancy is increasing (at similar...
Implications of the referendum?
• Is fertility likely to increase,
decrease or stay the same?
• Is life expectancy likely ...
What is the projected
population?
Estimated population of Scotland,
actual and projected, 1952-2087
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1952 1967 19...
Key points: 2012-2022
• The population of Scotland is projected
to increase from an estimated 5.31
million to 5.52 million...
Scotland’s changing age distribution
300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
6...
There is a projected
increase of over
half a million
households over the
next 25 years.
Wide variety in
household growth
a...
•Variant projections
•High migration
•High life expectancy
•High fertility
•Low migration
•Low Life expectancy
• Low ferti...
Actual and projected total population, Scotland,
under the 2012-based principal and selected
variant projections, 1982-2087
Change in average (median) age 2012-2037 (variant projections )
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 203...
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
High
Population
High life
expectancy
High
migration
High fertility Principal Low fe...
Projected percentage of population over
75, selected European countries, 2035
Source: ONS (UK and constituent countries) a...
Summary
• Scotland’s population is likely to
continue to increase and age over
the next 25 years regardless of the
outcome...
Any questions?
Professor David Bell
Professor of Economics
University of Stirling
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populati...
Demographic Implications of Scottish Independence.
PROFESSOR DAVID BELL
DIVISION OF ECONOMICS
STIRLING MANAGEMENT SCHOOL
U...
There has been a substantial increase in the number
of states in the world in recent decades
• The number of sovereign sta...
Has the Union been bad for Scotland’s population?
Scotland’s Population/England’s Population 1600-2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2...
Two areas where demographics are making a
significant impact on the independence debate
• Migration
– Can an independent S...
Ageing
• Higher welfare costs?
• Shorter life expectancy in Scotland
• But fewer people of working age per pensioner
• Est...
Welfare Spending in Scotland 2011-12
Relative Costs of Benefits per Working Age Person
Scotland v Great Britain 2012-13
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Mater...
Differences in Costs of Pensioner Benefits Per
Working Age Person
£0
£1,000
£2,000
£3,000
£4,000
£5,000
£6,000
Expenditure...
Demographic Change
European old-age dependency ratios 2010
Source: Eurostat
Old-age Dependency Ratios 2040
Source: Eurostat
Ageing
• Costs to society – measure as share of GDP – depends
crucially on relative productivity of Scottish economy
• Pri...
Migration
What we know:
Net Migration to Scotland
Source: National Records of Scotland, 2013
*The broken line (2002 to 2011) shows e...
Wages and Proportion of Foreign
Born Residents (2012)
North East
Wales
Scotland
Northern
South West
North West
Yorkshire
E...
Further evidence: COMPAS public opinion research
October 2013; 4,200+ responses
98
• Scotland: more welcoming/less hostile...
Voting intentions and attitudes to migration
99
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Too low About right Too high Don't know
Yes...
A Separate Immigration Policy for Scotland
within the UK?
• Requires political consent from both levels of government
– Ac...
Conclusions
• Demographic arguments may favour a more open approach to
immigration in Scotland (whether independent or not...
Professor Carol Jagger
AXA Prof of Epidemiology of Ageing
Institute for Ageing and Health
Newcastle University
This event ...
Implications of Scotland’s
independence on healthy longevity
Carol Jagger
AXA Professor of Epidemiology of Ageing
Pia Woha...
Demographic challenge for Scotland
and rest of UK
• Inequalities in Disability-
free life expectancy (DFLE)
– Widening or ...
DFLE inequalities exceed those in LE and are widening
1991 2001 1991 2001
mean 77.5 79.2 62.5 62.4
0.10 76.5 77.3 60.3 59....
Where you live or how you live?
Which socio-economic factors explain
variation in DFLE in E&W?
DFLE at birth
Women
1991 2001
Univariable Multivariable Uni...
Ethnic composition 2011 census
75
80
85
90
95
100
ENGLAND SCOTLAND Aberdeen City Edinburgh, City of Glasgow City
Other Eth...
LE and DFLE at birth by ethnic group, 2001
♀ ♂
AsianWhite Mixed Black Other
Differences compared to White British
Wohland ...
Potential for extending working life UK*, men 2001
Average age at onset of
disability
Regions 65+ (N) <65 (N) <65 (%)
EE 4...
Need for care
 Critical (requires 24-hour care)
 Short-interval (requires help at
regular times daily)
 Long-interval (...
Who are the carers?
Born age 85 child born
child age when
parent 85
1921 2006 1947 59
1931 2016 1956 60
1941 2026 1965 61
...
Conclusions
• Inequalities in healthy ageing
– Between different ethnic groups
– Explained partly by unhealthy behaviours
...
Acknowledgements
Newcastle 85+ Study
funded by the Medical Research Council, Biotechnology and Biological
Sciences Researc...
Find out more
about healthy
life expectancy
REVES 2014
Edinburgh
28-30 May 2014
Implications of Scotland’s
independence on healthy longevity
Carol Jagger
(carol.jagger@ncl.ac.uk)
Pia Wohand
(pia.wohland...
The demographic implications of
Scottish independence
Population Patterns Seminar Series
Friday 2nd May 2014
This event is...
02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independence
02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independence
02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independence
02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independence
02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independence
02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independence
02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independence
02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independence
02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independence
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02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independence

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During 2014, ILC-UK, supported by the specialist insurance company, Partnership Assurance Group plc, is undertaking a series of events to explore the relationship between our changing demography and public policy.

The third event in the series explored the demographic implications of Scottish independence.

In 2014, Scotland will vote in an independence referendum which could significantly change its relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom. An independent Scotland would have a fully independent NHS, control a significant proportion of the North Sea oil reserves and will take on a percentage of the UK national debt.

An independent Scotland would also result in the UK having a new demographic makeup. There are currently a number of marked differences between the two countries which will be highlighted by the division. These include a 2.8 year gap in healthy life expectancy for men, as well as differences in overall life expectancy and mortality rates. Recent figures released by the ONS suggest that the future health of an independent Scotland may actually align with that of the UK. The number of children aged two to 15 either overweight or obese in Scotland is now equal to that of England (30%), and lower than Wales (36%), and Scottish men are significantly more active than their counterparts in both countries.

The seminar explored these differences, as well as how the demography of an independent Scotland may change over time, and what future Scottish Governments (with or without independence) may need to do to adapt to these demographic changes.

Scottish independence would have a number of age-related policy implications for both Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. The issue of Scotland’s ageing population has already entered political debate, with the SNP announcing that, if elected, they would make new pensioners £4.40 a month better off than in England, while also pledging to set up a commission looking at the state pension age. The Scottish government has also announced that benefits, tax credits and state pensions would continue to be paid from the first day of independence, but have not addressed how they will meet the challenge of moving schemes from one administration to another.

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Transcript of "02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independence"

  1. 1. The demographic implications of Scottish independence Population Patterns Seminar Series Friday 2nd May 2014 This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  2. 2. Welcome Tim Ellis Chief Executive National Records of Scotland This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  3. 3. David Sinclair Assistant Director, Policy and Communications ILC-UK This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  4. 4. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Demographic change in Scotland David Sinclair, International Longevity Centre – UK @ilcuk @sinclairda
  5. 5. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. ILC-UK Planning Tomorrow, Today  think tank  evidence based  policy focussed  balanced  independent  respected  experts  networked  international
  6. 6. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. We work with…
  7. 7. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Our focus is broad
  8. 8. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Percentage change in number of people of ‘working age’ 2013-2037
  9. 9. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  10. 10. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Fertility rates per 1,000 females by age group
  11. 11. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Percentage change in numbers in employment relative to 2012
  12. 12. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Employment rates by age band
  13. 13. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. At birth life expectancy by region (2008-10)
  14. 14. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Life expectancy by region 1981-2030
  15. 15. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Dependency ratio indexed to 2012
  16. 16. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Oil and Gas revenues
  17. 17. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.  Spending per person in Scotland is currently higher than in the UK, at £12,629 per person in 2011/12, compared with £11,381.  The Institute for Fiscal Studies has modelled what might happen to the government finances of an independent Scotland assuming that there is no policy change.  As a result of demographic trends and slowing oil revenues, the IFS forecast that public sector net debt in Scotland will exceed 100% of national income by 2033-34. By comparison, the UK which has some what more favourable demographics and is less reliant on revenues from fossil fuel, will see net debt to GDP fall to around 60% over the same time period.
  18. 18. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Public Sector net debt projections
  19. 19. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. So  By international standards, the challenges facing Scotland are not unique  But with no policy change, Scotland faces arguably bigger demographic challenges than the UK as a whole.  So how should Scottish policymakers (irrespective of the independence vote) respond?
  20. 20. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. David Sinclair Assistant Director, Policy & Communications International Longevity Centre Davidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk 02073400440 Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda
  21. 21. Richard Willets Director of Longevity Partnership This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  22. 22. Welcome by Partnership Richard Willets International Longevity Centre – 2 May 2014
  23. 23. Life expectancy trends in different countries May 14 23 • Source: www.mortality.org • In which pair of countries have trends in life expectancy been most similar? • Used figures taken from the Human Mortality Database* for OECD countries covering a 50-year period (1960 to 2009) • Considered life expectancy at age 65 (for males and females separately) • Compared figures in 28 countries (i.e. 378 pairs) • Calculated correlation coefficient between life expectancy figures for each pair of countries
  24. 24. Countries included in the analysis May 14 24 Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Hungary Israel Ireland Italy Japan Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland USA New Zealand England & Wales Scotland Northern Ireland
  25. 25. The least similar pair of countries… May 14 25 • Source: www.mortality.org • Japan & Slovakia (least similar – 378th out of 378) 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Japan Slovaki a Male life expectanc y at age 65
  26. 26. Similar, but not the most similar… May 14 26 • Source: www.mortality.org • Spain and Portugal (ranked 38th) • Sweden and Finland (ranked 67th) • France and Belgium (ranked 53rd) • Australia and New Zealand (ranked 73rd) • USA and Canada (ranked 34th) • Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (ranked 106th)
  27. 27. The most similar pair of countries … May 14 27 • Source: www.mortality.org • England & Wales and Scotland 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 England & Wales Scotland Male life expectanc y at age 65
  28. 28. Summary May 14 28 • Source: www.mortality.org • For males England & Wales and Scotland have the most similar trend • For females the same pair are ranked 8th of 378 • Interesting to see whether trends will be as similar over next 50 years…
  29. 29. Thank you May 14 29 Partnership is a trading style of the Partnership group of Companies, which includes; Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited (registered in England and Wales No. 05465261), and Partnership Home Loans Limited (registered in England and Wales No. 05108846). Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Partnership Home Loans Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The registered office for both companies is Heron Tower, 5th Floor, 110 Bishopsgate, London, EC2N 4AY.
  30. 30. Kirsty MacLauchlan Head of Demography National Records of Scotland This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  31. 31. Implications of the referendum on demographic change Kirsty MacLachlan Head of Demography 2 May 2014
  32. 32. • Recent changes in demography • How might the referendum impact on demography in the future? – Population – Life expectancy – Fertility – Migration – Age structure Overview
  33. 33. How has Scotland’s population changed over time?
  34. 34. An average Scot In the late 1850s – were called John Smith or Mary Macdonald – had a 1 in 7 chance of dying before their first birthday – lived almost 2 to a room, with a 1 in 3 chance of sharing the room with the whole family – got married at 27 (John) and 25 (Mary) – had a 1 in 3 chance of being married in their 20s – had a life expectancy at birth of 40 (John) and 44 (Mary) At end of the 20th Century – were called Lewis Smith or Emma Brown – had a 1 in 200 chance of dying before their first birthday – each had 2 rooms to live in – got married at 32 (Lewis) and 29 (Emma) – had a 1 in 7 chance of being married in their 20s – had a life expectancy at birth of 76 (Lewis) or 81 (Emma)
  35. 35. Estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2013 was 5,327,700 An increase of 14,100 since mid-2012 - the highest ever recorded 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 Population(thousands) Year
  36. 36. Population Change 1953-2013 •Mid-2012 to Mid-2013: Natural change: +900 Net migration: +10,000 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 Persons(thousands) Year Natural change (births - deaths) Net migration
  37. 37. Scotland Performs Purpose Target To match average European (EU15) population growth over the period from 2007 to 2017
  38. 38. What are the factors influencing changes in the composition of the population?
  39. 39. Fertility
  40. 40. Live births per 1,000 women, by age 0 50 100 150 200 250 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Age of mother Fertilityrate 1951 1964 1977 1991 2012 1 Rate for age 15 includes births at younger ages and for age 44 for births at older ages
  41. 41. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Births Calendar Year Births in Scotland to mothers born outside the UK, by mother’s country of birth, 2002 to 2012 Other EU pre-2004 EU Accession States Commonwealth Other countries
  42. 42. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Births Calendar Year Births in Scotland, by mother's country of birth, 2002 to 2012 Scotland Rest Of the UK Outside UK
  43. 43. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Hungary Romania Poland Latvia Portugal Germany Spain Croatia Italy Greece Austria CzechRepublic Slovakia Bulgaria Estonia Slovenia EuropeanUnion(27countries) SCOTLAND Denmark Lithuania Netherlands Belgium Finland Norway Sweden Wales UnitedKingdom England France Iceland Ireland NorthernIreland Total Fertility Rate, selected European countries, 2011
  44. 44. Life Expectancy
  45. 45. Average age at death, selected causes, Scotland, 1978-2012 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2012 Year Averageage All causes Stroke Ischaemic heart disease Cancer
  46. 46. 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Years MALE FEMALE SCOTLAND Least deprived Most deprived Ordered by lowest male life expectancy to highest Life Expectancy at birth, 2008-2010
  47. 47. Migration
  48. 48. Rest of UK migration +7,900 An increase of 4,900 from the previous year 47,700 in-migrants, 39,800 out-migrants -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Persons(thousands) Year Out In Net
  49. 49. Overseas migration +2,100 Net migration fell by 7,600. In-migration fell by 7,700 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Persons(thousands) Year Out to overseas In from overseas Net
  50. 50. Net migration
  51. 51. •Country of birth 7 per cent of people living in Scotland were born outside of the UK increase of 3 percentage points since 2001 55 per cent of those born outside of the UK arrived between 2004 and 2011 69 per cent were of working age (aged 16-64) when they arrived 38 per cent were in their twenties In Aberdeen City, 1 person in 6 was born outside of the UK compared with East Ayrshire where 1 person in 44 was born abroad
  52. 52. •Countries of birth outside of the UK
  53. 53. Growing ethnic diversity 2001 2011 •Proportion of people reported as belonging to minority ethnic group •between 2001 and 2011, Scotland
  54. 54. European comparisons: Proportion of foreign born population
  55. 55. ONS figures- UK migration
  56. 56. UK migration – main reason for entering UK
  57. 57. Impact of demography on Households
  58. 58. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Year Percentageofallhouseholds 1 person 2 people 3 people 4 people 5+ people More people are living in smaller households
  59. 59. Growth in households has slowed since the start of the economic downturn Annual increase in households, 2002-2012 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year Annualincreaseinhouseholds Start of global economic downturn Source: Household estimates based on Council Tax data
  60. 60. • Numbers are increasing (though slower than rest of UK and rest of the world) • Life expectancy is increasing (at similar rate to rest of UK and EU) • Fertility dropped in the 70s (and is now lower than the rest of the UK but still higher than the EU average) • Greater urbanisation (and move from West to East)
  61. 61. Implications of the referendum? • Is fertility likely to increase, decrease or stay the same? • Is life expectancy likely to increase, decrease or stay the same? • Is migration likely to increase, decrease or stay the same?
  62. 62. What is the projected population?
  63. 63. Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1952-2087 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1952 1967 1982 1997 2012 2027 2042 2057 2072 2087 Year Persons('000s) Projected Footnotes 1) Continuous line shows final population estimates and the broken line (2002 to 2010) shows those years which will be rebased using information from the 2011 Census. 2) 2012 based projection.
  64. 64. Key points: 2012-2022 • The population of Scotland is projected to increase from an estimated 5.31 million to 5.52 million over the ten years • Increase in population – natural increase : 28% – net migration : 72%
  65. 65. Scotland’s changing age distribution 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90+ Age(5yearagegroups) Population Female Male 1861 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90+ Age(5yearagegroups) Population Female Male 1961
  66. 66. There is a projected increase of over half a million households over the next 25 years. Wide variety in household growth across the country. Projected percentage change in households, 2010-2035
  67. 67. •Variant projections •High migration •High life expectancy •High fertility •Low migration •Low Life expectancy • Low fertility • High population • Low population •Single component variants •Combination component variants •Zero net migration •Special component variant
  68. 68. Actual and projected total population, Scotland, under the 2012-based principal and selected variant projections, 1982-2087
  69. 69. Change in average (median) age 2012-2037 (variant projections ) 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Year Ageinyears Natural change Low population Low fertility Low migration High life expectancy Principal Low life expectancy High migration High fertility High population
  70. 70. -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% High Population High life expectancy High migration High fertility Principal Low fertility Natural change only Low migration Low life expectancy Low Population Variant Percentagechange 0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+ Percentage change in age structure 2012-2037 variant projections
  71. 71. Projected percentage of population over 75, selected European countries, 2035 Source: ONS (UK and constituent countries) and Eurostat. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Ireland Luxembourg Cyprus Slovakia Romania Lithuania NorthernIreland Belgium Denmark England CzechRepublic Estonia UK Latvia Hungary Spain Sweden Austria Greece Scotland Bulgaria Poland Portugal Netherlands Slovenia France Malta Italy Wales Finland Germany Percentageaged75+
  72. 72. Summary • Scotland’s population is likely to continue to increase and age over the next 25 years regardless of the outcome of the referendum • Net migration assumed to be the main contributor to population growth
  73. 73. Any questions?
  74. 74. Professor David Bell Professor of Economics University of Stirling This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  75. 75. Demographic Implications of Scottish Independence. PROFESSOR DAVID BELL DIVISION OF ECONOMICS STIRLING MANAGEMENT SCHOOL UNIVERSITY OF STIRLING
  76. 76. There has been a substantial increase in the number of states in the world in recent decades • The number of sovereign states has been steadily increasing for the last six decades at least • Median country size now less than 6m people. • Scottish population = 5.3m. 0 50 100 150 200 250 1950 1940 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 NumberofSovereign States
  77. 77. Has the Union been bad for Scotland’s population? Scotland’s Population/England’s Population 1600-2011 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 ScotlandPop/EnglandPop Year Act of Union
  78. 78. Two areas where demographics are making a significant impact on the independence debate • Migration – Can an independent Scotland’s economy grow consistently faster than rUK unless it is experiencing at least the same rate of net immigration? – What policy tools are available and effective in increasing net migration? • Ageing – Could an independent Scotland meet the additional costs associated with population ageing? – Could these costs be mitigated if Scotland was independent?
  79. 79. Ageing • Higher welfare costs? • Shorter life expectancy in Scotland • But fewer people of working age per pensioner • Estimates of extra costs in Scotland sensitive to assumptions about future net migration in Scotland and rUK
  80. 80. Welfare Spending in Scotland 2011-12
  81. 81. Relative Costs of Benefits per Working Age Person Scotland v Great Britain 2012-13 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Maternity Allowance Housing Benefit Council Tax Benefit DLA (children) Over 75 TV licences State Pension Winter Fuel Payments Carer's Allowance Total identified expenditure Attendance Allowance Pension Credit Jobseeker's Allowance Income Support Statutory Maternity Pay Industrial Injuries Benefits SDA (of which pensioners) Disability Living Allowance Severe Disablement Allowance SDA (of which working age) DLA(working age) Employment and Support Allowance DLA(pensioners) Incapacity Benefit
  82. 82. Differences in Costs of Pensioner Benefits Per Working Age Person £0 £1,000 £2,000 £3,000 £4,000 £5,000 £6,000 ExpenditureonPensionerBenefits PerWorkingAgePerson Scotland England
  83. 83. Demographic Change European old-age dependency ratios 2010 Source: Eurostat
  84. 84. Old-age Dependency Ratios 2040 Source: Eurostat
  85. 85. Ageing • Costs to society – measure as share of GDP – depends crucially on relative productivity of Scottish economy • Private pensions – sensitive to interest rates. Pension funds will buy Scottish Government bonds. Cheaper/more expensive than UK bonds?
  86. 86. Migration
  87. 87. What we know: Net Migration to Scotland Source: National Records of Scotland, 2013 *The broken line (2002 to 2011) shows estimates which may be recalculated using the 2011 Census
  88. 88. Wages and Proportion of Foreign Born Residents (2012) North East Wales Scotland Northern South West North West Yorkshire East Midlands West Midlands South-East 0 5 10 15 20 25 £440 £460 £480 £500 £520 £540 £560 £580 ProportionForeignBorn Gross Weekly Wage (£) Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2012, Annual Population Survey 2012
  89. 89. Further evidence: COMPAS public opinion research October 2013; 4,200+ responses 98 • Scotland: more welcoming/less hostile towards migration – Scotland: 58% desire reductions in immigration – England & Wales: 75% desire reductions in immigration • Support for Scotland controlling its own immigration policy – 60% Scottish Government, 31% UK government • Yes voters less opposed to immigration than No voters – 58% of No voters desire a reduction in immigration – 28% of Yes voters desire a reduction in immigration
  90. 90. Voting intentions and attitudes to migration 99 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Too low About right Too high Don't know Yes No Don't know Voting Intention Do you think the level of migration into Scotland in the last decade has been:
  91. 91. A Separate Immigration Policy for Scotland within the UK? • Requires political consent from both levels of government – Acceptable to public(s) – Effectiveness in meeting objective(s) – Stable within devolved settlement – Seems to work in Quebec 100
  92. 92. Conclusions • Demographic arguments may favour a more open approach to immigration in Scotland (whether independent or not) • Arguably, while an independent policy might have slightly stronger policy levers, a devolved migration policy might face fewer constraints in terms of implementation • Ageing poses a challenge with or without independence • Risk pooling argument would suggest benefits from continuing to handle risks at UK level • But Scotland might be able to put in place a better structured welfare policy • Within tight fiscal constraints, difficult to argue that there would not be losers as well as gainers from a restructuring of welfare 101
  93. 93. Professor Carol Jagger AXA Prof of Epidemiology of Ageing Institute for Ageing and Health Newcastle University This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  94. 94. Implications of Scotland’s independence on healthy longevity Carol Jagger AXA Professor of Epidemiology of Ageing Pia Wohand Senior Research Associate Institute for Ageing and Health Newcastle University ILC UK Debate 2 May 2014
  95. 95. Demographic challenge for Scotland and rest of UK • Inequalities in Disability- free life expectancy (DFLE) – Widening or narrowing? – What factors explain them? • Challenges of extending working life in terms of – Inequalities in DFLE – Who cares for whom? “ Increased longevity without quality of life is an empty prize. Health expectancy is more important than life expectancy.” Dr Hiroshi Nakajima, Director-General WHO 1997
  96. 96. DFLE inequalities exceed those in LE and are widening 1991 2001 1991 2001 mean 77.5 79.2 62.5 62.4 0.10 76.5 77.3 60.3 59.8 0.90 78.4 80.8 65.1 65.2 10-90% range 1.9 3.5 4.8 5.5 mean 79.2 80.9 63.9 64.6 0.10 77.5 79.1 60.1 59.9 0.90 80.7 82.6 67.0 68.3 10-90% range 3.2 3.5 6.9 8.4 mean 72.0 73.8 59.2 59.4 0.10 69.9 71.8 56.3 56.6 0.90 74.0 75.9 61.8 61.7 10-90% range 4.1 4.1 5.6 5.2 mean 73.8 76.4 60.9 62.2 0.10 71.7 74.0 56.4 56.9 0.90 75.6 78.5 64.5 66.3 10-90% range 3.9 4.5 8.1 9.4WomenMen LE DFLE Scotland England& Wales Scotland England& Wales
  97. 97. Where you live or how you live?
  98. 98. Which socio-economic factors explain variation in DFLE in E&W? DFLE at birth Women 1991 2001 Univariable Multivariable Univariable Multivariable β (SE) p β (SE) p β (SE) p β (SE) p Social Class IV and V (%) -0.46 (0.02) <0.001 -0.16 (0.03) <0.001 -0.66 (0.02) <0.001 -0.35 (0.03) <0.001 Unemployment rate (%) -0.64 (0.03) <0.001 -0.53 (0.05) <0.001 -1.33 (0.05) <0.001 -0.67 (0.08) <0.001 Retirement migration 1.71 (0.11) <0.001 0.42 (0.11) <0.001 3.18 (0.24) <0.001 1.42 (0.15) <0.001 Population density -0.04 (0.01) <0.001 0.02 (0.01) 0.005 -0.04 (0.01) <0.001 -0.01 (0.01) 0.337 Non-white population (%) -0.08 (0.02) <0.001 0.03 (0.02) 0.063 -0.07 (0.02) <0.001 0.05 (0.01) <0.001 r2 0.70 0.81 Source: Wohland et al 2014, JECH (in press)
  99. 99. Ethnic composition 2011 census 75 80 85 90 95 100 ENGLAND SCOTLAND Aberdeen City Edinburgh, City of Glasgow City Other Ethnic Group Black / African / Caribbean / Black British Asian / Asian British: Other Asian Asian / Asian British: Chinese Asian / Asian British: Bangladeshi Asian / Asian British: Pakistani Asian / Asian British: Indian Mixed / Multiple Ethnic Groups Gypsy / Traveller / Irish Traveller White
  100. 100. LE and DFLE at birth by ethnic group, 2001 ♀ ♂ AsianWhite Mixed Black Other Differences compared to White British Wohland et al 2014, Ethnicity & Health
  101. 101. Potential for extending working life UK*, men 2001 Average age at onset of disability Regions 65+ (N) <65 (N) <65 (%) EE 48 0 0 EM 35 5 13 LO 28 4 13 NE 10 13 57 NW 29 14 33 SE 67 0 0 SW 44 0 0 WM 31 3 9 YH 16 5 24 Wales 12 10 45 Total (E&W) 320 54 14 Scotland 22 10 31 *European Union 2005 analysis in Jagger et al, Lancet 2009
  102. 102. Need for care  Critical (requires 24-hour care)  Short-interval (requires help at regular times daily)  Long-interval (requires help less than daily)  Independent Source: Jagger et al. BMC Geriatrics 2011 • 75% in care homes • If at home main carer child • 33% in care homes • If at home main carer spouse (34%), child (31%) • 4% in care homes • If at home main carer child (37%), no-one (18%)
  103. 103. Who are the carers? Born age 85 child born child age when parent 85 1921 2006 1947 59 1931 2016 1956 60 1941 2026 1965 61 1951 2036 1976 60 1961 2046 1986 60 1971 2056 1997 59
  104. 104. Conclusions • Inequalities in healthy ageing – Between different ethnic groups – Explained partly by unhealthy behaviours • Ability to raise SPA and encourage longer working may be difficult – In those areas with age at onset of disability <65 • Longer life expectancy and growing 85+ population means working longer will entail juggling work and unpaid care for parent. This will disproportionally affect – women who provide most care
  105. 105. Acknowledgements Newcastle 85+ Study funded by the Medical Research Council, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and the Dunhill Medical Trust. Additional work has also been funded by the British Heart Foundation, Unilever Corporate Research, Newcastle University and NHS North of Tyne (Newcastle Primary Care Trust). http://www.ncl.ac.uk/iah/research/areas/biogerontology/85plus/ InHALE Inequalities in Healthy Active Life Expectancy: the role of time, place, person and methods ESRC Research Fund RES-062-23-2970 1 October 2011 - 30 September 2014 http://research.ncl.ac.uk/InHALE
  106. 106. Find out more about healthy life expectancy REVES 2014 Edinburgh 28-30 May 2014
  107. 107. Implications of Scotland’s independence on healthy longevity Carol Jagger (carol.jagger@ncl.ac.uk) Pia Wohand (pia.wohland@ncl.ac.uk) Institute for Ageing and Health Newcastle University ILC UK Debate 2 May 2014
  108. 108. The demographic implications of Scottish independence Population Patterns Seminar Series Friday 2nd May 2014 This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
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