This study reviews and documents available literature on the potential yields of crops such as rice,cassava,maize, e.t.c in Nigeria. The study was done with a view to shedding light on the agriculture production possibility frontier for planning purposes.

1. Review of Potential Crop Yields in
Nigeria
By
Manson Nwafor
ReSAKSS WA, IITA

2. Outline
• Background
• Objective
• Methodology
• Results by crop
• Summary of results
• Policy Implications
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 2

3. Background
• The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development
Program (CAADP) aims at reviving the agriculture sector
in Africa through improved partnerships and evidence
based policy making
• It targets a minimum of 6% growth in the sector and
devotion of 10% of national budgetary resources to the
agriculture sector as a means of achieving the
millennium development goal No 1.
• Careful planning is required to achieve these objectives.
A stocktaking of the factors that will determine
agriculture outcomes was necessary. One of this was the
scope/possibility of increasing crop yields.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 3

4. Objective
• the objective of the study was to review and
document available literature on the potential
yields of crops in Nigeria. The study was done
with a view to shedding light on the agriculture
production possibility frontier for planning
purposes.
• The study did not aim at documenting adoption
rates or factors determining adoption rates. It
also did not aim at documenting the factors that
determine actual yields.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 4

5. Methodology
• Descriptive analysis and critical literature
review
• Over 300 publications
• Definition of low, high and potential yield
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6. Rice Yields
• high rice yields ranged from 2.9 to 7
t/hectare and averaged 4.2 t/ha.
• The potential yield (5.4 t/ha) was obtained
by farmers who used improved varieties
and technologies provided by the rice
alliance.
• In 2006 the national average yield of rice
was 1.975 t/ha. This gives a yield gap of
3.43 t/ha or 173 percent.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 6

7. Cassava
• High yields ranged from 12.5 to 60 t/ha and
averaged 24.7
• the selected potential yield was 28.4 t/ha
(Tarawali et al [2008]). This yield was achieved
by farmers that used improved varieties under
the IITA Cassava Enterprises Development
Project (CEPD).
• the 2006 national average yield was 12.5 t/ha.
This gives a yield gap of 15.9 tonnes or 127%.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 7

8. Maize
• High yields for maize ranged from .48 to 8 t/ha.
The average high yield was 3.2 t/ha.
• The yield reported by Valencia et al [1999] was
selected as the potential yield. This yield was
achieved by farmers working with the state
agriculture development projects in 6 northern
states using improved varieties and practices.
They were able to achieve a high yield of at
least 4 t/ha.
• Comparing the potential yield to the 2006
national average yield (1.57 t/ha) gives a yield
gap of 154%.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 8

9. Sorghum
• High yields for sorghum ranged from 1.5 to 5
t/ha. The average high yield was 3 t/ha
• 3.2 t/ha was selected as the potential yield.
This was the average yield achieved by farmers
in 14 states of the country using improved as
opposed to traditional practices (FMA [1995]).
• The 2006 national average yield of sorghum was
1.18 t/ha. The yield gap is 171%.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 9

10. Millet
• Millet high yields ranged from 1.07 to 5 t/ha with an
average of 2.59 t/ha.
• The high yield of 2.4 t/ha was selected as it was the
highest best documented yield achieved by farmers. This
yield was achieved by farmers using improved practices
as opposed to traditional practices (FMA [1995]). Data
was collected by the agricultural projects monitoring and
evaluation unit during a survey of 14 states in the
country
• Comparing the potential yield to the 1.09 t/ha 2006
national average yield gives a yield gap of 121%.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 10

11. Yam
• Yam high yields ranged from 3.43 to 45.9 t/ha
with an average of 19 t/ha
• 18 t/ha was selected as the potential yield. This
yield was achieved by farmers that participated
in the National Special Programme for Food
Security in 109 sites across the country (FMAWR
[2007b]).
• Comparing the potential yield to the 2006
national average yield gives a yield gap of 5.4
t/ha or 43%.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 11

12. Irish Potato
• Only 2 useful publications were available.
• The high yields stated were 10.5 and 30 t/ha.
• 10.5 t/ha was selected as the potential yield
(FMA [1995]). Data was collected by the
agricultural projects monitoring and evaluation
unit during a survey of 14 states in the country
• Comparing the potential yield with the 2006
national average yield (7.8 t/ha) gives a yield
gap of 2.7 t/ha or 34%.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 12

13. Soyabean
• Based on 3 useful reports
• The yields ranged from .64 to 2 t/ha
• 2 t/ha was selected as the potential yield. This
yield was obtained through the use of improved
farm practices (FMA [1995]). Data was collected
by the agricultural projects monitoring and
evaluation unit during a survey of 14 states in
the country
• Comparing the potential yield with the 2006
national average yield (1.21 t/ha) gives a yield
gap of .79 t/ha or 66%.
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14. Beniseed
• Only one report by the Raw Materials Research
and Development Council (RMRDC) was found.
• As the only data available, the stated high yield
of 1 t/ha was selected as the potential yield. It
was based on stakeholders’ best estimate.
• Comparing the potential yield with the 2006
national average yield (.63 t/ha) gives a yield
gap of .36 t/ha or 57%.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 14

15. Melon
• Melon high yields ranged from .29 to 1.1 t/ha
with an average of .56 t/ha
• .52 t/ha was selected as the potential yield. This
yield was achieved by farmers in Akwa Ibom
state who used improved technologies and
technical knowledge provided by the state
agriculture development project (Okpongete et
al [1995]).
• Comparing the potential yield with the 2006
national average yield (.42 t/ha) gives a yield
gap of .1 t/ha or 24%.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 15

16. Cowpea
• Based on 3 reports
• The high yields ranged from 1.84 to 2.69 t/ha
with an average of 2.28 t/ha.
• 2.3 t/ha was selected as the potential yield. This
yield was achieved by farmers who used
improved rather than traditional practices. Data
was collected by the agricultural projects
monitoring and evaluation unit during a survey
of 14 states in the country
• Comparing the potential yield with the 2006
national average yield (.55 t/ha) gives a yield
gap of 1.75 t/ha or 317%.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 16

17. Okra
• Based on one report
• The high yield obtained was 4 t/ha. This yield
was achieved by farmers that participated in the
National Special Programme for Food Security in
109 sites across the country (FMAWR [2007b]).
Participating farmers received improved
varieties, agrochemicals as well as training on
improved practices and other forms of
assistance.
• Comparing the potential yield to the 2006
national average yield (3.13 t/ha) gives a yield
gap of .87 t/ha or 28%.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 17

18. Summary: Yield Gaps
350
300
250
Yield 200
Gap (%) 150
100
50
0
Rice Cassava Maize Sorghum Millet Yam Irish Soybean Beniseed Melon Cow pea Okra
Potato
Crop
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 18

19. Policy Implications
• There is considerable room for yield
improvement and , consequently, expansion of
output (even with less reliance on area
expansion). Consequently, policies which aim at
increased imports as a way of dealing with
supply gaps is counter-productive
• It is necessary for policy makers to consider
realistic yield targets when setting production
targets for the sector and different crops. it
would be necessary not to expect yields which
are very far from practical potential yields.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 19

20. Thank You for Your Attention
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 20