Time Series Foundation Models - current state and future directions
'How to make analysis in uncertain environment by Egils Meiers, LV
1. how to make
analysis
in uncertain environment
Egils Meiers 05.11.2013
Short story about complete disaster, and how we succeeded
2. About me
• Egils Meiers
• 20 years in IT
• All roles in Software
development life cycle
• More than 8 years in
management
• Now - Research and
development project manager
3. Background
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•
•
•
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Project type – research
Analysis length – 3 Months
Team – 3 experts
Client – our organization
Objective – find better way how to provide
integration with our product, define
business requirements for future
development
4. What was our plan
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•
•
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Identify stakeholders
Gather existing problems
Gather future process requirements
Develop clear vision for future
development
5. What we did
• Identified the stakeholder groups
• Created profiles for each stakeholder
group
• Identified the potential respondents
• Created survey to identify problems
and set goals
• Conducted a survey
6. What we get
• Understanding of problem area –
integration process
• Lots of different opinion about
problems
• Almost every respondent gives to us
a different answer about what can be
improved
• Panic – because we did not see, what
we must do further
7. So what's next
• We went to our partner
RTU
• Discussed about situation
• Identified method, which
can help us
• Developed future
integration process for
modeling
• Set up modeling
workshop
8. Modeling
• 4 models – Concept, Problem, Goal and
Process
• Detailed modeling for Problem and Goal
models including dependencies
9. What was result
• Connect Problem
and Goal models
• Three of goals solve
70% of problems
• There was no single
solution, but a
complex solution
10. Conclusion
• It is quite difficult to get common
view, when is involved a lot of different
parts
• Understanding of different points of view
can help, but not necessary show better
solution
• You must be ready that you can stuck
• When you stuck - try other methods to
go further
11. Thanks for Your attention!
Questions?
www.linkedin.com/in/remss
Egils.Meiers@gmail.com
Editor's Notes
How to make analysis in uncertain environmentEgils Meiers, Development Project Manager at FMSLinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/remssI will talk about uncertainty in projects. Abstract project goals, different understanding of problems and possible solutions, lot of party’s involved – all this factors significantly complicated analysis. I will share the experience of uncertainty in projects which we obtained in the R&D project and what solution to we used to achieve the project goal.During the seminar we will analyze the following aspects of the R & D project:• Project objectives and goals to be achieved• The methods that were used and the outcome• The problems we faced and why them occurred• What type of solution was chosen, and what was the result of it.As a result of this seminar, you will take the knowledge of our mistakes and would be able to avoid the repetition in similar projects. You will also get an idea of the EKD modeling technique that has helped us to accomplish the project successfully.
I will share the experience of uncertainty in projects which we obtained in the R&D project and what solution to we used to achieve the project goal.