The Global Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Industry in 2012 - Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead
 

The Global Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Industry in 2012 - Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead

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In this Slidecast Gus Ando, Director of the Healthcare and pharma practice at IHS, gives his top ten predictions for the the global healthcare and pharmaceutical industry in 2012

In this Slidecast Gus Ando, Director of the Healthcare and pharma practice at IHS, gives his top ten predictions for the the global healthcare and pharmaceutical industry in 2012

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The Global Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Industry in 2012 - Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead The Global Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Industry in 2012 - Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead Presentation Transcript

  • Global Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Industry: Our Top Ten Predictions for 2012
  • Welcome! Speaker: Gustav Ando Director Healthcare and Pharma IHS I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 2
  • 1. Europe Will See Cuts in Public Health Spending and Low Total Health Spending Growth
    • Europe in 2012 will be characterized by cuts in public health spending and low total health spending growth, amid a significant risk of recession
    • Price cuts in Southern Europe are being matched by stringent containment in developed markets like the UK, Germany, France and the Nordics
    I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 3
    • Despite slow economic recovery, US health spending growth will remain steady, driven primarily by price increases and demographic-related volume expansion
    • The pace will be tempered by reform-induced risks and healthcare expenditure cuts, as well as uncertainty surrounding the election
    • Focus in 2012 will be on implementation of health delivery systems such as an Accountable Care Organisation
    • Healthcare insurance is not expected to have meaningful expansion until beyond 2012
    2. US Health Spending Growth Will Remain Steady But Not Without Risks I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 4
  • 3. Emerging Markets and Generics Will Still Be the Primary Drivers of Growth in Global Health Spending
    • Emerging markets will lead global health spending growth, due largely to healthcare reform and strong economy
    • Generics sales will continue to achieve strong growth, driven by patent expiry on brand-name drugs, and cost-containment measures in the developed markets
    I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 5
    • Several important new therapies approved in 2010 and 2011 will likely see significant uptake in 2012, as they make their way towards becoming best-selling drugs
    • The blood-clotting market will see significant health spend expansion due to Eliquis, Xarelto and Pradaxa
    • Xgeva/Prolia will continue to drive growth in osteoporosis and skeletal disease
    • Prostate cancer and melanoma markets will see major uptake of new therapies
    4. Several Potential Game-Changers Will Make Their Mark I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 6
    • Entry of generics in the cardiovascular area for Lipitor and Plavix signals the final death knell of the old mass marketed retail pharma era
    5. Generic Lipitor and Plavix Signal the Formal End of an Era
    • It is now time for biologics such as the TNF-alpha inhibitors to finally assume their position as global market-leading products
    • Singulair – another major blockbuster – goes off-patent in August 2012
    I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 7
  • 6. China Will Continue its Double-Digit Growth in Total Health Spending
    • China buoyed by massive healthcare expansion and a strong economy
    • Double-digit growth in total health spending continues, offering potentially substantial rewards for foreign investments in the country—despite operational challenges
    • We expect China to surpass Germany by 2013, and Japan by 2014, to become the second largest healthcare market in the world
    I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 8
  • 7. India Will Return to Double-Digit Growth in Health Spending Beyond 2012
    • Several factors will hurt India’s health spending in 2012
    • However a strong economy, massive healthcare expansion and the increasing size of the middle income population will ensure double-digit growth in health spending over the long haul
    I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 9
  • 8. Healthcare Reform on the Agenda in Eastern Europe
    • Driven by events in the growing Polish market, where a new act will bring a new era to Poland’s pharmaceutical industry
    • A mixture of positive and negative drivers, with enhanced access to new drugs, particularly biologics, offset by the significant new HTA requirements, including potential risk-sharing agreements
    I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 10
  • 9. Price Cuts on the Way in Japan
    • Japan to undergo its biennial price cuts in April 2012, again putting significant top-line risk to pharmaceutical companies
    • The government has placed significant emphasis on cutting the prices of particularly innovative products — such as Remicade — in recent years
    I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 11
  • 10. International Reference Pricing Will Continue to Distort Market Access Strategies
    • Ongoing austerity measures have seen the significant expansion of international reference pricing
    • Led by Greece, which has changed its basket of countries to include markets with very different socioeconomic indicators
    • This will continue to impact launch strategies and narrow the price corridor across EMEA market in particular
    I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 12
  • Download Our Free Report! Healthcare Forecasts Amidst Global Economic Turmoil: Recession–Proof or Leaking Roof? This report examines the impact of current global economic climate on Global health expenditure and pharmaceutical sales, and forecasts growth in healthcare spending in 2012. I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS 13
    • Health expenditure in developed Vs emerging markets
    • Planned US medicare payment cuts
    • Price cuts and generics in Germany
    • UK public health expenditure
    • Italy's austerity measures
    • Spain's deficit reduction and cost-containment
    • China's healthcare reform
    • India's health-insurance and price controls
    • Brazil's domestic drug production &
    • drug prices
      • Visit the IHS Healthcare and Pharma Blog
    Get weekly insights on global Healthcare Policy, Market Access, Pricing and Reimbursement and R&D .
  • Copyright © 2011 IHS