Planetary and societal risks

PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
the urgent need for societal transformations
MODERATOR: Andrew Revkin
dotEarth, New York Times
Sybil Seitzinger
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
Deborah Rogers
International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change
Gisbert Glaser
Senior Policy Advisor
International Council for Science

Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship
Professor Sybil Seitzinger
Executive Director

Antarctic ice core
Modern humans appear in Africa
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Carbon
dioxide
Temperature
Methane
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.

Antarctic ice core
Beyond natural boundaries
Methane
Carbon
dioxide
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.

Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)
And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
Human Development andGlacial-Interglacial Cycling
Source: GRIP icecore data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004

IGBP Climate-change index
Global carbon dioxide
Arctic sea-ice minimum
Global surface temperature
Global sea level

IGBP Climate-change index

The Great Acceleration – a planet under pressure

Population
US Bureau of the Census (2000) International database
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Total real GDP
Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press

Foreign direct investment
World Bank (2002) data and statistics

Damming of rivers
World Commission on Dams (2000)

Water use
Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water Resources

Fertiliser consumption
International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002)

Urban population
The State of the World’s Cities (2001)

Paper consumption
Pulp and paper international (1993)

Motor vehicles
Global environmental outlook (2000)

Telephones
Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World Bank

International tourism
World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trends

Shrimp farm production

Domesticated land

Planetary response

Atmospheric CO2 concentration
Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128

Atmospheric N2O concentration
Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925

Atmospheric CH4 concentration
Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222

Northern hemisphere average surface temperature
Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762

Ozone depletion

Tropical rainforest and woodland loss

Natural climatic disasters

Fisheries exploitation

Coastal zone nitrogen flux

Biodiversity loss

Great acceleration

“Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.”
Ban Ki-Moon

A resilient Earth System

Reduced resilience – our precarious predicament

Ozone
Depletion
Climate Change
Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
Nitrogen
Ocean
Acidification
Phosphorus
Rate of Biodiversity Loss
Global
FreshwaterUse
Land System Change
Chemical
Pollution
Rockström et al. 2009

2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum
“The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”

Planetary stewardship- a safe operating space for humanity

Planetary Stewardship
2020
2040
2050
2030

New knowledge toward solutionsLondon, 26-29 March 2012

Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship
Professor Sybil Seitzinger
Executive Director
www.igbp.net
Sybil.seitzinger@igbp.kva.se

Planetary and societal risks

by IGBP

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Planetary and societal risks Presentation Transcript