Planetary and societal risks

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  • To note:London 7-10 MayPlanetary meeting focusing on solutions2500 leading global-change thinkersInfluence 2012 Earth Summit: Rio +20INTEGRATION of many research and policy communities is key. We want the best global change thinkers to attendPlanet Under Pressure: new knowledge, new solutions
  • This great acceleration really started in the 50s
  • To note:London 7-10 MayPlanetary meeting focusing on solutions2500 leading global-change thinkersInfluence 2012 Earth Summit: Rio +20INTEGRATION of many research and policy communities is key. We want the best global change thinkers to attendPlanet Under Pressure: new knowledge, new solutions
  • The biophysical responses of the Earth System show many of the same features as the Great Acceleration in the human enterprise.The hockeystick pattern applies all key indicators that form the basis for human well being and environmental health.
  • Nitrous oxide makes up an extremely small amount of the atmosphere - it is less than one-thousandth as abundant as carbon dioxide. However, it is 200 to 300 times more effective in trapping heat than carbon dioxide.Nitrogen is removed from the atmosphere by plants and converted into forms such as ammonia, which can then be used by the plants. This is called nitrogen fixation. At the same time, micro-organisms remove nitrogen from the soil and put it back into the atmosphere - denitrification - and this process produces nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide also enters the atmosphere from the ocean.Nitrous oxide has one of the longest atmosphere lifetimes of the greenhouse gases, lasting for up to 150 years.Burning fossil fuels and wood is one source of the increase in atmospheric nitrous oxide, however the main contributor is believed to be the widespread use of nitrogen-base fertilisers. Sewage treatment plants may also be a major source of this gas.Since the Industrial Revolution, the level of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere has increased by 16%.
  • Beyond climate

Transcript

  • 1. PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
    the urgent need for societal transformations
  • 2. PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
    the urgent need for societal transformations
    MODERATOR: Andrew Revkin
    dotEarth, New York Times
    Sybil Seitzinger
    International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
    Deborah Rogers
    International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change
    Gisbert Glaser
    Senior Policy Advisor
    International Council for Science
  • 3. Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship
    Professor Sybil Seitzinger
    Executive Director
    International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
  • 4.
  • 5. Antarctic ice core
    Modern humans appear in Africa
    Carbon dioxide
    Methane
    Carbon
    dioxide
    Temperature
    Methane
    Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
    Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
  • 6. Antarctic ice core
    Beyond natural boundaries
    Methane
    Carbon
    dioxide
    Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
    Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
  • 7. Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)
    And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
    Human Development andGlacial-Interglacial Cycling
    Source: GRIP icecore data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
  • 8. IGBP Climate-change index
    Global carbon dioxide
    Arctic sea-ice minimum
    Global surface temperature
    Global sea level
  • 9. IGBP Climate-change index
  • 10. The Great Acceleration – a planet under pressure
  • 11. Population
    US Bureau of the Census (2000) International database
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 12. Total real GDP
    Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 13. Foreign direct investment
    World Bank (2002) data and statistics
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 14. Damming of rivers
    World Commission on Dams (2000)
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 15. Water use
    Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water Resources
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 16. Fertiliser consumption
    International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002)
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 17. Urban population
    The State of the World’s Cities (2001)
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 18. Paper consumption
    Pulp and paper international (1993)
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 19. Motor vehicles
    Global environmental outlook (2000)
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 20. Telephones
    Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World Bank
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 21. International tourism
    World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trends
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 22. Shrimp farm production
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 23. Domesticated land
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 24. Planetary response
  • 25. Atmospheric CO2 concentration
    Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 26. Atmospheric N2O concentration
    Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 27. Atmospheric CH4 concentration
    Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 28. Northern hemisphere average surface temperature
    Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 29. Ozone depletion
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 30. Tropical rainforest and woodland loss
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 31. Natural climatic disasters
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 32. Fisheries exploitation
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 33. Coastal zone nitrogen flux
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 34. Biodiversity loss
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 35. Great acceleration
    IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  • 36. “Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.”
    Ban Ki-Moon
  • 37. A resilient Earth System
  • 38. Reduced resilience – our precarious predicament
  • 39. Where are the thresholds in the Earth system?
    Photograph by Annie Griffiths Belt
    National Geographic, February 2008 – © National Geographic Society, All rights reserved.
  • 40. Ozone
    Depletion
    Climate Change
    Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
    Nitrogen
    Ocean
    Acidification
    Phosphorus
    Rate of Biodiversity Loss
    Global
    FreshwaterUse
    Land System Change
    Chemical
    Pollution
    Rockström et al. 2009
  • 41. 2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum
    “The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”
  • 42. Planetary stewardship- a safe operating space for humanity
  • 43. Planetary Stewardship
    2020
    2040
    2050
    2030
  • 44. New knowledge toward solutionsLondon, 26-29 March 2012
  • 45. Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship
    Professor Sybil Seitzinger
    Executive Director
    International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
    www.igbp.net
    Sybil.seitzinger@igbp.kva.se