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Planetary and societal risks

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  • To note:London 7-10 MayPlanetary meeting focusing on solutions2500 leading global-change thinkersInfluence 2012 Earth Summit: Rio +20INTEGRATION of many research and policy communities is key. We want the best global change thinkers to attendPlanet Under Pressure: new knowledge, new solutions
  • This great acceleration really started in the 50s
  • To note:London 7-10 MayPlanetary meeting focusing on solutions2500 leading global-change thinkersInfluence 2012 Earth Summit: Rio +20INTEGRATION of many research and policy communities is key. We want the best global change thinkers to attendPlanet Under Pressure: new knowledge, new solutions
  • The biophysical responses of the Earth System show many of the same features as the Great Acceleration in the human enterprise.The hockeystick pattern applies all key indicators that form the basis for human well being and environmental health.
  • Nitrous oxide makes up an extremely small amount of the atmosphere - it is less than one-thousandth as abundant as carbon dioxide. However, it is 200 to 300 times more effective in trapping heat than carbon dioxide.Nitrogen is removed from the atmosphere by plants and converted into forms such as ammonia, which can then be used by the plants. This is called nitrogen fixation. At the same time, micro-organisms remove nitrogen from the soil and put it back into the atmosphere - denitrification - and this process produces nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide also enters the atmosphere from the ocean.Nitrous oxide has one of the longest atmosphere lifetimes of the greenhouse gases, lasting for up to 150 years.Burning fossil fuels and wood is one source of the increase in atmospheric nitrous oxide, however the main contributor is believed to be the widespread use of nitrogen-base fertilisers. Sewage treatment plants may also be a major source of this gas.Since the Industrial Revolution, the level of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere has increased by 16%.
  • Beyond climate
  • Transcript

    • 1. PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
      the urgent need for societal transformations
    • 2. PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
      the urgent need for societal transformations
      MODERATOR: Andrew Revkin
      dotEarth, New York Times
      Sybil Seitzinger
      International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
      Deborah Rogers
      International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change
      Gisbert Glaser
      Senior Policy Advisor
      International Council for Science
    • 3. Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship
      Professor Sybil Seitzinger
      Executive Director
      International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
    • 4.
    • 5. Antarctic ice core
      Modern humans appear in Africa
      Carbon dioxide
      Methane
      Carbon
      dioxide
      Temperature
      Methane
      Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
      Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
    • 6. Antarctic ice core
      Beyond natural boundaries
      Methane
      Carbon
      dioxide
      Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
      Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
    • 7. Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)
      And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
      Human Development andGlacial-Interglacial Cycling
      Source: GRIP icecore data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
    • 8. IGBP Climate-change index
      Global carbon dioxide
      Arctic sea-ice minimum
      Global surface temperature
      Global sea level
    • 9. IGBP Climate-change index
    • 10. The Great Acceleration – a planet under pressure
    • 11. Population
      US Bureau of the Census (2000) International database
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 12. Total real GDP
      Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 13. Foreign direct investment
      World Bank (2002) data and statistics
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 14. Damming of rivers
      World Commission on Dams (2000)
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 15. Water use
      Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water Resources
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 16. Fertiliser consumption
      International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002)
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 17. Urban population
      The State of the World’s Cities (2001)
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 18. Paper consumption
      Pulp and paper international (1993)
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 19. Motor vehicles
      Global environmental outlook (2000)
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 20. Telephones
      Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World Bank
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 21. International tourism
      World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trends
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 22. Shrimp farm production
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 23. Domesticated land
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 24. Planetary response
    • 25. Atmospheric CO2 concentration
      Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 26. Atmospheric N2O concentration
      Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 27. Atmospheric CH4 concentration
      Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 28. Northern hemisphere average surface temperature
      Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 29. Ozone depletion
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 30. Tropical rainforest and woodland loss
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 31. Natural climatic disasters
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 32. Fisheries exploitation
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 33. Coastal zone nitrogen flux
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 34. Biodiversity loss
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 35. Great acceleration
      IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    • 36. “Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.”
      Ban Ki-Moon
    • 37. A resilient Earth System
    • 38. Reduced resilience – our precarious predicament
    • 39. Where are the thresholds in the Earth system?
      Photograph by Annie Griffiths Belt
      National Geographic, February 2008 – © National Geographic Society, All rights reserved.
    • 40. Ozone
      Depletion
      Climate Change
      Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
      Nitrogen
      Ocean
      Acidification
      Phosphorus
      Rate of Biodiversity Loss
      Global
      FreshwaterUse
      Land System Change
      Chemical
      Pollution
      Rockström et al. 2009
    • 41. 2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum
      “The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”
    • 42. Planetary stewardship- a safe operating space for humanity
    • 43. Planetary Stewardship
      2020
      2040
      2050
      2030
    • 44. New knowledge toward solutionsLondon, 26-29 March 2012
    • 45. Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship
      Professor Sybil Seitzinger
      Executive Director
      International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
      www.igbp.net
      Sybil.seitzinger@igbp.kva.se

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