REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND
FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Structural Transformation as a ...
Reforms,diversificationand growth in Central
Asian agriculture
• Since early 1990s agrarian reforms have included…
• Reduc...
Selectedfood security indicators (2010-2012)
Average dietary
energy supply
adequacy, %
Food
imports/Total
merchandise
expo...
REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND
FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND
FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Pathways to food security: from short-run to long-run
and from macro to micro
Short Run Long Run
Macro - Food price stabil...
Successful structural transformation is necessary
for achieving stable food security in long run
• Four elements of succes...
Landand labor productivityin CAC
agriculture(1990-2010)– “Ruttan-a-gram”
[CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELL...
Landand labor productivityin Central Asian
agriculture(1990-2010)– “Ruttan-a-gram”
Kazakhstan: Structural transformation
Industry Services Agriculture
1990 52.3 36.4 11.3
2000 40.5 50.8 8.7
2011 40.1 54.3 ...
Kyrgyzstan: Structural transformation
Industry Services Agriculture
1992 37.8 23.2 30
2000 32.1 31.3 36.6
2011 29.8 52.1 1...
Tajikistan: Structural transformation
Industry Services Agriculture
1992 46.1 26.5 27.4
2000 38.4 34.3 27.3
2011 25.3 47.8...
Uzbekistan: Structuraltransformation
Industry Services Agriculture
1990 32.5 43.7 23.8
2000 23.1 42.5 34.4
2012 32.4 48.7 ...
Structural transformationpathsin Central
Asia: Summary
Employment in agriculture
Increasing Decreasing
Income
differential...
Demographictransitionand dividendin
Central Asian countries
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
1950195519601965197019...
Kazakhstan:Compositionof calorie intake
Kyrgyzstan:Compositionof calorieintake
Tajikistan:Compositionof calorie intake
Uzbekistan:Compositionof calorie intake
Conclusions
• Structural transformation is a sustainable way to
achieve food and nutrition security
• Uneven patterns of c...
Thank you for your
attention
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Structural Transformation as a Pathway to Food Security: Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Trends in Central Asian Countries

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"Structural Transformation as a Pathway to Food Security: Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Trends in Central Asian Countries", presented by Kamiljon T. Akramov, at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, April 8-9, 2014, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

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Structural Transformation as a Pathway to Food Security: Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Trends in Central Asian Countries

  1. 1. REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA Structural Transformation as a Pathway to Food Security: Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Trends in Central Asian Countries Kamiljon T. Akramov, IFPRI, Washington, DC With contributions from Allen Park and Noah Cohen-Cline April 8-9, 2014 Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
  2. 2. Reforms,diversificationand growth in Central Asian agriculture • Since early 1990s agrarian reforms have included… • Reduction of government involvement in decision-making • Land reform and farm reorganization • Formation of markets and institutions • Reforms stimulated agricultural diversification • Land allocation patterns changed in favor of food and high value agriculture • Yields in food and high value agriculture continually increasing • During the last decade the region enjoyed strong agricultural and economic growth • Per capita incomes increased and poverty significantly declined • Nevertheless, the countries of the region still haven’t achieved stable food and nutrition security • Stunting rates vary from 13% (Kazakhstan) to 39% (Tajikistan)
  3. 3. Selectedfood security indicators (2010-2012) Average dietary energy supply adequacy, % Food imports/Total merchandise exports, % Per capita food production variability Depth of the Food Deficit (kcal/capita/day ) Prevalence of undernourishm ent, % Armenia 121 50 13 17 <5 Azerbaijan 129 17 9.8 11 <5 Georgia 117 50 27.3 221 24.7 Kazakhstan 144 3 23.1 3 <5 Kyrgyzstan 120 25 2.7 43 6.4 Tajikistan 100 34 5.8 262 31.7 Turkmenistan 127 3 20.6 19 <5 Uzbekistan 115 7 11.2 41 6.1 Bangladesh 107 21 2.5 122 16.8 Nepal 113 50 3.3 126 18.0 Yemen 99 31 1.4 215 32.4 Source: FAO (2013); Akramov & Shredhar (2012)
  4. 4. REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
  5. 5. REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
  6. 6. Pathways to food security: from short-run to long-run and from macro to micro Short Run Long Run Macro - Food price stability and the role of grain reserves and international trade - Safety net policy to protect the poor and the budget implications of these transfers - Policies for creating inclusive economic growth including fiscal, monetary, exchange rate and trade policies Micro - Vulnerability to price shocks - Resilience to external shocks - Receipts from safety nets - Poverty reduction and stable access to nutritious and healthy food Source: Timmer (forthcoming)
  7. 7. Successful structural transformation is necessary for achieving stable food security in long run • Four elements of successful structural transformation (Timmer 2013) • Declining share of agriculture in GDP & employment • Narrowing gap in labor productivity between agriculture & non- agriculture • Urbanization • Demographic transition • Structural transformation accompanies two other transformations • Agricultural transformation • Dietary transformation • What is the evidence on these transformations in Central Asia?
  8. 8. Landand labor productivityin CAC agriculture(1990-2010)– “Ruttan-a-gram” [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 500 1000 2000 4000 GAOperhectareofagriculturallandadjustedtorainfed-cropland equivalents(USD/ha) GAO per economically-active worker in agriculture (USD/worker) Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
  9. 9. Landand labor productivityin Central Asian agriculture(1990-2010)– “Ruttan-a-gram”
  10. 10. Kazakhstan: Structural transformation Industry Services Agriculture 1990 52.3 36.4 11.3 2000 40.5 50.8 8.7 2011 40.1 54.3 5.5 1990 NA NA NA 2000 20 53.2 26.7 2011 19 54.6 26.5 Share of GDP, % Share of Employment, %
  11. 11. Kyrgyzstan: Structural transformation Industry Services Agriculture 1992 37.8 23.2 30 2000 32.1 31.3 36.6 2011 29.8 52.1 18 1992 22.5 39.3 38.1 2000 10.5 36.4 53.1 2011 21 48.3 30.7 Share of GDP, % Share of Employment, %
  12. 12. Tajikistan: Structural transformation Industry Services Agriculture 1992 46.1 26.5 27.4 2000 38.4 34.3 27.3 2011 25.3 47.8 26.9 1992 20.0 33.2 46.8 2000 6.9 28.2 64.9 2011 4 29 67 Share of GDP, % Share of Employment, %
  13. 13. Uzbekistan: Structuraltransformation Industry Services Agriculture 1990 32.5 43.7 23.8 2000 23.1 42.5 34.4 2012 32.4 48.7 18.9 1990 27.9 39.4 32.7 2000 12.7 52.8 34.4 2012 13.0 59.8 27.2 Share of GDP, % Share of Employment, %
  14. 14. Structural transformationpathsin Central Asia: Summary Employment in agriculture Increasing Decreasing Income differential Narrowing A) Farmer developing B) Lewis Path Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Growing C) Lewis trap Tajikistan D) Farmer excluding Kazakhstan
  15. 15. Demographictransitionand dividendin Central Asian countries 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 1950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010201520202025203020352040204520502055206020652070207520802085209020952100 Share of Working-Age Population (20-59 years old) Projected East Asia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan South Asia
  16. 16. Kazakhstan:Compositionof calorie intake
  17. 17. Kyrgyzstan:Compositionof calorieintake
  18. 18. Tajikistan:Compositionof calorie intake
  19. 19. Uzbekistan:Compositionof calorie intake
  20. 20. Conclusions • Structural transformation is a sustainable way to achieve food and nutrition security • Uneven patterns of continuing structural transformation in the region presents serious problems for policymakers • Investment in agriculture and rural infrastructure is necessary to raise productivity in the sector • Promoting labor-intensive manufacturing might be needed to absorb surplus labor from the agricultural sector
  21. 21. Thank you for your attention
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