Challenges and Projections
for Global Agriculture
and Food Security
Sherman Robinson and the Impact Team
International Foo...
www.ifpri.org
Outline
 IFPRI’s baseline projections:
• Drivers of agricultural growth
• The IMPACT Model
• Data for Centr...
www.ifpri.org
Drivers of Agricultural Growth
and Food Security
 Demand drivers
• Population growth: 9 billion people in 2...
www.ifpri.org
 Rapid income growth and urbanization – effects
on diets and patterns of agricultural production
• Increase...
www.ifpri.org
 Supply drivers
• Climate change
• Water and land scarcity
• Investment in infrastructure
• Investment in a...
www.ifpri.org
The IMPACT Model
 International Model for Policy Analysis of
Agricultural Commodities and Trade
 Global pa...
www.ifpri.org
IMPACT Model – Schematic
 Hydrology Model
 Water Basin
Management Model
 Water Stress Model
 Multimarket Model:
crops, sugar, oilseeds,
livesto...
IMPACT version 3
159
• Countries
154
• Water
Basins
320
• Food
Production
Units
• 58 Agricultural
commodities
9
Production, Exports and Imports in
Central Asia
10
Central Asia’s Shares of
Global Cotton Exports
National Exports as a Percent of Global Exports
11
Cotton Yields in Central Asia
12
Country Yield Ratio # Regions
Kazakhstan 80.3 7
Kyrgyzstan 95.6 2
Tajikistan 63.0 1
Turkm...
www.ifpri.org
Change in World Prices of Cereals
between 2010 and 2030
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
www.ifpri.org
www.ifpri.org
Change in World Prices of Meats
between 2010 and 2030
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
www.ifpri.org
World Crop Area
Baseline Projections
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
www.ifpri.org
World Crop Yields
Annual Average Growth Rate
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
www.ifpri.org
Sources of Cereal Production Growth
2010 - 2030
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
What about climate change?
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 4(B), 31Mar2014
Global annual average surface temperature
23
Historical climate change impacts on
yields
1960-2013
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 2(C), 31Mar2014
24
Projected climate change impacts on
yields
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7, Figure 7-7, 31Mar2014 25
www.ifpri.org
Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate
change in 2050
Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2%
So...
www.ifpri.org
Overall production change in shown existing areas: -37.3%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Rainfed Maize: Im...
www.ifpri.org
Impact on International Food Prices
(2010=100)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Wheat Maize Rice
2010 2050 no CC 2050 CC...
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
The Agricultural Model
Intercomparison and Improvement
Project (AgMIP)
31
Price increase scenario results (%), 2010 – 2050,
Baseline economy and demography, IMPACT 2010
Minimum and maximum
effect ...
Alternate perspectives on price scenarios 2004-2050,
OECD comparison 2011 (perfect mitigation)
IMPACT had substantially gr...
The role of agricultural
technologies
• Baseline to 2050, including
climate change
• Linked crop models and
economic model...
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
Price effects of technologies
36
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
Impacts on Food Security
37
www.ifpri.org
Thank you for your attention
S.Robinson@cgiar.org
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Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security

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"Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security" presented by Sherman Robinson at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, April 8-9, 2014, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

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  • The complexities involved in projecting food supply and demand over the longer term have raised interest in closer comparison of different projection exercises; thus AgMIP (acknowledge USDA support).
  • Shows the range of results for 7 climate change scenarios with RCP 8.5 to 2 climate models; 2 crop models; 9 economic models, relative to the case of no climate change.YEXO down by mean (red line) of 17 percent, YTOT down 11, AREA up 11, PROD down 2, TRSH up 1, CONS down 3, PRICE up 20.Note prices up and yields down particularly hard for rural poor who will see food costs rise and incomes fall.Also note caveat that these scenarios were selected to facilitate model intercomparison, not to reflect likely futures.
  • Maize price mean increase is 101 % higher; max is 131, min is 83Rice price mean increase is 55; max is 57, min is 53Wheat price mean increase is 54; max is 66, min is 45All these are for the baseline overall scenario
  • Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security

    1. 1. Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security Sherman Robinson and the Impact Team International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) April 2014
    2. 2. www.ifpri.org Outline  IFPRI’s baseline projections: • Drivers of agricultural growth • The IMPACT Model • Data for Central Asia • Base scenario results  Climate challenges (IPCC 2014)  AgMIP results (PNAS 2014)  The role of technologies (Rosegrant et al. 2014)
    3. 3. www.ifpri.org Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security  Demand drivers • Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050 • Urbanization: 50% in 2008, 78% in 2050 • Income growth • Oil prices • Biofuels and bioenergy • Conservation and biodiversity http://www.government.nl/dsc?c=getobject&s= obj&objectid=101492
    4. 4. www.ifpri.org  Rapid income growth and urbanization – effects on diets and patterns of agricultural production • Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables • Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains for feed • Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods • Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils • Half of growth in grain demand will be for Livestock feed • Increased pressure on land and water http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fast_food_( 282678968).jpg Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
    5. 5. www.ifpri.org  Supply drivers • Climate change • Water and land scarcity • Investment in infrastructure • Investment in agricultural research • Policy http://fbae.org/2009/FBAE/website/images/ btcotton_rice.jpg http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2012/07/18/dro ught18- 8b9a6db718dda8f9f968da97316f9c0a2daa365 5-s40-c85.jpg Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
    6. 6. www.ifpri.org The IMPACT Model  International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade  Global partial equilibrium model • Food model • Water models • Crop models • Malnutrition model
    7. 7. www.ifpri.org IMPACT Model – Schematic
    8. 8.  Hydrology Model  Water Basin Management Model  Water Stress Model  Multimarket Model: crops, sugar, oilseeds, livestock/meat  SPAM - Spatial Production Allocation Model  Land-Use Model  DSSAT Crop Models  Biofuel Model  Livestock Model IMPACT Suite of Models 8
    9. 9. IMPACT version 3 159 • Countries 154 • Water Basins 320 • Food Production Units • 58 Agricultural commodities 9
    10. 10. Production, Exports and Imports in Central Asia 10
    11. 11. Central Asia’s Shares of Global Cotton Exports National Exports as a Percent of Global Exports 11
    12. 12. Cotton Yields in Central Asia 12 Country Yield Ratio # Regions Kazakhstan 80.3 7 Kyrgyzstan 95.6 2 Tajikistan 63.0 1 Turkmenistan 65.8 3 Uzbekistan 86.0 2 Ratio to global average (%), FAO Data, average for 2004-2006. Regions: water basins
    13. 13. www.ifpri.org Change in World Prices of Cereals between 2010 and 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
    14. 14. www.ifpri.org
    15. 15. www.ifpri.org Change in World Prices of Meats between 2010 and 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
    16. 16. www.ifpri.org World Crop Area Baseline Projections Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
    17. 17. www.ifpri.org World Crop Yields Annual Average Growth Rate Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
    18. 18. www.ifpri.org Sources of Cereal Production Growth 2010 - 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
    19. 19. What about climate change? Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 4(B), 31Mar2014 Global annual average surface temperature 23
    20. 20. Historical climate change impacts on yields 1960-2013 Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 2(C), 31Mar2014 24
    21. 21. Projected climate change impacts on yields Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7, Figure 7-7, 31Mar2014 25
    22. 22. www.ifpri.org Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2050 Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2% Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (MIROC/A1B)
    23. 23. www.ifpri.org Overall production change in shown existing areas: -37.3% Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2080 (MIROC/A1B)
    24. 24. www.ifpri.org Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100) 0 50 100 150 200 250 Wheat Maize Rice 2010 2050 no CC 2050 CC Average of four GCM, A1B, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
    25. 25. Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014) The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) 31
    26. 26. Price increase scenario results (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography, IMPACT 2010 Minimum and maximum effect from four climate scenarios 33
    27. 27. Alternate perspectives on price scenarios 2004-2050, OECD comparison 2011 (perfect mitigation) IMPACT had substantially greater price increases than LEITAP or ENVISAGE 34
    28. 28. The role of agricultural technologies • Baseline to 2050, including climate change • Linked crop models and economic models • Assessed 11 technologies for maize, rice and wheat • Impacts on prices, yields, risk of hunger Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014) 35
    29. 29. Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014) Price effects of technologies 36
    30. 30. Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014) Impacts on Food Security 37
    31. 31. www.ifpri.org Thank you for your attention S.Robinson@cgiar.org
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