Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security
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"Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security" presented by Sherman Robinson at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, ...

"Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security" presented by Sherman Robinson at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, April 8-9, 2014, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

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  • The complexities involved in projecting food supply and demand over the longer term have raised interest in closer comparison of different projection exercises; thus AgMIP (acknowledge USDA support).
  • Shows the range of results for 7 climate change scenarios with RCP 8.5 to 2 climate models; 2 crop models; 9 economic models, relative to the case of no climate change.YEXO down by mean (red line) of 17 percent, YTOT down 11, AREA up 11, PROD down 2, TRSH up 1, CONS down 3, PRICE up 20.Note prices up and yields down particularly hard for rural poor who will see food costs rise and incomes fall.Also note caveat that these scenarios were selected to facilitate model intercomparison, not to reflect likely futures.
  • Maize price mean increase is 101 % higher; max is 131, min is 83Rice price mean increase is 55; max is 57, min is 53Wheat price mean increase is 54; max is 66, min is 45All these are for the baseline overall scenario

Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security Presentation Transcript

  • Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security Sherman Robinson and the Impact Team International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) April 2014
  • www.ifpri.org Outline  IFPRI’s baseline projections: • Drivers of agricultural growth • The IMPACT Model • Data for Central Asia • Base scenario results  Climate challenges (IPCC 2014)  AgMIP results (PNAS 2014)  The role of technologies (Rosegrant et al. 2014)
  • www.ifpri.org Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security  Demand drivers • Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050 • Urbanization: 50% in 2008, 78% in 2050 • Income growth • Oil prices • Biofuels and bioenergy • Conservation and biodiversity http://www.government.nl/dsc?c=getobject&s= obj&objectid=101492
  • www.ifpri.org  Rapid income growth and urbanization – effects on diets and patterns of agricultural production • Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables • Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains for feed • Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods • Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils • Half of growth in grain demand will be for Livestock feed • Increased pressure on land and water http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fast_food_( 282678968).jpg Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
  • www.ifpri.org  Supply drivers • Climate change • Water and land scarcity • Investment in infrastructure • Investment in agricultural research • Policy http://fbae.org/2009/FBAE/website/images/ btcotton_rice.jpg http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2012/07/18/dro ught18- 8b9a6db718dda8f9f968da97316f9c0a2daa365 5-s40-c85.jpg Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
  • www.ifpri.org The IMPACT Model  International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade  Global partial equilibrium model • Food model • Water models • Crop models • Malnutrition model
  • www.ifpri.org IMPACT Model – Schematic
  •  Hydrology Model  Water Basin Management Model  Water Stress Model  Multimarket Model: crops, sugar, oilseeds, livestock/meat  SPAM - Spatial Production Allocation Model  Land-Use Model  DSSAT Crop Models  Biofuel Model  Livestock Model IMPACT Suite of Models 8
  • IMPACT version 3 159 • Countries 154 • Water Basins 320 • Food Production Units • 58 Agricultural commodities 9
  • Production, Exports and Imports in Central Asia 10
  • Central Asia’s Shares of Global Cotton Exports National Exports as a Percent of Global Exports 11
  • Cotton Yields in Central Asia 12 Country Yield Ratio # Regions Kazakhstan 80.3 7 Kyrgyzstan 95.6 2 Tajikistan 63.0 1 Turkmenistan 65.8 3 Uzbekistan 86.0 2 Ratio to global average (%), FAO Data, average for 2004-2006. Regions: water basins
  • www.ifpri.org Change in World Prices of Cereals between 2010 and 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • www.ifpri.org
  • www.ifpri.org Change in World Prices of Meats between 2010 and 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • www.ifpri.org World Crop Area Baseline Projections Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • www.ifpri.org World Crop Yields Annual Average Growth Rate Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • www.ifpri.org Sources of Cereal Production Growth 2010 - 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
  • What about climate change? Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 4(B), 31Mar2014 Global annual average surface temperature 23
  • Historical climate change impacts on yields 1960-2013 Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 2(C), 31Mar2014 24
  • Projected climate change impacts on yields Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7, Figure 7-7, 31Mar2014 25
  • www.ifpri.org Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2050 Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2% Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (MIROC/A1B)
  • www.ifpri.org Overall production change in shown existing areas: -37.3% Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2080 (MIROC/A1B)
  • www.ifpri.org Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100) 0 50 100 150 200 250 Wheat Maize Rice 2010 2050 no CC 2050 CC Average of four GCM, A1B, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
  • Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014) The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) 31
  • Price increase scenario results (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography, IMPACT 2010 Minimum and maximum effect from four climate scenarios 33
  • Alternate perspectives on price scenarios 2004-2050, OECD comparison 2011 (perfect mitigation) IMPACT had substantially greater price increases than LEITAP or ENVISAGE 34
  • The role of agricultural technologies • Baseline to 2050, including climate change • Linked crop models and economic models • Assessed 11 technologies for maize, rice and wheat • Impacts on prices, yields, risk of hunger Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014) 35
  • Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014) Price effects of technologies 36
  • Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014) Impacts on Food Security 37
  • www.ifpri.org Thank you for your attention S.Robinson@cgiar.org