0
Application of an agricultural sector model to the
assessment of advances in animal health and livestock
feed technologies...
Outline
Global picture of livestock production and demand
Improved livestock production as engine for socioeconomic develo...
Livestock’s Global Importance
Livestock production accounts for 30% of land
surface and 70% of available agricultural land...
Trends in Livestock Demand and Production
250,000

140,000
120,000

200,000

100,000

Meat Africa

80,000

Meat Asia

60,0...
A Role for Livestock in Economic Development
Potential


Large smallholder sector in many developing
countries, e.g., 70 ...
Science-based solutions to
livestock yield and production gaps
I. Livestock Feeds
• Fodder development
e.g., Napier grass
...
East Coast Fever


Caused by intracellular
protozoan Theilera parva



Calves and exotic breeds
most susceptible



End...
Livestock Feed Constraints
Poor feed quality, limited
supplies constrain expansion
of livestock production
Intensification...
Assessing the Options
Application of the IMPACT model
Long run partial equilibrium model of world agricultural trade

45+ ...
On-going Data and Analysis Work
Specifying technical parameters for livestock technologies
Livestock production system (yi...
Parameterizing Livestock Technology Options
Table 1: Parameters for Evaluating a Vaccine and a Feed Processing
Technology ...
Next Steps and Challenges
Next Steps


Conclusion on specifications of technical coefficients



Model update for assess...
Some Implications for Research and Policy
Analysis such as discussed could provide some
direction for international/countr...
Thank you for your attention!
Acknowledgements
This work receives its funding from:
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
The CGIAR Research Program on
...
International Livestock Research Institute
Better lives through livestock
Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and...
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15 enahoro impact_evaluation_health_feeds

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Transcript of "15 enahoro impact_evaluation_health_feeds"

  1. 1. Application of an agricultural sector model to the assessment of advances in animal health and livestock feed technologies By: D. Enahoro, H. Kiara, B. Lukuyu, S. Msangi Conference on Mainstreaming Livestock Value Chains: bringing the research to bear on impact assessment, policy analysis and advocacy for development. Accra, GHANA, 5 – 6 November, 2013
  2. 2. Outline Global picture of livestock production and demand Improved livestock production as engine for socioeconomic development Science-based options to bridging yield gaps  Animal disease control  Livestock feed development Assessing options in the IMPACT framework Next steps and limitations Implications for research and policy
  3. 3. Livestock’s Global Importance Livestock production accounts for 30% of land surface and 70% of available agricultural land globally Contributes 40 percent of world agriculture GDP (mean 33% in developing countries, up to 80 in some) Employs 1.3 billion; provides food, incomes, nonmarket benefits (do these exceed market benefits?) Livestock products make up 23% (10%) total calories consumed/person in developed (developing) countries  Account for a third of aggregate protein intake  Constitute 17% of global agricultural trade  Meat products and developed countries dominate international trade in livestock products Caveat: Livestock production can be a significant contributor to environmental stresses: water use and pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, land degradation …
  4. 4. Trends in Livestock Demand and Production 250,000 140,000 120,000 200,000 100,000 Meat Africa 80,000 Meat Asia 60,000 Meat C. America 40,000 Meat Europe 20,000 Meat N. America Milk Africa 150,000 Milk Europe 50,000 Milk N. America Milk S. America 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2007 2004 2001 1998 1995 1992 1989 1986 1983 1980 Milk C. America 100,000 Meat S. America 0 Milk Asia Figure 1: Meat Demand (‘000 MTs) in selected regions 1980 – 2009 (FAO) Figure 2: Milk Demand (‘000 MTs), selected regions 1980 – 2009 (FAO) 5,000 140,000 120,000 4,000 100,000 Africa 3,000 80,000 Asia 60,000 C. America 40,000 E. Union N. America 0 20,000 S. America -1,000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Figure 3: Meat Production (‘000 MTs), selected regions 1980 - 2011 (FAOstat) ITA MEX BRA CHN GUL ALG AEU POL SCA NET BRI ARG FRA AUS NZE 1,000 GER 0 2,000 -2,000 -3,000 Figure 4: Net Trade in Meat (‘000 MTs), High export and import countries (FAOstat, 2000)
  5. 5. A Role for Livestock in Economic Development Potential  Large smallholder sector in many developing countries, e.g., 70 - 80% of national herd in Tanzania, Ethiopia  Up to 900 million poor livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia (Staal et al., 2009)  Global demand for livestock products to > double by 2050  Opportunities for improved production; incomes, nutrition, health outcomes for the poor in developing countries? Challenges …  Low livestock yield/productivity in smallholder systems  Issues with food safety, risks of animal-related diseases  Weak markets, institutions, policies; barriers to trade  Global climate change
  6. 6. Science-based solutions to livestock yield and production gaps I. Livestock Feeds • Fodder development e.g., Napier grass • Dual purpose crop cultivar development • Feed preservation and processing e.g., fortified blocks, calf starters II. Animal Health • East Coast Fever vaccine • Contagious Bovine Pleuro-Pneumonia • Peste de Petites Ruminants • African Swine fever • Zoonotic diseases including Rift Valley fever III. Genetics and Breeding • Breeding management* • Reproduction technologies (embryo transfers, etc.) • Animal genetic resources data systems • Marker-assisted selections, etc. • Indigenous breeds (knowledge of) IV. Other • Improved livestock water productivity • Livestock insurance * Knowledge and application of principles …
  7. 7. East Coast Fever  Caused by intracellular protozoan Theilera parva  Calves and exotic breeds most susceptible  Endemic in 11 countries in E., C., and S. Africa  28.7 million cattle (20%) in high risk areas  Slaughter, border restrictions, treatment, vec tor methods for control  Live vaccine available; high costs of administration Ken Tan Zim 1.1 m deaths, est. 300 m USD related losses/year  Uga Fig. 5: Distribution of ECF in sub-Saharan Africa (McLeod and Randolph)  Improved multi-component vaccine proposed
  8. 8. Livestock Feed Constraints Poor feed quality, limited supplies constrain expansion of livestock production Intensification pressures threaten system sustainability Technologies needed to increase supplies & improve qualities using minimum land expansion New varieties Disease, pest etc. control, climate resistance Feed processing options (Mogus, 2011) calf starters, mineral blocks, silage …
  9. 9. Assessing the Options Application of the IMPACT model Long run partial equilibrium model of world agricultural trade 45+ globally trade commodities, 115 regions/countries 300+ food production units (FPU) 8 global livestock production systems (LPS) FPU-level crop production; FPU-LPS livestock production FPU/LPS supply equations; country-level demand equations for food, feed, biofuels and other uses of commodities Model projections (to 2050): Production (crop areas, animal numbers, yields), demand, net trade, prices, malnutrition rates. Rates of return on investments, production-related GHG emissions, etc.
  10. 10. On-going Data and Analysis Work Specifying technical parameters for livestock technologies Livestock production system (yield) Food production system (feed availability and quality) Country/region (demand) Global (costs of international agricultural research) Allocating global research costs. How are long-run returns affected by: What you invest in? How much? Who bears the costs, when investments are made, etc. Assessing returns Producer profits, consumer prices, food security and nutrition, environment, etc.
  11. 11. Parameterizing Livestock Technology Options Table 1: Parameters for Evaluating a Vaccine and a Feed Processing Technology for Cattle (Kenya only*) ECF Stress Feed Constraint Technology option Multi-comp. vaccine Calf starter Pop. under stress 50-100% 50% 5-25% 60% Increase births N/A 30% Increase yield 5-15% 30-40% 2012 - 2022 2012 - 2015 N/A 150,000 USD N/A 10,000 USD 4.626 m USD** 250,000 USD Exp. max adoption 5-30% N/A Success probability 50% 70% Reduce (calf) mortality R-to-Adoption timeline Costs- R&D - Extension - Commercial *Cattle distribution in Kenya: Rangelands systems 26%; Mixed 25%; Urban 24% and Other 25% ** These are global / International costs
  12. 12. Next Steps and Challenges Next Steps  Conclusion on specifications of technical coefficients  Model update for assessment of financial returns  Extension to tracking environmental outcomes  Explore relevant policy questions for animal health and feed options, others Challenges  Data on productivity and potential of livestock production systems  Good estimates of research and related costs  Model (inherent) limitation to specific range of policy questions  Chain activities largely missing
  13. 13. Some Implications for Research and Policy Analysis such as discussed could provide some direction for international/country direction for (agricultural) research . E.g., incentive(?) for countries’ commitment to vaccine development Specific input needed from the grassroots, development (agencies) and policy communities on the ‘most relevant’ questions and outcomes Some agreement on prioritizing the demands from diverse constituents IMPACT-based recommendations typically longrun. In line with electoral tenures? Data! Data! Data! Iterative process required
  14. 14. Thank you for your attention!
  15. 15. Acknowledgements This work receives its funding from: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation The CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
  16. 16. International Livestock Research Institute Better lives through livestock Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries ILRI www.ilri.org
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