Ecobuild 2011 - Prometheus Weather Files project

PrometheusThe Use of Probabilistic Climate Change Data to Future-proofDesign Decisions in the Building Sector Dr Tristan Kershaw Richard Quincey University of Exeter IES Ltd.

Project Partners: Funded by:

Context UK Building Regulations Energy Policy Design Weather Data Sustainable Compliance Mitigation / Adaptation Sustainable Design Life … 100+ years? Risk Assessment / Investment

Context - current DSY weather data – current:

Context - future Peak ext design temperatures – current: 45 40 35 30 25 TRY-H 20 DSY-H 15 TRY-H DSY-H 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 -5 -10

Context - future HDD & CDD – current: 3000 2500 2000 TRY-H 1500 DSY-H TRY-H DSY-H 1000 500 0 2005 2030 2050 2080

Context - future CEI – current: 35 30 25 20 TRY-H 15 DSY-H 10 5 0 2005 2030 2050 2080

Prometheus IPCC: there is a 50% chance that global warming will not exceed 2ºC for stabilisation of CO2-eq at 450ppm. Currently we are at ~425ppm CO2-eq CO2 emissions are currently greater than the A1FI emissions scenario

Prometheus 2oC global warming means ~6oC in London.

Prometheus Perception of climate change within the building industry • Surveys of several architectural and engineering firms. • General concern about climate change and inadequacies of current practices. Very few (~6%) actively denied climate change. • Greater seniority greater satisfaction with current practices. • Participants focused almost exclusively upon mitigation rather than adaptation options when listing current practices. • Most common reactions to climate change were to reduce CO2 emissions, increase sustainability and longevity of building design. • When asked about possible alternatives to current practices only 5% of responses listed adaptation options, the rest were exclusively mitigation based. • Main barrier to change was time / money. Published in Building and Environment 46 1151-1158 (2011)

PrometheusUKCP09 Probability Levels

PrometheusHow this affects the UK

Prometheus Possible impacts: Heatwaves ∆T warmest day ∆T warmest night

PrometheusSo we need weather files! CIBSE files:14 sites Exeter files: 35 sites •3 time periods •5 probability levels •Medium and high emission scenarios •Both TRY and DSY type files Method peer reviewed and published. Building Serv. Eng. Res. Technol. (online). Files available for free download from: http://www.exeter.ac.uk/cee/prometheus

Prometheus Comparing files: CDFs The UKCP09 weather generator produces 3000 years of weather from which we assemble our probabilistic files. The five probabilistic files map well the distribution of the whole set.

PrometheusComparing files: CDDs and HDDs

PrometheusThe range of possible climate change is large. So which filesshould you be using?Things to consider:•Risk tooccupants, vulnerablegroups.•Cost benefit analysis•Dialogue with client Exeter files versus CIBSE files

Adapting Buildings Brief: To create a timeline of possible adaptation•Increased occupancy•Modern office environment•Possible future changes in use•Overheating, comfort and productivity

LifecycleBuilding …100 yearsHVAC …25 years

Climate lifecycle Peak temperature … 50 40 TRY-H 30 DSY-H PROTRY-50 PRODSY-50 20 TRY-H DSY-H PROTRY-50 10 PRODSY-50 0 2005 2030 2050 2080 -10

Climate lifecycle Heating degree days… 2900 2700 2500 2300 TRY-H DSY-H 2100 PROTRY-50 PRODSY-50 1900 1700 1500 2005 2030 2050 2080

Climate lifecycle Cooling degree days… 2600 2400 2200 2000 TRY-H 1800 DSY-H PROTRY-50 1600 PRODSY-50 1400 1200 1000 2005 2030 2050 2080

Climate lifecycle Climate energy index… all hours 10 9.5 9 8.5 8 TRY-H 7.5 DSY-H PROTRY-50 7 PRODSY-50 6.5 6 5.5 5 2005 2030 2050 2080

Climate lifecycle Climate energy index…9am to 5pm 33 31 29 27 25 TRY-H DSY-H 23 PROTRY-50 PRODSY-50 21 19 17 15 2005 2030 2050 2080

Conclusions Prometheus data: Uses the latest UKCIP data (2009) Higher level of confidence than 2002 data It is free … just download it Protect investment – assess the risk Built form – design for mitigation (CAF) – design in adaptation strategy HVAC – short lifecycle / long term strategy

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Ecobuild 2011 - Prometheus Weather Files project

by IES VE on Jan 20, 2012

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