Modelling the demand in Spain with Med-Pro

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Modelling the demand in Spain with Med-Pro

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Modelling the demand in Spain with Med-Pro

  1. 1. 70th ETSAP meeting Modelling the energy demand in Spain with MED-Pro CIEMAT (Madrid), 17 November 2016 Carlos Garcia Barquero Head Department of Planning and Studies IDAE 1
  2. 2. IDAE´s experience on energy simulation and prospective studies 2 • Methodology: EUROSTAT (ESR) and IEA Energy Statistics • Prospects:  End-use and RES: Monitoring and prospects of energy consumption by sector (main end-use subsectors in industry, transport, services and households) and fuel (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, electricity, biofuels, biomass, solar, wind and H2);  Energy demand forecasts: in the framework of medium and long-term energy prospective national projects; • Tools: country adaptation and application of energy models, i.e. MEDEE-EUR, MURE, EFOM-ENV, POLES and MED-Pro for Spain; MEDEE-SUD for Algeria and Morocco
  3. 3. • Carried out under the framework of the project “Sectoral studies on energy monitoring (SES)” • Recent studies: o Industry: cement, glass, steel alloys o Transport: urban buses, freight transport, private cars o Services: shopping centers, hotels, hospitals, private offices, universities, institutes and public schools; heat pumps o Residential: electricity and heating & cooling EUROSTAT´s surveys, SPAHOUSEC studies o Renewable: biomass and solar thermal panels End-use and RES studies 3
  4. 4. •Final energy demand long-term simulation: - End-use energy model developed from MEDEE suite, with focus on energy efficiency & technological improvement - Submodels: Industry, Transport, Residential, Services and Agriculture - Disaggregation by sub-sectors, end-uses and intensive processes - Wide level of insight: 450 equations and 900 variables • Advantages: - Flexibility at structure and disaggregation level - Technological progress and socio-economic changes are main drivers - Energy efficiency, saving potential and fuel substitution are also considered - Long-term uncertainty is approached by means of alternative scenarios • Limitations: - Significant amount of data for the base year - Coherent assumptions for the establishment of scenarios are required • Simulation period: - Base year, calibration year and up to 30 forecast years for simulation MED-Pro: Energy Demand Model 4
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  6. 6. 6 Flexible disaggregation
  7. 7. 7 Structure of the model INPUTS RESULTS ANNUAL DATA OPTIONAL SUBMODELS SOCIOECONOMIC l Socioeconomics Basic Disaggregation Desagregación sectorial F Industrial production F GDP Macroeconomic consistence F Stock of vehicles F Population Industry F Trade F Households • Thermal uses • Industrial Subsectors • Energy Intensive Products F Stock of dwellings F Equipment ownership • Electric uses • Construction • Steel F Equipment F Employment • Non energy uses • Private vehicles by types Transport l Technicals • ŸPrivate vehicles • Motocycles F Fuel efficiencies • Public passengers SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION F Specific consumptions Road F Intensive Products Rail F Vehicles Air F End uses- Household sector PARAMETERS • ŸGoods F Tertiary Dwellings Road F Elasticities Rail F Logistic coeficients Sea F Conversion coeficients • International sea DEMAND BY ENERGY SOURCE TYPE Agriculture F by industrial branches • Tractores • Energy Intensive Porducts F by transport mode and type of vehicle SCENARIOS • Pumping F Electrical appliances l Socioeconomics • ŸFishing boats F End uses- Tertiary sector F Population • Thermal uses F by agriculture uses F Economic growth • Electric uses F Industrila growth Households F Energy prices • Cooking and other thermal uses • Urban by zone • Heat Water F Productivity • ŸLighting and other electrical consumptions • Rural by zone • ŸHeating • ŸUrban by social class • ŸAir conditioning INDICATORS l Technicals • ŸRural by social class • Electrical apllications F Energy Intensities F Efficiency improvements Tertiary F Elasticities F Technology penetration • Thermal uses • ŸSubsectors • ŸPublic lighting F Energy expenses F Market trends • Electric uses F CO2 emissions • Informal sector • Public passengers by bus size • Freight by truck size DEMAND PROJECTION MODULE STRUCTURE
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  14. 14. Modelling with Med-Pro: main sources of information and tasks Tasks • In-depth analysis of energy consumption for the base year • Research and assessment of sectoral energy perspectives • Sectoral disaggregation and preparation of sub-models within the tool •Coherent assumptions for the establishment of scenarios and assignment of variables for each sector •Econometric contrast of electricity for the whole simulation period Sources • IDAE´s own sources (EE & RES technologies) • IDAE´s energy monitoring and technology deployment studies • Statistics and socio-economic forecasts from public and private institutions • Medium and long-term trends provided Spanish Government, European Commission and other international bodies (OCDE, UN, etc.) • Manufacturer associations and private companies of the energy sector 14
  15. 15. Example of global scenarios for MED-Pro Reference • Globalization, economic development and growth in world trade • Similar present economic and energy trends • XX% annual GDP growth for 2000-2030 • EU energy market progress • Oil prices from YY $05/bbl in 2000 to ZZ $05/bbl in 2030. Gas prices … • Light decrease of energy taxes Lower growth • Downturn, with lower economic growth (GDP) and social integration • High increase of oil prices and subsequent oscillations • Similar evolution of energy taxes Hight reduction of ENV impacts • Greater economic growth (GDP), lower during first years • Substantial progress in climate change EU policy, limited emissions of GHG in the energy sector • Lower environmental impacts, targeted fiscal policy and harmonization at EU level • Similar increase of oil prices, greater for gas and lower for coal • Significant increase of energy taxes for end-users, internalization of external costs and environmental benefits Greater growth • Greater economic growth (GDP), in particular during first years • Intensive market, wide economic integration and lower public participation in the economic growth • Similar evolution of energy prices • Decrease of energy taxes 15
  16. 16. Reference Scenario: main inputs 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 $95/barril Year Oil international prices 30,0 32,0 34,0 36,0 38,0 40,0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Millones Year Evolution of Population Source: INE 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Billonesptas.1986 Year Evolution of GDP Source: MEH 0 50 100 150 200 250 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Base1995=100 Evolution of GDP by sector Agricultura Industria Servicios Source: MEH Source: EC 16
  17. 17. Reference Scenario: main results 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Final consumption (ktoe) 64.961 72.026 79.916 87.726 92.413 98.063 103.715 Final Energy Intensity (tep/Mpta 86) 1,66 1,73 1,65 1,62 1,54 1,44 1,32 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ktoe (toe/Mpta) Evolution of final energyconsumption and energyintensity in Spain Energía (ktep) Intensidad total (tep/Mpta 86) 17
  18. 18. Reference Scenario: results for household sector 0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Intensidad energética en el sector residencial: consumo de energía sobre PIB (tep/106pta) Consumo energético de los hogares Intensidad total Gasóleo 11,1% GLP 22,6% Gas natural 10,1% Electricidad 32,1% Solar 0,2% 2000 Combustibles sólidos 24,0 % Gasóleo 11,2% GLP 17,0% Gas natural 17,2% Electricidad 36,0% Solar 2,0% 2010 Combustibles sólidos 16,7 % Gasóleo 10,9% GLP 15,4% Gas natural 20,9% Electricidad 36,6% Solar 2,2% 2020 Combustibles sólidos 13,9 % 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Intensidad energética en el sector residencial: consumo por hogar (tep/hogar) Consumo energético por hogar Consumo eléctrico por hogar Consumo no eléctrico por hogar 18
  19. 19. • MEDPro (EEf) • REMap (RES) • TIMES (EMod) • ECf • RESc-b • ECp • RESc-b SINERGIA MINETUR IDAE SGPES/CIEMAT Results Results Base Input Input Contrast 19 Models interaction under SINERGIA (so far)
  20. 20. MedPro–TIMES sectoral fitting 20
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