JRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlook


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JRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlook

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JRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlook

  1. 1. The European Commission’s science and knowledge service Joint Research Centre JRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlook Unit C.7 - Knowledge for Energy Union Wouter Nijs 17/11/2016
  2. 2. 2 The JRC develops models for the energy system and interlinked sectors 2 Energy System Optimisation (JRC-EU-TIMES) Asset Optimisation Price Taker Models (SPIRIT) Energy Services Demand Power System Unit Commitment (Dispa-SET) Weather / Demand Statistical Models Land use & forestry (LUISA, CBM, GFTM) Regional Holistic Global Equilibrium (RHOMOLO) Petten Other JRC Hydrology (LISFLOOD) Global Energy (TIMES-TIAM) BIO- MASS2 WATER- FLEX3 ERIBE- LAND1 JRCTIMESTRADE Model landscape
  3. 3. 3 To analyse the role of energy technologies and their innovation in meeting the Energy Union's objectives by modelling possible future pathways for low-carbon technologies at system level JRC-EU-TIMES 3
  4. 4. 4 IMPROVED RES-e POTENTIALS HEATING AND COOLINGOTHER DEVELOPMENTS BIOMASS New base year 2010+ Endogenous power plants lifetime Power2Gas Water - Energy Updated biomass, solar and wind potentials Explicit representation of insulation options in buildings Link with EnergyPLAN and FORECAST Impact of alternative biomass supply and demand Coupling with carbon balance and wood markets forestry models JRC-EU-TIMES and some applications NOVEL INTEGRATION OF Var. RES SENSITIVITY Linear operative relations based on EHMIRES and DISPA-SET Impact of policy context and techno-economic assumptions
  5. 5. 5 EMHIRES is a publically available European dataset on wind and PV power generation as well as temperature corrected power demand, derived from meteorological sources that is available on several geographical levels: country, bidding zone, NUTS-1, NUTS-2. What is EMHIRES? Increased accuracy • Generation adequacy assessments • RES-E integrations studies • Studies on flexibility technologies, e.g. storage The wind data are meteorologically derived wind power time series at high temporal and spatial resolution.
  6. 6. 6 Reconstructed wind farm database Current methods Approximations of few (5-10) power curves at averaged hub heights (80 and 100m) EMHIRES: 1061 specific power curves of the 160 manufacturers registered in Europe at the precise hub height of the wind farm Improvement: matching 95% of ENTSO-E 2015 factsheet statistics, while the original database matched 89% Primary data: The Wind Power
  7. 7. 7 Dispa-SET 2.1 is a state of the art unit commitment and dispatch model 7 Objective • Minimise variable system costs Constraints • Hourly demand balances (power and reserve) • Ramping constraints, minimum up and down times • Storage balances (PHS,CAES) • NTC based market coupling • Curtailment of wind, PV and load shedding (optional) Wind, PV Generation (MWh/h) Commodity Prices (EUR/t) Power Demand (MWh/h) Variable costs/prices (EUR/MWh) Plant output (MWh/h) Emissions (t CO2) Plant data (MW, eff,…) Formulated as a tight and compact mixed integer program (MIP) Implemented in GAMS, solved with CPLEX Plant on/off status (binary) Dispa-SET model logic
  8. 8. 8 Dispa-SET 2.1 Current coverage
  9. 9. 9 JRC-EU-TIMES integration of Var. RES • Parametrization for each timeslice based on statistical analysis • of Dispa-set operation results • for a wide set of exploratory configurations of the power system. Parametrization: • Power Capacities • Flexible demand • Electricity for heating • Electricity for hot sanitary water • Power Storage • Excess power for curtailment or transformation Power to Fuels • Operation of dispatchable plants.
  10. 10. 10 JRC-EU-TIMES integration of Var. RES • Parametrization for each timeslice based on statistical analysis • of Dispa-set operation results • for a wide set of exploratory configurations of the power system.
  11. 11. 11 Sensitivity to policy context and techno- economic assumptions
  12. 12. 12 Sensitivity to policy context Power production today (up) and in 2050 (middle and lower)
  13. 13. 13 Sensitivity to policy context Total energy use today (up) and in 2050 (middle and lower)
  14. 14. 14 Forestry wood use by source in 2030
  15. 15. 15 H&C in JRC-EU-TIMES: the residential sector Buildingcategories New bottom-up estimation of thermal requirements based on EUROSTAT building categories (detached, semidetached, flats), building vintage (6 groups), and insulation measures (roof, walls, windows). Calibration to the JRC- IDEES database based on HDD, building geometry, insulation, and occupancy rates.
  16. 16. 16 Heating: preliminary Sankey diagram
  17. 17. 17 •EU Science Hub: ec.europa.eu/jrc •Twitter: @EU_ScienceHub •Facebook: EU Science Hub - Joint Research Centre •LinkedIn: Joint Research Centre •YouTube: EU Science Hub Stay in touch
  18. 18. 18 Thank you!