PROCESS IMPROVEMENT &
DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS –
LESSONS LEARNT FROM A
EUROPEAN STATISTICS
CONFERENCE.
IAN MORTON,
SEPTEMBER ...
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
On the 15th September of this year I went to The European
Network of Business and Industrial Statisticia...
CONTENTS
• What is ENBIS & The Greenfield Challenge
• Conference
• arrangements,
• people,
• material
• programs
• So what...
WHAT IS ENBIS ? AND
THE GREENFIELD CHALLENGE
•

Twitter – saw a tweet
• International Year of Statistics 2013
• ENBIS twee...
HOTEL VERSUS CONFERENCE

From a development point of
view there is a lot of new
construction in terms of
offices, retail a...
CONFERENCE ARRANGEMENTS
• Delivered my talk again
• Parallel strands of talks
• Some talks technical and detailed

• Some ...
CONFERENCE PEOPLE
•

Keynote address – Fugee Tsung

•

Video of a talk from George Box

•

Talk from David Steinberg

•

T...
CONFERENCE MATERIAL COVERED
• Service industries
• Statistical Process Control
• Process improvement
• Quality improvement...
EXAMPLES AND PROGRAMS
•

Examples
• Hotel – reduce breakages of plates
• Hotel – customer survey of what was important to ...
SOME EXAMPLES
• SPC
• DoE
SPC - AN EXAMPLE FROM TELECOMMS
A typical assembly line of the period

• Apprentice in electronics company
• Learn what va...
DOE - AN EXAMPLE FROM TELECOMMS
• Amplifier – but anyone with electronic experience would
realise it is a simple and unrea...
OPTIONAL – PAPER HELICOPTER EXPERIMENT
• The academic paper (Box, 1991)
• The design
• Scissors

• A4 paper
• Understand v...
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT
•

Box and Woodall (2012)

•

To be innovative you have to do experiments and make mistakes ?

•
...
THAT WAS IT – 2 DAYS IN TURKEY
REFERENCES
•
•
•
•

Box and Woodall (2012) Innovation, Quality Engineering, and Statistics
Box and Lui (1999) Statistics a...
Enbis 13
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On the 15th September of this year I went to The European Network of Business and Industrial Statisticians (ENBIS) meeting in Ankara, Turkey. I had received free entry to this conference and a prize in book tokens from Wiley - in recognition of a talk I had given to a primary school on being a statistician. The conference was attended by engineers, scientists and academics who were generally from, or working with, the service industries (e.g. hotel and leisure, telecommunications, oil and gas supply, and transport). The statistical approaches under discussion were “design of experiments” and “statistical process control”. The techniques were used by these people to reduce waste, improve processes and for quality improvement purposes.

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  • Who I am.
  • I will just read this summary out to you.
  • I want to tell you about the journey I took to get to the conference – not the actual travel but the process.I then want to try and explain to you how some of the techniques discussed at the conference could be of practical use to you.
  • It’s not up on the screen but I wanted to provide some background.Local primary school, Work focus week – November 2012, Headmaster – looking for volunteersParents provide details about their work, And, why we need to workI gave a presentation on being a statistician – and what I doVery enthusiastic children (40 ish) of P4/P5, At least one question each.On twitter one day, I saw an advert for International Year of Statistics 2013 and The Greenfield Challenge. Read this out – from the screen.ENBIS stands for European Network for Business & Industrial Statistics, Formed in 2000 by Tony Greenfield.Meet annually, 1,500 practitioners, 60 countries Thought I would enter and I submitted the talk I gave to the schoolchildren to ENBIS. Basically I won 3rd prize.
  • Just to give you a feel for the location of the conferenceNow to the conference itself.
  • At the conference I gave them the talk I had given to the schoolchildren.Aside from that I also went to many of the talks. Some were quite technical, others were very practical. But I think there was good balance.Because there were parallel strands of talks I tried to pick on the ones that I could understand and those that would also enhance my statistical toolbox.You can see the participants – not too surprising given it was in Turkey.Now onto the people I heard from and met, and then the material.
  • The keynote address was delivered by FugeeTsung who is an academic. He told us very enthusiastically about SPC, 6 sigma and how useful a run chart was. He discussed many practical examples.We also had a video of an interview with George Box, a renowned statistician who was an expert on quality control & design of experiments. He was famous for saying “essentially all models are wrong, but some are useful”.There was a talk by David Steinberg who has written many papers on experimental design.In general you can see the careers of those who attended (no-one else from Scotland – that I knew about).And, I got to meet Tony Greenfield who helped set up ENBIS & gave rise to the Greenfield Challenge.To repeat – my intention was to enhance the tools in my statistical toolbox.
  • Obviously, I can’t do it justice here in a short talk but in general, the methods discussed wereTo deliver process improvement through SPC. Or, To design an experiment that could be analysed with statistics.With the latter, as I see it there wasn’t another way. Data hadn’t been collected routinely through a survey, data couldn’t be simulated, and data wasn’t available from a known database. So therefore they would say it isn’t an observational study , it is an experimental study.With the former (SPC) - importance placed on the Model for Improvement - Talks in the references.With the latter(DoE), they are good for looking at causation. You are in complete control of the experiment, you can reduce bias and reduce confounding.
  • Here are some of the practical examples of SPC and DoE they gave at the conference. I will tell you a bit more about them.You can also see the software programs they use.
  • Looking back on my time in telecommunications I could have advised others on how to use SPC to produce better quality telephones on a telephone assembly line.
  • I started off my working life as an electronics apprentice – when I knew next to nothing about statistics.And now as a statistician - I am hearing about design of experiments and how this can be useful in understanding how variations in electronic component specification affect the output of an amplifier.When people talk about DoE you often hear them mention: Factors, levels, interactions, randomisation, replication, blinding, ANOVA.
  • So there you have it ! Hopefully, I now have a slightly bigger set of tools in my statistical toolbox.You have seen how I have gone from being asked to give an elementary talk to primary school children on statistics, to hearing about practical uses of some quite technical statistical techniques.
  • Enbis 13

    1. 1. PROCESS IMPROVEMENT & DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS – LESSONS LEARNT FROM A EUROPEAN STATISTICS CONFERENCE. IAN MORTON, SEPTEMBER 2013
    2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On the 15th September of this year I went to The European Network of Business and Industrial Statisticians (ENBIS) meeting in Ankara, Turkey. I had received free entry to this conference and a prize in book tokens from Wiley - in recognition of a talk I had given to a primary school on being a statistician. The conference was attended by engineers, scientists and academics who were generally from, or working with, the service industries (e.g. hotel and leisure, telecommunications, oil and gas supply, and transport). The statistical approaches under discussion were “design of experiments” and “statistical process control”. The techniques were used by these people to reduce waste, improve processes and for quality improvement purposes.
    3. 3. CONTENTS • What is ENBIS & The Greenfield Challenge • Conference • arrangements, • people, • material • programs • So what will you do with this learning ?
    4. 4. WHAT IS ENBIS ? AND THE GREENFIELD CHALLENGE • Twitter – saw a tweet • International Year of Statistics 2013 • ENBIS tweeted about The Greenfield Challenge • It provides recognition of giving a presentation on statistics to non-statisticians • In January 2013 I entered – didn’t know what prize • In August 2013 - won third prize • book tokens • free entry to ENBIS-13 conference – checked content • (I just needed T&S) • ENBIS-13 in Ankara, Turkey.
    5. 5. HOTEL VERSUS CONFERENCE From a development point of view there is a lot of new construction in terms of offices, retail and housing in Ankara, Turkey. You get the impression of affluence.
    6. 6. CONFERENCE ARRANGEMENTS • Delivered my talk again • Parallel strands of talks • Some talks technical and detailed • Some very practical Some statistics ------->
    7. 7. CONFERENCE PEOPLE • Keynote address – Fugee Tsung • Video of a talk from George Box • Talk from David Steinberg • Tony Greenfield • Generally • Academics • Technologists • Engineers • Chemists • Scotland - X This article was mentioned a few times
    8. 8. CONFERENCE MATERIAL COVERED • Service industries • Statistical Process Control • Process improvement • Quality improvement • Keywords: SPC, LEAN, Six Sigma, run charts • Design of experiments – originally from agriculture (mainly) • But now used by engineers and scientists.
    9. 9. EXAMPLES AND PROGRAMS • Examples • Hotel – reduce breakages of plates • Hotel – customer survey of what was important to them • Hotel – how to get an increase in bookings • Oil company - optimising the use of lubricants in drilling • Oil company – reducing noise in a telescopic handler • Airline company – are planes fully loaded, what are flight delays • Design of a machine part • Automobile company – optimal sheet metal forming process • Programs • JMP (SAS) – healthcare to do Six Sigma • Stat-Ease – Design Expert (to do DoE)
    10. 10. SOME EXAMPLES • SPC • DoE
    11. 11. SPC - AN EXAMPLE FROM TELECOMMS A typical assembly line of the period • Apprentice in electronics company • Learn what various departments did • Milling, lathes, welding • Test equipment • Telephone assembly • Latter - several assembly lines • Columns of workers (on different tasks) • Initially – poor quality phones • Required better quality telephones Ford assembly line (1913). Photo: (Author unknown) via Wikimedia Commons.
    12. 12. DOE - AN EXAMPLE FROM TELECOMMS • Amplifier – but anyone with electronic experience would realise it is a simple and unrealistic example • 3 elements • Resistor (20 Ω +- 5% - i.e. 2 options, 19 Ω and 21 Ω) • Capacitor (10 μF +- 5% - i.e. 2 options) • Microstrip lines (10 μm +- 5% - i.e. 2 options) • 23 gives 8 experiments – full factorial • Look at amplifier output – i.e. the gain for each experiment • Designers can turn a standard design into a robust one that gives the highest yield
    13. 13. OPTIONAL – PAPER HELICOPTER EXPERIMENT • The academic paper (Box, 1991) • The design • Scissors • A4 paper • Understand variation • Ask questions about causes of variation
    14. 14. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT • Box and Woodall (2012) • To be innovative you have to do experiments and make mistakes ? • Does innovation stifle quality ? • Approaches to innovation : • Inductive-deductive • Lateral thinking • Group discussion in an informal setting • Thoughts about how the conference audience use these approaches • For competitive advantage, to be market leader, gain business value
    15. 15. THAT WAS IT – 2 DAYS IN TURKEY
    16. 16. REFERENCES • • • • Box and Woodall (2012) Innovation, Quality Engineering, and Statistics Box and Lui (1999) Statistics as a Catalyst to Learning I Box (1999) Statistics as a Catalyst to Learning II Box (1991) Teaching Engineers Experimental Design with a Paper Helicopter • Clarke & Kempson (1997) Introduction to the Design & Analysis of Experiments • • • Lloyd R (2012) An Introduction to the Model for Improvement Lloyd R (2012) Building Skills in Data Collection & Understanding Variation Lloyd R (2012) Using Run Charts & Control Charts to Understand Variation • W Edwards Deming (1989) Out of the Crisis
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