David E. Bloom  Department of Global Health and Population Harvard School of Public Health Global Scenario 2: Demography a...
Objectives <ul><li>Facts  about global population </li></ul><ul><li>Force  of population change </li></ul><ul><li>Future  ...
World population milestones   World population in billions Population and year Time taken to add a billion 1 billion in 18...
Reverend Thomas Malthus <ul><li>the original “population pessimist” </li></ul><ul><li>Essay on Population, 1798 </li></ul>...
Two recent steps forward <ul><li>The “demographic dividend” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>baby booms, busts, and echoes </li></ul>...
Two recent steps forward <ul><li>the “demographic dividend” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>baby booms, busts, and echoes </li></ul>...
Future demographic and population health indicators and their implications
Key patterns and trends in health/demographics <ul><li>A growing population </li></ul><ul><li>Declining fertility </li></u...
Key Trend #1a Sharp rise in population size UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key Trend #1b Population growth, but at a declining rate UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #2 Declining fertility UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #3 Increasing longevity UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #4 Modest migration: poor to rich countries UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision Countries averaging >10...
Max Frisch (1911-1991) <ul><li>“ We wanted workers,  but we got people instead.” </li></ul>
Key trend #5a Changes in median age of population   UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #5b Trends in working-age population share UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #5c Population aging in China and India   UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #5d Abundance of adolescents and young adults  UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key Trend #6a We’re at the urban “tipping point”
Urbanization: Boon or Bane?
Key Trend #6b Megacities and beyond…. Tokyo Mexico City New York Sao Paulo
Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679) <ul><li>Life in the state of nature is &quot;solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.“ </li></...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Demography and Health (ICLEI World Congress 2009)

789

Published on

Published in: Health & Medicine, Technology
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
789
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
18
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Demography and Health (ICLEI World Congress 2009)

  1. 1. David E. Bloom Department of Global Health and Population Harvard School of Public Health Global Scenario 2: Demography and Health
  2. 2. Objectives <ul><li>Facts about global population </li></ul><ul><li>Force of population change </li></ul><ul><li>Future of population </li></ul>
  3. 3. World population milestones World population in billions Population and year Time taken to add a billion 1 billion in 1804 About 1,000,000 years 2 billion in 1927 123 years 3 billion in 1960 33 years 4 billion in 1974 14 years 5 billion in 1987 13 years 6 billion in 1999 12 years 7 billion in 2012 13 years 8 billion in 2025 13 years 9 billion in 2045 20 years
  4. 4. Reverend Thomas Malthus <ul><li>the original “population pessimist” </li></ul><ul><li>Essay on Population, 1798 </li></ul><ul><li>“ the irrepressible passion between the sexes…” </li></ul>
  5. 5. Two recent steps forward <ul><li>The “demographic dividend” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>baby booms, busts, and echoes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the “iron law of demography” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>good policy environment </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Two recent steps forward <ul><li>the “demographic dividend” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>baby booms, busts, and echoes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the “iron law of demography” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>good policy environment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ healthier means wealthier” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>labor productivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>education </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>savings </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FDI </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Future demographic and population health indicators and their implications
  8. 8. Key patterns and trends in health/demographics <ul><li>A growing population </li></ul><ul><li>Declining fertility </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing longevity </li></ul><ul><li>Modest migration: poor to rich countries </li></ul><ul><li>Changing age structures </li></ul><ul><li>Urbanization </li></ul>
  9. 9. Key Trend #1a Sharp rise in population size UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
  10. 10. Key Trend #1b Population growth, but at a declining rate UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
  11. 11. Key trend #2 Declining fertility UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
  12. 12. Key trend #3 Increasing longevity UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
  13. 13. Key trend #4 Modest migration: poor to rich countries UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision Countries averaging >100,000 migrants/yr, 2000-2005 (figures are in thousands) Top sending countries (accounting for 59% of all emigrants) Top receiving countries (accounting for 72% of all immigrants)
  14. 14. Max Frisch (1911-1991) <ul><li>“ We wanted workers, but we got people instead.” </li></ul>
  15. 15. Key trend #5a Changes in median age of population UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
  16. 16. Key trend #5b Trends in working-age population share UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
  17. 17. Key trend #5c Population aging in China and India UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
  18. 18. Key trend #5d Abundance of adolescents and young adults UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
  19. 19. Key Trend #6a We’re at the urban “tipping point”
  20. 20. Urbanization: Boon or Bane?
  21. 21. Key Trend #6b Megacities and beyond…. Tokyo Mexico City New York Sao Paulo
  22. 22. Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679) <ul><li>Life in the state of nature is &quot;solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.“ </li></ul><ul><li>( Leviathan , 1660) </li></ul>
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×