David Pearson Laurentian University ICLEI Edmonton 17 June, 2009  Bailing out the Planet
After IPCC 2007 beyond  collective adaptation Limits to adaptation - cumulative critical impacts EU  goal “ dangerous” Ine...
Potential impact of sea level rise on the Nile delta <ul><li>Impact of sea level rise is not only loss of homes but also  ...
1993-2003 ≈ 30 mm = 3.0 mm/yr;  compare 1910-1990 = 1.5±0.5 mm/yr. Sea-level rise is accelerating mm ACIA, 2004 From Holdr...
Raising the temperature of 1 km of water at 20 0 C  by 1 0 C will cause it to expand by about 20 cm
Clathrates – methane ice  … a temperature sensitive sleeping giant in sea floor sediments
Absorption of Sun’s energy by a greater area of open water warms the region …. melting permafrost and releasing methane th...
Permafrost thaws when T ≥ 0°C ACIA 2004 Methane bubbles In ice on a  permafrost lake Katey Walter   Permafrost is thawing
Andrew Weaver Emissions are rising faster than the worst  of the IPCC Scenarios (A1FI)
What science projects about the next 100 years compared to the last 400 Coloured   lines pre-2000 are proxy-based temperat...
2050 2009 14 7 Billion of tons of carbon in CO2 and methane emitted per year 1955 0 Past emissions 2100 Initial reduction ...
Global Commons Institute
 
Carbon stored  in Alberta’s Oil Sands 170 billion barrels of oil  420 kg of CO 2 equivalent  per barrel = 18 billion tonne...
Change in run-off water availability in 2050 compared with 1961-1990 (emission scenario A1)
Evaporation of water from reservoirs has exceeded consumption since the 1970s
Easterling and Apps, 2005 Temperate-zone crop yields start dropping at local ∆T ≥ 1-2°C Drops are more gradual than  in tr...
Easterling and Apps, 2005 Crop yields in tropics start dropping at local ∆T ≥ 1-1.5°C Where we’re headed:  agriculture in ...
Major floods per decade from 1950 - 2000  John Holdren 2007
John Holdren 2007 Major wildfires by decade 1950 - 2000
Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Management for Adaptation  Informed  Decision  Making Informed  Decision  Making Informe...
 
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Climate Change -David Pearson - (ICLEI World Congress 2009)

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  • This was a great but disturbing talk. If you are interested in hearing the audio that went along with these slides, I've posted it here: http://openalex.blogspot.com/2009/06/bailing-out-planet-dr-david-pearson.html
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  • Whatever you think of bailing out General Motors or giving huge amounts of money to banks, you have to be impressed by the enormous sums of money govts have been able to find so quickly; This is system we invented but v,few people predicted it would collapse. But it is the systems that operate here – the planet’s systems that are really in trouble – and thousands of scientists in the IPCC have been predicting that for years. And the situation is even worse than they have predicted. Have to have a sense of real URGENCY
  • Moberg mit Sedimenten für den langfristigen Trend Oerlemans: Gletscher Aus den Punkten 1-3 folgt fast zwangsl ä ufig diese weitere Erw ä rmung
  • “ The Wedge Model is the IPOD of climate change: You fill it with your favorite things.” David Hawkins, NRDC, 2007. Adopt a 50-year focus Anticipate a portfolio of options Emphasize the scale-up of what we already know how to do
  • Whatever you think of bailing out General Motors or giving huge amounts of money to banks, you have to be impressed by the enormous sums of money govts have been able to find so quickly; This is system we invented but v,few people predicted it would collapse. But it is the systems that operate here – the planet’s systems that are really in trouble – and thousands of scientists in the IPCC have been predicting that for years. And the situation is even worse than they have predicted. Have to have a sense of real URGENCY
  • Climate Change -David Pearson - (ICLEI World Congress 2009)

    1. 1. David Pearson Laurentian University ICLEI Edmonton 17 June, 2009 Bailing out the Planet
    2. 2. After IPCC 2007 beyond collective adaptation Limits to adaptation - cumulative critical impacts EU goal “ dangerous” Inevitable intolerable
    3. 3. Potential impact of sea level rise on the Nile delta <ul><li>Impact of sea level rise is not only loss of homes but also </li></ul><ul><li>Destruction of sand bars protecting lagoons and reclaimed land </li></ul><ul><li>One third of Egypt’s fish catch comes from the lagoons </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural land lost </li></ul><ul><li>Alexandria, Port Said plus tourist resorts flooded </li></ul><ul><li>Ground water becomes salty </li></ul><ul><li>(Dykes could lessen flooding from 0.5m rise but </li></ul><ul><li>not the salination of ground water) </li></ul>
    4. 4. 1993-2003 ≈ 30 mm = 3.0 mm/yr; compare 1910-1990 = 1.5±0.5 mm/yr. Sea-level rise is accelerating mm ACIA, 2004 From Holdren 2007
    5. 5. Raising the temperature of 1 km of water at 20 0 C by 1 0 C will cause it to expand by about 20 cm
    6. 6. Clathrates – methane ice … a temperature sensitive sleeping giant in sea floor sediments
    7. 7. Absorption of Sun’s energy by a greater area of open water warms the region …. melting permafrost and releasing methane that, in turn, accelerates warming 1979 2003 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
    8. 8. Permafrost thaws when T ≥ 0°C ACIA 2004 Methane bubbles In ice on a permafrost lake Katey Walter Permafrost is thawing
    9. 9. Andrew Weaver Emissions are rising faster than the worst of the IPCC Scenarios (A1FI)
    10. 10. What science projects about the next 100 years compared to the last 400 Coloured lines pre-2000 are proxy-based temperature reconstructions by different groups. Gray wedge for 2000-2100 shows the range of IPCC global average projections based on different emission scenarios (A2) The recent ghg emission trend ( blue arrow) leads by 2100 to temperatures not reached since ~3 million years ago when sea level was 25 - 30m higher. Jumps in the trend may result from abrupt C releases The European Union’s global goal ( green emission trend) is not to exceed 2 ºC above pre-industrial temp: the onset of “dangerous climate change” likely too late. B1 After John Holdren 2007 ~ 400 ppm
    11. 11. 2050 2009 14 7 Billion of tons of carbon in CO2 and methane emitted per year 1955 0 Past emissions 2100 Initial reduction of emissions using improved existing technologies Stabilizing global avge temp rise below 2 0 C is an unprecedented technological, political, ethical, and social challenge Emissions peak 2020 - 2030 Deep reduction with new low C technologies David Pearson (Developed from Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow 2005) 2080 tripling CO2 Emissions 60 – 80% below 1990 level Beyond limits to adaptation ADAPTATION
    12. 12. Global Commons Institute
    13. 14. Carbon stored in Alberta’s Oil Sands 170 billion barrels of oil 420 kg of CO 2 equivalent per barrel = 18 billion tonnes of Carbon (D.P.) per Alberta’s Oil Sands Forests of Papua New Guinea
    14. 15. Change in run-off water availability in 2050 compared with 1961-1990 (emission scenario A1)
    15. 16. Evaporation of water from reservoirs has exceeded consumption since the 1970s
    16. 17. Easterling and Apps, 2005 Temperate-zone crop yields start dropping at local ∆T ≥ 1-2°C Drops are more gradual than in tropics, but still significant. Where we’re headed: temperate-zone agriculture
    17. 18. Easterling and Apps, 2005 Crop yields in tropics start dropping at local ∆T ≥ 1-1.5°C Where we’re headed: agriculture in the tropics Rice Corn
    18. 19. Major floods per decade from 1950 - 2000 John Holdren 2007
    19. 20. John Holdren 2007 Major wildfires by decade 1950 - 2000
    20. 21. Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Management for Adaptation Informed Decision Making Informed Decision Making Informed Decision Making Informed Decision Making OCCIAR 2009 Analyse Current Climate Impacts and Vulnerability Analyse Climate Data and Scenarios Build Adaptive Capacity Assess Climate Change Risk Implement Risk Reduction, Monitor, Evaluate and Adjust Risk Reduction Method & Plan Development

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