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Changing Dynamics of Asian Solvents Markets
 

Changing Dynamics of Asian Solvents Markets

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    Changing Dynamics of Asian Solvents Markets Changing Dynamics of Asian Solvents Markets Presentation Transcript

    • Changing Dynamics of Asian Solvents Markets By Peh Soo Hwee, Senior Editor Helen Lee, Editor Liu Xin, Editor
    • agenda
      • Market review
      • Price drivers
      • Supply/demand
      • Outlook
      • Producers aim to raise IPA and MEK prices above $900/tonne CFR Asia on the back of rising costs.
      • Attempts hampered by weak demand.
      • Reduced IPA and MEK operating rates in the region.
      The Markets Today
    • IPA
    • MEK
    • China IPA imports 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    • China MEK 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    • South Korea
      • Asia’s largest MEK market. Imports totalled 74,000 tonnes in 2008.
      • Shrinking import demand for IPA, est. at around 20,000 tonnes in 2008. Market demand size at 70,000 tonnes, domestic makes up the rest.
      • Demand growth in derivative inks and coatings sector capped by competition from China and SE Asia.
      South Korea
    •  
    • What NEXT
    • Cost push could see higher prices in H2. Pick-up in demand in Jul-Aug ahead of Ramadan (SE Asia) and in late Aug-Oct in China. Sustained price recovery expected earliest by 2010/2011. Modest growth of less than 5% in inks and coatings sector over next few years. Diversification into higher-end coatings (saturation of decorative coatings).
    • MEK longer-term outlook: MEK imports likely to shrink with ADD expected to stay in place and new plants coming on stream (Lanzhou). China as opportunistic exporter of MEK. Korea to remain key import market in Asia, limited growth in SE Asia.
    • MEK new capacities On hold 30,000 30,000 Yanbian Petrochemical On hold 30,000 30,000 Maoming Petrochemical Sep 2009 60,000 30,000 Lanzhou Petrochemical Q4 2008 110,000 80,000 Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Date Total capacity (t/yr) New capacity (t/yr) Company
    • IPA longer-term outlook: Imports into China expected to be more or less stable in the next few years. Korea turned net exporter in 2008, imports to shrink. SE Asian growth hinges on demand from coatings, oleo-chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
    • Ethyl Acetate & Butyl Acetate Market & Trends July 2009 Helen Lee Markets Editor ICIS Pricing Asia
    • Agenda
      • Product Uses
      • Feedstocks – Acetic Acid, Ethanol & Ethylene
      • Downstream trends
      • China etac/butac exports
      • New capacities
      • Outlook
    • Ethyl Acetate Usage Butyl Acetate Usage Product Usage
    • Feedstocks Acetic Acid content: Ethyl Acetate 68%, Butyl Acetate: 53% Ethylene content: Ethyl Acetate 70-80%
    • Naphtha to Ethyl Acetate Korea Alcohol and LCY restart ethylene-based ethyl acetate plants.
    • Chinese Domestic Ethanol to Ethyl Acetate
    • Acetic Acid to Ethyl Acetate
    • Propylene to Butyl Acetate
    • Source : International Development Association of Furniture Industry of Japan Source: International Development Association of Furniture Industry of Japan Butyl Acetate – Wood/furniture Coatings
    • Growing Exports from China * Ethyl Acetate 2006: 109,399 tonnes 2007: 137,030 tonnes 2008: 183,897 tonnes 2009: 62,115 tonnes (Jan to May) * Butyl Acetate 2006: 12,782 tonnes 2007: 15,922 tonnes 2008: 11,643 tonnes 2009: 8,440 tonnes (Jan to May)
    • New Ethyl Acetate Capacities Onstream 1 July ‘09 Otake, Hiroshima, Japan 50,000 (bioethanol-based) Daicel Industries Onstream Oct ‘09 Jiangsu, China 100,000 (ethanol integrated) Taixing Jinjiang Chemical (Jiangmen Handsome) Onstream early ’08 - idled Aug ‘08 Weifang, Shandong province, China 100,000 Shandong Haihua Full Nanchang, Jiangxi province, China 80,000 Nanchang Ganjiang Solvents Factory 90% Tengzhou, Shandong province, China 100,000 Yankuang Cathay Coal Chemicals Status Location Capacity (tonnes/year) Producer
    • New Butyl Acetate Capacities Onstream Oct ‘09 Jiangsu, China 50,000 Taixing Jinjiang Chemical (Jiangmen Handsome) Study Zhenjiang, Jiangsu province, China 50,000 Jiangsu Sopo Study Fujian, China 50,000 Quanzhou Chuangyuan Chemical Status Location Capacity (tonnes/year) Producer
    • Outlook
      • Moderate price fluctuations expected, along with squeezed margins
      • Flexible Operating Rates
      • Low inventory to minimise risk
      • Conservative buying/trading activity
    • Asian Acetone Market Liu Xin Markets Editor ICIS pricing, Asia
    • Acetone margins squeezed Source: ICIS pricing
    • Import margin narrows Source: ICIS pricing & CBI
    • Rise of SE Asian imports China acetone imports 2009 China acetone imports 2008 Source: China customs statistics Zero tariff boosts ASEAN acetone exports to China
    • Losing momentum… Source: China customs statistics
    • New capacities 2009 Sep-2009 (+) 40ktpa, (T) 100ktpa Sinopec Gaoqiao petchem End-2009 350ktpa Sinopec Tianjin petchem Start-up Capacity Company
    • Shutdown schedule 2009 early August for 23 days phe 112.5; ace 67.5 Beijing Yanshan Petchem 29 June - mid July 2009 phe 72; ace 48 Heilongjiang Bluestar Harbin Petchem 15 May - 20 June 2009 phe 120; ace 80 Caojing Gaoqiao Petchem No shutdown schedule phe 200; ace 124 Mab Ta Phut PTT No shutdown schedule phe 300; ace 185 Kaohsiung Chang Chun No shutdown schedule phe 340; ace 204 Kaohsiung TPCC mid Jan - early Feb 2009 phe 400; ace 250 Mailiao FCFC No shutdown schedule phe 260; ace 160 Yeocheon LG Chem 7-22 May 2009 phe 250; ace 155 Yeocheon Kumho No.3 7-22 May 2009 phe 100; ace 60 Yeocheon Kumho No.2 Idle phe 30; ace 20 Yeocheon Kumho No.1 21 May - end June 2009 phe 250; ace 150 Kashima Mitsubishi Chemical 15 May - 20 June 2009 phe 300; ace 180 Singapore Mitsui Chemicals 4 July - end July 2009 phe 200; ace 120 Osaka Mitsui Chemicals No shutdown schedule phe 190; ace 114 Chiba Mitsui Chemicals 20 March- mid April 2009 phe 230; ace 80 Chiba Mitsui Chemicals ( KTPA ) Turnaround Capacity Location Producer
    • Thank you [email_address] [email_address] [email_address]