Mekong ARCC - Final workshop - Socio-Economic Study

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  • 1. Social and economic systems John Sawdon Seng Somnchamnavong Try Thuon Paul Wyrwoll International Centre for Environmental Management Bangkok, 28th March 2013
  • 2. Contents • Baseline • Impact and vulnerability • Adaptation • Cross-sector analysis
  • 3. BASELINE
  • 4. Key socio-economic trends in the LMB • Poverty: Falling poverty, but still widespread • Population: Falling fertility, but current population (≈65m) to rise and peak to 2050 • Migration: Rural-urban, rural-rural, inter-regional • Food security: Falling over time, but high vulnerability remains in many areas; food price fluctuations • Agricultural production: Movement towards commercial production;  trade in agricultural commodities • Hydropower development and land concessions: Transformation of ecosystems and local economies in rural areas (mainly Lao PDR and Cambodia)
  • 5. 1. The rural poor are dependent on ecosystem services 2. Livelihood portfolios are highly diverse 3. Small-holder and subsistence family-based production is dominant (70-80%) – and will be for decades to come 4. Even subsistence farmers purchase a large share of their food 5. All countries in the basin contain particular groups whom remain chronically poor, or are vulnerable to poverty and food insecurity Key characteristics of rural livelihoods in the LMB
  • 6. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR Source: WFP 2007 Own production  Fishing/Hunting  Gathering  Purchase  Other source
  • 7. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR Source: WFP 2007 1  Own production  Fishing/Hunting  Gathering  Purchase  Other source
  • 8. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR Source: WFP 2007 1 2  Own production  Fishing/Hunting  Gathering  Purchase  Other source
  • 9. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR Source: WFP 2007 1 2 3  Own production  Fishing/Hunting  Gathering  Purchase  Other source 71%
  • 10. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR Source: WFP 2007 1 24 3  Own production  Fishing/Hunting  Gathering  Purchase  Other source 71%
  • 11. 5. Vulnerability to poverty and food insecurity • Rates of severe poverty (<$1.25) have declined significantly • Significant proportions of the population remain below the $2 threshold • Still greater number remain vulnerable to poverty: - Cambodia – approx. 65% < $2.5 - Lao PDR – approx. 78% < $2.5 - Viet Nam - approx. 58% < $2.5 Source: WDI 2013
  • 12. NTFPsAgriculture Fisheries LivestockLivelihoods Health Infrastructure
  • 13. The significance of health and infrastructure for livelihoods • Inadequate health limits the capacity of individuals to engage in livelihood activities • Infrastructure enables households and communities to pursue and benefit from livelihood activities • Rural infrastructure: Physical, stationary infrastructure such as roads, bridges, housing, water supply, irrigation infrastructure, and grain storage
  • 14. Health: Child mortality in LMB countries • Improvements in health conditions generally, but limited access in many areas and remaining high vulnerability
  • 15. Infrastructure: Water supply • Note that improved water source ≠ safe water source • Despite broad improvements, weak and insufficient infrastructure in many remote rural areas, particularly roads
  • 16. IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY
  • 17. Vulnerability and impact assessment (CAM) • Health key impacts: – Heat stress – Water-borne disease – Vector-borne disease – Physical injury or death caused by extreme weather • Infrastructure key impacts: – Damage and destruction caused by extreme weather – Lack of access to infrastructure – Gradual degradation over time • Focus on direct impacts for both sectors
  • 18. Ecological zones Livelihood zones  Forested uplands  Intensively used uplands  Lowland plains and plateaus  Floodplain  Delta
  • 19. Livelihood zone summary
  • 20. Livelihood zones and Hot Spot provinces Forested uplands (FU), Intensively used uplands (IUU), Floodplain (F), Lowland plains and plateaus (LPP), Delta (D)
  • 21. Livelihood zones in Mondulkiri province
  • 22. Very High Vulnerability – Health Summary • Key threats by province (zone): - Chiang Rai: flooding (F) - Gia Lai: temperature rise (IUU), flash floods and landslides (IUU) - Khammouan: floods (LPP, F), flash floods and landslides (FU) - Kien Giang: floods (D) - Mondulkiri: temperature rise (FU, LPP), drought (LPP), floods (LPP)
  • 23. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Mondulkiri – LPP, FU) Threat: Temperature rise Impact: Heat stress • Days exceeding 35°C to rise from 5% to 25% on annual basis • 35°C (sustained) threshold for heat stress • Outdoor livelihoods • Lack of infrastructure (electricity limited in rural areas) • High poverty (37%) and poor health access (maternal mortality within 1 month = 7.2%)
  • 24. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Khammouan – LPP, F) Threat: Flooding Impact:  incidence of water- borne, vector-borne disease • 20% increase in rainfall at beginning and end of wet season • Post-flood stagnant water pools provide disease vector breeding ground (e.g. mosquitoes) • Lack of access to safe drinking water during flood events • Poor health: on average each woman death of one child (survey)
  • 25. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure Summary • Key threats by province (zone): - Chiang Rai: flooding (F) - Gia Lai: flash floods and landslides (IUU) - Khammouan: floods (LPP, FU), flash floods and landslides (FU) - Kien Giang: floods (D) - Mondulkiri: landslides (FU), floods (LPP)
  • 26. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Gia Lai - IUU) Threat: frequency of flash floods and landslides Impact: Destruction and degradation of infrastructure • 10%-20%  magnitude of extreme rainfall events • Land-clearing on sloping land • Destruction of roads or prevention of road access • Destruction/degradation of other rural infrastructure, such as buildings, irrigation infrastructure
  • 27. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Kien Giang - D) Threat: Increased duration and frequency of floods (sea level rise) Impact: Extended slow-onset flooding degrading infrastructure • ≈ 27% province area projected to have flood depth >1m for more than 2 months per year • Roads and bridges eroded • Buildings water-damaged or destroyed • Groundwater supply infrastructure contaminated
  • 28. ADAPTATION
  • 29. Additional effects of development on climate change vulnerability • Rapid economic growth, but current course is unsustainable because of the degradation of ecosystem services • Access to natural resources and ecosystem services is critical to the vulnerability of rural livelihoods • Factors affecting ecosystem services: – Hydropower development – Land concessions – Deforestation, illegal logging, poaching – Population growth and migration • Climate change placing stress on an already stressed system
  • 30. Adaptation context • Current study seeks to provide potential adaptation options in areas with similar social and ecosystem characteristics across the LMB • Local application would require dedicated research and community participation into climate change impacts and specific vulnerabilities, as well as appropriate cross-sectoral adaptation strategies
  • 31. Categories of adaptation strategies – Health 1. Addressing the adaptation deficit due to poor health access (in both physical and economic terms) 2. Centralised warning and response systems for vector- borne and water-borne disease 3. Incorporating climate change into the design, technology, and location of health-related infrastructure 4. Protection of ecosystem services that support community food security and health
  • 32. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Mondulkiri – LPP, FU) Threat: Higher maximum temperatures Impact: Heat stress Examples of potential adaptation strategies: • Improve maternal and pediatric healthcare, including child immunization programs • Improve access to safe water and sanitation, including covered groundwater bores, rainwater tanks, water treatment technology, and covered latrines • Construction of heat respite community centres for the benefit of vulnerable groups • Education programs regarding heat stress
  • 33. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Khammouan – LPP, F) Threat: Increased frequency and duration of floods Impact:  incidence of water-borne, vector-borne disease Examples of potential adaptation strategies: • Strengthen institutional capacity for provision of forecasting, early warning systems, and effective response for flooding and water-borne and vector-borne disease • Education programs regarding water-borne disease
  • 34. Categories of adaptation strategies – Infrastructure 1. Implementation and maintenance of community-based bioengineering projects 2. Revision of design standards to incorporate climate change 3. Revision of infrastructure planning given threats posed by climate change, particularly the location of key infrastructure such as roads, community buildings, and dwellings • Bioengineering refers to the use of vegetation and natural materials to improve slope and shoreline stability
  • 35. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Gia Lai - IUU) Threat: Increased frequency of flash floods and landslides Impact: Destruction and degradation of infrastructure Examples of potential adaptation strategies: • Reforestation and other locally managed bioengineering initiatives in riparian and sloping areas, especially those linked to strategic rural infrastructure • Climate-sensitive design, siting and maintenance of major infrastructure in areas highly vulnerable to extreme events
  • 36. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Kien Giang - D) Threat: Increased duration and frequency of floods Impact: Extended slow-onset flooding degrading infrastructure Examples of potential adaptation strategies: • Improvements to canal networks that are required to cope with more intense flood events, particularly to ensure effective drainage of fields and waterways • Strengthen natural coastal protection from inundation through community-based rehabilitation and protection programs, particularly for mangrove ecosystems
  • 37. CROSS-SECTOR ANALYSIS
  • 38. Socio-economic overview of Mondulkiri • Population: ~ 47,000 (2004); ~ 62,000 (2010) • Poverty: Poorest province in Cambodia: 37% by national standards • Food security: Classified as chronically food insecure by World Food Programme in 2009 • Livelihoods: – Mix of subsistence and commercial activities – Reliance on natural resources – Multiple activities
  • 39. NTFPsAgriculture Fisheries LivestockLivelihoods Health Infrastructure
  • 40. Cross-sector climate change impacts: Mondulkiri • Agriculture: 3% rice yield, cassava suitability  Food security and health; gathering NTFPs; livestock feed availability • Natural systems: resin production, earthworm habitat  Income for food security and health, investments in livestock and infrastructure; decline in trapeang ecosystems that support livestock and NTFPs
  • 41. Cross-sector climate change impacts: Mondulkiri • Livestock: drought and flash floods cause livestock fatalities  Food security and health; fishing; capacity to invest in agriculture • Fisheries: migratory white fish that are important seasonal harvest production for subsistence households  time available agriculture and NTFP collecting for the rest of the year
  • 42. Cross-sector climate change impacts: Mondulkiri • Health: temperature generates heat stress conditions  Illness labour productivity in agriculture, NTFPs • Infrastructure: flooding damages roads and reduces access, thereby isolating communities  water-borne disease and causing health impacts; reduced access to NTFPs • Above discussion focuses on just some 2nd order effects not 3rd or 4th order; multiple and enduring feedbacks within the system
  • 43. Climate change has a multiplier effect across sectors, not simply an additive impact Mondulkiri illustration
  • 44. Integrated Adaptation • Integrated policies, structures, procedures and tools • Use of local knowledge and community participation pivotal to success • Spatial planning is foundation for adaptation at site level • Recognise the trade-offs involved between sectors when preparing area-wide adaptation plans • Seek out ‘win-win’ solutions, or complementary approaches, available across sectors – Efficient – Mutually reinforcing – Likely to achieve wide stakeholder support
  • 45. THANK YOU