Mekong ARCC - Final Workshop - Agriculture Study

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Mekong ARCC – Final Workshop – Agriculture Study

A presentation from the International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM)
> Further information: www.icem.com.au

This presentation for the Mekong ARCC project was given by ICEM’s personnel and consultants Olivier Joffre, Dang Kieu Nhan, Bun Chantrea and Jorma Koponen at the Final Workshop in Bangkok – held in March 2013.

The presentation highlights the findings from the Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment on the agriculture sector in the Lower Mekong Basin. It presents changes in basin-wide crop suitability, changes in hot spot crop yields and provides a vulnerability assessment for key crops in hot spots. The land use suitability evaluation tool (LUSET) was used to evaluate the suitability of specific land units for a range of crops. For each location suitability is based on climatological characteristics such as rainfall, drought and temperature, and each crop has its special requirements which are affected positively or negatively by climate change.

> Read more about Mekong ARCC on the ICEM website www.icem.com.au

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Mekong ARCC - Final Workshop - Agriculture Study

  1. 1. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for agriculture Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Study Bangkok 28 March 2013 ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management Olivier Joffre Dang Kieu Nhan Bun Chantrea Jorma Koponen 1a
  2. 2. Contents 1. Overview of the methodology 2. Baseline – Agriculture in the Lower Mekong Basin 3. Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment i. Changes in Basin-wide crop suitability ii. Changes in Hot Spot Crop yields iii. Vulnerability assessment for key crops in hot spots 4. Adaptation Options 2
  3. 3. Overview of the methodology 3a
  4. 4. Agriculture Vulnerability Assessment process EXPOSURE SENSITIVTYX = IMPACT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY/ VULNERABILITY = 4 AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS BASELINE Key Crop Species Farming systems characterization MEKONG HYDROCLIMATE MODELLING & ASSESSMENT Crop Yield modelling Crop suitability modelling Sector assessment Changes in climate & hydrology Expert Consultation Review of Past experience ADAPTATION
  5. 5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Basin wide assessment approach • Identified 8 hotspot provinces representing each of the 12 ecozones • Developed farming system profiles for each ecozone – Subsistence farming (small-scale) – Commercial farming (small & large scale) • Identified key crops for subsistence & commercial agriculture – Rice – Cassava – Maize – Rubber – Coffee – Sugarcane – Soya 1. Chiang Rai 2. Sakon Nakhon 3. Khammoun 4. Champassak 5. Mondolkiri 6. Gia Lai 7. Kampong Thom 8. Kien Giang 5
  6. 6. Agriculture Baseline Assessment 6a
  7. 7. Agriculture in the LMB - Livelihoods: - 65 million people - 45% of population are considered poor - 70% of population’s livelihoods rely on agriculture - Changes in productivity of subsistence and commercial cropping systems will influence: - Local livelihoods - Rural and national economies - Regional food security 7
  8. 8. Rapid growth in LMB agriculture • Agriculture is a dynamic sector. • The production of the major crops has doubled in the last 20 years, primarily due to: • intensification of production, with higher yields rather than larger cultivated areas. • Some new areas for cultivation are opening in Lao PDR, the Vietnamese Central Highlands and Cambodia 8
  9. 9. Agriculture in the LMB remains reliant on rainfall • Key staple crops are predominately rain-fed, • Other emerging commercial crops (maize, soya or cassava) are also mostly rain-fed. • LMB agriculture is highly sensitive on climate and especially on rainfall frequency and distribution. 9 Source: MRC 2011
  10. 10. Farming systems in the LMB 1. Rice-based farming systems • Rainfed rice (75% of total agricultural area) • Upland rainfed rice • Lowland rainfed rice • Irrigated rice 2. Other annual crops: vegetables, maize, soya, cassava, sugarcane, etc. 3. Perennial crops 1. Industrial crops: black pepper, coffee, rubber, etc. 2. Fruits Annual Rice Perennial 10
  11. 11. LMB Farming systems 11 Intensive Rice Rubber Coffee Sugarcane Soya Rainfed rice Cassava Maize Lowland rainfed & irrigated rice Subsistence Commercial Smallholder Small-Large holder Shifting Plantation Trend • Diverse growing conditions have led to the development of diverse farming systems • General historic trend towards larger farm holds and commercial farms
  12. 12. 12 Provinces Ecozones Rice Cassava Maize Soya Sugarcane Coffee Rubber Chiang rai High-Mid-Low, Floodplains X X X X Sakon Nakhon Mid & Low elevation X X X X Khammouane High & Low elevation X X X X X Champasak High-Low, Floodplains X X X X X Mondulkiri Mid & Low elevation X X X X Kampong Thom Low elevation, Floodplains X X X X Gia Lai High & Low elevation X X X X X X Kien Giang Delta swamp X Key crop distribution in hot spot provinces
  13. 13. Baseline assessment – Summary findings Crops Systems Locations Trends (area) Existing problems Growth drivers and Impact Upland rice Subsistence High-mid elevation Increase (Lao PDR) Drought Flash Flood • Population growth • Urbanization (labour, food demand, land and water use) • Market demands and foreign investments (animal feed, bio- fuel, rubber, etc.) • Nation food security & export policies • Natural resource degradation and environmental changes Lowland rice Subsistence – Commercial Mid & Low elevation & delta Decline Rainfed (Increase irrigated) Drought, flood, salinity intrusion Annual commercial crops (Subsistence) – Commercial High-low elevation Changing with crops and areas Drought, soil erosion, flood Perennial industrial crops Commercial High-mid elevation Increase Drought, groundwater depletion, soil erosion Fruits Commercial Delta Stable Flooding, salinity intrusion
  14. 14. Basin wide Crop suitability assessment 14a
  15. 15. Climate suitability model • LUSET – Land use suitability evaluation tool (IRRI) • Evaluates the suitability of each land unit (grid cell) for a single type of land use type (single crop). • For each location suitability is based on climatological characteristics such as rainfall, drought and temperature • Each crop has its special requirements • Suitability is expressed with a scale of 0 - 100 and transformed into suitablity classes
  16. 16. Crop Tolerances 16 Crop parameter unit Cassava annual rainfall mm/a drought months mean T C mean daily max T C annual rainfall mm/a drought months mean T C mean daily max T C av daily min T of the coldest month C Maize growing cycle rainfall mm/cycle first month rainfall mm/month second month rainfall mm/month third month rainfall mm/month fourth month rainfall mm/month fifth month rainfall mm/month growing cycle T C growing cycle mean daily min T C rainfall in first months mm/month rainfall in ripening stage mm/month growing cycle T C av daily max T of the warmest month C second month T C av daily min T of the coldest month C Rubber annual rainfall mm/a drought months mean T C mean daily max T C Soya growing cycle rainfall mm/cycle first month rainfall mm/month second month rainfall mm/month third month rainfall mm/month fourth month rainfall mm/month growing cycle T C growing cycle mean daily min T C Coffee Robusta Rain fed rice
  17. 17. Rubber
  18. 18. Coffee
  19. 19. Cassava
  20. 20. Hotspot crop yield assessment 20a
  21. 21. Rain fed rice yield • Increase in Eastern Khorat Plateau + 5% – 20% • Driver: increased rainfall Baseline Change in 2050
  22. 22. Average annual rainfed rice yields in the selected provinces Baseline (t/ha) % Change in 2050 Change in production (tons) Chiang Rai 3.4 -4.8 - 30,000 Sakon Nakhon 2.1 4.6 + 27,000 Khammouane 3.4 -0.1 Not significant Champasack 2.9 -5.6 - 11,000 Gia Lai 3.3 -12.6 - 20,000 Mondulkiri 2.1 -3.0 -1,114 Kampong Thom 2.2 -3.6 - 15,000
  23. 23. Average annual maize yields in the selected provinces Baseline (t/ha) Change by 2050 (%) Change in production (tons) Chang Rai 4.22 -3.13 - 6,500 Khammouane 4.74 -5.03 <1,000 Champasack 5.08 -5.55 -2,000 Gia Lai 3.54 -12.09 - 24,000 Kampong Thom 3.06 -5.97 <1,000
  24. 24. Vulnerability assessment for key crops Hot Spots 24a
  25. 25. Key climate change threats 1.Increase in temperature 2.Increase in precipitation 3.Decrease in precipitation 4.Decrease in water availability 5.Increase in water availability 6.Droughts in the rainy season 7.Flooding 8.Flash flood 9.(CO2 fertilization) 25
  26. 26. Assessment criteria: Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity • Change in magnitude of hydroclimate parameters • Change in frequency and duration of the change Physiological crop tolerances i.e. comfort zones Internal factors: • biophysical factors (tolerant crops, soil, water,…) External factors: • Farmer’s capacity – farming technologies and accessibility to services • Support systems: extension services, infrastructure, institution, etc 26
  27. 27. CHAMPASSAK PROVINCE CASE STUDY OVERVIEW 27
  28. 28. Current farming systems 28 0 30 60 90 Rainfed rice Irrigated rice Maize Cassava Soya Coffee Rubber Area(103ha) • Largest land holdings in Lao PDR (2.1ha per HH) with rice as main crop – >70% lowland rainfed rice cultivated during the wet season – <20%farmers cultivate both in dry and wet season. • Lowland rice supplemented with additional rainfed crops for subsistence (chilli, banana, sweet potato, beans etc...) • Small holder coffee is dominant in the Bolovens plateau • Cassava culture is booming, based on smallholder and contract farming • Rubber concessions cover large areas
  29. 29. Key climate change threats for Robusta coffee Climate Change Threats Sensitivity Increased temperature High temperature (> 32oC) in the dry season affects coffee growth and production Increased rainfall Optimal water supply is 1750 mm/year, with high suitability ranging from 1600 to 2400 mm and a dry period for flower initiation in March-April Decreased rainfall Decreased precipitation during dry season causes water stress. Drought Long dry spells (> 20 days) can affect the production due to water stress Flash floods Flash floods (> 250 mm/day) in upland and/or upstream areas that creates a sudden water level rise (rivers, stream) and carries debris, damaging coffee plant/production. Storms Coffee can suffer from strong winds flash flood generated by storms. CO2 increase Increase of CO2 might have an impact on growth and water use efficiency 29
  30. 30. Projected changes in temperature 2050 30 Champassak Summary Vulnerability Assessment 40% increase in proportion of dry season >32°C
  31. 31. Effects of increased temperature on coffee Exposure: Very high • 80% of days with Ave. Max. temp. > 32ºC in Jan – Nov, • 20% of days with extreme max. temp > 36ºC in Jan – Oct. Sensitivity: Medium High dry season temperatures can increase evapotranspiration and increase water stress Impact: High Reduced productivity Adaptive Capacity: Medium -Internal capacity: Medium -External capacity: High; shade-management practice Vulnerability Score: High 31 Threat: High temperature (> 32oC) in the dry season affects coffee growth and production
  32. 32. Champassak - Summary of vulnerability for key crops CC threat Irrigated rice Lowland rainfed rice maize Cassava Rubber coffee Increased temperature High High Medium Medium Medium High Increased rainfall Low Medium High High Low High Decreased rainfall Medium Medium Low Medium Droughts Low Low Low Medium Medium Flooding Low Medium Medium Medium Flash floods Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Storms Low High Medium High Medium High CO2 increase Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium
  33. 33. Summary of VA for key crops: high vulnerability Provinces Rainfed rice Irrigated rice Cassava Maize Soya Sugar- cane Coffee Rubber Chiang Rai High (temp) Medium Medium High (temp) Sakon Nakhon High (temp) High (rain, flood) Medium High (temp) Kham- mouane High (temp, storm) Medium High (rain, storm) High (rain, storm) High (rain, storm) Medium Cham -pasak High (temp, storm) High (temp) High (rain, storm) High (rain) High (temp, rain, storm) Medium Mondulkiri High (Storm) High (storm) High (rain, storm) Medium Kampong Thom High (temp, flood) High (temp, flood) High (flood) High (lower water, temp, flood) Medium Gia Lai High (temp) High (temp) High (flood, flash flood) High (storm, flash flood) Medium High (temp) Medium Kien Giang High (SLR, salinity) Medium-High (SLR, salinity,temp)
  34. 34. Vulnerability Assessment Conclusions 34a
  35. 35. 35 • Both rainfed and irrigated rice are highly vulnerable to: • increased temperature in the wet season • salinity intrusion (in the delta) • Altitude shift for Robusta coffee, rubber and cassava: • Become more suitable in northern parts with an increase in temperature • Suffer from droughts and a decrease in water availability in central parts • Cassava, soya and maize: less suitable with an increase in rainfall in the wet season and more frequent storm. • Annual rainfed crops, (specially soya) are more vulnerable to increase rainfall during the harvest period
  36. 36. 36 • Coffee is highly vulnerable to increased temperature in the wet season • Rubber and sugarcane are relatively robust crops to changes in climatic parameters • Effect of increased rainfall in the wet season on rainfed rice: • Negative impact in “wet” areas like Champasak, Khammouane, Gia Lai. • Positive impacts in a “dry” area like Sakon Nakhon.
  37. 37. Adaptation Options 37a source:Proximity
  38. 38. Adaptation approach based on improving resilience of farming system 38 Improve rainfed and irrigated system and reduce vulnerability to hazard Improve water efficiency and water management techniques Improve soil management and soil fertility in plains, plateau and uplands Agriculture technique to mitigate GhG Diversification of cropping system ADAPTATION Strategies Improve weather forecast for farm planning
  39. 39. Adaptation option for Rice Based Systems • New varieties and risk management strategies – Shorter varieties/ early maturation varieties to avoid the flood or allow a double rice crop – Tolerant varieties: • “Scuba rice” (tolerant to flood) • Varieties tolerant to drought for dry spell • Varieties to tolerant to Heat and salinity (coastal zone) Adoption by farmers in Cambodia: using multiple varieties to spread the risk. • Diversification with cash crops : Short term crop following the monsoon crop based on residual moisture 39
  40. 40. Adaptation option for Rice Based Systems • “System of Rice Intensification” – Based on principles of improved management of your rice field – Diversity or practices and gradual adoption of the technical packages – Improved water, fertilizers and labour uses and improved yield; – Reduce the vulnerability to climatic event (storm, drought) – Reduce GhG in irrigated systems 40 source:Africare 2010
  41. 41. Access to Irrigation • Groundwater/ Small scale water storage – Dry season crop (small dam in Cambodia enabling double rice crop) – Supplementary irrigation (mini ponds in Bangladesh) – Diversification with intensive homestead gardening (Drip irrigation in Cambodia, Myanmar) 41 source:UNDP 2011
  42. 42. Water Saving technology and Rain water Harvesting • Reducing flooding rice field to alternate flood/dry rice fields • Green mulch technique + clays to improve water retention • Rainwater Harvesting – in tanks or ponds – Multipurpose: supplementary irrigation, double cropping, horticulture (drip irrigation) or domestic water uses 42 source:Proximity
  43. 43. Soil & fertility management • Maximum yield is far from being reach • Commercial mono-agriculture: destruction of soil structure • Potential options: – “Urea Deep placement” for a better efficiency of the fertilizer. – SRI approach reduce the use of fertilizer – Conservation agriculture improve soil structure, increase organic matter in the soil and promote nutrient availability for the crop 43source:CIRAD source: IFDC
  44. 44. A Climate Change resilient rural community (adapted from IDe _Cambodia) 44 1. Dynamic • Enhanced capacity to change • Information access (about the change and solutions) 2. Diversified • Within and outside the farming enterprise 3. Technically well skilled • Access to advice and inputs Provide the farming community with a variety of options that can be employed depending on the climate conditions
  45. 45. Requires an In depth Analysis of Community Vulnerability and needs before any intervention • Design adaptation option(s) at the community level – Need to acknowledge the diversity of agricultural practices and agro- ecosystem at the community level – Need to take into account the past and current interventions – In depth assessment of local community farming system vulnerabilities. 45

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