International student visa and enrolment trends for the MESDC

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The market share of students enrolled to study in the five main English-speaking destination countries (MESDC: Australia, New Zealand, United States, United Kingdom and Canada) continues to decline due to increased competition.

A major factor in steering the global flow of international students is immigration and visa policies. Over the last four years, a number of significant changes have been made to student visa policies which have impacted international student enrolment numbers.

This presentation provides an overview of key student visa policy changes in the MESDC, and how these changes have impacted international student enrolment trends. Additionally, it briefly examines some of the events and challenges currently facing these countries such as increased global competition, the strong exchange rate and the Streamlined Visa Process (SVP) in Australia.

For more industry news, market intelligence, research and commentary for international student recruitment please visit http://www.icefmonitor.com, subscribe for daily or weekly updates, and follow us on Twitter http://www.twitter.com/icefmonitor.

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International student visa and enrolment trends for the MESDC

  1. 1. International student visa and enrolment trends for the MESDC Presented at the ICEF Australia New Zealand Agent Workshop, Brisbane, 17 April 2013 PARESH KEVAT This is a presentation
  2. 2. In today’s session Global Student Mobility Student Visa & Enrolment trends Current Events & Challenges Going Forward
  3. 3. Global Tertiary Education Global tertiary enrolments (by region) 2010: 177.7 mill 2000: 99.9 mill This plot shows the number of students enrolled in tertiary education globally between 1970 and 2010. The number of tertiary students grew from 99.9 million in 2000 to 177. 7 million students in 2010 (representing an average annual growth rate on 5.9%).
  4. 4. Global Student Mobility (Tertiary) Global Student Mobility is the movement of students from a source country to another destination country for the purposes of study . 2010 4.2 m 2025 7.0 m Long term growth in the number of students enrolled outside their country of citizenship In 2010, approximately 4.2 million foreign students enrolled outside their country of citizenship to study. By 2025 this number is estimated to increase to 7 million.
  5. 5. Global Student Mobility Outbound Inbound 2010 4.2 m Top 3 share (2009) = 28.7% 5 MESDC share (2009) = 38.3% Source: OECD and UNESCO Institute for Statistics These plots show the source and destination country volumes of foreign students travelling for tertiary studies.
  6. 6. Definitions STUDENT VISA endorsement, Student visa, is a special endorsement, which allows its holder to study at an institution of higher learning in the issuing country ENROLMENT The registration of a person with an education or training provider for the purpose of undertaking a course or module. COMMENCEMENT A commencement is a new student enrolment in a particular course at a particular institution.
  7. 7. Main English Speaking Destination Countries United Kingdom New Zealand Canada United States Australia
  8. 8. MESDC - Domestic & Int’l tertiary enrolments This chart shows the total number of domestic and international students for each of the MESDC countries. The number in the black circle is the proportion of international students as a percentage of total students. Source: Open Doors, HESA, UKCISA, CIC, AIE, Education NZ
  9. 9. MESDC – overall trends Source: Open Doors, HESA, UKCISA, CIC, AIE, Education NZ Enrolments Visa grants
  10. 10. MESDC – visa grant trends (top 3) The top 3 source countries represented 52.1% of all student visa grants in the USA in 2012 Proportion of top three source countries: Source: US Department of Homeland Security, UKBA, DIAC, CIC, Immigration NZ
  11. 11. MESDC - top 3 countries (HE enrolments*) The top 3 source countries represented 48.0% of all International HE student enrolments in the USA in 2012 Source: Open Doors, HESA, UKCISA, CIC, AIE, Education NZ
  12. 12. Work & Post Study Work WORK DURING STUDY POST GRADUATION EMPLOYMENT UK Up to 20 hours a week during term-time & 40 hours a week during holidays – but only for students at universities and publicly funded further education colleges Post-study work opportunities will be limited from April 2012. Non-EU/EEA graduates from UK institutions will no longer be allowed an automatic two-year job search period after graduation, but they will need to find employment sponsorship or a job offer with a minimum salary. USA No. of hours varies depending on type of student visa. A J-1 student visa allows study-related work during term-time (needs to be approved by HE) . An F-1 student visa allows students to apply for a work visa to undertake employment related to the student’s field of study for up to 20 hours a week, but to obtain this work visa, students must have been enrolled in US higher education for at least one year. International students that graduated in the US can apply for a temporary post-study work visa for up to three years. This visa allows temporary work in selected occupations only, including science, engineering and computer programming. Australia Up to 40 hours a fortnight during term-time and holidays – no separate work permit is required. Can work unlimited hours during vacation. Graduate Work Stream - 18 months Post Study Work Visa: Bachelor & Masters by coursework – 2 years Masters by Research – 4 years Doctorates graduates – 4 years Canada Up to 20 hours a week of on-campus employment on a study permit, or up to 20 hours a week of off-campus employment on a separate work permit Up to 20 hours a week during termtime and holidays – no separate work permit is required International students can apply for a post-study work visa only after having studied in Canada for at least eight months. Post-study work opportunities are possible on a “skilled graduate visa”, which allows graduates to live and work Source: US Department of Homeland Security, UKBA, DIAC, CIC, NUFFIC Report
  13. 13. Student Visa Policy – New Zealand Immigration Policy Changes Figure 6: Summary table of recent student visa policy changes The NZ Government has introduced a raft of changes to student visa policy over the last two years as it aims to make NZ more competitive in the global student market. Source: Immigration NZ
  14. 14. NZ Trends Source: Immigration NZ data Source: Education NZ, Immigration NZ
  15. 15. Australia - Student Visa Policy Changes 2008 – 2013 2008 25/04/2008 25/04/2008 25/04/2008 17/12/2008 17/12/2008 2009 24/03/2009 12/05/2009 12/05/2009 12/05/2009 19/07/2009 19/07/2009 19/07/2009 19/07/2009 1/07/2009 23/07/2009 20/08/2009 9/11/2009 9/11/2009 A streamlined process is introduced for people applying for student visas from India, Indonesia and Thailand. Overseas students granted automatic rights to work up to 20hrs/wk Students no longer require a visa label on their passports. Student visa fees decreased from $490 to $450. Students enrolled in courses not on Criticalshortages list will need to find a sponsor to be considered for permanent residency International students have access to 485 visa which allows them to work for 18 months. Raids on migration agents in Melbourne for providing fake documentation for PR applications Changes to Skilled migration program English language thresholds increased for GSM (effective 1 Jul 2009 onshore and 1 Jan 2010 Offshore) Job readiness test introduced from 1 Jan 2010 Govt responds to violence against indian students - meet community leaders to ease safety concerns International Student Taskforce established to develop strategies for well-being of international students. Govt fast-tracks review of framework for ESOS Act Guide to Studying & Living in Australia updated Student visa fees increased from $450 to $540 Minister of Education announces he will travel to India to assure Indian Australia is a safe country Govt announced increased number of applicant interviews and enhanced document checks for high risk applicants from India, Nepal, Brazil, Zimbabwe and Mauritius. Closure of Providers - Govt announces exemption of $540 visa fee from 1 Jan 2010 for Intl students affected by closure of education providers Evidence of funds for living costs increased from $12,000 to $18,000 effective 1 Jan 2010 Source: DIAC
  16. 16. Australia - Student Visa Policy Changes 2008 – 2013 2010 9/11/2010 8/02/2010 9/02/2010 7/05/2010 17/05/2010 1/07/2010 20/12/2010 To date 150 agents have had their eVisa access suspended due to evidence of fraud or inactivity MODL list revoked and Skills Occupation List (SOL) list tightened only to occupations in high demand Govt announces students still able to apply for PR if their occupation is on the new SOL list. Students studying a course not on SOL List have till end of 2012 to apply for the 485 visa (allows them to work for 18 months) Govt states Australia's migration program is not and should not be determined by the courses studied by international students. Release of final report of Baird Review Assessment levels for postgraduate research (subclass 574) reducd to AL1 and AL2 Decision makers given greater discretion to cancel a student visa Changes made to course packaging arrangements - now need to meet the highes assessment level of courses in the package instead of principle course Govt temporarily suspends lodgement of three visa classes offshore General Skilled Migration New SOLS list released - focussed on targeting occupations that require a long lead time of formal educ and training Students now required to hold Overseas Student Healthcover for themselves and dependents Govt annouces a strategic review of the student visa program. 2011 1/01/2011 1/04/2011 1/05/2011 22/09/2011 5/11/2011 5/11/2011 5/11/2011 5/11/2011 1/12/2011 Students studying diploma/advanced diploma courses to be assessed under HE subclass 573 Student visa assessment levels for 38 countries reduced. Govt announced alternative English Language tests acceptablefor student visa applications Govt accepts all recommendations of the Knight Review Stage one implementation of the Knight Review changes Introduction of Genuine Temporary Entrant requirements Introduction of Fraud Public Interest Criteria Reduction in financialrequirements for AL3 and AL4 student visas. The automatic conversion of Student Course Variations (SCVs) to Non-Compliance Notices (NCNs) ceased. 9/02/2010 9/03/2010 27/03/2010 1/03/2010 27/03/2010 Source: DIAC
  17. 17. Australia - Student Visa Policy Changes 2008 – 2013 2012 1/01/2012 1/03/2012 24/03/2012 24/03/2012 24/03/2012 24/03/2012 24/03/2012 24/03/2012 1/04/2012 1/04/2012 2013 23/03/2013 Discussion paper on Review od Student Visa Assessment level framework released. Stage 2 Implementation of Knight Review changes: Introduction of the Streamlined Visa Process Change in working conditions from 20 hrs/wk to 40hrs/fortnight Limit on number of hours Higher Degree by Research students removed Increase in English language study period from 40 to 50 weeks for Schools scetor Student Guardian visa holders able to do unlimited ELICOS on p/T basis Assessment levels for 29 countries reduced requiring lower evidentiary requirements for the grant of a student visa Chinese students no longer require a visa label on their passport removal of mandatory cancellation requirement for unsatisfactory attendance or unsatisfactory progress or working in excess of the hours allowed Changes to the Temporary Graduate Visa (subclass 485) and Introduction of Post Work Study Visa Source: DIAC
  18. 18. Australia - Student Visa Lodgements & Grants July 2007 to Dec 2012 need to find sponsor Closures, funds incr. Cancel MODL Source: DIAC Access to 485 visa Australia’s Reputation Post Study Work Options
  19. 19. Latest enrolment trends by sector - Australia Source: DIISRTE Enrolments numbers ytd Feb 2013, numbers are down across all sectors and four of the 5 top source countries Source: DIISRTE
  20. 20. Forecast for 2013 Source: AEI Enrolments numbers up to Feb 2013 are similar to 2008 numbers. If this trend continues, enrolments for 2013 will be somewhere between 530,000 and 550,000 for the year.
  21. 21. Streamlined Visa process Commenced on 24 March 2012, the Department of Immigration and Citizenship started to assess student visa applicants who lodge their applications with a Confirmation of Enrolment (CoE) from a participating university in Australia at Bachelor, Masters or Doctoral degree level as though they were a lower migration risk (similar to the current Assessment Level 1), regardless of their country of origin. RESPONSIBILITIES: 41 Universities & nominated business partners. University is responsible for the genuineness of the student. Universities can ask for financial details and funds to be submitted. BENEFITS Visa applications will be processed quickly. Students will have reduced evidentiary requirements. Source: DIAC Source: Statistics New Zealand
  22. 22. Getting prepared for SVP Genuine Temporary Entrant GTE) MANAGE YOUR: Process Systems Resources Source: Statistics New APPROACH TO EDUCATION RISK MANAGEMENT Zealand
  23. 23. Post-study work visas Skilled Graduate Temporary Visa (subclass 485) Graduate Work Stream (subclass 485) Effective 23 March 2013 Post-Study Work Visa Bachelor & Masters by coursework – 2 years Masters by Research – 4 years Doctorates graduates – 4 years Source: Statistics New Zealand
  24. 24. More Information Details of the SVP are available at: www.immi.gov.au Visa Assessment Levels: www.immi.gov.au/students/student-visaassessment-levels.htm Source: Statistics New Zealand
  25. 25. Challenges
  26. 26. New developments in education The ‘Technology Outlook for Australian Tertiary Education 2013-2018, report has recently identified 12 areas of technological development that will be important within the next five years for education in Australia. The four technologies impacting in the near-term are: MOOCS (Massive Open Online Courses) Learning Analytics Social learning, and Mobile Media. Link to report: www.nmc.org/pdf/2013-Technology-Outlook-for-Australia-Tertiary-Education.pdf
  27. 27. MOOCS – Massive Open Online Courses Source: various: newspaper clips, webpages, blog
  28. 28. MOOCS developments in Australia Arts & Humanities Business Finance Health & Medicine Management Marketing & Advertising www.open2study.com
  29. 29. Looking Ahead (What next?) • Get prepared for the Streamlined Visa Process • Learn about latest emerging developments and the latest technologies • Source good quality data and use the appropriate tools for analysis and make evidence based decisions • Evaluate your business strategy and plan realistically • Make use of your professional links and diversify (such as partner with local institutions overseas) • Get actively involved in social media
  30. 30. Roundup Global Student Mobility Student Visa & Enrolment trends Current Events & Challenges New Initiatives
  31. 31. Contact details ? Paresh Kevat @pareshkevat paresh@kevat.com This was a http://au.linkedin.com/pub/paresh-kevat/0/a4b/53a presentation
  32. 32. PRESENTER About the PARESH KEVAT Principal Consultant Specialising in business intelligence, education and research in the international education sector, Paresh is the principal consultant at GOMDA Consulting. Prior to this, he worked as a Business Intelligence Analyst for a student recruitment company in Melbourne for three and a half years. His key areas of expertise include business analytics; data management, forecasting, research and critical analysis of complex data sets, using data sourced from Australian and International sources for business reporting, strategic planning and evidence-based decision making. Over the last four years, Paresh has prepared and conducted seminars and presented at major international education conferences in Australia and New Zealand. Prior to joining the education sector, Paresh has worked for over fourteen years in a variety of professional roles working with data analysis and management, in a range of companies in Australia and New Zealand. He holds a Bachelor of Technology degree in Biotechnology & Bio-Process Engineering from Massey University and a Graduate Certificate in Business from Swinburne University. For more information please visit: http://www.gomdaconsulting.com DISCLAIMER: This document has been produced by GOMDA Consulting for the ICEF ANZA Workshop. The information provided here is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

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