The red line (1000-1860) shows the 50-year average, and the gray region the 95% confidence limit in the annual data. The red line (1860-2000) shows the decadal average. Over the period 2000 to 2100, projections are shown of globally averaged surface temp for the six illustrative SRES scenarios and IS92a as estimated by a model with average climate sensitivity. The grey region – ‘several models all SRES envelope”
Nearly one in three Asians today lives on less than one US dollar per day. The climate models project a warming of at least 2.5°C over Asia by the end of the century. According to the Global Human Development Report 2007/08, Nepal’s Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.534 is the lowest for South Asia and less than the average for the developing countries. The incidence of poverty is 31 percent
Water vapour is the most abundant greenhouse gas. However, human activities have little direct impact on its concentration in the atmosphere. In contrast, we have a large impact on the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. In order to be able to compare how different gases contribute to the greenhouse effect, a method has been developed to estimate their global warming potentials (GWP). GWPs depend on the capacity of greenhouse gas molecules to absorb or trap heat and the time the molecules remain in the atmosphere before being removed or broken down. The GWP of carbon dioxide is 1 (constant for all time periods) and the GWPs of other greenhouse gases are measured relative to it. Even though methane and nitrous oxide have much higher GWPs than carbon dioxide, because their concentration in the atmosphere is much lower, carbon dioxide remains the most important greenhouse gas, contributing about 60% to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect.
A range of scenarios can be used to identify the sensitivity of an exposure unit to climate change and to help policy makers decide on appropriate policy responses. It is important to emphasize that climate scenarios are not predictions, like weather forecasts. Weather forecasts make use of enormous quantities of information on the observed state of the atmosphere and calculate, using the laws of physics, how this state will evolve during the next few days, producing a prediction of the future - a forecast. In contrast, a climate scenario is a plausible indication of what the future could be like over decades or centuries, given a specific set of assumptions. These assumptions include future trends in energy demand, emissions of greenhouse gases, land use change as well as assumptions about the behavior of the climate system over long time scales. It is largely the uncertainty surrounding these assumptions which determines the range of possible scenarios. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) provides 40 different scenarios. The choice of climate scenarios and related non-climatic scenarios is important because it can determine the outcome of a climate impact assessment. Extreme scenarios can produce extreme impacts; moderate scenarios may produce more modest effects. It follows that the selection of scenarios can also be controversial, unless the fundamental uncertainties inherent in future projections are properly addressed in the impact analysis.
A plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships, that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change, often serving as input to impact models. Climate projections often serve as the raw material for constructing climate scenarios, but climate scenarios usually require additional information such as about the observed current climate. A “climate change scenario” is the difference between a climate scenario and the current climate.
Substantial Warming (3.5 o C – 5 o C )
Source: Sharma, DHM
The National Communication indicates that overall precipitation in Nepal is decreasing at the rate of 9.8mm/decade, using data from 1981-1999, and that monsoon precipitation increased at 8.4mm/decade over the same period (National Communication 2004). The IPCC however, cite studies indicating that there has been no long term trend in precipitation in Nepal for the period 1948-1994 (IPCC 2007b). This highlights the fact that even for current trends, it is much harder to accurately assess precipitation. Positive trend (~30 mm/decade) at Chaurikharka- closest met stn from site. But trend is much higher in teria and apparently annual rf trend decrease with elevation with much smaller trend (+ve or –ve) at high altitude
TN10p Cool nights Percentage of days when TN<10th percentile Days TX10p Cool days Percentage of days when TX<10th percentile Days TN90p Warm nights Percentage of days when TN>90th percentile Days TX90pWarm days Percentage of days when TX>90th percentile Days
Climate Change Science & Role of Youth Dhiraj Pradhananga The Small Earth Nepal
energy and material consumption for the last 4 decades is faster than population growth
an irresistible economy seems to be on a collision course on within immovable ecosphere
The Living Planet Index measures trends in the Earth’s biological diversity 09/27/11 SEN-DP Between 1970 and 2003, the index fell by about 30%. This global trend suggests that we are degrading natural ecosystems at a rate unprecedented in human history. Biodiversity suffers when the planet's biocapacity cannot keep pace with human consumption and waste generation Since the late 1980s, we have been in overshoot–the Ecological Footprint has exceeded the Earth’s biocapacity–as of 2003 by about 25%.
Living Planet Report 2000 (30 years from 1970 to 1997)
Earth’s natural ecosystems has declined by 33%
Ecological pressure of humanity on the Earth has increased by 50%
09/27/11 SEN-DP Ecological pressure of an average consumer in the industrialized countries is FOUR times that of an average consumer in the lower income countries
Effectively, the Earth’s regenerative capacity can no longer keep up with demand – people are turning resources into waste faster than nature can turn waste back into resources. Humanity is no longer living off nature’s interest, but drawing down its capital. This growing pressure on ecosystems is causing habitat destruction or degradation and permanent loss of productivity, threatening both biodiversity and human well-being.
The Global Aspects Taught by Gandhi “ If every inhabitant of this earth were to consume as much as the inhabitants of the wealthy countries, we would need a second Earth .” But the present data tells us we already need a third Earth if everyone consumed the same amount of fossil fuel.
Climate change is already under way and will increasingly affect the basic elements of life for people around the world.
" Adverse effects of climate change" means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare ” (Art 1. UNFCCC, 1992). Calorie availability in 2050 is likely to have declined relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world, resulting in 24 million additional malnourished children , 21% more relative to a world without climate change (IFPRI, 2009).
Vulnerability of developing world to climate change
Rely on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries
Low GDP, high levels of poverty
Low levels of education
Limited human, institutional, economic, technical and financial capacity
It is the chemical composition which has changed the most significantly in the last 200 years
Some of the main greenhouse gases Name Pre-ind conc ppmv 1998 con ppmv Atmosph lifetime yr Main anthropogenic source GWP Water 1 to 3 1 to 3 Few days CO 2 280 365 Variable Fossil fuels, cement, land use change 1 CH 4 0.7 1.75 12 Fossil fuels, rice paddy, waste dumps, livestock 23 N 2 0 0.27 0.31 114 Fertilizers, combustion 296 CHF 3 0 0.000014 260 Electronics, refrigerant 12000 SF 6 0 0.0000042 3200 Dielectric fluid 22200
Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC)
Change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural variability observed over comparable time periods (UNFCCC)
A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer) EARTHSCAN 2007
Climate Scenario Plausible representations of the future that are consistent with assumptions about future emissions of GHG and with our understanding of the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of these gases on global climate.
Summer Monsoon Western disturbances 26º 22' N - 30º 27' N Lat. 80º 4'E - 88º 12'E Long. 0 200 400 100 Kilometers India China Iran Pakistan Myanmar Thailand Afghanistan Laos Nepal Cambodia Bangladesh Oman Bhutan Sri Lanka Turkmenistan Malaysia 0 130 260 65 Kilometers
Increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events (> 100 mm/day) (Source: DHM) Number of days with rain >= 100 mm 1977 1992, 35 1987, 106 1998 1975 1982 y = 0.5997x + 61.417 R 2 = 0.0984 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Days
Temperature extremes are shifting to warmer regime
Likely to cause significant decrease in water availability, specially decrease in snowfall amount in winter
This will seriously deplete the moister available for the winter crop.
Thus, rapidly altering (warming) climatic condition might have negative impact on productivity of local crop varieties and might also damage habitat of important medicinal plants.
The combined effect of increased temperature and decrease snowfall will also reduce the snow mass available for melting in dry period (pre-monsoon) when snowmelt is the major component of river flow and thus affect the livelihood condition on downstreams as well.
(Practical Action/SEN, 2009)
Rasuwa (Jibjibe at border of Bhorle and Dhaibung, between two big landslides)
Impact severity in ranking: Landslide, Hail storm and lighting, Drought, Flood, Snowfall
Heavy rain during short period - increased
Village is at very high risk due to landslides; transportation got hit most significantly; local labor got impacted due to the road destruction but getting more jobs as no transportation. Due to risk of landslide, all the settlement was in situation of replacement.
Temperature increase significantly since 6-7 years; Mango is seen (growing well) and other plants from low land is now growing here, and is considered positive impact of climate change.
The Small Earth Nepal 626 Bhakti Thapa Sadak Naya Baneshwor Tel: +977-1-4782738 Email: [email_address] URL: http://www.smallearth.org.np
Climate Change Impact in Nepal Message take HOME
developing countries are, in particular, disproportionately vulnerable to climate change
most affected by climate variability and extreme events are the poor and vulnerable
estimated impact of weather-related disasters in developing countries 20-30 times larger than in industrialized countries (Jovel, 1989)
Climate change will most likely exacerbate these problems (McCarthy, 2001)
“ I am no longer skeptical …climate change is the major challenge facing the world” Sir David Attenborough “ Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism” Sir David King The Atlas of Climate Change Mapping the world’s greatest challenge