1. Status and Constraints of Wheat Seed System in CWANA for Rapid Delivery of Resistant Varieties International Wheat Stripe Rust Symposium 18-20 April 2011 ICARDA, Aleppo, Syria Zewdie Bishaw Seed Section, ICARDA
2. Outline of the Presentation <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Status of Wheat Seed Sector in CWANA </li></ul><ul><li>Approaches for Rapid Seed Delivery </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul>
3. Source: FAOSTAT 2011 Wheat: Importance in CWANA Region In 2008, wheat is a single most important commodity; and on average occupies 27% of cultivated area in CWANA Region Total area cultivated (x1000 ha) Wheat area harvested (x1000 ha) Wheat (% of cultivated area) East and North Africa 65,568.0 7,535.8 11.5 West Asia 89,912.1 27,493.0 30.6 CAC 34,736.4 16,594.9 47.8 Total 190,216.5 51,623.7 27.1
4. Source: FAOSTAT 2011 Wheat: Production and Productivity in CWANA Region In 2008, CWANA covers 23% of global wheat area, but produces 14% and achieved a productivity of 61% (world) and 25% (Western Europe) Region Area harvested (x1000 ha) Production (x1000 t) Average yield (t/ha) CAC 16,594.9 24,752.5 1.5 West Asia 27,493.0 55,064.4 2.0 East and North Africa 7,535.8 16,956.3 2.3 CWANA 51,623.7 96,773.2 1.9 CWANA (% World) 23 14 61 CWANA (% West Europe) 545 137 25
5. <ul><li>Modern varieties are defined outputs of agricultural research --result of investments </li></ul><ul><li>Seed remains a delivery mechanism for agricultural innovations --varieties and technologies </li></ul>Why Seeds? Biotechnology Plant Breeding Agronomy Seed Technology (Varieties and Seeds) Farmers
6. Evolution of Formal Seed Sector Consolidation Diversification Expansion Emergence Specialization Public seed sector Private seed sector Public seed corporations Seed projects Developed Countries Developing Countries Small (family) seed enterprises Medium size seed enterprises Large seed companies (seeds, inputs) MNCs Emergence Expansion Maturity Diversification Commercial orientation Integration Service orientation Lack of integration
7. <ul><li>Developing seed industries </li></ul><ul><li>Functioning infrastructure for cereals, some legumes & forages </li></ul><ul><li>Independent agency for variety release & seed certification </li></ul><ul><li>Main regulations exist supporting the seed sector </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing private sector participation </li></ul><ul><li>Intermediate seed industries </li></ul><ul><li>Functioning infrastructure for few cereals, none for legumes, forages </li></ul><ul><li>Adhoc variety release and quality control </li></ul><ul><li>Existing laws are old or deficient in many aspects </li></ul><ul><li>Limited or no private sector participation </li></ul><ul><li>Least developed seed industries </li></ul><ul><li>No formally organized seed sector exists, limited infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>No procedures or regulations for variety release & quality control </li></ul><ul><li>Adhoc seed production coordinated by agricultural research/DoA </li></ul><ul><li>Limited or lack of trained manpower in the seed sector </li></ul>Status of Seed System in CWANA Region <ul><li>Central Asia & Caucasus </li></ul><ul><li>Historically… </li></ul><ul><li>Centrally-planned and fully controlled system with few varieties, BUT production of large seed quantities </li></ul><ul><li>Dominated by large public seed production units with little commercial or market influences (seed allocation) </li></ul><ul><li>Currently… </li></ul><ul><li>After independence, e volving to market-economy, but not yet fully functional </li></ul><ul><li>Diversification of agriculture (new crops) and emergence of diverse clients (private farms, small farmers) </li></ul>
8. Wheat area planted to semi-dwarf wheat varieties (%) from 1970- 1997 _________________________________________________ Region 1970 1977 1983 1990 1997 _________________________________________________ World 14 33 50 67 81 Asia 19 42 55 74 86 China 0? 10? 31? 60? 79 India 36 74 76 87 92 Other Asia 51 74 87 91 94 L. America 11 24 68 82 90 SSAfrica 5 22 32 52 66 WANA 5 18 31 42 66 ________________________________________________ Source : Evenson and Gollin, 2003 Adoption of Modern Wheat Varieties-glimpses from 1990s
9. Weighted average age (years) of varieties in farmers' fields-1997 ───────────────────────────────────────────────── Country Age of Varieties ───────────────────────────────────────────────── Afghanistan , Zimbabwe <6 Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Guatemala, Pakistan 6-8 Bolivia, Colombia, Iran. Nigeria, Uruguay, Zambia 8-10 Ecuador, Morocco, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania 10-12 India, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Syria, Yemen 12-14 Algeria , Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Jordan, Nepal >14 Peru, Sudan, Tunisia, Turkey ───────────────────────────────────────────────── Source : CIMMYT Wheat Impact Database Varietal Replacement in Farmers’ Fields- glimpses from 1990s
10. Status of seed industry: varietal releases Number of released varieties (%) in selected countries (2010) From 2,572 released varieties, cereals (32%) and wheat (19%) altogether constitute 51% of releases Source: Seed Section and country reports
11. Amount of seed distributed (%) in selected countries (2006-09) Status of seed industry: seed availability From 1.1 million MT commercial seed supplied by formal sector, cereals (11%) and wheat (69%) together account for 80% of all seed distributed Source: Seed Section and country Reports
12. What is the share of formal wheat seed sector? Source: FAO STAT 2011 and Seed Unit Formal sector seed supply on average is close to 20% of wheat seed, but varies between regions and within countries Amount of seed distributed (%) by formal sector (2006-09) Area in ha Potential seed demand (t) Wheat seed supplied (t) Formal sector (%) Algeria (06-09) 1,614,712 220,761 75,060 34 Egypt (09) 1,311,262 183,577 40,335 22 Ethiopia (06-09) 1,520,700 228,105 15,486 7 Iran (05) 6,200,000 1,116,000 343,700 31 Morocco (06-07) 3,106,700 466,005 83,300 18 Pakistan (06-10) 8,750,700 1,093,838 247,621 23 Tajikistan (06-09) 320,140 64,028 28,698 45 Turkey (06-09) 8,194,425 1,638,885 202,149 12 Yemen (06-09) 123209 17249 1027 6 Total 31,000,948 5,007,313 1,015,976 20
13. What is the share of variety distribution? Few mega-varieties tend to dominate the formal seed supply and in some countries old varieties still persists Amount of wheat seed distributed (%) by formal sector in 2010 Egypt 2010 (CASP) Pakistan 2010 Variety Quantity % Variety Quantity % Sakha 93 8870 37.1 Seher-2006 215141 61.8 Giza 168 4783 20.0 Inqlab-91 18336 5.3 Sakha 94 3854 16.1 Faisalabad-08 18259 5.2 Beni Swief 1 2959 12.4 TD-01 14602 4.2 Gemmiza 9 1242 5.2 Shafaq-2006 12301 3.5 Others (9 vars) 2227 9.3 Others (54 vars) 69239 19.9 Total 23935 100.0 Total 347878 100
14. What is the share of varieties in farmers’ fields? Few mega-varieties pre-dominant in farmers’ fields among them old varieties: Bezostaja-1 (‘68) and Gerek79 (‘76) in Turkey (2007); Pavon76 (‘82) and ET13 (‘81) in Ethiopia (1998) County Crop Top variety (%) Top two (%) Top Three (%) Top four (%) Top five (%) Turkey-2007 Wheat Area (%) 28.0 37.4 46.5 51.6 55.8 Farmers (%) 23.1 31.3 41.0 46.7 52.1 Ethiopia-1998 Wheat (n=304) Area (%) 39.3 49.8 60.2 70.2 79.9 Farmers (%) 20.5 31.7 37.9 58 66.4 Syria-1998 Wheat (n=206) Area (%) 26.3 52.4 67 75.6 83.2 Farmers (%) 26 48.7 57.1 63.7 73.2
15. What are Trends in Wheat Seed Delivery?
16. What are roles of private sector in wheat seed delivery?
17. <ul><li>VARIETY DEVELOPMENT </li></ul><ul><li>IARCs: Public NARS vs Private sector </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of niche varieties-market segmentation </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of IPR to promote private sector research </li></ul><ul><li>VARIETY TESTING AND RELEASE </li></ul><ul><li>Lengthy variety trials with limited flexibility </li></ul><ul><li>Inadequate use of data from other sources </li></ul><ul><li>Time lag between release and seed availability </li></ul><ul><li>SEED PRODUCTION </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of functional seed units and facilities </li></ul><ul><li>Access to early generation by private sector </li></ul><ul><li>Low MF and high volume -more generations </li></ul><ul><li>SEED MARKETING AND PROMOTION </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of accurate forecast of ‘effective’ seed demand </li></ul><ul><li>Inadequate promotion of NARS varieties (PG, licensing) </li></ul><ul><li>Low varietal replacement rate (old varieties) </li></ul><ul><li>ENABLING POLICY ENVIRONMENT </li></ul><ul><li>Private sector entry: Incentives, investments capital </li></ul><ul><li>Promote certified seed use ($41.7/ha in Turkey) </li></ul>What are constraints for wheat seed delivery?
18. Popular Myths and Misconceptions <ul><li>Varietal replacement ≠ Seed replacement </li></ul><ul><li>Varietal adoption ≠ Certified seed use </li></ul><ul><li>Varietal adoption ≠ 100% ceiling-niche markets </li></ul><ul><li>Potential seed demand ≠ effective seed demand </li></ul><ul><li>Certified seed is expensive </li></ul><ul><li>Informal seed is of poor quality </li></ul>
19. Rusts are Threat to Global Food Security <ul><li>Historically new rust races emerged and spread from region to regions </li></ul><ul><li>All commercial wheat cultivars become susceptible overtime </li></ul><ul><li>IARCs and NARS are spearheading efforts breeding resistant varieties </li></ul><ul><li>Fast track variety release and rapid seed multiplication are key for combating the threats </li></ul>Approaches for Rapid Seed Delivery
20. Approaches for Rapid Seed Delivery-Key Components...2 <ul><li>Identifying rust resistant and high yielding wheat varieties with desirable characteristics in respective countries </li></ul><ul><li>Fast track variety testing and release (e.g. adaptation trials) by advocating flexible policy/regulatory options with partners </li></ul><ul><li>Accelerated pre-release seed multiplication of promising lines (breeder to basic) and large-scale production of released varieties (certified) for distribution through formal/informal channels </li></ul><ul><li>Popularization and promotion of rust resistant varieties with farmers (including targeted small-pack seed distribution) to initiate informal farmer-to-farmer diffusion </li></ul><ul><li>Capacity building in technical aspects of seed production and provision of infrastructure (training and critical equipment) </li></ul><ul><li>Creating awareness among policy makers, partner institutions and farmers on the imminent threat of rusts on food security </li></ul>
21. Approaches for Rapid Seed Delivery-seed multiplication...3 Accelerated Seed Multiplication Scheme Varietal purification and multiplication Breeder seed production Pre-basic seed production Formal Sector (public/private) Informal Sector (community -based) Stage 2 Basic seed production Pre-release seed multiplication Official variety release Variety release trials Formal and informal seed production and distribution Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 1 Stage 5 Large-scale seed multiplication Farmers Stage 0 Resistance lines identified for release trails Seed Production Variety Testing Variety popularization and promotion
22. <ul><li>Options to Accelerate Seed Multiplication? </li></ul><ul><li>Start with a larger initial quantity of seed </li></ul><ul><li>Raise multiplication factor through intensive management </li></ul><ul><li>Possible use off-season seed production </li></ul><ul><li>Use of regional approach to seed multiplication </li></ul><ul><li>Strengthening capacity and facilities </li></ul>Approaches for Rapid Seed Delivery...3
23. Approaches for Rapid Seed Delivery-seed multiplication...4 With 50 kg seed and at a seed rate of 100 kg/ha, it is possible to cover substantial area of wheat at MF of 30, 40 and 60 (i.e. 3, 4 and 6 MT/ha) Country Area under wheat cultivation in 2007 10% of wheat area % Area covered after four generations with MF 1:30 1:40 1:60 Afghanistan 2,190,000 219,000 18.4 58.4 100 Algeria 1,785,000 178,500 22.6 71.7 100 Egypt 1,139,000 113,900 35.6 100 - Ethiopia 1,351,000 135,100 29.9 94.7 100 Iran 6,400,000 640,000 6.3 20.0 100 Iraq 531,210 53,121 76.2 100 - Kzakhstan 12,876,700 1,287,670 3.1 9.9 50.3 Morocco 1,500,000 150,000 27.0 85.3 - Pakistan 8,494,000 849,400 4.8 15.1 76.3 Saudi Arabia 462,000 46,200 87.7 100 - Sudan 250,000 25,000 100 - - Syria 1,850,000 185,000 21.9 69.18 100 Tunisia 974,000 97,400 41.6 100 - Turkey 8,600,000 860,000 4.7 14.9 75.3 Uzbekistan 1,400,000 140,000 28.9 91.4 100 Yemen 114,030 11,403 100 - -
24. Conclusion NARS Donors Public/Private Sector, Ministries, NGOs IARCs Farmers <ul><li>Contingency planning for response to rust epidemics </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated holistic and multi-stakeholders approach </li></ul><ul><li>Strong commitment from stakeholders and donors </li></ul><ul><li>Effective and transparent partnership and coordination </li></ul>