Investments, Institutions & Incentives for Food & Water Security

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C. Breisinger, IFPRI

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Investments, Institutions & Incentives for Food & Water Security

  1. 1. Investments, institutions andincentives for achieving food andwater securityPresenter:Clemens BreisingerThis presentation is based on research fromRuth Meinzen-Dick, Claudia Ringler, Mark Rosegrant, Tingju Zhuet al. (all International Food Policy Research Institute - IFPRI)
  2. 2. This presentation:1. Water projections with IFPRI’s IMPACT model2. Investment requirements3. Institutions and incentives4. Data challenges5. Conclusions and policy implications
  3. 3.  Irrigation is key for securing future food supply• Accounting for less than 20% of global cropland• Contributing ~40% of global cereals production• Key to boosting agricultural productivity (think aboutintensification…) Irrigation is the largest water user• 70% global water withdraw• 90% global water consumption Irrigation is seen as major driver of water scarcity Access to drinking water matters!Water, Irrigation and Food SecuritySource: Rosegrant et al. 2012
  4. 4. IFPRI’s IMPACT model:
  5. 5. Already today (!), water-scarce regions accountfor 36% of global population (2.5 Bn) and 9.4trillion USD (22%) of global GDPHow many people live in water shortareas (%)?How much GDP is generated in waterscarce regions (%)?> 50< 2020 - 3030 - 4040 - 50No data> 40%20 - 40%0 - 20%2010361846> 40%0 - 20%1922201020 - 40%5920102.5 Bn people9.4 trillion USD2Water stress, percent of total renewable waterwithdrawn1 >40% water stress2 Year 2000 pricesSource: IFPRI team analysis, based on IFPRI’s IMPACT model
  6. 6. How much and what kind of investments inwater and related sectors are needed?• Baseline and “grey” scenarios• High investment in agricultural research• Low investment in agricultural research• High investment in agricultural research plus– Irrigation expansion and water use efficiency– Rural roads– Access to drinking water– Secondary female educationSource: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
  7. 7. In a “grey” scenario and without productivityinvestment, water stress will increase with anadditional 450 m people and 5.6 trillion GDP at riskSource: Veolia Water and IFPRI, 2011
  8. 8. For Arab countries and many other dry land countries,water stress will pose a risk to economic growthSize of bubble reflects size of populationSource: IFPRI team analysisWater stress 2050 over GDP growth 2010-2050 – Medium growth
  9. 9. Even highly industrialized countries like US willface critical water scarcity without investing inwater productivitySource: IFPRI team analysis, based on IFPRI’s IMPACT model
  10. 10. Annual investment requirements:Alternative ScenariosSource: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
  11. 11. With significant water productivity investments, ~1 bnpeople and 17 trillion USD of GDP can be moved intoareas of lower water scarcitySource: Veolia Water & IFPRI 2011
  12. 12. Reduction in the number of malnourished childrenin developing countries, 2000, 2025, 2050Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
  13. 13. However, investments alone are not sufficient:Policies, institutions and incentives atdifferent levels matter!Source: Ruth Meinzen Dick 2013, based on CAPRi box framework .
  14. 14. Coordination institutions• Can be provided by:– State (a public tubewell that supplies many farms),– Collective action (farmer group)– Markets (farmer selling water).• Which is most appropriate depends on:– Scale– Technical sophistication of technology and farmers– Cultural factors (social capital, market orientation)– Capacity of state, market institutions, etc.Source: Ruth Meinzen Dick 2013
  15. 15. Farm level: management practices formore efficient water use• Enhanced water infiltration: mulching; deep tillage;contour farming; special terraces (e.g., flat-channel)• Decrease soil water evaporation: conservation tillage(e.g., no-till or minimum till)• Deficit irrigation: apply predetermined percentage ofcalculated potential plant water• Advanced irrigation technology (drip, micro-sprinkler,real-time management)
  16. 16. Policy level: Economic incentives forefficient water use• Establish water rights for users• Restructure subsidies that distort productiondecisions• Invest savings in activities that boost farm outputand income, especially for the poor
  17. 17. Action and research for improving foodand water security requires data and tools
  18. 18. Water from an ARAB SPATIAL perspective
  19. 19. Oil-food-income
  20. 20. Policy recommendations• Without additional investments in water, foodinsecurity will rise• Increase investment in household water supply andsanitation and irrigation, emphasizing technology(drip, micro-sprinkler, real-time management)• Restructure subsidies that distort production decisionsand invest savings in activities that boost farm outputand income• Investments alone are not sufficient, improvedinstitutions and incentives are necessary• For effective policymaking, we need to improve accessand analysis of data

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