Businesses are increasingly at risk of “sustainability megaforces” – interconnected risks that will have unprecedented effects on business performance and profitability in the futureThese mega-forces include: climate change; competition for energy, land, water and material resources; population growth and migration; poverty and food insecurity; and ecosystem degradation. Food and beverage businesses will be directly and indirectly affected by a range of global trajectoriesKPMG, 2012. Expect the Unexpected: Building business value in a changing world.-------------------Based on our research findings, agribusinesses find water, climate, and community risks to be urgent, and best suited to piloting landscape approaches. Agribusinesses and food sector brand manufacturers are increasingly aware of sustainability risks. The interconnectedness of the water-food-energy-climate nexus is increasingly being recognized by business as requiring integrated solutions. In some cases, stability in key sourcing and operational regions may be at stake. World Economic Forum, 2011. Water Security: The Water-Food-Energy-Climate Nexus. Island Press.---------------
ICT and Agricultural Risk Management: A “No-Regrets” Approachto Improved Water Management, Food Security, and Employmentin Dry AreasPaul B Siegel, Consultant, The World Bankpsiegel@worldbank.org email@example.comPhD, Agricultural Economics, Virginia Tech, USAKeynote PresentationInternational Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry AreasCairo, Egypt, June 24-26, 2013International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry AreasICARDA
“Sustainability megaforces”facing agri-business and farmersKPMG, 2012. Expect the Unexpected: Building business value in a changing world.Climate ChangePoverty andFood SecurityCompetitionfor resourcesIncreasingdemand
No Regrets Approach to Agricultural Risk Management• Increased weather and market variability and extremes• Increased population growth, urbanization, changing diets• Changing land use patterns/practices (e.g., biofuels, conversion of agricultural land)• Political instability, government changes and changing policies, including safety nets• Increased poverty, food and water insecurity, unemployment=> Traditional knowledge/experience and “averages” not relevant indicators for future=> Need for site-specific information (e.g., weather, prices, agro-ecological potential)“No-Regrets” Approach: try to identify present priorities for investments and actionsthat provide economic, social, and environmental benefits whether or not there isclimate change in the future. => win-win investments for sustainable development=> investments in information and communications technologies (ICT)=> investments in health/nutrition, water/sanitation, education, family planning=> investments in sustainable land management, water and energy conservation
Food Security and Climate Change in Dry AreasAmman Declaration, February 2010• ICARDA and partners organized a conference in Amman in February 2010 on:Food Security and Climate Change in Dry Areas.• The Amman Declaration called for initiatives to enhance food security and reducevulnerability to climate change, including the establishment of:a) regional commission for food security and climate change,b) regional network for weather monitoring, andc) knowledge system on adaptation and resilience practices.• In particular: b) “Establish local, national, and regional networks for weathermonitoring, and market information, and a disseminating system for farmerstowards adapting their planting, efficient watering, and harvesting decisions.”• Kuwait Declaration November 2011: social safety nets and insurance for thepoor, promotion of effective risk management and risk reduction strategies.(WMO, FAO, ICARDA, others)
Key “Take Away” Messages• Need for locally generated and “owned” information on weather, and related socio-economic and agro-ecological variables, with ongoing monitoring and evaluation.• The same information and ICT used for agricultural risk management are needed fordecision-making to improve water management, food security, and employment.• Locally-based early warning systems combining remote sensing and ground-basedmonitoring of key variables are the foundation of agricultural risk management, andshould be linked to sub-national, national, and regional networks for informationcollection, analysis, and dissemination.• The link between early warning systems, insurance, and flexible/responsive socialsafety nets is use of objective and transparent “triggers” (or “indices”), and decisionrules that can mobilize rapid responses in an efficient and equitable manner.• There is a need to consider new institutional arrangements for linkingfarmers-extension-research that are site-specific and draw upon innovations inICT, and early warning and rapid response systems.• There is a major role for young people in ICT for agricultural risk management. ICT and agricultural risk management are “no-regrets” priority investments toimprove water management, food security, and employment in dry areas.
Agricultural Risk Management: Decision-Making Before and After“Events”• Ex-ante Decision-Making Before “Events”: based on forecasts, proactive and not reactiveRisk Prevention and Reduction:=> prevent risks: destroy pests/diseases before they can cause losses=> reduce exposure to risks by adjusting assets/livelihoods (i.e., adaptation to risks):a) diversification of production, consumption, marketing, b) adoption of newtechnologies, c) sustainable land/water management practices.Compensation Arrangements for Potential Losses from Risk Events:=> savings: financial, livestock, storage of grains=> risk transfer: index-based insurance contracts based on events using triggers=> social safety nets with clear and transparent decision rules using triggers based on early warningsystems and/or actual outcomes flexible and responsive social safety nets (“planned coping”)• Ex-post Decision-Making After “Events”: based on actual outcomesAd-hoc Risk Coping:=> unplanned coping: sell and/or degrade assets (e.g., livestock, food in storage), soil/watermining, less food consumption and/or less nutritious food consumption, take children out of school=> can lead to irreversible damage to assets and livelihoods
Ex-ante Agricultural Risk Management InformationManagementNeed for information on:• Weather (high/low temperatures, rainfall, wind speeds, moisture)• Water availability, food/fodder/feed availability (for plants, animals, humans)• Market prices and information on logistics for inputs and outputs• Pests and diseases (for plants, animals, humans)• Available technologies and applications (research and extension, private sector)• Policies and policy changes (food/water/energy policies, social safety net policies)• Local socio-economic, environmental conditions (livelihoods and hazard mapping)This information is site-specific, and dynamic• Need for local weather forecasts and local monitoring of relevant variables• Need for multi-disciplinary, multi-sectoral information => crowdsourcing• Potential to draw upon innovations in ICT
Agricultural Risk Management: ICT for Decision SupportSystems• ICTs include mobile phones, internet, computers, computersoftware, smart cards, barcodes for scanning• ICT can provide timely information in a less costly manner to farmers in remoteareas and/or to farmers lacking access to “conventional” channels of information• Declining costs and multi-functionality of ICTs make them attractive for manyapplications to manage risks and opportunities• ICT linked to global positioning systems (GPS), geographic information systems(GIS), spatial data infrastructures (SDI), remote sensing => satellite technologiesPossible Uses of ICT for Agriculture for Improved Decision-Making:• Early warning information: weather, prices, pests/diseases, policies• Advisory information: how to plan and manage risks and opportunities• Information and Improved Access to markets, credit, insurance• Traceability and Logistics along supply chain: from inputs to final consumer
Case StudiesRisk Prevention and Reduction:=> Local Weather Forecasting and Monitoring, Turkey=> mKrishi Mobile Agro-Advisory Services, IndiaCompensation for Potential Losses from Risks:=> Kilimo Salama Index-Based Weather Insurance, Kenya/RwandaPlanned Coping:=> Productive Social Safety Nets, Ethiopia/Kenya/RwandaNew Arrangements for Farmer-Extension-Research:=> Technology Transfer via Lead Farmers using Mobile Phones, Tunisia
Turkey: Local Weather Forecasting and Monitoring.Problem: lack of timely local weather information to predict, prepare for, andrespond to pests and low temperatures (frosts) in fruit orchards.Objective: provide farmers with daily local weather forecasts along with an earlywarning system to help monitor key variables, with links to researchers.Key Components: started in 2008, integrated pest management (IPM).a) 5 mini meteorological stations in province (temp, rain, wind, soil moisture).b) 14 reference farms that measure weather (temp) and monitor pest populations.c) Links with researchers/extension to predict pest outbreaks and send alerts.d) Use of mobile phones to communicate information to/from farmers.e) Daily updates and alerts sent via mobile phones.Benefits: early warning and monitoring allows for precise application of pesticides toprevent pests (major cost savings), early warning for frost allows for some riskreduction activities (reduces losses). Information for researchers to update models.=> More efficient input use, ecologically better, increased income and employment.
Weather Station in Farmer’s Field and Monitoring for PestsKastamonu Province, Turkey
mKRISHI: Mobile Agro-Advisory System, IndiaProblem: farmers lack access to timely local market information, and site-specific technicalinformation on weather, soil conditions, fertilizer and pesticide applications, and crop rotations.Objectives:• Connect farmers to a system that can help them make better decisions about agriculturalproduction and marketing, and to protect the environment.• Provide farmers with technical information specific to their plots of land.• Link farmers with input suppliers, output markets, banks, insurance companies, extensionservices, universities, and research institutes.Key Components: started 2007 by Tata Consultancy Services to promote “New Green Revolution”a) Farmers linked to mobile phone network.b) Use GPS/GIS to provide site-specific, individualized information to farmers.b) Decentralized network of automatic weather stations.c) Advisory services using two-way communication between farmers and extension agents.e) Messages in local languages (vocal and/or written), graphic formats.d) Use of SDI to link data to multiple stakeholders.Benefits: improved access to markets (lower costs for inputs, logistics, higher prices foroutputs), more efficient use of water, fertilizers and pesticides, and greater confidence of farmersto adopt new technologies that improve livelihood opportunities, incomes, and employment.
Kilimo Salama: Weather Index-Based Input InsuranceProblems: low rainfall areas with high rainfall variability (drought, flood) andassociated pests/diseases, risk-averse farmers with low productivity and reluctance toadopt improved technologies using purchased inputs (seed, fertilizer, pesticide), lackof access and/or high costs of credit and insurance for small farmers.Objective:• Objective: provide small farmers with low-cost insurance packaged withinputs, credit, and extension to lower the risks for adopting higher-yieldingtechnologies.Key Components: started 2007 in Kenyaa) Partnership: Syngenta Foundation, Safaricom, insurance company, inputsuppliers, credit providers, researchers, Kenya Meteorological Department.b) Automated weather stations to record local weather data.c) Determination of weather index “triggers” for too little or too much rain, and/ortoo high or too low temperatures.d) Linked to input dealers, using barcodes to record input purchases.e) Use of cellphones by farmers to pay insurance premiums, receive extensionmessages, and receive insurance payouts.Benefits: increased adoption of improved technologies, empowerment of farmers.=> 75,000 farmers in Kenya, 20,000 in Rwanda. Starting index insurance for livestock.
Kilimo Salama: Weather-Index Insurance• Index based on agronomic modelsthat calculate rainfall requirementsfor crops => from researchers.• “Trigger” based on based on weatherstation data, along with district levelyield data, satellite data.• “Trigger” set for too little rain or toomuch rain, and diseases based ondistrict yield data.• Rainfall index, area yield index.
Productive Social Safety Nets (Ethiopia/Kenya/Rwanda)Problem: low rainfall areas with chronic food insecurity, and transient food insecurity.Objective: establish system of flexible/responsive social safety nets that provide assistance to foodinsecure households in “normal times”, and households vulnerable to food insecurity when needed.Key Components: started in Ethiopia in 2005, DFID and World Bank, other partners have joined.a) Risk reduction: extension for health/nutrition, water/sanitation, family planning.b) Public works focused on risk reduction and asset building activities (e.g., waterharvesting/catchment, irrigation), sustainable land management (e.g., forestation, terracing).c) Compensation for losses: micro-insurance, safety nets. => pilots of “work-for-insurance”d) Combine early warning systems with preparedness plans, contingency plans and funding.e) Early warning system uses remote sensing data (e.g. NDVI, WRSI) to generate indices that are“triggers” for mobilizing resources BEFORE disasters occur, combined with ground based monitoringof human, plant, and livestock health related variables, water availability, market prices, etc.f) Emphasis on community-based monitoring and local governments, linked to national systems.g) “Off-the-shelf” public works for transient food insecure HHs to prevent asset sales/degradation.h) Well-established M&E system.Benefits: reduction of chronic and transient food insecurity and some “graduation” from foodinsecurity, improved water and natural resource management, higher productivity, increasedemployment, large data base to correlate weather with socio-economic and environmental data.
LEAP Yield Reduction in % (2002 Maize_Meher)Ethiopia Safety NetsSeasonal Mapping & ReviewTool (SMaRT)No. beneficiariesLEAP crop yieldreduction data byworedaBeneficiarynumbers arethen exportedback to LEAPand mappedRemote Sensing of Landscape plus Livelihoods Mapping to Predict “Problem”
New Arrangements for Farmer-Extension-Research: Tunisia• Regional project Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries, led by ICARDA.• Large-scale pilot sites in six countries in West Asia and North Africa.• One of project sites in Tunisia located in a region that accounts for 40% of the country’s irrigated area.• Experimental trials are evaluating new wheat varieties and improved irrigation methods.• The irrigation experiments test different tools (e.g. water balance measurement, use of tensiometers)that can help farmers decide when and how much to irrigate, in order to maximize water-use efficiency.• On-station research is complemented by demonstration plots on farmers’ field that promote dripirrigation and improved irrigation scheduling.• The project is testing a new method of technology transfer.• ‘Lead farmers’ are identified, who will each mentor ten ‘satellite’ farmers.• The project has provided mobile phones to the lead farmers, for easier communication with otherfarmers, extension services, and researchers. This approach is adapted from similar methods used in India.From: “What’s New at ICARDA”, Issue Number 8, 2012. http://www.icarda.org/blog/technological-change-agriculture-model-tunisia
“No-Regrets” Recommendations• Promote investments in information and ICT for agricultural risk management.• Improve methods of information collection, analysis, and dissemination.• Promote local networks of automatic weather stations, and simple on-farminstruments to measure relevant variables (temperature, precipitation, windspeeds, soil moisture) along with monitoring of pests, diseases, and marketprices/availability.• Improve local early warning and rapid response systems using objective andtransparent “triggers” that are useful for insurance and social safety nets.• Coordinate multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral efforts to generate “triggers” basedon scientific evidence with constant updating/verification => adaptive research.• Consider new decentralized arrangements for linking farmers-extension-research, including new types of information and technology transfer.• Link local farmer-extension-research networks with sub-national, national andregional networks for information collection, analysis, and dissemination.• Involve youth in ICT for agricultural risk management, especially as monitors.
Thank You.Productive Safety Nets in Rwanda: Public Works
Select ReferencesICARDA website: http://www.icarda.org/blog/technological-change-agriculture-model-tunisiaKoshmatov, Talaibek (2011) “Making Weather Forecasts Work for Farmers: Examples from Turkey and Kyrgizstan.” Presentation at World BankARD Days 2011, March 22-24, 2011. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTARD/Resources/ECA_WeatherForecasts.pdfKilimo Salama website: http://www.syngentafoundation.org/index.cfm?pageID=562mKrishi website: http://www.tcs.com/resources/brochures/Pages/TCS_mKrishi-Mobile_Agro_Advisory_System.aspxBene, C. (2012) “Social Protection and Resilience to Climate and Disaster”. IDS Programme Briefing, Institute for DevelopmentStudies, University of Sussex. http://www.ids.ac.uk/files/dmfile/ASP_Briefing_WebNew.pdfHorn of Africa Risk Transfer for Adaptation (HARITA) http://www.oxfamamerica.org/files/harita-quarterly-report-oct-dec-2011_web.pdf-1World Bank (2011) ICT in Agriculture: Connecting Smallholders to Knowledge, Networks, and Institutions. An e-Sourcebook. Report No. 64605.Washington, D.C. http://www.ictinagriculture.org/sites/ictinagriculture.org/files/final_book_ict_agriculture.pdfWorld Bank (2011) Understanding Volatility and Managing Risks. ARD Days 2011, March 22-24, 2011. Washington, D.C.http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTARD/0,,contentMDK:22815829~pagePK:210058~piPK:210062~theSitePK:336682,00.htmlSiegel, P.B., J. Gatsinzi, and A. Kettlewell (2011) “Adaptive Social Protection in Rwanda: ‘Climate-proofing’ the Vision 2020 UmerengeProgramme”. IDS Bulletin. 42(6): 71-78. Institute for Development Studies, University of Sussex, UK.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1759-5436.2011.00276.x/abstractSiegel, P.B. J. Gatsinzi and A. Kettlewell (2011) “Adaptive Social Protection in Rwanda: A No-Regrets Approach to Increased Resilience inTerritorial Planning Context.” Paper presented at conference on “Social Protection for Social Justice” Institute for Development Studies(IDS), University of Sussex, Brighton, UK. April 13-15, 2011. http://www.ids.ac.uk/files/dmfile/Siegeletal2011AdaptiveSocialProtectioninRwanda02CSPconferencedraft.pdfSiegel, P.B. (2011) “No Regrets Approach to Decision-Making in a Changing Climate: Toward Adaptive Social Protection and Spatially EnabledGovernance.” Background Paper for World Resources Report 2010-2011. World Resources Institute: Washington, D.C.http://www.worldresourcesreport.org/de/responses/no-regrets-approach-decision-making-changing-climate-toward-adaptive-social-protection-aJaffee, S., P.B. Siegel, and C. Andrews (2010) “Rapid Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Assessment: A Conceptual Framework.” Agriculture andRural Development Discussion Paper 47. The World Bank. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCOMRISMAN/Resources/RapApRiskAssessment_Framework_Final_Web.pdfHeltberg, R., P.B. Siegel, S.L. Jorgensen (2009) “Addressing Human Vulnerability to Climate Change: Toward a ‘No Regrets’ Approach.”Global Environmental Change. 19(1): 89-99. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTSOCIALDEVELOPMENT/Resources/244362-1232059926563/5747581-1239131985528/GEC.pdf
Other Possible Applications: Adaptive AgriculturalResearchFrom ICARDA’s website:“The lack of information about the response of crop varieties tovariable environmental conditions limits accurate yield estimates andfails to identify suitability for a given region or climate.”=> improved local information on weather, and other variables couldhelp link agricultural research with development using methods ofupscaling and extrapolations for adaptive research.
SystemSiteIntegration• Problem analysis• System analysis• Site selection• Solution development(options)• Extrapolation andadaptation ICARDAIntegrated Research Site: INRM
Transfer and AdaptationUp-scaling and ExtrapolationGIS and GIS + Bio-economic ModelingGISIntegrated Research SiteSimilar environment Different environmentLinking Research with Development
Using GIS for Finding of Similarity with ResearchBenchmark Sites for up scaling and diffusion ofTechnology