HSAD Socio-economics and policy research

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  • 1. Socio-economics an Policy Research HSAD (Harmonized Support for Agricultural Development in Iraq Iraq-ICARDA-USAID Final Meeting: 10-11 June 2014 Baghdad, Iraq Aden A Aw-Hassan Director, Social, Economic and Policy Research
  • 2. Main Activities 1. Policy analysis by IFPRI – Applied CGE Model to assess the effects of different policy interventions on wheat supply and on distributional effects on labor and livelihoods – Iraqi spatial showing different natural resources endowments, production and livelihoods as tool to guide development policy 2. Assessment of Seed Policy and support in its implementation 3. Baseline production surveys of wheat and date palms 4. Value chain analysis of dates and wheat
  • 3. • The seed policy is in the Shura council for final approval but the seed policy is already in the process of implementation • Information: qualitative and quantitative. • Qualitative: legislative process used to guide policy implementation. • Quantitative: Uses aggregate data to illustrate the general trends in seed production and related wheat production Wheat Seed Policy
  • 4. Wheat sector in Iraq Planted area: Average (2000/12): 1.975 mln Ha Irrigated 1.25 mln Ha (63.3 %) Rain-fed 0.725 mln Ha (36.7 %) Production Average (2000/12): 2.0 mln Ton Irrigated 1.894 mln Tons Rain-fed 0.106 mln Tons Suggesting low yields, on average, in both conditions Source: FAO statistics 4
  • 5. Importance of the wheat sector in Iraq Wheat self-sufficiency: Based upon normative per capita consumption 2007 2010 2013 48.9 % 58.8 % > 70% In relation to actual wheat imports 50% max 5
  • 6. Relevance of the wheat seed component 1. Seed is a main and sure production factor to improve productivity and production 2. Research to produce new varieties are mobilized and available 3. Seed industry and related multiplication infrastructure to produce increasing amounts of seeds are available, 4. Farmer seed demand guaranteed and enhanced through increasingly motivating incentives, 5. Accompanying inputs are also in supply and at advantageous prices. 6
  • 7. Regulatory framework The National Seed Policy:  Falls within the general framework and is stipulated by the strategy set for the agricultural sector  Recognizes that Agriculture throughout Iraq has a differentiated potential:  North dependence on rain, rivers and ground water  Center and the south dependence mainly on river water  Recognizes the importance of high quality, adapted and improved seeds as prerequisites for enhancing crop production 7
  • 8. The National Seed Policy Improve family food security Improve rural incomes Elevate standard of living in rural areas Enhance the contribution of agriculture to GDP Increase food production Timely availability of required quantities of high quality seeds of improved crop varieties to farmers at reasonable prices at appropriate locations Objectives
  • 9. Elements of strategy and vision: • While in the long run: – the aim is minimize the use of public subsidies, • In the immediate and short run: – The seed industry will be supported to achieve rapid improvements in crop development by improving both genetic and physical attributes of varieties as private enterprises are perceived to be financially non viable, • The Government will also support the involvement of the private sector in the seed industry by providing incentives to invest in the seed sector, 9
  • 10. The National Seed Policy The Government will also: o Play the lead role in developing pilot research operations o Enhance farmer demand for high quality seeds o Create an operating and economic environment favorable for investment in seed production and supply oVariety development is assigned to the agricultural research centers with the expectation that the private sector will in the long run participate in it 10
  • 11. The national Seed Policy: • Registered and certified seed production are the responsibility of seed suppliers with the expectation that the higher performing of them would develop self-sustaining private- sector seed business operations according to pre-specified rules, • With time the Government would concentrate on the production of those varieties which are required by farmers but not supplied by the private sector, • Ultimately, the Government would be responsible for those activities that are of public service nature while the activities that are of a commercial nature would be entrusted to the private sector. 11
  • 12. II. Regulatory framework C. The Seed and seedlings Act (Law 50 of 2012): 12 Top management, advisory & investment stimulation Agricultural research, experimentation & seed development Inspection, control & certification of seeds Registration and accreditation of new seeds National seed council NCRRPAV PAAR GAECR Seed companies Seed producers Wheat producers Seed multiplication, marketing & storage
  • 13. Ministry of Agriculture (Minister) Initiator (Ex Agr Supplies) Planning and Follow up Ministry Council Legislation Directorate (MoA Legal Office) Ministerial Council Shura’a Council Parliament Law passed Procedures for implementing the Law The Process of Legislating Agricultural Policy
  • 14. Seed policy implementation and instructions (2013) • The main implementation aspects deal with: – Seed production and certification modalities, – Reiteration of the exclusive nature of the higher grade categories and their certification procedure and requirements (field checking, seed cleaning, laboratory analyses, etc.),
  • 15. High grade seed technical specifications Seed grades Purity (%) Min Germination (%) Min Weed Seeds/Kg Max Moisture content (%) Max Other crop seeds/Kg Max Base (Foundation) 98 85 10 12 5 Registered 98 85 15 12 10 Certified # 1 97 85 30 12 25 Certified # 2 96 85 60 12 50 15
  • 16. High grade seed elaboration steps  Steps Denomination Institutions in charge 1 Seed breeding Agricultural Research Stations and the National Committee for Release, Registration and Protection of Agricultural Varieties (NCRRPAV) 2 Seed multiplication Seed companies in cooperation with seed producers on contractual bases 3 Seed quality testing and certification General Authority for Examination and Certfication of Seeds (GAECS) 4 Seed management, storage and supply Seed companies (MSP, ICSP & STC) 5 Seed marketing Seed companies and marginally by the private sector 16
  • 17. Structure of the market Seed producers are 3 major companies: • Mesopotamia seed company, public with revolving funds • Iraqi seed company with mixed capital (51, 49%) with access to public funding (Seed fund and agricultural fund) • Seed Technology Center, entirely public – All operating on contractual bases with seed producers 17
  • 18. Seed total utilization evolution Years High grade seed use (Tons) Self-sufficiency ratio (%) 2003 3500 2 2004 6576 4 2005 7600 4 2006 9716 5 2007 10500 6 2008 40000 22 2009 47718 26 1010 36726 20 2011 60000 33 2012 62000 34 2013 132000 73 18
  • 19. Impact on wheat production (All Iraq) Period Average 2000/08 Average 2009/12 Variation (%) 2013 Wheat production (MT) 1.8 2.6 + 47 3.82 Estimated yield (Ton/Ha) 1.13 1.84 + 62 2.18 Estimated wheat Consumption (MT) 4.4 4.8 + 9 5.1 Production consumption gap (MT) - 2.6 - 2.2 - 15.4 1.9 Wheat imports (MT) 3.1 3.8 + 24.6 3.2 19
  • 20. Constrains to farmers access to seeds • Farmers face huge administration problems when buying certified seeds. • The sales points are far away from farmers, thus requiring long distances to get certified seeds. • Farmers also have to undertake substantial paper work to be eligible to certified seeds and subsidies. • Some farmers did not get the amount of seed they need. • Farmers are not fully convinced of the certified seed in some cases so trust has to be gained. • Distribution of seeds has to be improved, with less bureaucracy.
  • 21. The private sector involvement The seed policy of Iraq, and related legislation call for two main ideals: 1. Support public sector: 1. Supporting the wheat seed industry in the short to medium run in every way possible 2. Support wheat production with other related inputs, price of wheat, provide marketing services, etc. 3. The aim is to help the industry get started and reach a critical stage of take-off and follow-up development, 2. Private sector: 1. Expect the private sector to gradually take over the mission in the long run 2. Allowing the Government to disengage and focusing on public service activities that can be of benefits to all. 21
  • 22. Progress and obstacles on seed sector privatization • The sector now heavily depends on state support both the demand and the supply • It is generally difficult in any systems to withdraw subsidies • The private sector will not be able to enter the industry due to these strong state support • The state support to the main seed companies has crowding-out effect on the private sector • The assumption that in the short and medium run private firms are not financially viable to undertake private investment in the seed sector- should be questioned and reviewed.
  • 23. FINAL WORD • Policy is sound and it supports clear food policy strategy • Policy is being implemented • BUT: The role of private sector needs further measures: – Leveling the plane field with state supporting companies, – Devolving the distribution to small and medium size input traders (Conduct pilot case): • Need support in training and information • Also capitalization by through local financial institutions • State will retain monitoring and evaluation of the system and implementing changes as needed • Small-scale seed enterprise sector should be developed: – particularly as they play complementary roles with the formal sector- – the advantage of this system is could produce verities that adequate for local conditions
  • 24. Thank you