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Hodson et al_global_monitoring_local_actions

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  • 1. Global Monitoring to Local Actions: The Case of Stripe Rust in Ethiopia in 2013/14 D.P. Hodson1, B. Abeyo1, A. Badebo1, Y. Alemayehu1, B. Hundie2, G. Woldeab3 and B. Girma2 1 CIMMYT-Ethiopia, 2 EIAR, Kulumsa Research Center, 3 EIAR, Ambo PPRC Photo: Dr Bedada Girma, DRRW/EIAR
  • 2. Introduction • Global rust monitoring system – catalyzed by stem rust (Ug99), but a valuable resource for all wheat rusts (5000+ stripe rust records) • 2013 stripe rust outbreaks across a large region • Similarities to 2010 (a major stripe rust epidemic year) • Basis for alerts to other regions (East Africa)
  • 3. Early warning – Ethiopia 2013 Ethiopia: Local Action Steps Global Rust Monitoring System Assessment CWANA – Yellow Rust Outbreaks (surveys) Climatic Conditions – favourable for yellow rust?Regional Winds Rust Caution – May 17th
  • 4. The Fear – Another Year Like 2010 2010: Ethiopia experienced the largest stripe rust epidemic in recent history Over 600,000 ha of wheat affected An estimated 60 million Ethiopian Birr (US$3.2 million) were spent on fungicides Large production losses were observed Photo: Ayele Badebo, CIMMYT
  • 5. Initial Main Season Outbreaks • When & where did stripe rust first appear? 2010: Assasa Plain, August (early occurrence) 2013: Assasa Plain, August (early occurrence) Not a promising start to the 2013 season?, but ……
  • 6. Overview: Local Actions 2013 Multiple Stakeholders: CIMMYT, EIAR, MoA Extension Directorate, ATA, FAO, Animal & Plant Health Directorate, Regional Ag Bureaus, etc … Survey Planning Meeting Belg Season Surveys Key Stakeholder Planning Meeting Timely Chemical Control Early Main Season Surveys Regular Situation Updates + Forecasts Full Main season Surveys
  • 7. 2013 Season Outcomes • Based on early warning, local actions contributed to staying ahead of the disease – Timely surveys (Belg season, early main season) – Farmer awareness – Strategic stocks of fungicide – Timely + effective chemical control – Good information exchange
  • 8. Regular (weekly) Situation Updates (Disease + Control)
  • 9. Element of forecasting – Daily + forecast wind movements
  • 10. Continued comprehensive survey effort (better timing in 2013) 2010 2013 Total Survey n = 1084 fields Total Survey n = 1292 fields
  • 11. Stripe rust outcomes: 2010 & 2013 2010 2013 Stripe Rust Hotspots - From Survey Data Total Survey n = 1084 fields Total Survey n = 1292 fields
  • 12. National Cereal Yield Gains vs Previous Year 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Teff Barley Wheat Maize Sorghum 2.77 5.03 0.66 15.51 13.67 % y i e l d G a i n 2010 % Yield Gain (vs 2009) 2010 % Gain 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Teff Barley Wheat Maize Sorghum 11.09 5.49 12.18 5.39 11.49 % y i e l d g a i n 2010 & 2013 % Yield Gain (vs previous year) 2010 % Gain 2013 % Gain All cereals – except wheat – performed well in 2010All cereals – especially wheat – performed well in 2013 Source: CSA, 2011, 2013
  • 13. Shift to Resistant Cultivars – Played a major role S / MS R / MR Unknown Known Cultivars – On-farm Survey Data 2010 2013
  • 14. Conclusion • 2013 was a high risk year for stripe rust in Ethiopia • Early warning, good planning and effective on the ground actions had a positive influence • Positive actions, post 2010 epidemic, almost certainly contributed to making 2013/14 a record wheat production year for Ethiopia. Key factors were: – Rapid spread of rust resistant cultivars that dramatically reduced the vulnerability of the Ethiopian wheat crop – Timely and coordinated surveillance efforts, coupled to good information exchange amongst different stakeholders, resulted in effective control and awareness campaigns that targeted emerging stripe rust outbreaks
  • 15. Looking Ahead: 2014/15 Season • Rust threats continue: – Stripe Rust: Unusual early outbreaks already seen in 2014. Close monitoring needed on susceptible cultivars if conditions prove to be suitable. – Stem Rust: Most widely grown cultivar “Digalu” totally susceptible to race TKTT-. High risk situation for 2014/15 • Planning already started – EAAPP survey plans in place, Key stakeholder planning meeting held on 22nd April Yellow rust infections – Debre Zeit 17th April 2014 Digalu: 100% loss Nov 2013
  • 16. Acknowledgements • Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • USAID • DRRW • EAAPP (World Bank) • EIAR + RARI’s • CIMMYT • ICARDA • Ministry of Agriculture (Extension, Plant & Animal Health Directorates) • FAO • ATA • Regional Agricultural Bureaus • Ethiopian Seed Enterprise • Regional Seed Enterprises • USDA-ARS Cereals Disease Laboratory, Minnesota • Global Rust Reference Centre, Denmark • Cambridge University, UK • THE FARMERS OF ETHIOPIA!