Smarter Planet and Megatrends


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Smarter Planet and Megatrends

  1. 1. Smarter Planetmegatrends- Jørgen Floes, Chief Architect Nordic SO Delivery © 2012 IBM Corporation
  2. 2. Smarter Planet megatrendsThe IT world is changing - driven by shifts in market dynamics andclient needs Big Data1 Growth Markets8 Through 2015, more than 85 percent By 2015, IDC expects of Fortune 500 organizations will fail emerging markets to generate to effectively exploit big data for over 33% of all IT spending competitive advantage Security7 Analytics2 Through 2016, the financial impact of cybercrime will grow 10 percent per Through 2015, more than 90% of Softwareyear, due to the continuing discovery of business leaders contend information new vulnerabilities is a strategic asset, yet fewer than 10% will quantify its economic value Hardware Customer Sets Technology Business Cloud6 Social Business3 Services Services 63% of companies already are using By 2014, 20% of business users will(Cloud) or expect to use it in 2012, up replace email as the primary interpersonal from 49% last year communications with social networking Mobile Enterprise5 Smarter Planet4 66% of CIOs ranked mobility as a IBM Smarter industry solutions will top investment priority in 2012 grow 5x faster than total solutionsSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 2
  3. 3. Smarter Planet megatrendsIBM’s transformation has gone through distinct phases in the pastdecade; the “smarter” phase of the journey is underway 2002 Sharing & partnering 2006 Globally integrating Consistent set of processes worldwide 2010 Leverage best Making things smarter practices Right skills, right Standardize and place, right cost reduce waste 2012 Rationalize support Governance and functions for greater performance efficiency Being essential discipline Instrumented, Radically simplify interconnected, intelligent processes New era of computing Enable growth and Changing client productivity Evolving IBMer Optimize the whole systemSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 3
  4. 4. Global Technology Outlook © 2012 IBM Corporation
  5. 5. Smarter Planet megatrendsIBM Global Technology Outlook Objectives GTO identifies significant technology trends early. It looks for high impact disruptive technologies leading to game changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon. Technology thresholds identified in a GTO demonstrate their influence on clients, enterprises, & industries and have high potential to create new businesses.Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 5
  6. 6. Smarter Planet megatrendsGTO 2012 – The Genetic MapSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 6
  7. 7. Technology example: The Watson System © 2012 IBM Corporation
  8. 8. Smarter Planet megatrendsFuture Systems – The Learning Paradigm Society Nature Institutions Archives (Natural Interfaces) Training and Learning Engines To Build Models and Define Insight Policy Engine Active Learning Business, Legal and Ethical Rules Verification Engines Hypothesis Engines (e.g. Simulations) To Understand and Plan Actions Outcome Engine Actuation and ValidationSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 8
  9. 9. Smarter Planet megatrends Watson – a Workload Optimized System Hardware 90 x IBM Power 750 servers 2880 POWER7 3.55 GHz cores 500 GBps on-chip bandwidth 15 Terabytes of memory 500 GB of data (in memory) Software IBM DeepQA, UIMA and UIMA AS Apache HadoopSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 9
  10. 10. Smarter Planet megatrendsLearning Systems Roadmap to Meet the Challenge Autonomously & accurately identify essential features across multiple domains. Learning systems must understand context to disambiguate. Autonomous Dynamic Learning Systems Learning Systems Achieve understanding Dynamic Data Corpus of natural language, Expand Hypothesis Generation to different Watson images and other sensory domains (leverage crowd-sourcing) information. Hypothesis Static Learning Add Scorers for Different Input Modalities: and question generation images, video, voice, environmental, biological; Keyword Systems leverage new devices & hardware acceleration across arbitrary domains; meta-heuristic to Search Expert teams identify Deeper Reasoning: Allow higher-levels of automate algorithm features across semantic abstraction. Leverage new hardware. Delivers lists choices industries, create first Domain Adaptation Tools based on commercial learning keywords & systems human filters Biological Inspiration: Cognitive Process Understanding 1985 2010 2015 2020 2025 Greater AutonomySmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 10
  11. 11. Big Data and Predictive GovernanceSpeaker: Steven Adler © 2012 IBM Corporation
  12. 12. Smarter Planet megatrendsInternet of Things Scenarios Show a Pattern of Customer PainPoints Water Management Grid Food Safety Logistics Home Healthcare Transportation Collecting information to provide better service and work smarter Establishing the smarter planet!Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 12
  13. 13. Smarter Planet megatrendsUncertainty of data arises from many sources Process Uncertainty Data Uncertainty Model Uncertainty Processes contain Data input is uncertain All modeling is approximate “randomness” Intended Actual Spelling Text Entry Spelling ? ? ? Fitting a curve to data Uncertain travel times GPS Uncertainty ? ? Testimony ? {Paris Airport} Ambiguity {John Smith, Dallas} Semiconductor yield {John Smith, Kansas} Forecasting a hurricane Contaminated? ( Rumors Conflicting DataSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 13
  14. 14. Smarter Planet megatrendsBy 2015, 80% of all available data will be uncertain By 2015 the number of networked devices will be double the entire global population. All 9000 sensor data has uncertainty. 8000 100Global Data Volume in Exabytes 90 The total number of social media 7000 accounts exceeds the entire global Aggregate Uncertainty % 80 population. This data is highly uncertain 6000 in both its expression and content. 70 ) gs rs 5000 hin rn nso 60 fT Se o 4000 Data quality solutions exist for et 50 enterprise data like customer, te (In 3000 40 product, and address data, but this is only a fraction of the ia ) M ed d text 2000 30 total enterprise data. ial an oc audio S , 20 eo P 1000 (vid VoI 10 0 Enterprise Data Multiple sources: IDC,Cisco 2005 2010 2015Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 14
  15. 15. Smarter Planet megatrendsEvery Smarter Planet Solution has Big Data and Needs Big Analytics Smarter Planet Faster Decisions Deeper Insights Real-time Awareness Predictive Models Reactive Analytics Deep Analytics Data in Motion Data at Rest Big DataSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 15
  16. 16. Smarter Planet megatrendsNew “Big Data” Brings New Opportunities, Requires New Analytics Exa Homeland Security 600,000 records/sec, 50B/day Up to 10,000 1-2 ms/decision Times 320TB for Deep Analytics Peta larger Data Scale Telco Promotions Tera 100,000 records/sec, 6B/day Data at Rest Data Scale 10 ms/decision 270TB for Deep Analytics Giga DeepQA 100s GB for Deep Analytics Traditional Data 3 sec/decision Mega Warehouse and Business Intelligence Up to 10,000 Data in Motion times faster Smart Traffic 250K GPS probes/sec Kilo 630K segments/sec yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs 2 ms/decision, 4K vehicles Occasional Frequent Real-time Decision FrequencySmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 16
  17. 17. Smarter Computing: Expert Integrated SystemsSpeaker: Jean-Michel Rodriguez © 2012 IBM Corporation
  18. 18. Smarter Planet megatrendsBig Data Systems Require a Data-centric Architecture for Performance Old Compute-centric Model New Data-centric Model Manycore FPGA out put ut Massive Parallelism i np Persistent Memory Flash Phase Change Data lives on disk and tape Data lives in persistent memory Move data to CPU as needed Many CPU’s surround and use Deep Storage Hierarchy Shallow/Flat Storage Hierarchy Largest change in system architecture since the System 360 Huge impact on hardware, systems software, and application designSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 18
  19. 19. Smarter Planet megatrendsStorage Class Memory - The Tipping Point for Data-centric Systems (Phase Change) FLASH SCM in 2015 $0.05 per GB $0.10 / GB $50K per PB $0.01 / GB Relative Relative Source: Chung Lam, IBM Cost Latency DRAM 100 1 SCM 1 10 FLASH 15 1000 HDD 0.1 100000 HDD cost advantage continues, 1/10 SCM cost, but SCM dominates in performance, 10,000x faster than HDDSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 19
  20. 20. Smarter Planet megatrends2015 Vision: The Peta2 Data-centric System Petascale = Petaflop OR Petabyte Petaflop x Petabyte = Peta2 Goal Relative System – Data-centric, latency optimized, massive capacity 281x 336x Density per Rack system for long-running analytics and simulation applications 35.7x Requirements – 1 Petaflop performance, massively parallel 12x – 1 Petabyte BPRAM – Extremely low latency, high bandwidth interconnect (Xapt) 2.3x Assumptions 1x 1.4x – Majority of data stays resident in memory for long periods, minority of data updated continually – Persistent Memory becomes primary storage Peta2 + 2015 Peta2 Data-centric System Reactive+Deep Analytics Peta2 Analytics POWER 8/A2, BPRAM ITEs on Harrier Platform Appliance This system can become the System 360 equivalent for the Era of AnalyticsSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 20
  21. 21. Smarter Planet megatrendsAnnouncing the First Two Members of the IBM PureSystems Family Infrastructure System: Platform System: Expert at sensing and Expert at optimally anticipating resource deploying and running needs to optimize your applications for rapid infrastructure time-to-valueSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 21
  22. 22. Smarter Planet megatrendsIBM PureFlex System is Integrated by design Expert Integrated Systems Networking Storage Virtualization Compute Management Tools Applications Flexible and open choice in a fully integrated systemSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 22
  23. 23. Mobility: Enabling mobile workstylesand embrasing cloudSpeaker: Erik Pedersen © 2012 IBM Corporation
  24. 24. Smarter Planet megatrends Advancing the Workplace of the FutureSmarter Planet megatrends - 24 © 2012 IBM Corporation 24
  25. 25. Smarter Planet megatrends Mobile device adoption, focused on accelerating securitySmarter Planet megatrends - 25 © 2012 IBM Corporation 25
  26. 26. Social BusinessSpeaker: Stuart McRae © 2012 IBM Corporation
  27. 27. Smarter Planet megatrendsAdoption of Social Tools is Increasing Rapidly Growth in Adult Social Network Site Use, 2005-2009 Companies plan to increase spending on social despite recession Public Enterprise Fortune Global 100 Companies US Mobile Subscribers Accessing Social Sites Companies with ... Twitter Accounts Facebook Fan Pages YouTube Accounts (Thousands) 65% 54% 50% 72% 71% 69% 65% 67% 59% Jan-09 Jan-10 Change 54% 52% 52% 50% 33% 40% 40% 35% 33%Facebook 11,874 25,137 112% 33%MySpace 12,338 11,439 -7% Twitter Facebook YouTube Corporate Total US Europe Asia LatAm Total US Europe Asia LatAm Total US Europe Asia LatAmTwitter 1,051 4,700 347% Accounts Fan Pages Channels Blogs Source:comScore MobiLens Source:Burston-MarstellerSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 27
  28. 28. Smarter Planet megatrendsConvergence of Social and Analytic Technologies Transform theWay Businesses Operate Socially Synergistic Enterprise Solutions New top-line opportunities, better relationships with customers and partners, enhanced talent pool, increased resiliency and efficiency Individuals Teams Analytics Social Organizations Society Business Data aggregation Process Customer Sentiment Smart filtering Transformation Unmet Needs Meaning extraction Talent Discovery Consumable analytics Reasoning and Decision Support Process orchestration Crowdsensing, Crowdsourcing Stream processing Teaming, Incentives, Motivation Data Physical Enterprise Social Sensors & Streams Data from and about PeopleSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 28
  29. 29. Smarter Planet megatrendsSocially Synergistic Enterprise Solutions Can Provide DifferentiatingValue Customer Care and Insight Workforce Optimization Physical Meets Digital Financial Operations Smarter Commerce Advanced Case ManagementSmarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 29
  30. 30. Smarter Planet megatrends Thank you!Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 30