Trends shaping the automotive remarketing industry melinda zabritski

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Trends shaping the automotive remarketing industry melinda zabritski

  1. 1. ©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public. Traveling the open road: Discovering the trends that are shaping the automotive remarketing industry Melinda Zabritski | Experian Automotive
  2. 2. 2©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.  What’s on the road today  What’s being registered and in demand  How are consumers financing  The return of the leasing market  What’s being leased  What’s coming off lease Discussion points
  3. 3. 3©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Vehicles in Operation March 31, 2013 247.4M Used Vehicle Sales (37.6M) Scrapped Vehicles (12.3M) Vehicle Changes over 12 months: 26.9M (11%) (scrapped + new sales) Vehicle Movements: 76.3M (31.1%) (used sales + address changes) Vehicles in Operation March 31, 2012 245.1M What’s on the road today Source: Experian Automotive
  4. 4. 4©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 14.87% 11.88% 9.14% 8.28% 5.66% 5.59% 5.29% 5.00% 4.44% 3.89% 3.45% 3.06% 3.01% 2.72% 2.70% 2.14% 1.71% 1.55% 1.38% 1.02% Pickup - Full Sized Mid Range Car - Standard Small Car - Economy Mid Range Car - Lower SUV - Lower Mid Range Van - Mini Pickup - Small CUV - Entry Level Mid Range Car - Premium Upscale - Near Luxury SUV - Large CUV - Mid Range SUV - Entry Level Sport Car - Touring Upscale - Luxury Van - Full Sized CUV - Premium Traditional Car Small Car - Budget Sport Car - Premium Top 20 segments on the road 96.8% of all vehicles Source: Experian Automotive
  5. 5. 5©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 7.3 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.7 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.8 10.9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Rolling 15 MY Avg Age All Average age of vehicles on the road today Source: Experian Automotive
  6. 6. 6©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 Millions VIO by model year Source: Experian Automotive 50.9% of all VIO is MY2008-2000
  7. 7. 7©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 11.53 12.75 14.33 7.82 37.00 37.61 37.95 20.58 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013 Millions Total vehicle registrations New Used Market growth in light truck & passenger cars Source: Experian Automotive
  8. 8. 8©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. $702 $712 $667 $636 $647 $682 $751 $560 $580 $600 $620 $640 $660 $680 $700 $720 $740 $760 Q2 2007 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Billions Total outstanding loan balance Growth in lending balances Source: Experian Automotive
  9. 9. 9©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 1.88% 1.97% 2.23% 2.59% 2.66% 2.52% 1.71% 0.86% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013 Annual repossession rate Turnover due to repossessions Source: Experian Automotive
  10. 10. 10©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. What new segments are consumers purchasing? 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 10.5% 10.2% 5.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% Pickup - Full Sized Small Car - Economy CUV - Entry Level Mid Range Car - Standard Mid Range Car - Lower CUV - Mid Range Van - Mini SUV - Lower Mid Range Alt Power - Hybrid Car Upscale - Near Luxury CUV - Premium Mid Range Car - Premium Small Car - Budget SUV - Entry Level Sport Car - Touring SUV - Large Van - Full Sized Pickup - Small Upscale - Luxury SUV - Premium Large Growth since 2010 Small Car-Budget ↑ 95% CUV Entry Level ↑ 66% SUV Lower Mid ↑ 197% Hybrid ↑ 145% Source: Experian Automotive
  11. 11. 11©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 101% 72% 65% 46% 41% 38% 34% 24% 17% 17% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Alt Power - Hybrid Car CUV - Entry Level CUV - Mid Range CUV - Premium Small Car - Budget Upscale - Ultra Sport Car - Ultra Luxury SUV - Premium Large Sport Car - Premium Upscale - Near Luxury Thousands Growth 2010 - 2013 Q2 13 registrations Top demand used vehicle segments Source: Experian Automotive
  12. 12. 12©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Used segments with declining demand -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% Upscale - Luxury Sport Car - Upper Premium SUV - Lower Mid Range Traditional Car Van - Mini Pickup - Small Van - Full Sized 306k 26k 548k 190k 505k 494k 195k Source: Experian Automotive
  13. 13. 13©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Used vehicle sales by model year (H1 2013)
  14. 14. 14©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. $456 $446 $458 $458 $456 $459 $343 $332 $344 $347 $349 $349 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 $22 $24 $26 $28 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013 Thousands Average new finance amount Average used finance amount Average new payment Average used payment Shifts in consumer financing Source: Experian Automotive
  15. 15. 15©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 63 62 63 63 64 65 59 57 58 59 60 60 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013 New term Used term Average terms on new and used financing Source: Experian Automotive
  16. 16. 16©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 46 69.8 68.1 66.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2004 2009 2011 2012 Vehicles purchased new 36.7 50.7 46.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2004 2009 2011 Vehicles purchased used Average length of ownership 16 Source: Experian Automotive
  17. 17. 17©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 23.02% 24.14% 24.40% 17.68% 23.79% 23.62% 24.40% 27.64% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 New lease share of the new finance market Return of the leasing market Average new lease payment $414 Average new lease term 35 months Source: Experian Automotive
  18. 18. 18©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Which states have highest share of new leasing Source: Experian Automotive
  19. 19. 19©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 12.5% 11.6% 11.4% 9.5% 8.7% 6.9% 6.4% 4.3% 4.2% 3.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% MID RANGE CAR - STANDARD CUV - ENTRY LEVEL MID RANGE CAR - LOWER UPSCALE - NEAR LUXURY SMALL CAR - ECONOMY CUV - MID RANGE CUV - PREMIUM SUV - LOWER MID RANGE UPSCALE - LUXURY MID RANGE CAR - PREMIUM PICKUP - FULL SIZED ALT POWER - HYBRID CAR VAN - MINI SUV - PREMIUM LARGE SMALL CAR - BUDGET SUV - ENTRY LEVEL SPORT CAR - TOURING SPORT CAR - PREMIUM UPSCALE - PREMIUM PICKUP - SMALL Top leased new segments in 2013 Source: Experian Automotive
  20. 20. 20©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 3.7% 3.1% 3.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Top leased new models by share of market Source: Experian Automotive
  21. 21. 21©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Thousands ACCORD CIVIC CAMRY ALTIMA CR-V Top 5 leased vehicles coming due 129k 318K Source: Experian Automotive
  22. 22. 22©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 703 654 690 691 745 600 620 640 660 680 700 720 740 760 ACCORD ALTIMA CAMRY CIVIC CR-V Average credit scores on consumers financing MY2010 vehicles in H1 2013 What do these buyers look like?
  23. 23. 23©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. $330 $339 $323 $291 $340 $275 $285 $295 $305 $315 $325 $335 $345 $5,000 $7,000 $9,000 $11,000 $13,000 $15,000 $17,000 $19,000 $21,000 ACCORD ALTIMA CAMRY CIVIC CR-V Amount financed Monthly payment Financing on MY2010 vehicles in H1 2013 Source: Experian Automotive
  24. 24. 24©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. In summary  Strong industry with continued growth as sales/registrations increase and vehicles last longer  Healthy finance market with low charge- offs and increased balances  Low sales/registrations of 2009 will continue to plague market with inventory shortages for the next 24+ months  Growth is occurring in the lower level economy & budget class vehicles  As vehicle prices/amount finance increases monthly payment remain flat with increased term and low rates
  25. 25. 25©2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

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