Navigating the Cross-Section of Consumer Insights, Sentiment, & Online Behavior – an IAB webinar hosted by SAS and Organic

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Consumer awareness has been successfully measured for many years with traditional methods, such as surveys, panel studies or focus groups. Pulte Group, a leading business-to-consumer marketer and …

Consumer awareness has been successfully measured for many years with traditional methods, such as surveys, panel studies or focus groups. Pulte Group, a leading business-to-consumer marketer and home builder, was looking for a means to gauge how often consumers would consider their brand relative to their competitors online, but with less expense than traditional survey methods and without self-reported bias. As a marketer that employs a truly cross-media strategy in various markets, Pulte turned to Organic for the measurement solution. Using website traffic tools, social media monitoring, search activity metrics, specific housing industry metrics, and SAS, Organic was able to reduce all of these online and social media vehicles into a single, trackable monthly index.

On July 13, 2011, the IAB and leaders from Organic and SAS reviewed insights from this project and partnership. The speakers answered questions about challenges in understanding consumer behavior, analytics, and the wealth of data available from social media sources. The companies also shared their best practices in digital analytics in the following discussion:

SAS: Digital Analytics - Best Practices
1. How can an organization bring together different forms of online data?
2. How to manage/scrub/modify the data to begin making sense of it?
3. Approaches to analyzing online data – including sentiment analysis, data mining, and forecasting

Vinicius Vivaldi
Sr. Solutions Architect, SAS Institute

Suneel Grover
Solutions Architect, SAS Institute

Jason Harper
VP – Marketing Intelligence, Organic, Inc.

John Bejnarowicz
Senior Statistician, Organic

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  • 1. Navigating the Cross-Section of Consumer Insights, Sentiment, & Online Behavior Jason Harper – Organic John Bejnarowicz – Organic Suneel Grover – SAS Vinicius Vivaldi- SASIAB Webinar hosted by Organic and SAS
  • 2. Who is PulteGroup?
  • 3. The Competition
  • 4. Is their Marketing Working?© & ™or ® , Organic, Inc. Confidential. All rights reserved
  • 5. New Marketing Technique: COBI © & ™or ® , Organic, Inc. Confidential. All rights reserved
  • 6. Agenda• The Customer Journey• The Digital Landscape• Synthesizing Data Streams• Predicting Success• Lessons Learned• SAS®: Digital Analytics - Best Practices
  • 7. The Customer JourneyLocation, Location, Location?
  • 8. Location, Location, and a Lot More• Location• Price Point• School District• Builder
  • 9. Capturing Builder Consideration Potential New Home Buyers Upper Funnel (Location)Social Media Monitoring MiddleGoogle Insights for Search (Builder Consideration)3rd party web activity Lower (Prospect) Purchase
  • 10. The Digital Landscape
  • 11. Searches
  • 12. Searches
  • 13. SearchesGoogleInsights ForSearch
  • 14. Website Traffic• Visits• Page Views
  • 15. Website Traffic• Compete• Alexa• comScore• Quantcast• Hitwise
  • 16. Social Media• Facebook• Twitter• Blogs
  • 17. Social Media• Meltwater• Sysomos• Blog Pulse
  • 18. Synthesizing Data StreamsOrganic’s Consideration of Brand Index (COBI)
  • 19. COBI is a single measure that captures a brand’s“share of consumer mind” online. Are consumers visiting your website? Are consumers talking about your COBI brand/company online or virtually? Are consumers searching for your brand/company online?
  • 20. Multiple Virtual Metrics are Combinedto Create an Index Website Visits Website Page Views Google Search Index COBI Social Mentions Positive Social Media Mentions New Home Orders*Measures from a range of “virtual” touchpoints give a better measure of overallbrand share-of-mind than any single measure.• Direct consumer brand interaction (Website visits, page views)• Indirect consumer brand interaction (natural Google searches)• Active consumer participation in brand reputation (social media mentions)• New home orders were included to give the index a real-world industry metric to combine with the virtual metrics.
  • 21. Bringing Multiple Metrics Down to OneData Reduction: the object is to take multiple variables and condense theirinformation into a lesser number of variables while still capturing the monthlyswings in the data.• Principal Components• Multi Dimensional Scaling• Factor AnalysisStatistical methodology behind Organic’s COBI is Principal Factor Analysis.
  • 22. The COBI Process1. Determine competitor set2. Collect data for all competitors from four sources • Web traffic • Social media • Google searches • Builder New Orders (SEC filings)3. Create monthly shares for the data4. Using shares figures, perform Principal Factor Analysis to generate scoring coefficients for a single factor.5. Scale the resulting factor scores to range from 0-100
  • 23. How is the Score calculated? – In practiceCollect Data Total Positive Net New Google Social Social Sign-ups Month Builder Site Visits Page Views Index Mentions Mentions (quarterly) March-10 Beazer 106,893 576,766 9 1,167 196 728 March-10 Centex 61,873 554,456 18 2,491 228 1,823 March-10 DRHorton 145,173 1,580,796 19 931 121 4,037 March-10 Hovnanian 83,707 752,977 8 430 37 961 March-10 KB 110,482 1,194,538 14 6,925 458 1,446 March-10 Lennar 166,992 1,298,694 18 6,540 835 2,652 March-10 Meritage 34,406 353,341 7 232 212 621 March-10 NVR 9,678 38,113 20 348 38 2,000 March-10 Pulte 109,500 525,906 17 2,960 344 1,925 March-10 Richmond 67,327 434,888 6 327 287 637 March-10 Ryland 78,951 395,765 16 802 209 969 March-10 Shea 69,925 755,982 5 427 82 600 March-10 Std_Pacific 45,328 310,553 6 327 32 554 March-10 Taylor 343,610 1,594,489 5 382 68 1,034 March-10 Tollbros 80,750 1,055,578 14 1,551 176 526
  • 24. How is the Score calculated? – In practiceCalculate “Monthly Shares” for: Monthly Monthly Share of Quarterly• Website Visits Monthly Monthly Share of Positive Share of Share of Share of Google Social Social Net New• Website Page Views Month Builder Visits Views Index Mentions Mentions Sign-ups March-10 Beazer 7% 5% 9 5% 6% 4%• Social Mentions March-10 Centex 4% 5% 18 10% 7% 9% March-10 DRHorton 10% 14% 19 4% 4% 20%• Positive Social Mentions March-10 Hovnanian 6% 7% 8 2% 1% 5% March-10 KB 7% 10% 14 27% 14% 7%• New Orders March-10 Lennar 11% 11% 18 25% 25% 13% March-10 Meritage 2% 3% 7 1% 6% 3% March-10 NVR 1% 0% 20 1% 1% 10% March-10 Pulte 7% 5% 17 11% 10% 9% Sums to 100% March-10 March-10 Richmond Ryland 4% 5% 4% 3% 6 16 1% 3% 9% 6% 3% 5% each month March-10 March-10 Shea Std_Pacific 5% 3% 7% 3% 5 6 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 3% March-10 Taylor 23% 14% 5 1% 2% 5% March-10 Tollbros 5% 9% 14 6% 5% 3%
  • 25. How is the Score calculated? – In practiceUtilize Principal Factor Analysis to create scoring coefficients, then input thedata values into the resulting equation:COBI Score = 27.7 + 81.5 * (Share of Visits) + 69.5 * (Share of Page Views) +0.265 * (Google Search Index) + 44.8 * (Share of Total Social Mentions) +25.3 * (Share of Positive Social Mentions) + 47.2 * (Share of Net New Sign ups)
  • 26. Pulte COBI
  • 27. Predicting Success…For the Competition Too?
  • 28. COBI was found to closely track withPulte’s “Prospect” sign-ups 80 13,000 12,000 Correlation = 88% 11,000 10,000 70 Consideration Score 9,000 8,000 Pulte Prospects 7,000 60 6,000 5,000 4,000 50 3,000 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 May-08 May-09 Dec-08 Dec-09 Oct-08 Oct-09 Jan-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Apr-09 Aug-09 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Sep-08 Sep-09 Jun-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Nov-09…and thus, we now have a way to track how our competitors are doing as well.
  • 29. Lessons LearnedNot All Press is Good Press
  • 30. One top competitor is increasing investmentsin social media presence… how is that strategyworking for them?Fairly wellSocial media has been a strengthfor one top competitor in the pastyear, and other measures areshowing similar signs.
  • 31. A competitor is running a “free home” sweepstakes…how has that tactic increased their considerationwith consumers?Not muchThe sweepstakes created ashort-term bump in web traffic thatdisappeared when thesweepstakes did. No other digitalmetrics improved.
  • 32. A competitor has been receiving “bad press” in somemarkets… does this show up in lower consideration?Yes.This competitors scores arelower than their market sharemight dictate, even thoughthere is no direct way in theCOBI score that measures“bad press”.
  • 33. SAS®: Digital Analytics –Best Practices
  • 34. Unstructured Data Sources Data Management
  • 35. Capturing & Storing Unstructured Data • How to collect the data? • Leveraging Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) and RSS feeds • Ability to crawl the Internet • Storing the data • Capability of storing the data for both short and long term views • Accessing databases • Native access engines vs. ODBC connections
  • 36. Data Cleansing • Unstructured data, in the form of text, when captured, presents its own level of data management challenges – Being able to correctly structure the data and clean it is a priority – Technology needs to have the ability to: » Eliminate irrelevant information » Quantity ≠ Quality • Miss-spelings • Treat acronyms and abbreviations (e.g. “LOL”) • Pr☺f@nity • *Punctuation*
  • 37. Sentiment Analysis• The action of identifying the expressed sentiments by customers, partners, suppliers and employees • Typically categorized into three levels – Polarity indicator: Positive, negative, neutral• Why is it important to measure sentiment? • Public perception of brand, product, and/or service• Traditional Methodologies • Statistical • Rules-based • Traditional methodologies typically use one or the other – Common issues with measuring polarity accurately – Hybrid approach advantages• Overall vs. granular/feature-level sentiment
  • 38. Overall vs. Granular/Feature-level Sentiment  Good, but a little outdated. I bought the Nikon Coolpix L10 as my first digital compact P&S camera. I had it for a couple of weeks, until mine had a lens error that basically made the camera inoperable (it was stuck open). It mightve been due to batteries running low, but I tried another set (which I now think was also low).  The picture quality from the L10 was very good, a bit of barrel distortion was noticed in the wide angle and shooting tall skyscrapers (noticed by the curve along the side of the frame where the buildings are supposed to be straight).Another gripe I had with the camera was how slow the auto-focus was. It would basically go through the whole range of focus every time I pressed the shutter half-way and then some. This became more annoying the more I used it.  Eventually a lot of my pictures came out blurry, including outdoor overcast days with 3x optical zoom. Basically anytime theres zoom & less than ideal lighting, I would have to have rock steady hands to get non-blurry pictures. Overall its a good camera if you can overlook the issues I mentioned. Product: Nikon Coolpix L10, Polarity: mixed Feature: Picture Quality, Polarity: positive Feature: Autofocus, Polarity: negative
  • 39. Unstructured Data Mining & Forecasting• How does an organization proactively identify new topics, new terms, and new information being generated by the consumer? • Unstructured data mining – Let the data speak for itself – Develop an early warning or indication system – Raise awareness of forthcoming topic trends• Forecasting can help • Predict a topic reaching a significant threshold and proactively act on this information – Marketing applications » Defend and manage against brand-inhibiting events » Understand and act with intelligence during a new product/service launch » Augment Net Promoter Score strategies
  • 40. For More Information…• Jason Harper – Organic •• John Bejnarowicz – Organic •• Vinicius Vivaldi (SAS®) •• Suneel Grover (SAS®) •
  • 41. Thank You.
  • 42. Questions• Please type your questions into the chat feature on the upper-right corner of your screen.
  • 43. Upcoming Member Events• Educational Webinars – Compliance with IAB’s New Member Code of Conduct, July 27th @12 Noon EST• Professional Development Classes – Essentials of the Digital Marketing Ecosystem, August 4th, NYC – Professional Presentations: Turn Information into a Story That Sells, August 9th, NYC – On-demand training classes also available @• Conferences – Mobile: IAB Marketplace, July 18, NYC – MIXX Conference, Expo, & Awards, October 3-4, NYC – Ad Operations Summit, November 7, NYC