Augmented Reality - Foresight and Consumer Acceptance
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Augmented Reality - Foresight and Consumer Acceptance

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    Augmented Reality - Foresight and Consumer Acceptance Augmented Reality - Foresight and Consumer Acceptance Presentation Transcript

    • © 2013 HYVE AG 1 Augmented Reality Scientific Study on Foresight and Consumer Acceptance a first overview of the research questions, methodology and preliminary findings conducted by HYVE Science Labs in cooperation with our technology partner Insius Munich, 2013
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 2 Contents Aims and Objectives Methodology - Advantages Methodology – Social Media Network Audit First Findings – Quantitative Assessment First Findings – Demographic Data based on Alexa Traffic First Findings – Topic Analysis 2 6 5 4 3 1 7 Project Overview
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 3 Project Overview
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 4 Project Overview A Project of HYVE and INSIUS Data Collection Data will be collected through quantitative web monitoring using Insius software InMap; social network analysis, text mining and linguistics will be combined in order to analyze community content Theoretical Touch Points Literature on Augmented Reality, Foresight Methods, Web Monitoring Study Design Longitudinal study measuring the change of consumers„ perception and acceptance Foresight and Consumer Acceptance – AR
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 5 Aims and Objectives
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 6 Aims and Objectives Investigating AR from a Consumer Perspective Investigating Augmented Reality from a Consumer Perspective Time • How has AR changed over time from an end user perspective? • Are there temporal changes regarding the usage of AR? • How has the consumer acceptance/ sentiments regarding AR changed over time? • Are there significant jumps? In connection to what (launch of new technology/ application)? Which concepts existed before/ afterwards? Is there a different focus? Sentiments • How is AR perceived and accepted by consumers? • Which kinds of sentiments exist towards AR? Application • What topics are related to AR? • What are the main fields of utilization? • What is the actual use of AR? Quantity • How many comments/ entries exist about AR? • How intensive is AR discussed by consumers? Outlook • How is AR expected to develop in the future?
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 7 Methodology
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 8 Insius Web Monitoring Advantages ► HYVE with its long-lasting record in netnographic research is teaming up with INSIUS, a technology specialist from Cologne, to provide social media based research on an advanced automated level ► Their joint efforts provide the following benefits 1) Data crawling is based on simulated search-behavior and provides thereby an orientation towards relevant social media posts from the beginning 2) A special identification of „real“ user generated content is applied, not a collection of mere „technical“ UGC (efficient machine learning algorithms as well as domain- specific sentiment-assessment are used to ensure this) 3) The analysis of posts explore relevant topics and subtopics and is thereby „discovering“ unknown dependencies - not only coding already known categories 4) The identified topics are mapped onto an association-network, dependencies and structures across all discussions can be seen here in a clear overview
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 9 Analyzing Social Media Content at „Big Data Scale“ Social Media Network Audit To identify brand and product related social media content on a „big data“ scale, a process with 4 distinct steps is conducted. Effective computer algorithms as well as experience netnographic researchers are hereby interacting in each step: ► Crawl: data collection by simulating human online search behavior ► Extract: cleaning of data and extraction of user generated content by specialized machine learning algorithms ► Analyze: identification of topics and sentiments ► Map: construction of a topic network – automatized mapping of topics, subtopics – their sentiments and drivers Crawl1 Clean & Extract2 Analyse3 Map4
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 10 Social Media Network Audit Crawl – Clean&Extract ► keyword strings that are representing the research topic at hand, are formulated by experienced netnographers ► crawling of possible relevant UGC by queries against all relevant search engines ► content is extracted from all (!) search engine result pages and stored in a data base Due to the simulation of human online search behavior, the data crawling is already focused on relevant UGC. Cleaning of automated data is necessary due to the following facts: ► Spam and Code has to be excluded ► only real user generated content should be taken into account (no editorial content, no advertisement and PR) Our technology is using two technologies for this ► rendering and deconstruction of a website into its pieces ► machine learning algorithms that differentiate Spam, Code, editorial and PR content from UGC Crawl Clean&Extract 1 2
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 11 Social Media Network Audit Analyse - Map ► using specialized computer linguistic models, the crawled data is analyzed to identify topics, subtopics and their drivers ► a sentiment analysis gives a first impression of the polarity of products, brands and topics (positive, negative, neutral) ► an identification of positive and negative drivers provides a deeper understanding of topics and their relations in terms of the actual content of the discussions Analyse Map ► for every analyzed brand or product the relations between discussed topics are evaluated by using network analysis ► in the center of the network the major research topic can be found – grouped around are the negative and positive associations (topics) HYVE„s Social Media Network Audit provides hereby a quick understanding of the relations and dependencies between discussions on brands, products and technology. It also serves as an ideal starting point for further netnographic research. 3 4
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 12 First Findings Quantitative Assessment
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 13 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Quantitative assessment Total volume timeline Average growth of 47 % p.a. since 2007 amount of English UGC-posts related to the term “augmented reality” (per year)
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 14 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 Quantitative assessment Total volume timeline amount of English UGC-posts related to the term “augmented reality” (per quarter) Google Glass at Google I/O HomeSpotter at NAR CES 2013; Oculus Rift etc.
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 15 2,321 1,820 1,414 1,024 695 648 626 582 580 514 507 486 455 453 439 365 348 267 257 250 245 240 229 225 224 219 208 199 196 195 182 171 167 165 164 163 163 162 158 156 153 150 150 150 148 147 144 143 139 www.mtbs3d.com stackoverflow.com seminarprojects.com forums.macrumors.com forum.unity3d.com www.ign.com www.xtremesystems.org www.defencetalk.com www.gamespot.com answers.yahoo.com forum.rpg.net 3dsforums.com forum.xda-developers.com forums.penny-arcade.com www.escapistmagazine.com forums.toucharcade.com gamrconnect.vgchartz.com www.neogaf.com www.meetup.com developer.vuforia.com warships1discussionboards.yuku.com www.futuretimeline.net androidforums.com www.serebiiforums.com talk.maemo.org www.abovetopsecret.com www.nintendolife.com forums.ubi.com www.avforums.com forums.cgsociety.org forums.whirlpool.net.au forum.lowyat.net www.quora.com www.gamedev.net www.pojo.biz forum.beyond3d.com forums.gametrailers.com mybroadband.co.za forum.magicball.net www.neoseeker.com forums.steampowered.com hardforum.com forums.eidosgames.com forum.mobilism.org www.giantitp.com www.psu.com forums.sjgames.com forums.comicbookresources.com eclipsephase.com Quantitative assessment Communities 24% 15% 14% 14% 8% 6% 6% 5% 5% 3%Gamer Community 3D-Game-Technology- Community Computer and Technology Community Q&A-Site Smartphone-Community Smartphone-Developer- Community Military Community Home Entertainment Community Game Developer Community Sonstige
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 16 Quantitative assessment Total Volume - Summary ► Augmented reality sees a massive leap in user generated content after 2006 ► Since then the amount of UGC grows nearly 50% from year to year Growing interest since 2006 ► Google Glasses showed a significant impact on the discussion around AR, but on a very high level ► Other products like the Oculus Rift (VR) were also able to stimulate the discourse on AR All about Google Glasses? ► The major areas of discussion in the social media landscape are game-development and gaming related ► Smartphone-Communities and App-developer communities (like XDA-Developers) follow with wide margin. Is it a gamers thing?
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 17 Demographic data based on Alexa traffic Age and education age education 47 20 -15 -31 -37 -31 18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 44 to 45 55 to 64 65 plus 0 16 5 -8 no college some college college graduate school ► Age-focus lies beneath 35 years, correlating to the major “gaming” topic that is prevalent in the discussion- sites ► The relatively low educational level could also be a phenomenon of the gaming focus: the majority of users is simply too young for a college degree Age and education correspond to the impression of “gamers”
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 18 Demographic data based on Alexa traffic Gender, children and income gender and children income ► The most used forums and communities are frequented by males without children. ► The low income of community members could again be a mere age-phenomenon. gender, children and income 60 -39 male female -25 34 has children has no children 28 -2 -7 -20 income 0 to 30k income 30k to 60k income 60k to 100k income 100k plus
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 19 Demographic data based on Alexa traffic Place of internet usage place of internet usage ► The place of internet usage is maybe the most significant evidence that “gamers”, still going to school are dominating the online discussions: Internet usage is above average – but not at “work” No internet-usage at work 21 24 -14 internet at home internet at school internet at work
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 20 Topic analysis Overview
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 21 Network overview Introduction 48.742 posts 3.236 sites 6.264 concepts Augmented Reality
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 22 Network overview Introduction Augmented Reality each node in the network represents a language concept these appear in sentences and have a specific polarity negative neutral positive the more central a concept is, the more frequent it occurred in the crawled discussions the numbers inside the concepts give a relative impression of the frequency of a concept in this specific network
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 23 Network overview Topics overall
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 24 Network overview Topics - development 0 50 100 150 200 250 1970-2007 2008-2010 2011-2013 information&knowledge advertising&marketing shopping navigation education 450 950 1,450 gaming
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 25 Network overview Example: gaming ► the network to the isolated gaming-related concepts ► all concepts that co-occur in posts with gaming related topics are taken into account ► it serves as a first basis for deeper topic understanding and can already show significant phenomena Isolation of the gaming network
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 26 Network overview Time shift 2005 and before after 2005
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 27 The entire study including the final outcomes will be available soon!
    • © 2013 HYVE AG 28 Oliver Gluth oliver.gluth@hyve.de fon +49.89.189 081-458 fax +49.89.189 081-400 HYVE Innovation Research GmbH HYVE Science Labs Schellingstraße 45 80799 München www.hyve.de Thank you for your attention Your personal contact HYVE Innovation Research GmbH HYVE Science Labs Schellingstraße 45 80799 München www.hyve.de Hanna Stockinger hanna.stockinger@hyve.de fon +49.89.189 081-479 fax +49.89.189 081-400 Marc Egger marc.egger@insius.com fon +49.221.4558026-0 fax +49.221.4558026-9 Insius UG Technologiepark Köln Eupener Str. 165 50933 Köln http://insius.com