[Dr. park jin] updated lecture note 4
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  • TPP Members(4): New Zealand, Singapore, Chile, Brunei\nAdded Negotiators(9): U.S. Australia, Vietnam, Peru, Malaysia, Japan, Canada, Mexico\n
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Transcript

  • 1. 1[Updated Lecture Note-4] Not for Circulation Dr. Park, Jin Executive President, Asia Future Institute Seoul, Korea November 2012
  • 2. 2  By Year 2050 by ADB  Scenario A (Asia’s Era) ◦ 52% of the World GDP ◦ USD40,800 per capita income  Scenario B (Asia in pitfall) ◦ 31% of the World GDP ◦ USD20,600 per capita incomeAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 3. 3  By Year 2050 by Goldman Sachs ◦ China ahead of US in GDP during 2030s ◦ Next 11: Korea, Mexico (OECD) Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, Vietnam  Criteria by GES (Growth Environment Score) Source: Goldman Sachs Paper No. 134 (2005. 12)Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 4. 4  However…  Unpredictable future  Trilateral power competition among China, Japan and India Source: Bill Emmott, RIVALS: How the Power Struggle Between China, India and Japan will Shape Our Next Decade (Penguin Books, revised Ed. 2009).  Competition and cooperation between U.S. and China (G2 Partnership)Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 5. 5Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 6. 6 ○ Five Key Areas 1. Sustainable economic growth 2. Regional cooperation 3. Democracy and human rights 4. Green growth and energy 5. Cultural communicationAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 7. 7 Image Source: TIME MagazineAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 8. 8Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 9. 9 New Delhi, IndiaAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 10. 10 ▶ Total GDP: $ 1.8 trillion (2010) ▶ Trade Volume: $ 1.4 trillion Source: CIA The World FactbookAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 11. 11 Image Source: Yonhap News AgencyAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 12. 12 1950 (Korean War) 2012Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 13. 13 Japan (1987) Germany (1991) $46,973 $42,625 127.33 M 81.61 M U.S. (1989) U.K. (1996) $49,601 $38,891 314.70 M 63.06 M France (1990) $42,793 South Korea 63.37 M (2012) Italy (1990) $23,680 per $33,942 capita 60.89 M 50 M population Sources: The Chosun Ilbo, IMFAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 14. 14  Korea in 2012: - USD23,680 per capita and 50M population  Korea in 2025 - World’s No. 3 per capita income with USD51,923  Korea in 2050: - World’s No. 2 per capita income with USD81,462 Source: Goldman Sachs Paper No. 134Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 15. 15  Economic Growth: Sustainable?  Socio-Economic bipolarization  Aging society / low birth rate  Demand for social welfare: Populism?  Energy security  North Korea: Korean unification?Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 16. 16 Source: The Straits Times(2012. 8. 15) , Wealth Report 2012Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea by Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank
  • 17. 17  A hub country of global FTA Network ◦ The only country having FTA both with US and EU  Free trade within Asia ◦ FTA with Singapore, India and ASEAN ◦ FTA negotiations with China, Vietnam ◦ FTA discussion with Japan ◦ Trilateral FTA talks with China and JapanAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 18. 18 EFT Cana A (4) Chin da U.S.European a A Mexic Union KOREA Japa o (27) Turkey n Columb Per ia ASEA Gulf Indi N u Chil Countrie s a (10) e (6) Australi New Zealand aAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 19. 19 ASEAN +3 TPP ASEAN+6 (RCEP) Source: Ajoo newsAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 20. 20  From beneficiary to aid donor  KSP: Knowledge Sharing Program  Cooperation with ADB and World Bank  17th country for ODA support through KOICA (From GNI 0.15% to 0.25%)Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 21. 21 ① Vietnam (41) -The Export-Import Bank -Industry-Univ. Collaboration China ② Indonesia (25) Korea Japan -Bond Market Roadmap -Promoting Export-Oriented Enterprise ③ Cambodia (19) -Issuing Government Bonds Pacific -Introducing Life Insurance Ocean ④ Laos (8) -Crisis Management -Private capital inducement ⑤ Philippines (3) -Financial Management -Accrual Method of Accounting ⑥ Myanmar (3) -Rural Development Plan -Exclusive Industrial Zone Source: KDIAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea Image Source: Dong A Ilbo
  • 22. 22 (ITCC) (ITCC) Source: National Information Society AgencyAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 23. 23 Source: National Information Society AgencyAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 24. 24 North Korea: The Military First PolicyAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 25. 25 North Korea: Nuclear ProgramsAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 26. 26 North Korea: Dynasty Continues Grandson as New Commander-in-ChiefAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 27. 27 Window of OpportunityAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea Image Source: prof. Rudiger Frank, University of Vienna
  • 28. 28· Gradual and peaceful unification pursued -German model may not be applicable· Step by Step economic and cultural integrationdesirable -through trade, investments, and human exchanges· Political and military confidence building process necessary -through high-level dialogues and arms reduction initiatives· Meanwhile, refugees from North Korea keep growing - a small-scale unification is already happening in the South· Still, lessons to be learned from Germanexperience….Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea Image Source: Dong A Ilbo
  • 29. 29 World in 2050 and United Korea · Population: 68M · GDP: $6,056 billion · Per Capita Income: $86,000 Source: Goldman Sachs Paper No. 188 ‘Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea A United Korea? Reassessing North Korea Risks (Part I), (2009.
  • 30. 30  Asia: Diversity of cultural heritages  Asia: complexity of historical legacies  Are there “Asian values”? -Confucian values: Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam  1997 financial crisis and criticism on Asian Values  Still, family values, social harmony, benign leadership, morals and ethics count in Asia -China: spreading Confucian Academy -Japan: reflecting Confucian CultureAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 31. 31Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 32. 32Asia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 33. 33 PSY’s ‘GangNam Style’ music video hits over 810 million YouTube views / Clinching Top Ranking in Billboard Hot 100 N. America Europe Asia 23 mil 21 mil 49 million S. America 4 mil Oceania 3 mil Unknown Africa .7 mil .3 mil Source: Joong Ang IlboAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 34. 34 Marriages JobsAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 35. 35  New Middle Power in Asia (G20)  Successfully Transformed Economy and Democracy  Strong Soft Power: to promote regional cooperation, to facilitate green growth, and to expand cultural communication  Divided Nation  Aging society  BUT…Much to share experience with and contribute to Asia for peace and prosperityAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 36. 36 Challenges for Asia Korea’s Roles Vision for Future Sustainable -Growth Stimulator economic growth -Free Trade Openness / Prosperity Promoter Regional cooperation -Regional Integrator Integration / -Development Community Building -Peace Maker Supporter Democracy and -Democratic Pioneer Transparency / Human Rights -Human Rights Good Governance Green Growth and Advocator -Green Growth Innovation / Energy Facilitator Social Welfare Cultural -Energy Reformer -Cultural Communication Communicator Sharing / Soft Power -MulticulturalAsia Future Institute, Seoul, Korea
  • 37. 37