Scenic Hudson Sea Level Rise Mapper - Part 1

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Jason Winner, Conservation GIS Manager for Scenic Hudson presents on the new Sea Level Rise Mapper. …

Jason Winner, Conservation GIS Manager for Scenic Hudson presents on the new Sea Level Rise Mapper.

The mapper is a tool for communities and stakeholders to use to create visualizations of future scenarios of sea level rise. With these maps and information, Scenic Hudson is supporting communities' efforts to develop adaptation plans by helping them to:

- create maps of the extent and impacts of inundation and flood zone expansion

- understand the locations of key built and natural resources

- create graphics that illustrate different sea level rise scenarios in specific communities or stretches of the river

- estimate the risks to infrastructure and natural resources and the likelihoods of different inundation events

- develop alternative adaptation scenarios and weigh their cost and benefits with respect to built infrastructure and natural resources

** The Sea Level Rise Mapper can be found on Scenic Hudson's website at: http://www.scenichudson.org/slr/mapper

For more information, contact Jason Winner at Scenic Hudson at (845) 473-4440 ext 223, or jwinner@scenichudson.org

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  • 1. A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise: Vulnerability and Adaptation along the Hudson River Estuary Jason Winner, Conservation GIS Manager Mark Wildonger, Planner A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 2. Overview •Introduction •Sea Level Rise Problem •Roadmap – Planning for Resilience •Sea Level Rise Modeling and Mapping •Breakout Groups •Conclusions and Next Steps A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 3. Introduction Theme: Sea Level Rise is “Scary” A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 4. Introduction Theme: Sea Level Rise A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise requires Planning
  • 5. A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Introduction
  • 6. Introduction A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Hudson River Sea Level Rise Project Goals: • Map future inundation zones at a resolution high enough to support parcel-based decisions • Identify important at-risk resources and their levels of vulnerability • Engage stakeholders with strategies for preser- vation, restoration, and/or shoreline protection • Identify decision support tools available to create a roadmap for adaptation and resilience
  • 7. Climate-Related Impacts 1) Climate Change 2) Storm Surge 3) Sea Level Rise A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge are Additive! This Project is about Sea Level Rise Only Introduction
  • 8. Relative sea level change is caused by the combined effects of global sea level variations (due to climate change) and local vertical land movement. When sea level rises, it amplifies all types of coastal inundation and associated impacts. -NOAA Coastal Services Center A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Introduction
  • 9. 1) Current Conditions 2) Sea Level Rise Data, Science, and Projections 3) Local Assets at Risk A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Problem
  • 10. source: NASA A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Problem - Sandy
  • 11. A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Problem - Sandy
  • 12. A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Problem - Sandy
  • 13. A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Problem
  • 14. he imperative to facilitate the persistence of the nue to provide ecological services that sustain ptimal balance will require locally-specific tactics edge, and regional strategies that coordinate efforts ework. a er e can expect water levels on the Hudson River – al Dam at Troy - to rise by up to five feet by the end in during the next century . (see figure 3 on following Figure 2. Sea level change since 1856, observed by tidal gauge at the Battery, Manhattan, NYC. 0 100 200 300 400 500 1856 1881 1906 1931 1956 1981 2006 HudsonRiver Sea Level 1856-2009 (inmm, observedat Manhattan) average= 2.79mm/yr source:NOAA Local Sea Level is more than 1’ higher than 100 years ago Rate of rise is accelerating Sea Level Rise Data and Science A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 15. Source: NOAA A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Data and Science
  • 16. Sea Level Rise Projections: 2020a 2050a 2080a 2100b Central Range: 1-5” 5-12” 8-23” 11-26” Rapid Ice Melt: 4-10” 19-29” 41-55” 52-72” a) From the NYS Sea Level Rise Task Force b) From the NYS 2100 Commission Report A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Projections
  • 17. •Up to 72” of Sea Level Rise by 2100! •Local Rate is higher than global average A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Projections
  • 18. • Increased coastal flooding • Loss of salt water marsh habitat • Salt water intrusion • De‐watering and bluff failure (dropping lake levels) • Coastal erosion • Property loss • Threat to critical infrastructure A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Additional Impacts
  • 19. What’s at Stake? • 78 Riverfront Communities • $ Billions of Public & Private Infrastructure • Historic & Cultural Centers A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Local Assets at Risk
  • 20. • 160+ miles of Estuarine River • Rich Turtle, Salamander, and Fish Populations • Globally Rare Freshwater Tidal Habitats • Thousands of acres of Tidal Wetlands and Vegetated Shallows What’s at Stake? A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Local Assets at Risk
  • 21. Sea Level Rise Data source: Climate Central 2100 TideLevelSeaLevelRiseStormSurge
  • 22. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap Community-based Vulnerability Assessment: 1) Getting Started 2) Hazards and Climate 3) People and Communities 4) Built Environment 5) Natural Resources 6) Risk-wise Strategies A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Source: NOAA Coastal Services Center
  • 23. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap Getting Started: a)Define objectives b)Explore problems c) Engage stakeholders d)Identify policies to inform e) Consider resources A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 24. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap Hazards and Climate: a)Characterize hazards b)Map hazard areas c) Capture local knowledge d)Incorporate scientific data A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 25. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap People and Communities: a)Social vulnerability b)Community resilience c) Trends A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 26. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap Built Environment: a)Assess all infrastructure b)Physical characteristics c) Policy impacts d)Infrastructure exposure A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 27. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap Natural Resources: a)Protective services b)Additional benefits c) Potential stressors d)Policy impacts A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 28. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap Risk-Wise Strategies: a)Integrate hazard mitiga- tion & community plans b)Use existing programs to implement adaptation projects c) Document predicted future conditions d)Use external drivers as leverage A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 29. 1) Local Data 2) Inundation and Coastal Flood modeling 3) Resources at Risk 4) Sea Level Rise Mapper A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Modeling and Mapping
  • 30. Source: NOAA Digital Coast, www.csc.noaa.gov/slr/viewer Sea Level Rise Mapping & Analysis A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 31. Source: The Nature Conservancy, www.coastalresilience.org Sea Level Rise Mapping & Analysis A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 32. Mapping - Data Elevation Data • LiDAR data • High resolution (1m) • Accurate depiction of water elevations • National Elevation Dataset (NED) 1/3 arc second (10m resolution) • Poor resolution • Hydroflattened A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 33. Mapping - Data Digital Elevation Models: 10m National Elevation Dataset (NED) vs 1m LiDAR A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise 10m NED 1m LiDAR
  • 34. “Sea Level” Tidal Data Mean sea level is not consistent NewYork Poughkeepsie TroyDam Tide Gauge A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 35. What is “Mean Sea Level” • Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) • Mean High Water (MHW) • Mean Sea Level = average height of the water surface over time • Mean Low Water (MLW) • Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) Tidal Data A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 36. Tidal Data Source: NOAA HudsonRiverMeanTidal Rangevariesfrom3.4’-6.2’ A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 37. Hudson River Estuary Local Tide Gauges MHHW Local Tide Gauge A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 38. Hudson River Estuary Sea Level Rise Modeling • Bathtub model uses flat surface • Modified bathtub model uses real river elevations incorporates datum information A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 39. Hudson River Estuary Elevation ElevationBathtub Model Modified Bathtub Model A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 40. Add Sea Level Rise Projections Central Range: 2020: 1-5” 2050: 5-12” 2080: 8-23” 2100: 11-26” Rapid Ice Melt: 2020: 4-10” 2050: 19-29” 2080: 41-55” 2100: 52-72” A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 41. Add Sea Level Rise A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 42. Add Sea Level Rise MHHW surface ↓ Subtract LiDAR ↓ Reclassify ↓ New MHHW extents A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 43. Add Sea Level Rise MHHW Datum River A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 44. Add Sea Level Rise MHHW + 36” RiverMHHW Datum A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
  • 45. Add Sea Level Rise MHHW A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise NewYork Poughkeepsie TroyDam Tide Gauge