Prediksi Iklim dan Banjir
DKI dengan Anfis
The Houw Liong
P.M.Siregar
R.Gernowo
H.Widodo
S. Nuryanto
Garis Besar
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Model Iklim dan Cuaca
Hard Computing & Soft Computing
Prediktibilitas , Chaos/Weak Causality
Ka...
Model Atmosfer
Model Atmosfer
Physical Model
• Cloud Formation : Arakawa , Kuo
• Interactions : lands, oceans, cryosphere,
•

biosphere
Forcing : Solar ...
Predictability of a Climate Model
Forecasting Based on Soft
Computing & Solar cycle
• Quasi periodic solar cycle
• Sunspot , flare , cme, galactic cosmic

r...
Sunspot & cosmic ray
Galactic Cosmic Rays
Cosmic Rays
Kaidah Samar Sugeno
(Sugeno Fuzzy Rules)
• Untuk x adalah Ai dan y adalah Bj maka z
adalah pix + qjy + rij

• Kaidah Belaj...
Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference
System
layer 1
layer 2

layer 4

A1
∏

w1

A2

N

B1

N
∏

B2

x y

layer 3

layer 5

w1
w2...
ANFIS
•

Layer 1 :

•
•
•

•
•
•

O1,i = µAi ( x),

for

i =1, 2, or

O1,i = µBi−2 ( y ),

•

for

i = 3, 4,

x and y are ...
• Layer 3 in node -i :
•
wi
O 3,i = w i =

w1 + w 2

, i = 1,2

• Layer 4 : Node -i is

adaptive node with function
node :...
ANFIS
• Layer 5 : final output :
•

O5 =

∑ wi f i =
i

∑w f
∑w

i i

i

i

i
sspot
200

150

100

50

0

2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
1956
1952
1948

sspot
NASA : Prediction of Solar Cycle
24
Pontianak Region
Correlation Sunspot vs Precip =0.88

Sunspot/Precip

200.00

200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
-50.00

150....
mm/month

Jaya Pura
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00

200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
2002
1999
1996
1...
Jakarta
200.00

200.00

150.00

150.00

100.00

100.00
50.00

50.00

0.00

0.00
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
19...
Fuzzy Clustering

• Fuzzy c-means Algorithm
• Fix c (2≤c≤ n) and select a value for parameter m’,
initialize the partition...
Fuzzy Clustering
• set r=r+1
• Calculate the new c centers :
n
m'.x
∑µ
ik kj
k=
1
vij =
n
m'
∑µ
ik
k=
1
• Calculate the new membership functions

−1


(r +1) =
µ
ik


2/(m'− 1)
 (r ) 




 c d 

 ∑  ik 

 j =1...
• set r=r+1
• Calculate the new c centers :
n
m'.x
∑µ
ik kj
k=
1
vij =
n
m'
∑µ
ik
k=
1
Pengelompokan Samar (Fuzzy
Clustering)
IOD from PAOMA Forecasts
Multivariate Enso Index
Prediksi Curah Hujan Ciliwung Hilir
(DKI Jakarta)

Ciliw ung Hilir Prediksi September 2009 - Maret 2010

Cur Hujan (x100 m...
Prediksi Pentad Ciliwung Hilir

2.5

Ciliw ung Hilir Prediksi Oktober 2009-November 2009

Cur Huj (x100mm)

Data

Prediksi...
Prediksi Curah Hujan Ciliwung Hulu

Ciliw ung Hulu Prediksi September 2009 - Maret 2010

8
Cur Hujan (x100 mm)

Data

Pred...
Cur Huj (x100mm).

Curah Hujan Pentad Ciliwung Hulu

2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
3-Jun-08

Ciliw ung Hulu Predik...
Analisis Hujan Ekstrim DKI dengan
WRF
Data Curah Hujan 2007 BMKG serupa
dengan Hasil WRF
Kesimpulan
• ANFIS & Pengelompokan Samar dapat

digabungkan untuk prediksi/ prakiraan
Iklim jangka panjang dan menegah.
• ...
Banjir 2002
Ciliw ung Hilir Prediksi Agustus 2008 - April 2009

Cur Hujan (x100 mm)

8

Data

Prediksi ANFIS

6
4
2
0
Jan-04

3

Jul-0...
Ciliw ung Hulu Prediksi May 2008 - April 2009

8
Cur Hujan (x100 mm)

Data

Prediksi ANFIS

6

4

2

0
Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan...
Banjir 2005
0

KELAS
>55

>50-<=55

>45-<=50

>40-<=45

>35-<=40

>30-<=35

>25-<=30

>20-<=25

>15-<=20

>10-<=15

>5-<=10

0-<=5

PR...
0.00

-0.20

2017
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954...
Solar activities & Climate
Negative
Positive

Years

sspot

1998
2000
2002

2000
2002

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

19...
Prediksi banjir dki dengan anfis 09
Prediksi banjir dki dengan anfis 09
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Prediksi banjir dki dengan anfis 09

  1. 1. Prediksi Iklim dan Banjir DKI dengan Anfis The Houw Liong P.M.Siregar R.Gernowo H.Widodo S. Nuryanto
  2. 2. Garis Besar • • • • • • • Model Iklim dan Cuaca Hard Computing & Soft Computing Prediktibilitas , Chaos/Weak Causality Kaidah Fuzzy & ANFIS Fuzzy Clustering Deret Waktu Bilangan Bintik Matahari, Curah Hujan & Tinggi Muka Air Kesimpulan
  3. 3. Model Atmosfer
  4. 4. Model Atmosfer
  5. 5. Physical Model • Cloud Formation : Arakawa , Kuo • Interactions : lands, oceans, cryosphere, • biosphere Forcing : Solar activity, volcanic eruptions, cosmic rays • Predictability • Chaos, Attractor, weak causality
  6. 6. Predictability of a Climate Model
  7. 7. Forecasting Based on Soft Computing & Solar cycle • Quasi periodic solar cycle • Sunspot , flare , cme, galactic cosmic rays, interplanetary magnetic field and weather • ENSO & IOD • MJO
  8. 8. Sunspot & cosmic ray
  9. 9. Galactic Cosmic Rays
  10. 10. Cosmic Rays
  11. 11. Kaidah Samar Sugeno (Sugeno Fuzzy Rules) • Untuk x adalah Ai dan y adalah Bj maka z adalah pix + qjy + rij • Kaidah Belajar /Learning Rules : • δv_k = - η∂e_tot/∂v_k
  12. 12. Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System layer 1 layer 2 layer 4 A1 ∏ w1 A2 N B1 N ∏ B2 x y layer 3 layer 5 w1 w2 w2 x y
  13. 13. ANFIS • Layer 1 : • • • • • • O1,i = µAi ( x), for i =1, 2, or O1,i = µBi−2 ( y ), • for i = 3, 4, x and y are input of ode -i and O1,i is membership function of fuzzy set A=(A1,A2) and B=(B1 ,B2 ) with membership function A is : 1 µ (x) = A x− i c 1+ ai 2b O 2,i = w 1 = µ Ai (x) µ Bi ( y) i = 1,2 ai,bi, and ci are parameters Layer 2 : output as the product of input membership functions :
  14. 14. • Layer 3 in node -i : • wi O 3,i = w i = w1 + w 2 , i = 1,2 • Layer 4 : Node -i is adaptive node with function node : O 4,i = w i f i = w i (p i x + q i y + ri )
  15. 15. ANFIS • Layer 5 : final output : • O5 = ∑ wi f i = i ∑w f ∑w i i i i i
  16. 16. sspot 200 150 100 50 0 2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964 1960 1956 1952 1948 sspot
  17. 17. NASA : Prediction of Solar Cycle 24
  18. 18. Pontianak Region Correlation Sunspot vs Precip =0.88 Sunspot/Precip 200.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 -50.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 2002 1999 ave-precip 1996 ave-sunspot 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1978 1975 1972 1969 1966 1963 1960 1957 1954 1951 1948 Years
  19. 19. mm/month Jaya Pura 350.00 300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1978 1975 1972 1969 1966 1963 1960 1957 1954 1951 1948 Years Avg precip sspot
  20. 20. Jakarta 200.00 200.00 150.00 150.00 100.00 100.00 50.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 mm/month 250.00 Years Avg Precip Avg-sspot
  21. 21. Fuzzy Clustering • Fuzzy c-means Algorithm • Fix c (2≤c≤ n) and select a value for parameter m’, initialize the partition matrix U(0), membership functions and the centers . Each step in this algorithm will labeled r, where r=0,1,2,.. • Repeat updating the partition matrix for rth step,U (r) • until U ( r +1) −U (r ) ≤ε
  22. 22. Fuzzy Clustering • set r=r+1 • Calculate the new c centers : n m'.x ∑µ ik kj k= 1 vij = n m' ∑µ ik k= 1
  23. 23. • Calculate the new membership functions −1  (r +1) = µ ik  2/(m'− 1)  (r )       c d    ∑  ik    j =1 (r )    d jk         
  24. 24. • set r=r+1 • Calculate the new c centers : n m'.x ∑µ ik kj k= 1 vij = n m' ∑µ ik k= 1
  25. 25. Pengelompokan Samar (Fuzzy Clustering)
  26. 26. IOD from PAOMA Forecasts
  27. 27. Multivariate Enso Index
  28. 28. Prediksi Curah Hujan Ciliwung Hilir (DKI Jakarta) Ciliw ung Hilir Prediksi September 2009 - Maret 2010 Cur Hujan (x100 mm) 8 Data Prediksi ANFIS Oct-04 Jul-05 6 4 2 0 Jan-04 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jumlah Bulanan Rata-Rata Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10
  29. 29. Prediksi Pentad Ciliwung Hilir 2.5 Ciliw ung Hilir Prediksi Oktober 2009-November 2009 Cur Huj (x100mm) Data Prediksi ANFIS 3-Jun-09 3-Oct-09 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 3-Jun-08 3-Oct-08 3-Feb-09 PENTAD
  30. 30. Prediksi Curah Hujan Ciliwung Hulu Ciliw ung Hulu Prediksi September 2009 - Maret 2010 8 Cur Hujan (x100 mm) Data Prediksi ANFIS 6 4 2 0 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Jumlah Bulanan Rata-Rata Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10
  31. 31. Cur Huj (x100mm). Curah Hujan Pentad Ciliwung Hulu 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 3-Jun-08 Ciliw ung Hulu Prediksi Oktober 2009 - November 2009 Data Prediksii ANFIS 1-Oct-08 29-Jan-09 PENTAD 29-May-09 26-Sep-09
  32. 32. Analisis Hujan Ekstrim DKI dengan WRF
  33. 33. Data Curah Hujan 2007 BMKG serupa dengan Hasil WRF
  34. 34. Kesimpulan • ANFIS & Pengelompokan Samar dapat digabungkan untuk prediksi/ prakiraan Iklim jangka panjang dan menegah. • Prediksi cuaca jangka pendek yang akurat memerlukan model atmosfer dan data radar & satellit cuaca.
  35. 35. Banjir 2002
  36. 36. Ciliw ung Hilir Prediksi Agustus 2008 - April 2009 Cur Hujan (x100 mm) 8 Data Prediksi ANFIS 6 4 2 0 Jan-04 3 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jumlah Bulanan Rata-Rata Jul-08 Jan-09 Ciliw ung Hilir Prediksi September 2008-December 2008 Data 2.5 Cur Huj (x100mm) Jan-08 Prediksi ANFIS 3-Aug-08 3-Nov-08 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 3-Aug-07 3-Nov-07 3-Feb-08 3-May-08 PENTAD
  37. 37. Ciliw ung Hulu Prediksi May 2008 - April 2009 8 Cur Hujan (x100 mm) Data Prediksi ANFIS 6 4 2 0 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Ciliw ung Hulu Prediksi May 2008 - Desember 2008 2.5 Data Cur Huj (x100mm) Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jumlah Bulanan Rata-Rata Prediksii ANFIS 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2-Sep-07 1-Dec-07 29-Feb-08 29-May-08 PENTAD 27-Aug-08 25-Nov-08
  38. 38. Banjir 2005
  39. 39. 0 KELAS >55 >50-<=55 >45-<=50 >40-<=45 >35-<=40 >30-<=35 >25-<=30 >20-<=25 >15-<=20 >10-<=15 >5-<=10 0-<=5 PROB (%) >55 >50-<=55 >45-<=50 >40-<=45 >35-<=40 >30-<=35 >25-<=30 >20-<=25 >15-<=20 >10-<=15 >5-<=10 0-<=5 PROB (%) PROBABILITAS INTENSITAS Curah Hujan INTENSITAS C.H. ( 1957 - 1988 ) JAKARTA (745 ) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 KELAS INTENSITAS C.H. ( 1985 - 2003 ) BOGOR 60 50 40 30 20 10
  40. 40. 0.00 -0.20 2017 2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1978 1975 1972 1969 1966 1963 1960 1957 1954 1951 1948 IOD IOD IOD 0.60 0.40 0.20 -0.40 -0.60 Years
  41. 41. Solar activities & Climate
  42. 42. Negative Positive Years sspot 1998 2000 2002 2000 2002 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 1998 0,00 1996 50,00 1996 100,00 1994 150,00 1994 200,00 1992 Positive-Negative of Indian Dipole Mode Years 1992 sspot 1990 Years 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 Elnino 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 Lanina 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 1948 0,00 1948 Sunspot Number Sunspot Number Elnino-Lanina Years 200,00 150,00 100,00 50,00

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