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Steve harney september 2009 ppt

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Transcript

  • 1. Effective Communication
    and the meaning of ‘Edutize’
  • 2. www.steveharneyblog.com
  • 3. Leadership
    in the Current Real Estate Environment
    Sunday, November 15
    9:00am-10:30am
  • 4. Reports are still looking good!!
    UP!
    Pending home sales
    UP!
    Existing home sales
    UP!
    New construction
  • 5. Sources: Bubble Meter 8/22/09
  • 6. Case Shiller
    “These four months of improvement are the first time we have seen broad increases in home prices in 34 months.”
    - S&P index committee chairman David Blitzer
    Source: Micro Markets 7/28/09
  • 7. Prices
    “It really is too soon to call this a turning point.”
    • Robert Shiller, the Yale economist
    who helped create the index
    Sources: Wall Street Journal 8/25/2009
  • 8. Source: Seeking Alpha, Tom Iacono 7/05/09
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Media headlines should not alter our business plans nor our diligence.
  • 12. People don’t believe
    what you tell them.
    They always believe
    what they tell themselves.
  • 13. Cost vs. Price
  • 14. New York Times
    “If prices come down another 10% but interest rates increase by 1 percentage point, that would mean the same monthly payment today versus waiting.”
    Source: New York Times 7/27/09
  • 15. What will happen to house values in the
    next six months?
  • 16. Sales vs. Prices
    “I expect, I hope, we’ll see stabilization. While there are still great concerns, we’re beginning to see the seeds of bottoming, not in prices yet,
    but in sales.”
    - Alan Greenspanat the NAR Midyear Conference
    Sales
    Prices
  • 17. HomeGain 3rd Quarter Realtor Survey
    In the next six months, do you think the
    values of homes in your market will:
    Sources: Homegain 8/2009
  • 18. Supply & Demand
    “One of the most vital fundamentals (in housing), the ratio between supply and demand, is still out of whack.”
    - Newsweek
    Sources: Newsweek 8/31/2009
  • 19. 32%
  • 20. How big a role will foreclosures play?
  • 21. Delinquency Rates
    13.16% in the second quarter of 2009
    Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association 8/09
  • 22. Sources: Seeking Alpha 8/24/2009
  • 23. ‘Cure Rate’
    for prime loans
    dropped
    to 6.6%
    from an average of 45% for the years 2000 through 2006.
    Sources: Wall Street Journal 8/24/2009
  • 24. Causes of Mortgage Foreclosures (2nd half 2008)
    Source: Wall Street Journal, Stan Liebowitz 7/3/09
  • 25. Wisconsin Unemployment
    8.7%
    Source: Google 9/09/09
  • 26. Mortgages Underwater
    Wisconsin
    20%
    Sources: First American CoreLogic 8/09
  • 27. suffering
    The High End is also…
    “Jumbo prime foreclosure rates up 580 percent since January 2008.”
    - Lender Processing Services July Mortgage Monitor Report
  • 28. Mortgage loan defaults as a strategy
    More than 25% of mortgage loan defaults are strategic.
    • ‘Moral and Social Restraints to
    Strategic Default on Mortgages’
    Source: Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management, the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the European University Institute 7/09
  • 29. “The Treasury expects ‘millions of foreclosures’ even if the HAMP is a total success.”
    • Herbert Allison, US Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial stability
  • Shouldn’t I just wait if a want to sell my home?
  • 30. Today’s Price
    Projected
    Bottom
    May 2010
    Nov 2011
    Source: CME Group 6/09
  • 31. Mortgage Bankers Association
    “The housing market may not stabilize until the first quarter of 2011, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today, upon release of its National Delinquency Survey.”
    2010
    2009
    2011
    Source: Housing Wire 5/28/09
  • 32. “With any luck, three years should be long enough for the U.S. economy to recover and for the nation's housing inventory to shrink to more normal levels.”
    Source: Business Week 6/09
  • 33. USA Today
    Wisconsin
    2012 or later
  • 34. Short Sales
    jumped 208 percent during the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2008.
    2008
    2010
    Source: Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller 6/09
  • 35. Total
    Communication
    Total
    Communication
    Deal in person
  • 36. ‘Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen.’
    -Winston Churchill
  • 37. The two most important rules:
    You didn’t hear what I just said.
    Listen for what the person is saying, not for what they just said.
  • 38. The chicken was ready to eat.
    The sheriff caught the man with the gun.
    She tickled the baby with the stuffed animal.
    Mary put the candy in her mouth on the table.
    Let’s test the rules
  • 39. The facts:
    • We speak at 100-175words per minute.
    • 40. We can intelligently listen at 600-800 words per minute.
  • 10 Steps to better listening
    First, stop talking!
    Put the other person at ease.
    Show the other person you want to hear them.
    Remove any distractions.
    Learn to empathize.
    Be patient. Don’t assume you can finish their sentence.
    Let’s test #6
  • 41. Did you hear the whole sentence?
    He didn’t want to take the apartment because of the bugs…
    The lawyer took the big case…
    He was afraid of Ali’s punch…
    he didn’t want the police listening to his conversations.
    he knew it could hold all his papers.
    he thought it might be spiked with alcohol.
  • 42. ‘One of the hardest things to do in life is to listen without intent to reply.’
    - Author Unknown
  • 43. 7.Watch your own emotions.
    8. Be very slow to disagree, criticize or argue.
    9. Ask lots of questions.
    10 Steps to better listening
  • 44. Quiz
    Think of a number from 1 to 10
    Multiply that number by 9
    If the number is a 2-digit number, add the digits together
    Now subtract 5
    Determine which letter in the alphabet corresponds to the number you ended up with (example: 1=a, 2=b, 3=c, etc.)
    Think of a country that starts with that letter
    Remember the last letter of the name of that country
    Think of the name of an animal that starts with that letter
    Remember the last letter in the name of that animal
    Think of the name of a fruit that starts with that letter
  • 45. How did I know?
    DENMARK
  • 46. 7.Watch your own emotions.
    8. Be very slow to disagree, criticize or argue.
    9. Ask lots of questions.
    10. Stop talking!!!
    10 Steps to better listening
  • 47. Levels of listening
    Most
    Listening to feel what is being said
    Feelings
    Listening to analyze and evaluate content
    Thoughts and beliefs
    Listening to retain content
    Energy
    Listening to understand content
    Facts
    Hearing
    Least
  • 48. 10 years
    from now
  • 49. 1 year
    from now