Steve harney september 2009 ppt

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Steve harney september 2009 ppt

  1. 1. Effective Communication<br />and the meaning of ‘Edutize’<br />
  2. 2. www.steveharneyblog.com<br />
  3. 3. Leadership<br />in the Current Real Estate Environment<br />Sunday, November 15<br />9:00am-10:30am<br />
  4. 4. Reports are still looking good!!<br />UP!<br />Pending home sales<br />UP!<br />Existing home sales<br />UP!<br />New construction<br />
  5. 5. Sources: Bubble Meter 8/22/09<br />
  6. 6. Case Shiller<br />“These four months of improvement are the first time we have seen broad increases in home prices in 34 months.”<br />- S&P index committee chairman David Blitzer<br />Source: Micro Markets 7/28/09<br />
  7. 7. Prices<br />“It really is too soon to call this a turning point.”<br /><ul><li> Robert Shiller, the Yale economist </li></ul>who helped create the index<br />Sources: Wall Street Journal 8/25/2009<br />
  8. 8. Source: Seeking Alpha, Tom Iacono 7/05/09 <br />
  9. 9.
  10. 10.
  11. 11. Media headlines should not alter our business plans nor our diligence.<br />
  12. 12. People don’t believe <br />what you tell them.<br />They always believe <br />what they tell themselves.<br />
  13. 13. Cost vs. Price<br />
  14. 14. New York Times<br />“If prices come down another 10% but interest rates increase by 1 percentage point, that would mean the same monthly payment today versus waiting.”<br />Source: New York Times 7/27/09<br />
  15. 15. What will happen to house values in the <br />next six months?<br />
  16. 16. Sales vs. Prices<br />“I expect, I hope, we’ll see stabilization. While there are still great concerns, we’re beginning to see the seeds of bottoming, not in prices yet,<br />but in sales.”<br />- Alan Greenspanat the NAR Midyear Conference<br />Sales<br />Prices<br />
  17. 17. HomeGain 3rd Quarter Realtor Survey<br />In the next six months, do you think the <br />values of homes in your market will:<br />Sources: Homegain 8/2009<br />
  18. 18. Supply & Demand<br />“One of the most vital fundamentals (in housing), the ratio between supply and demand, is still out of whack.”<br />- Newsweek<br />Sources: Newsweek 8/31/2009<br />
  19. 19. 32%<br />
  20. 20. How big a role will foreclosures play?<br />
  21. 21. Delinquency Rates<br />13.16% in the second quarter of 2009<br />Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association 8/09<br />
  22. 22. Sources: Seeking Alpha 8/24/2009<br />
  23. 23. ‘Cure Rate’<br />for prime loans<br />dropped <br />to 6.6%<br />from an average of 45% for the years 2000 through 2006. <br />Sources: Wall Street Journal 8/24/2009<br />
  24. 24. Causes of Mortgage Foreclosures (2nd half 2008)<br />Source: Wall Street Journal, Stan Liebowitz 7/3/09<br />
  25. 25. Wisconsin Unemployment<br />8.7%<br />Source: Google 9/09/09<br />
  26. 26. Mortgages Underwater<br />Wisconsin<br />20%<br />Sources: First American CoreLogic 8/09<br />
  27. 27. suffering<br />The High End is also…<br />“Jumbo prime foreclosure rates up 580 percent since January 2008.”<br />- Lender Processing Services July Mortgage Monitor Report <br />
  28. 28. Mortgage loan defaults as a strategy<br />More than 25% of mortgage loan defaults are strategic.<br /><ul><li>‘Moral and Social Restraints to </li></ul>Strategic Default on Mortgages’<br />Source: Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management, the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the European University Institute 7/09<br />
  29. 29. “The Treasury expects ‘millions of foreclosures’ even if the HAMP is a total success.” <br /><ul><li>Herbert Allison, US Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial stability</li></li></ul><li>Shouldn’t I just wait if a want to sell my home?<br />
  30. 30. Today’s Price<br />Projected <br />Bottom<br />May 2010<br />Nov 2011<br />Source: CME Group 6/09<br />
  31. 31. Mortgage Bankers Association<br />“The housing market may not stabilize until the first quarter of 2011, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today, upon release of its National Delinquency Survey.” <br />2010<br />2009<br />2011<br />Source: Housing Wire 5/28/09<br />
  32. 32. “With any luck, three years should be long enough for the U.S. economy to recover and for the nation's housing inventory to shrink to more normal levels.”<br />Source: Business Week 6/09<br />
  33. 33. USA Today<br />Wisconsin<br />2012 or later<br />
  34. 34. Short Sales<br />jumped 208 percent during the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2008.<br />2008<br />2010<br />Source: Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller 6/09<br />
  35. 35. Total<br />Communication<br />Total<br />Communication<br />Deal in person<br />
  36. 36. ‘Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen.’ <br /> -Winston Churchill<br />
  37. 37. The two most important rules:<br />You didn’t hear what I just said.<br />Listen for what the person is saying, not for what they just said.<br />
  38. 38. The chicken was ready to eat.<br />The sheriff caught the man with the gun.<br />She tickled the baby with the stuffed animal.<br />Mary put the candy in her mouth on the table.<br />Let’s test the rules<br />
  39. 39. The facts:<br /><ul><li>We speak at 100-175words per minute.
  40. 40. We can intelligently listen at 600-800 words per minute.</li></li></ul><li>10 Steps to better listening<br />First, stop talking!<br />Put the other person at ease.<br />Show the other person you want to hear them.<br />Remove any distractions.<br />Learn to empathize. <br />Be patient. Don’t assume you can finish their sentence.<br />Let’s test #6<br />
  41. 41. Did you hear the whole sentence?<br />He didn’t want to take the apartment because of the bugs…<br />The lawyer took the big case…<br />He was afraid of Ali’s punch…<br />he didn’t want the police listening to his conversations.<br />he knew it could hold all his papers.<br />he thought it might be spiked with alcohol. <br />
  42. 42. ‘One of the hardest things to do in life is to listen without intent to reply.’<br /> - Author Unknown<br />
  43. 43. 7.Watch your own emotions.<br />8. Be very slow to disagree, criticize or argue.<br />9. Ask lots of questions.<br />10 Steps to better listening<br />
  44. 44. Quiz<br />Think of a number from 1 to 10 <br />Multiply that number by 9 <br />If the number is a 2-digit number, add the digits together <br />Now subtract 5 <br />Determine which letter in the alphabet corresponds to the number you ended up with (example: 1=a, 2=b, 3=c, etc.) <br />Think of a country that starts with that letter <br />Remember the last letter of the name of that country <br />Think of the name of an animal that starts with that letter <br />Remember the last letter in the name of that animal <br />Think of the name of a fruit that starts with that letter <br />
  45. 45. How did I know?<br />DENMARK<br />
  46. 46. 7.Watch your own emotions.<br />8. Be very slow to disagree, criticize or argue.<br />9. Ask lots of questions.<br />10. Stop talking!!!<br />10 Steps to better listening<br />
  47. 47. Levels of listening<br />Most<br />Listening to feel what is being said<br />Feelings<br />Listening to analyze and evaluate content<br />Thoughts and beliefs<br />Listening to retain content<br />Energy<br />Listening to understand content<br />Facts<br />Hearing<br />Least<br />
  48. 48. 10 years <br />from now<br />
  49. 49. 1 year<br />from now<br />

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