Steve harney september 2009 pptPresentation Transcript
Effective Communication and the meaning of ‘Edutize’
Leadership in the Current Real Estate Environment Sunday, November 15 9:00am-10:30am
Reports are still looking good!! UP! Pending home sales UP! Existing home sales UP! New construction
Sources: Bubble Meter 8/22/09
Case Shiller “These four months of improvement are the first time we have seen broad increases in home prices in 34 months.” - S&P index committee chairman David Blitzer Source: Micro Markets 7/28/09
Prices “It really is too soon to call this a turning point.”
Robert Shiller, the Yale economist
who helped create the index Sources: Wall Street Journal 8/25/2009
Source: Seeking Alpha, Tom Iacono 7/05/09
Media headlines should not alter our business plans nor our diligence.
People don’t believe what you tell them. They always believe what they tell themselves.
Cost vs. Price
New York Times “If prices come down another 10% but interest rates increase by 1 percentage point, that would mean the same monthly payment today versus waiting.” Source: New York Times 7/27/09
What will happen to house values in the next six months?
Sales vs. Prices “I expect, I hope, we’ll see stabilization. While there are still great concerns, we’re beginning to see the seeds of bottoming, not in prices yet, but in sales.” - Alan Greenspanat the NAR Midyear Conference Sales Prices
HomeGain 3rd Quarter Realtor Survey In the next six months, do you think the values of homes in your market will: Sources: Homegain 8/2009
Supply & Demand “One of the most vital fundamentals (in housing), the ratio between supply and demand, is still out of whack.” - Newsweek Sources: Newsweek 8/31/2009
How big a role will foreclosures play?
Delinquency Rates 13.16% in the second quarter of 2009 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association 8/09
Sources: Seeking Alpha 8/24/2009
‘Cure Rate’ for prime loans dropped to 6.6% from an average of 45% for the years 2000 through 2006. Sources: Wall Street Journal 8/24/2009
Causes of Mortgage Foreclosures (2nd half 2008) Source: Wall Street Journal, Stan Liebowitz 7/3/09
Wisconsin Unemployment 8.7% Source: Google 9/09/09
Mortgages Underwater Wisconsin 20% Sources: First American CoreLogic 8/09
suffering The High End is also… “Jumbo prime foreclosure rates up 580 percent since January 2008.” - Lender Processing Services July Mortgage Monitor Report
Mortgage loan defaults as a strategy More than 25% of mortgage loan defaults are strategic.
‘Moral and Social Restraints to
Strategic Default on Mortgages’ Source: Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management, the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the European University Institute 7/09
“The Treasury expects ‘millions of foreclosures’ even if the HAMP is a total success.”
Herbert Allison, US Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial stability
Shouldn’t I just wait if a want to sell my home?
Today’s Price Projected Bottom May 2010 Nov 2011 Source: CME Group 6/09
Mortgage Bankers Association “The housing market may not stabilize until the first quarter of 2011, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today, upon release of its National Delinquency Survey.” 2010 2009 2011 Source: Housing Wire 5/28/09
“With any luck, three years should be long enough for the U.S. economy to recover and for the nation's housing inventory to shrink to more normal levels.” Source: Business Week 6/09
USA Today Wisconsin 2012 or later
Short Sales jumped 208 percent during the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2008. 2008 2010 Source: Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller 6/09
Total Communication Total Communication Deal in person
‘Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen.’ -Winston Churchill
The two most important rules: You didn’t hear what I just said. Listen for what the person is saying, not for what they just said.
The chicken was ready to eat. The sheriff caught the man with the gun. She tickled the baby with the stuffed animal. Mary put the candy in her mouth on the table. Let’s test the rules
We speak at 100-175words per minute.
We can intelligently listen at 600-800 words per minute.
10 Steps to better listening First, stop talking! Put the other person at ease. Show the other person you want to hear them. Remove any distractions. Learn to empathize. Be patient. Don’t assume you can finish their sentence. Let’s test #6
Did you hear the whole sentence? He didn’t want to take the apartment because of the bugs… The lawyer took the big case… He was afraid of Ali’s punch… he didn’t want the police listening to his conversations. he knew it could hold all his papers. he thought it might be spiked with alcohol.
‘One of the hardest things to do in life is to listen without intent to reply.’ - Author Unknown
7.Watch your own emotions. 8. Be very slow to disagree, criticize or argue. 9. Ask lots of questions. 10 Steps to better listening
Quiz Think of a number from 1 to 10 Multiply that number by 9 If the number is a 2-digit number, add the digits together Now subtract 5 Determine which letter in the alphabet corresponds to the number you ended up with (example: 1=a, 2=b, 3=c, etc.) Think of a country that starts with that letter Remember the last letter of the name of that country Think of the name of an animal that starts with that letter Remember the last letter in the name of that animal Think of the name of a fruit that starts with that letter
How did I know? DENMARK
7.Watch your own emotions. 8. Be very slow to disagree, criticize or argue. 9. Ask lots of questions. 10. Stop talking!!! 10 Steps to better listening
Levels of listening Most Listening to feel what is being said Feelings Listening to analyze and evaluate content Thoughts and beliefs Listening to retain content Energy Listening to understand content Facts Hearing Least