HorizonWatching:  How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
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HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures

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This deck provides an overview of eight initiatives at IBM designed to help IBM understand emerging trends, technologies, and business issues that will face IBM and our customers in the future.

This deck provides an overview of eight initiatives at IBM designed to help IBM understand emerging trends, technologies, and business issues that will face IBM and our customers in the future.

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HorizonWatching:  How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures Presentation Transcript

  • HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    Bill Chamberlin – Principal Analyst, IBM Market Insights
    17 Aug 2011
  • Howdoes a companysurvive 100 years?
    2
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • Howdoes a companysurvive 200 years?
    3
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • Table of Contents
    How IBM Develops a View of theFuture: EightIBM Foresight Initiatives
    How I, as a Market Insights Professional, Develop a View of the Future
    4
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • IBM has a diverse, evolving, set of internal foresight capabilities focused on technology, society and business
    5
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    Global
    Technology
    Outlook
    (GTO)
    Global
    Innovation
    Outlook
    (GIO)
    Eight IBM Foresight Initiatives
    Global Technology Outlook
    Academy of Technology
    First of a Kind (FOAK)
    Global Innovation Outlook
    InnovationJam
    Institute for Business Value
    Market Development & Insights
    HorizonWatch Community
    Academy of
    Technology
    (AoT)
    First
    of a Kind
    (FOAK)
    InnovationJam
    Institute for
    Business
    Value
    (IBV)
    Market Development & Insights
    (MDI)
    Community: Horizonwatch
  • 6
    The Global Technology Outlook is developed annually by IBM Research, which has 11 labs located in 9 countries
    Dublin
    China
    Zurich
    Tokyo
    Watson
    Haifa
    Almaden
    India
    Austin
    Melbourne
    Rio
    5 Nobel Laureates
    14 National Medals
    6 Turing Awards
    80 Members of National Academies
    11 Inductees, National Inventors Hall of Fame
    IBM Research Lab
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 7
    The Global Technology Outlook team solicits input from the wide diversity of disciplines at IBM Research
    Computer Science
    Behavioral Sciences
    Engineering
    Chemistry
    Improved human computer interaction
    sub-micron lithography
    Deep QA for Natural Language Processing (Watson)
    Nano-science and Nano-technology
    Mathematical Sciences
    Service Science, Management & Engineering
    Materials Science
    Physics
    Science & Engineering
    Business & Management
    BusinessInnovation
    TechnologyInnovation
    Social Innovation
    Demand Innovation
    Economics & Markets
    Social & CognitiveSciences
    protein folding
    Trackpoint for Thinkpad, Risk Management
    Organic Semiconductors
    Improve services-led economy
    http://www.research.ibm.com/areas.shtml
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 8
    Global
    Technology
    Outlook
    (GTO)
    IBM Research’s annual Global Technology Outlook identifies disruptive societal, technical and economic trends that might impact IBM and its clients
    Objective
    The GTO identifies significant technology trends early.
    It looks for high impact disruptive technologies leading to game changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon
    Disruptive technologies, potential new technologies, game changers
    Identify trends - - exponentials, thresholds, discontinuities, walls
    New technologies, new markets
    The GTO is used to drive technical initiatives in IBM Research and to jointly engage with IBM in formulating these initiatives
    About The Process
    It’s a process that takes the whole year and involves getting input from all IBM Industry and Business Unit Strategists, IBM Research employees, University researchers, partners, and suppliers
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 2011 GTO Topics – What does IBM Research think is going to be important in the future?
    http://www-05.ibm.com/ch/ibm_sap_portfolio/pdf/Global_Technology_Outlook_2011.pdf
    9
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • A sidebenefit of the GTO processisthe “5 in 5” series of foresightpredictionspublishedeveryyear
    10
    http://youtu.be/2m7ticc7jnE
    http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33304.wss
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • The Global Innovation Outlook focused more on broad issues impacting all types of organizations
    Global
    Innovation
    Outlook
    (GIO)
    Focused on broad and challenging topics – spanning geographies, generations, industries and interests
    Ran from 2004-09, picked 2-3 topics per year
    Surfaced insights and opportunities for business and societal innovation
    Open, collaborative, multi-disciplinary process with external business leaders, academics, researchers and policymakers
    Helped to launch IBM spin-off projects
    http://www.ibm.com/ibm/gio/us/en/index.html
    11
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 12
    The IBM Academy of Technology is a society of IBM technical leaders across all IBM Business Units
    Academy of
    Technology
    (AoT)
    Academy Mission
    Advance the understanding of key emerging technical areas,
    Improve development of IBM's global technical community,
    Engage clients in technical pursuits of mutual value.
    Sets the Technical Agenda via ‘Activities’
    Anyone in IBM’s technical community can start an Academy activity
    Currently, many activities are in areas such as:
    Smarter Planet
    Cloud Computing
    Business Analytics and Optimization
    What makes a good Academy activity?
    Stimulate, organize, synthesize and advance technical dialogue and innovation across business lines
    Understand the gaps and address the opportunities for innovation that occur at the intersections of units and technical disciplines,
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/academy/index.html
  • 13
    The First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) Program encourages collaboration of early adopter clients with IBM Research and Sales
    First
    of a Kind
    (FOAK)
    Pushes early thought leadership and experiences with new technologies
    Pilot experimental solutions & deliver working prototypes
    Validate market requirements
    Test market readiness
    250+ projects completed
    Recognized industry best practice
    Frost & Sullivan Certified Best Practice
    Innovation Passport: The IBM First-of-a-Kind Journey From Research to Reality
    FOAK accelerates the delivery of innovation from the research labs into the market
    http://www.research.ibm.com/FOAK/index.shtml
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 14
    InnovationJam: IBM’s online approach to large-scale collaborative brainstorming
    InnovationJam
    • Online collaborative discussions for focused audiences ranging in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands
    • Innovation events over a defined period of time to capture the pulse of the group or to solicit specific ideas to critical business or societal issues
    • Jam Hosts and facilitators guide participants to build on each other’s ideas – supporting a meaningful exchange of perspectives by a focused audience around a shared topic
    • Real-time text analysis and data mining to highlight emerging trends and distill actionable results
    https://www.collaborationjam.com/
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 15
    InnovationJam Example: Habitat Jam
    • The World Urban Forum (WUF) was established by the United Nations to examine rapid urbanization and its impact on cities, economies and policies
    • HabitatJam was the largest brainstorming event on urban sustainability bringing together not only NGOs, politicians and academia – but the slum dwellers whose lives were directly impacted by this body
    • Results: Over 30,000 participants from 158 countries generated 600+ ideas. 70 of these were presented and adopted at the WUF3 conference as its official platform
    "At the heart of the urban crisis is a failure to allow the full participation of ordinary people in the development of the city. It is my hope that innovative technologies associated with Habitat Jam will help bring people closer together to plan and develop truly human settlements.“ Mrs. Anna Tibaijuka, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of UN-HABITAT
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitat_Jam
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 16
    Institute for Business Value
    The IBM Institute for Business Value is global team of 50+ consultants who conduct research and analysis across multiple industries and functional disciplines
    Institute for
    Business
    Value
    (IBV)
    Sector / Industry Teams
    Business Function Teams
    • Strategy & Change
    • Customer Relationship Management
    • Financial Management
    • Human Capital Management
    • Supply Chain Management
    • Application Innovation
    http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 17
    Institute for Business Value
    IBV’s thought leadership provides an original, research-based point of view told from a client’s business perspective
    Institute for
    Business
    Value
    (IBV)
    Examples of Thought Leadership Studies
    “Future Agendas”
    CXO Surveys
    Example reports include the CEO Study, CHRO Study, CFO Study, and CIO Study
    3 to 10 year industry and/or functional area outlook with action oriented next steps
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • IBM Market Insight’s Strategic Perspectives Team accelerates the understanding of new or emerging markets, and act as a catalyst for future growth.
    Market Development & Insights
    (MDI)
    The IBM MI Strategic Perspectives Team provides the initial foresight and insight for new and emerging market opportunities and competitive threats.
    This includes providing a Market Insightsperspective
    Market Definition
    Potential Opportunity
    Drivers/Inhibitors
    Potential Segmentation
    Geographical Differences
    Competitive Intelligence
    ExampleReports
    • Future of Nuclear Energy ● Next Emerging Geographic Markets ●Consumer Product Goods in Rural China ●Climate Change/Energy & Environment ●Physical Infrastructure in Growth Markets ●Advanced Water Management ●Intelligent Buildings ●Smarter Cities ● 2015 Growth Strategy
    18
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • Market Insight’s Center for Applied Insights White Paper: “100 years of foresight: The importance of long-term thinking at IBM”
    19
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    Market Development & Insights
    (MDI)
    “The practice of corporate foresight helps the enterprise avoid strategic surprise and reduce uncertainty in decision making. It allows the enterprise to think through the consequences of unanticipated change, envisioning what might be possible and deciding what would be preferable.”
    Authors:
    • David Jarvis, Senior Consultant, IBM Center for Applied Insights
    • Steve Rogers, Director, IBM Center for Applied Insight
    http://bit.ly/kdPG80
  • The HorizonWatch Community was formed in 2001 to bring together all IBMers interested in understanding the future(s).
    Community: Horizonwatch
    Demographics
    This is a cross-IBM community of 1900+ IBMers from all types of functions, divisions and geographies.
    Focus
    Emerging trends and technologies
    Conference calls
    Topics are presented to the community by subject matter experts
    Collaboration platforms
    Blog
    Discussion forums
    Bookmarks
    File sharing
    Wikis
    20
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 21
    Community Objective:
    Improve our collective ability to sense future disruptive technologies, business issues, trends and opportunities.
    Benefit of the Community:
    Diversity of the community means different perspectives, which enhances collaboration and sparks innovation.
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 22
    HorizonWatch: 150 Conference Calls Since 2001
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • Every year, an annual trends document is produced and presented to the community.
    23
    Community: Horizonwatch
    2011 Trends
    Private Clouds
    Virtualization
    Social Business
    Mobile Computing
    Storage Trends
    Advanced Business Analytics
    The Personalized Web
    Video-enabled Business Processes
    Service Oriented Architecture
    Sustainability & IT
    Risk Management
    Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • Other trend reports are produced and presented to the community.
    24
    Top Trends in Digital Marketing For 2011
    Marketing Budgets Continue to Shift Towards Online
    Social Media Marketing Is Maturing (Slowly)
    Mobile Marketing Poised To Take Off
    Personalized Marketing: Customize To Each Individual
    Social Video As A Marketing Tool Gains Momentum
    Search Engine Optimization Gets More Complex
    Marketing Analytics Helps Make Sense Of All The Noise
    Real Time Web Assistance Connects Buyer With Expert
    Online Privacy Concerns Continue
    Digital Marketing Optimization Emerges As A Priority
    Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching
    Blog Post: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For 2011 http://bit.ly/aHOY3P
    Slide Deck: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For 2011 http://slidesha.re/fYUCgp
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 25
    As A Market Insights Analyst, How Do I Approach Trends Research?
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 26
    In additional to traditional trend spotting, I leverage social media and communities….
    Scanning: Search to understand what people are talking about.
    Brainstorming: Two is better than one. Hundreds are better than two. Thousands are better than hundreds.
    Publishing: Posting content online helps establish my reach and authority
    Idea Development: Get feedback and improve my research
    Networking: Connect with other subject matter experts.
    Learning: Develop a better understanding of the potential future(s)
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • 27
    Sharing thought leadership content via a blog helps me develop my understanding of key trends and get feedback from readers
    A Primer on Smarter Water
    A Primer On Cloud Computing
    A Primer on Nanotechnology
    A Primer on Telepresence
    A Primer on Unified Communications
    A Primer on Futurists
    A Primer on 3D Printing
    A Primer on Scenario Planning
    A Primer on the Website Personalization Trend
    A Primer on the Consumer Market for Household Robots
    A Primer on the Trend Towards Video-enabled Business Processes
    A Primer on the Smart Grid and Intelligent Utility Network Trend
    A Primer On Water Management Issues
    A Primer on Advanced Business Analytics
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • Collaborate with me…I can be found at the following social sites…
    • LinkedIn = Bill Chamberlin
    • Thought Leadership Blog = Horizonwatching on Typepad
    • Signal/Scanning Blog = HorizonWatching on Tumblr
    • Twitter ID = Horizonwatching
    • Facebook = HorizonWatching
    • Online Newsletter = HorizonWatching
    • Slideshare IBM Expert Network = HorizonWatching
    • Google+ = Bill Chamberlin
    • LinkedIn Group = Horizonwatching
    • A Smarter Planet = Blog on Tumblr
    • The InfoBoom Community = Profile Page
    28
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    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
  • ThankYou
    29
    HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures