HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures

HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Bill Chamberlin – Principal Analyst, IBM Market Insights
17 Aug 2011

Howdoes a companysurvive 100 years?
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Howdoes a companysurvive 200 years?
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Table of Contents
How IBM Develops a View of theFuture: EightIBM Foresight Initiatives
How I, as a Market Insights Professional, Develop a View of the Future
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IBM has a diverse, evolving, set of internal foresight capabilities focused on technology, society and business
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Global
Technology
Outlook
(GTO)
Global
Innovation
Outlook
(GIO)
Eight IBM Foresight Initiatives
Global Technology Outlook
Academy of Technology
First of a Kind (FOAK)
Global Innovation Outlook
InnovationJam
Institute for Business Value
Market Development & Insights
HorizonWatch Community
Academy of
Technology
(AoT)
First
of a Kind
(FOAK)
InnovationJam
Institute for
Business
Value
(IBV)
(MDI)
Community: Horizonwatch

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The Global Technology Outlook is developed annually by IBM Research, which has 11 labs located in 9 countries
Dublin
China
Zurich
Tokyo
Watson
Haifa
Almaden
India
Austin
Melbourne
Rio
5 Nobel Laureates
14 National Medals
6 Turing Awards
80 Members of National Academies
11 Inductees, National Inventors Hall of Fame
IBM Research Lab

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The Global Technology Outlook team solicits input from the wide diversity of disciplines at IBM Research
Computer Science
Behavioral Sciences
Engineering
Chemistry
Improved human computer interaction
sub-micron lithography
Deep QA for Natural Language Processing (Watson)
Nano-science and Nano-technology
Mathematical Sciences
Service Science, Management & Engineering
Materials Science
Physics
Science & Engineering
Business & Management
BusinessInnovation
TechnologyInnovation
Social Innovation
Demand Innovation
Economics & Markets
Social & CognitiveSciences
protein folding
Trackpoint for Thinkpad, Risk Management
Organic Semiconductors
Improve services-led economy
http://www.research.ibm.com/areas.shtml

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Global
Technology
Outlook
(GTO)
IBM Research’s annual Global Technology Outlook identifies disruptive societal, technical and economic trends that might impact IBM and its clients
Objective
The GTO identifies significant technology trends early.
It looks for high impact disruptive technologies leading to game changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon
Disruptive technologies, potential new technologies, game changers
Identify trends - - exponentials, thresholds, discontinuities, walls
New technologies, new markets
The GTO is used to drive technical initiatives in IBM Research and to jointly engage with IBM in formulating these initiatives
About The Process
It’s a process that takes the whole year and involves getting input from all IBM Industry and Business Unit Strategists, IBM Research employees, University researchers, partners, and suppliers

2011 GTO Topics – What does IBM Research think is going to be important in the future?
http://www-05.ibm.com/ch/ibm_sap_portfolio/pdf/Global_Technology_Outlook_2011.pdf
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A sidebenefit of the GTO processisthe “5 in 5” series of foresightpredictionspublishedeveryyear
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http://youtu.be/2m7ticc7jnE
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33304.wss

The Global Innovation Outlook focused more on broad issues impacting all types of organizations
Global
Innovation
Outlook
(GIO)
Focused on broad and challenging topics – spanning geographies, generations, industries and interests
Ran from 2004-09, picked 2-3 topics per year
Surfaced insights and opportunities for business and societal innovation
Open, collaborative, multi-disciplinary process with external business leaders, academics, researchers and policymakers
Helped to launch IBM spin-off projects
http://www.ibm.com/ibm/gio/us/en/index.html
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The IBM Academy of Technology is a society of IBM technical leaders across all IBM Business Units
Academy of
Technology
(AoT)
Academy Mission
Advance the understanding of key emerging technical areas,
Improve development of IBM's global technical community,
Engage clients in technical pursuits of mutual value.
Sets the Technical Agenda via ‘Activities’
Anyone in IBM’s technical community can start an Academy activity
Currently, many activities are in areas such as:
Smarter Planet
Cloud Computing
Business Analytics and Optimization
What makes a good Academy activity?
Stimulate, organize, synthesize and advance technical dialogue and innovation across business lines
Understand the gaps and address the opportunities for innovation that occur at the intersections of units and technical disciplines,
http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/academy/index.html

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The First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) Program encourages collaboration of early adopter clients with IBM Research and Sales
First
of a Kind
(FOAK)
Pushes early thought leadership and experiences with new technologies
Pilot experimental solutions & deliver working prototypes
Validate market requirements
Test market readiness
250+ projects completed
Recognized industry best practice
Frost & Sullivan Certified Best Practice
Innovation Passport: The IBM First-of-a-Kind Journey From Research to Reality
FOAK accelerates the delivery of innovation from the research labs into the market
http://www.research.ibm.com/FOAK/index.shtml

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InnovationJam: IBM’s online approach to large-scale collaborative brainstorming
InnovationJam
Online collaborative discussions for focused audiences ranging in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands
Innovation events over a defined period of time to capture the pulse of the group or to solicit specific ideas to critical business or societal issues
Jam Hosts and facilitators guide participants to build on each other’s ideas – supporting a meaningful exchange of perspectives by a focused audience around a shared topic
Real-time text analysis and data mining to highlight emerging trends and distill actionable results
https://www.collaborationjam.com/

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InnovationJam Example: Habitat Jam
The World Urban Forum (WUF) was established by the United Nations to examine rapid urbanization and its impact on cities, economies and policies
HabitatJam was the largest brainstorming event on urban sustainability bringing together not only NGOs, politicians and academia – but the slum dwellers whose lives were directly impacted by this body
Results: Over 30,000 participants from 158 countries generated 600+ ideas. 70 of these were presented and adopted at the WUF3 conference as its official platform
"At the heart of the urban crisis is a failure to allow the full participation of ordinary people in the development of the city. It is my hope that innovative technologies associated with Habitat Jam will help bring people closer together to plan and develop truly human settlements.“ Mrs. Anna Tibaijuka, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of UN-HABITAT
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitat_Jam

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The IBM Institute for Business Value is global team of 50+ consultants who conduct research and analysis across multiple industries and functional disciplines
Institute for
Business
Value
(IBV)
Sector / Industry Teams
Business Function Teams
Strategy & Change
Customer Relationship Management
Financial Management
Human Capital Management
Supply Chain Management
Application Innovation
http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/

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IBV’s thought leadership provides an original, research-based point of view told from a client’s business perspective
Institute for
Business
Value
(IBV)
Examples of Thought Leadership Studies
“Future Agendas”
CXO Surveys
Example reports include the CEO Study, CHRO Study, CFO Study, and CIO Study
3 to 10 year industry and/or functional area outlook with action oriented next steps

IBM Market Insight’s Strategic Perspectives Team accelerates the understanding of new or emerging markets, and act as a catalyst for future growth.
(MDI)
The IBM MI Strategic Perspectives Team provides the initial foresight and insight for new and emerging market opportunities and competitive threats.
This includes providing a Market Insightsperspective
Market Definition
Potential Opportunity
Drivers/Inhibitors
Potential Segmentation
Geographical Differences
Competitive Intelligence
ExampleReports
Future of Nuclear Energy ● Next Emerging Geographic Markets ●Consumer Product Goods in Rural China ●Climate Change/Energy & Environment ●Physical Infrastructure in Growth Markets ●Advanced Water Management ●Intelligent Buildings ●Smarter Cities ● 2015 Growth Strategy
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Market Insight’s Center for Applied Insights White Paper: “100 years of foresight: The importance of long-term thinking at IBM”
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(MDI)
“The practice of corporate foresight helps the enterprise avoid strategic surprise and reduce uncertainty in decision making. It allows the enterprise to think through the consequences of unanticipated change, envisioning what might be possible and deciding what would be preferable.”
Authors:
David Jarvis, Senior Consultant, IBM Center for Applied Insights
Steve Rogers, Director, IBM Center for Applied Insight
http://bit.ly/kdPG80

The HorizonWatch Community was formed in 2001 to bring together all IBMers interested in understanding the future(s).
Demographics
This is a cross-IBM community of 1900+ IBMers from all types of functions, divisions and geographies.
Focus
Emerging trends and technologies
Conference calls
Topics are presented to the community by subject matter experts
Collaboration platforms
Blog
Discussion forums
Bookmarks
File sharing
Wikis
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Community Objective:
Improve our collective ability to sense future disruptive technologies, business issues, trends and opportunities.
Benefit of the Community:
Diversity of the community means different perspectives, which enhances collaboration and sparks innovation.

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HorizonWatch: 150 Conference Calls Since 2001

Every year, an annual trends document is produced and presented to the community.
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2011 Trends
Private Clouds
Virtualization
Social Business
Mobile Computing
Storage Trends
Advanced Business Analytics
The Personalized Web
Video-enabled Business Processes
Service Oriented Architecture
Sustainability & IT
Risk Management
Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching

Other trend reports are produced and presented to the community.
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Top Trends in Digital Marketing For 2011
Marketing Budgets Continue to Shift Towards Online
Social Media Marketing Is Maturing (Slowly)
Mobile Marketing Poised To Take Off
Personalized Marketing: Customize To Each Individual
Social Video As A Marketing Tool Gains Momentum
Search Engine Optimization Gets More Complex
Marketing Analytics Helps Make Sense Of All The Noise
Real Time Web Assistance Connects Buyer With Expert
Online Privacy Concerns Continue
Digital Marketing Optimization Emerges As A Priority
Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching
Blog Post: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For 2011 http://bit.ly/aHOY3P
Slide Deck: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For 2011 http://slidesha.re/fYUCgp

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As A Market Insights Analyst, How Do I Approach Trends Research?

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In additional to traditional trend spotting, I leverage social media and communities….
Scanning: Search to understand what people are talking about.
Brainstorming: Two is better than one. Hundreds are better than two. Thousands are better than hundreds.
Publishing: Posting content online helps establish my reach and authority
Idea Development: Get feedback and improve my research
Networking: Connect with other subject matter experts.
Learning: Develop a better understanding of the potential future(s)

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Sharing thought leadership content via a blog helps me develop my understanding of key trends and get feedback from readers
A Primer on Smarter Water
A Primer On Cloud Computing
A Primer on Nanotechnology
A Primer on Telepresence
A Primer on Unified Communications
A Primer on Futurists
A Primer on 3D Printing
A Primer on Scenario Planning
A Primer on the Website Personalization Trend
A Primer on the Consumer Market for Household Robots
A Primer on the Trend Towards Video-enabled Business Processes
A Primer on the Smart Grid and Intelligent Utility Network Trend
A Primer On Water Management Issues
A Primer on Advanced Business Analytics

Collaborate with me…I can be found at the following social sites…
LinkedIn = Bill Chamberlin
Thought Leadership Blog = Horizonwatching on Typepad
Signal/Scanning Blog = HorizonWatching on Tumblr
Twitter ID = Horizonwatching
Facebook = HorizonWatching
Online Newsletter = HorizonWatching
Slideshare IBM Expert Network = HorizonWatching
Google+ = Bill Chamberlin
LinkedIn Group = Horizonwatching
A Smarter Planet = Blog on Tumblr
The InfoBoom Community = Profile Page
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ThankYou
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HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures

by Bill Chamberlin

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