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HorizonWatching:  How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
 

HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures

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This deck provides an overview of eight initiatives at IBM designed to help IBM understand emerging trends, technologies, and business issues that will face IBM and our customers in the future.

This deck provides an overview of eight initiatives at IBM designed to help IBM understand emerging trends, technologies, and business issues that will face IBM and our customers in the future.

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    HorizonWatching:  How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures Presentation Transcript

    • HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
      Bill Chamberlin – Principal Analyst, IBM Market Insights
      17 Aug 2011
    • Howdoes a companysurvive 100 years?
      2
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • Howdoes a companysurvive 200 years?
      3
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • Table of Contents
      How IBM Develops a View of theFuture: EightIBM Foresight Initiatives
      How I, as a Market Insights Professional, Develop a View of the Future
      4
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • IBM has a diverse, evolving, set of internal foresight capabilities focused on technology, society and business
      5
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
      Global
      Technology
      Outlook
      (GTO)
      Global
      Innovation
      Outlook
      (GIO)
      Eight IBM Foresight Initiatives
      Global Technology Outlook
      Academy of Technology
      First of a Kind (FOAK)
      Global Innovation Outlook
      InnovationJam
      Institute for Business Value
      Market Development & Insights
      HorizonWatch Community
      Academy of
      Technology
      (AoT)
      First
      of a Kind
      (FOAK)
      InnovationJam
      Institute for
      Business
      Value
      (IBV)
      Market Development & Insights
      (MDI)
      Community: Horizonwatch
    • 6
      The Global Technology Outlook is developed annually by IBM Research, which has 11 labs located in 9 countries
      Dublin
      China
      Zurich
      Tokyo
      Watson
      Haifa
      Almaden
      India
      Austin
      Melbourne
      Rio
      5 Nobel Laureates
      14 National Medals
      6 Turing Awards
      80 Members of National Academies
      11 Inductees, National Inventors Hall of Fame
      IBM Research Lab
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 7
      The Global Technology Outlook team solicits input from the wide diversity of disciplines at IBM Research
      Computer Science
      Behavioral Sciences
      Engineering
      Chemistry
      Improved human computer interaction
      sub-micron lithography
      Deep QA for Natural Language Processing (Watson)
      Nano-science and Nano-technology
      Mathematical Sciences
      Service Science, Management & Engineering
      Materials Science
      Physics
      Science & Engineering
      Business & Management
      BusinessInnovation
      TechnologyInnovation
      Social Innovation
      Demand Innovation
      Economics & Markets
      Social & CognitiveSciences
      protein folding
      Trackpoint for Thinkpad, Risk Management
      Organic Semiconductors
      Improve services-led economy
      http://www.research.ibm.com/areas.shtml
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 8
      Global
      Technology
      Outlook
      (GTO)
      IBM Research’s annual Global Technology Outlook identifies disruptive societal, technical and economic trends that might impact IBM and its clients
      Objective
      The GTO identifies significant technology trends early.
      It looks for high impact disruptive technologies leading to game changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon
      Disruptive technologies, potential new technologies, game changers
      Identify trends - - exponentials, thresholds, discontinuities, walls
      New technologies, new markets
      The GTO is used to drive technical initiatives in IBM Research and to jointly engage with IBM in formulating these initiatives
      About The Process
      It’s a process that takes the whole year and involves getting input from all IBM Industry and Business Unit Strategists, IBM Research employees, University researchers, partners, and suppliers
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 2011 GTO Topics – What does IBM Research think is going to be important in the future?
      http://www-05.ibm.com/ch/ibm_sap_portfolio/pdf/Global_Technology_Outlook_2011.pdf
      9
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • A sidebenefit of the GTO processisthe “5 in 5” series of foresightpredictionspublishedeveryyear
      10
      http://youtu.be/2m7ticc7jnE
      http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33304.wss
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • The Global Innovation Outlook focused more on broad issues impacting all types of organizations
      Global
      Innovation
      Outlook
      (GIO)
      Focused on broad and challenging topics – spanning geographies, generations, industries and interests
      Ran from 2004-09, picked 2-3 topics per year
      Surfaced insights and opportunities for business and societal innovation
      Open, collaborative, multi-disciplinary process with external business leaders, academics, researchers and policymakers
      Helped to launch IBM spin-off projects
      http://www.ibm.com/ibm/gio/us/en/index.html
      11
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 12
      The IBM Academy of Technology is a society of IBM technical leaders across all IBM Business Units
      Academy of
      Technology
      (AoT)
      Academy Mission
      Advance the understanding of key emerging technical areas,
      Improve development of IBM's global technical community,
      Engage clients in technical pursuits of mutual value.
      Sets the Technical Agenda via ‘Activities’
      Anyone in IBM’s technical community can start an Academy activity
      Currently, many activities are in areas such as:
      Smarter Planet
      Cloud Computing
      Business Analytics and Optimization
      What makes a good Academy activity?
      Stimulate, organize, synthesize and advance technical dialogue and innovation across business lines
      Understand the gaps and address the opportunities for innovation that occur at the intersections of units and technical disciplines,
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
      http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/academy/index.html
    • 13
      The First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) Program encourages collaboration of early adopter clients with IBM Research and Sales
      First
      of a Kind
      (FOAK)
      Pushes early thought leadership and experiences with new technologies
      Pilot experimental solutions & deliver working prototypes
      Validate market requirements
      Test market readiness
      250+ projects completed
      Recognized industry best practice
      Frost & Sullivan Certified Best Practice
      Innovation Passport: The IBM First-of-a-Kind Journey From Research to Reality
      FOAK accelerates the delivery of innovation from the research labs into the market
      http://www.research.ibm.com/FOAK/index.shtml
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 14
      InnovationJam: IBM’s online approach to large-scale collaborative brainstorming
      InnovationJam
      • Online collaborative discussions for focused audiences ranging in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands
      • Innovation events over a defined period of time to capture the pulse of the group or to solicit specific ideas to critical business or societal issues
      • Jam Hosts and facilitators guide participants to build on each other’s ideas – supporting a meaningful exchange of perspectives by a focused audience around a shared topic
      • Real-time text analysis and data mining to highlight emerging trends and distill actionable results
      https://www.collaborationjam.com/
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 15
      InnovationJam Example: Habitat Jam
      • The World Urban Forum (WUF) was established by the United Nations to examine rapid urbanization and its impact on cities, economies and policies
      • HabitatJam was the largest brainstorming event on urban sustainability bringing together not only NGOs, politicians and academia – but the slum dwellers whose lives were directly impacted by this body
      • Results: Over 30,000 participants from 158 countries generated 600+ ideas. 70 of these were presented and adopted at the WUF3 conference as its official platform
      "At the heart of the urban crisis is a failure to allow the full participation of ordinary people in the development of the city. It is my hope that innovative technologies associated with Habitat Jam will help bring people closer together to plan and develop truly human settlements.“ Mrs. Anna Tibaijuka, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of UN-HABITAT
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitat_Jam
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 16
      Institute for Business Value
      The IBM Institute for Business Value is global team of 50+ consultants who conduct research and analysis across multiple industries and functional disciplines
      Institute for
      Business
      Value
      (IBV)
      Sector / Industry Teams
      Business Function Teams
      • Strategy & Change
      • Customer Relationship Management
      • Financial Management
      • Human Capital Management
      • Supply Chain Management
      • Application Innovation
      http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 17
      Institute for Business Value
      IBV’s thought leadership provides an original, research-based point of view told from a client’s business perspective
      Institute for
      Business
      Value
      (IBV)
      Examples of Thought Leadership Studies
      “Future Agendas”
      CXO Surveys
      Example reports include the CEO Study, CHRO Study, CFO Study, and CIO Study
      3 to 10 year industry and/or functional area outlook with action oriented next steps
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • IBM Market Insight’s Strategic Perspectives Team accelerates the understanding of new or emerging markets, and act as a catalyst for future growth.
      Market Development & Insights
      (MDI)
      The IBM MI Strategic Perspectives Team provides the initial foresight and insight for new and emerging market opportunities and competitive threats.
      This includes providing a Market Insightsperspective
      Market Definition
      Potential Opportunity
      Drivers/Inhibitors
      Potential Segmentation
      Geographical Differences
      Competitive Intelligence
      ExampleReports
      • Future of Nuclear Energy ● Next Emerging Geographic Markets ●Consumer Product Goods in Rural China ●Climate Change/Energy & Environment ●Physical Infrastructure in Growth Markets ●Advanced Water Management ●Intelligent Buildings ●Smarter Cities ● 2015 Growth Strategy
      18
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • Market Insight’s Center for Applied Insights White Paper: “100 years of foresight: The importance of long-term thinking at IBM”
      19
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
      Market Development & Insights
      (MDI)
      “The practice of corporate foresight helps the enterprise avoid strategic surprise and reduce uncertainty in decision making. It allows the enterprise to think through the consequences of unanticipated change, envisioning what might be possible and deciding what would be preferable.”
      Authors:
      • David Jarvis, Senior Consultant, IBM Center for Applied Insights
      • Steve Rogers, Director, IBM Center for Applied Insight
      http://bit.ly/kdPG80
    • The HorizonWatch Community was formed in 2001 to bring together all IBMers interested in understanding the future(s).
      Community: Horizonwatch
      Demographics
      This is a cross-IBM community of 1900+ IBMers from all types of functions, divisions and geographies.
      Focus
      Emerging trends and technologies
      Conference calls
      Topics are presented to the community by subject matter experts
      Collaboration platforms
      Blog
      Discussion forums
      Bookmarks
      File sharing
      Wikis
      20
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 21
      Community Objective:
      Improve our collective ability to sense future disruptive technologies, business issues, trends and opportunities.
      Benefit of the Community:
      Diversity of the community means different perspectives, which enhances collaboration and sparks innovation.
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 22
      HorizonWatch: 150 Conference Calls Since 2001
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • Every year, an annual trends document is produced and presented to the community.
      23
      Community: Horizonwatch
      2011 Trends
      Private Clouds
      Virtualization
      Social Business
      Mobile Computing
      Storage Trends
      Advanced Business Analytics
      The Personalized Web
      Video-enabled Business Processes
      Service Oriented Architecture
      Sustainability & IT
      Risk Management
      Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • Other trend reports are produced and presented to the community.
      24
      Top Trends in Digital Marketing For 2011
      Marketing Budgets Continue to Shift Towards Online
      Social Media Marketing Is Maturing (Slowly)
      Mobile Marketing Poised To Take Off
      Personalized Marketing: Customize To Each Individual
      Social Video As A Marketing Tool Gains Momentum
      Search Engine Optimization Gets More Complex
      Marketing Analytics Helps Make Sense Of All The Noise
      Real Time Web Assistance Connects Buyer With Expert
      Online Privacy Concerns Continue
      Digital Marketing Optimization Emerges As A Priority
      Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching
      Blog Post: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For 2011 http://bit.ly/aHOY3P
      Slide Deck: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For 2011 http://slidesha.re/fYUCgp
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 25
      As A Market Insights Analyst, How Do I Approach Trends Research?
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 26
      In additional to traditional trend spotting, I leverage social media and communities….
      Scanning: Search to understand what people are talking about.
      Brainstorming: Two is better than one. Hundreds are better than two. Thousands are better than hundreds.
      Publishing: Posting content online helps establish my reach and authority
      Idea Development: Get feedback and improve my research
      Networking: Connect with other subject matter experts.
      Learning: Develop a better understanding of the potential future(s)
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • 27
      Sharing thought leadership content via a blog helps me develop my understanding of key trends and get feedback from readers
      A Primer on Smarter Water
      A Primer On Cloud Computing
      A Primer on Nanotechnology
      A Primer on Telepresence
      A Primer on Unified Communications
      A Primer on Futurists
      A Primer on 3D Printing
      A Primer on Scenario Planning
      A Primer on the Website Personalization Trend
      A Primer on the Consumer Market for Household Robots
      A Primer on the Trend Towards Video-enabled Business Processes
      A Primer on the Smart Grid and Intelligent Utility Network Trend
      A Primer On Water Management Issues
      A Primer on Advanced Business Analytics
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • Collaborate with me…I can be found at the following social sites…
      • LinkedIn = Bill Chamberlin
      • Thought Leadership Blog = Horizonwatching on Typepad
      • Signal/Scanning Blog = HorizonWatching on Tumblr
      • Twitter ID = Horizonwatching
      • Facebook = HorizonWatching
      • Online Newsletter = HorizonWatching
      • Slideshare IBM Expert Network = HorizonWatching
      • Google+ = Bill Chamberlin
      • LinkedIn Group = Horizonwatching
      • A Smarter Planet = Blog on Tumblr
      • The InfoBoom Community = Profile Page
      28
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      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
    • ThankYou
      29
      HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures