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Hotel InduSTRy Overview<br />Vail R. Brown<br />Vice President, <br />Global Sales & Marketing<br />
Agenda: 18 May 2011<br /><ul><li>  U.S. Hotel Performance
  Indiana Hotel Performance
 Indiana Markets & Beyond
 Outlook</li></li></ul><li>U.S. Hotel Performance<br />2011 – So far, so … blah<br />
ADR Finally Contributing to RevPAR Growth<br />% Change<br />Hotels 			52k		 <br />Room Supply		432 mm		 1.0%<br />Room De...
Demand Leads ADR….Swings Get More Extreme <br />1.6%<br />-0.2%<br />-0.9%<br />-4.6%<br />-4.7%<br />-6.9%<br />-8.7%<br ...
Absolute ADR Will Not Recover for At Least 2 Years<br />30 Months<br />-$10.60<br />41 Months<br />-$3.70<br />Total U.S.:...
Hopeful ADR growth will continue to drive RevPAR growth<br />2011 Total U.S. Outlook <br />
Indiana Overview<br />
State’s RevPAR driven by OCC & ADR…good thing.<br />%Change<br />Hotels			961				<br />Rooms			85,285<br />STR Sample			76...
Historically: Builds Into Downturns…<br />Indiana: Supply & Demand % ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average: Jan. 2001 – March ...
IF All Active Pipeline Opens…over 5.5% Room Supply Increase! <br />Indiana: Active Development PipelineMarch 2011<br />
OCC Growth is Back…ADR Growth much Slower!? <br />Indiana: OCC & ADR % ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average: Jan. 2001 – Marc...
ADR discounts not as extreme as U.S…BUT still takes time!<br />31 Months<br />-$4.81<br />Indiana:Actual ADR ($) <br />Twe...
Indiana Segments<br />Customer Segmentation:	<br /><ul><li> Transient – Third party, rack rate, government rate, etc.
Group – Rooms booked in blocks of 10 or more.</li></ul>Combine Chain Class:  Aggregate of branded hotels & independents.<b...
  UpperMidscale/Midscale/Economy</li></li></ul><li>   Transient Demand back since 1Q 2010…ADR Growth? <br />Indiana: Trans...
Group Demand & ADR Growth pretty in-sync…A good thing.<br />Indiana: Group Room Demand & ADR % ChangeBy Month: Jan. 2004 –...
2011 STR Chain SegmentsSelected Brands from each segment<br />Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont, InterContinen...
Appears to be a Top Down Recovery…<br />Indiana: Combine Chain Class<br />Demand % Change by Month through March 2011<br />
ADR Data is “Less Bad”…need consistent growth. <br />Indiana: Combine Chain Class<br />ADR % Change by Month through March...
Indiana Markets <br />& Beyond….<br />
Indy new room supply leader…<br />Indiana Markets: Room Supply % Change<br />12 Month Moving Average  Jan. 2002 – March 20...
Good News: Strong room demand across the board!<br />Indiana Markets: Room Demand % Change<br />12 Month Moving Average  J...
Indy highest OCC % but Gary MSA largest OCC Growth<br />0.9%<br />8.7%<br />2.3%<br />2.5%<br />3.3%<br />Indiana Markets ...
Strong ADR Growth for Evansville-Henderson MSA<br />3.6%<br />3.4%<br />4.2%<br />7.0%<br />2.1%<br />2.8%<br />Indiana Ma...
2012 Outlook<br />…What May Be<br />
Minimal Supply Growth in 2012<br />Total U.S.: Supply/Demand % Change2005 – 2012P<br />
2012: Hit RevPAR peaks of 2006 (hopefully!)<br />Total U.S. & Chain Scale: 2012 Outlook<br />
Occupancy hitting 60%+ Remains Elusive<br />Total U.S.: Annual Occupancy % <br />2005 – 2012P<br />
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STR: Hotel Industry Overview

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Transcript of "STR: Hotel Industry Overview"

  1. 1. Hotel InduSTRy Overview<br />Vail R. Brown<br />Vice President, <br />Global Sales & Marketing<br />
  2. 2. Agenda: 18 May 2011<br /><ul><li> U.S. Hotel Performance
  3. 3. Indiana Hotel Performance
  4. 4. Indiana Markets & Beyond
  5. 5. Outlook</li></li></ul><li>U.S. Hotel Performance<br />2011 – So far, so … blah<br />
  6. 6. ADR Finally Contributing to RevPAR Growth<br />% Change<br />Hotels 52k <br />Room Supply 432 mm 1.0%<br />Room Demand 237 mm 6.7%<br />Occupancy 54.9% 5.7%<br />A.D.R. $99 3.1%<br />RevPAR $55 9.0%<br />Room Revenue $23.6 bn 10.0%<br />Total U.S.: Key Statistics1st Quarter 2011<br />
  7. 7. Demand Leads ADR….Swings Get More Extreme <br />1.6%<br />-0.2%<br />-0.9%<br />-4.6%<br />-4.7%<br />-6.9%<br />-8.7%<br />Total U.S.: ADR & Demand % Change<br />Twelve Month Moving Average : Jan. 1989 – March 2011<br />
  8. 8. Absolute ADR Will Not Recover for At Least 2 Years<br />30 Months<br />-$10.60<br />41 Months<br />-$3.70<br />Total U.S.: Actual ADR<br />Twelve Month Moving Average: Jan. 2000 – March 2011<br />
  9. 9. Hopeful ADR growth will continue to drive RevPAR growth<br />2011 Total U.S. Outlook <br />
  10. 10. Indiana Overview<br />
  11. 11. State’s RevPAR driven by OCC & ADR…good thing.<br />%Change<br />Hotels 961 <br />Rooms 85,285<br />STR Sample 76.2%<br />Occupancy 46.5% 4.6%<br />ADR $76.42 3.4%<br />RevPAR $35.54 8.2%<br />Room Revenue $271.4M 9.9% <br />Indiana: Key Statistics 1st Quarter 2011<br />
  12. 12. Historically: Builds Into Downturns…<br />Indiana: Supply & Demand % ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average: Jan. 2001 – March 2011<br />
  13. 13. IF All Active Pipeline Opens…over 5.5% Room Supply Increase! <br />Indiana: Active Development PipelineMarch 2011<br />
  14. 14. OCC Growth is Back…ADR Growth much Slower!? <br />Indiana: OCC & ADR % ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average: Jan. 2001 – March 2011<br />
  15. 15. ADR discounts not as extreme as U.S…BUT still takes time!<br />31 Months<br />-$4.81<br />Indiana:Actual ADR ($) <br />Twelve Month Moving Average: Jan. 2001 – March 2011<br />
  16. 16. Indiana Segments<br />Customer Segmentation: <br /><ul><li> Transient – Third party, rack rate, government rate, etc.
  17. 17. Group – Rooms booked in blocks of 10 or more.</li></ul>Combine Chain Class: Aggregate of branded hotels & independents.<br /><ul><li> Luxury/Upper Upscale/Upscale
  18. 18. UpperMidscale/Midscale/Economy</li></li></ul><li> Transient Demand back since 1Q 2010…ADR Growth? <br />Indiana: Transient Room Demand & ADR % ChangeBy Month: Jan. 2004 – March 2011<br />
  19. 19. Group Demand & ADR Growth pretty in-sync…A good thing.<br />Indiana: Group Room Demand & ADR % ChangeBy Month: Jan. 2004 – March 2011<br />
  20. 20. 2011 STR Chain SegmentsSelected Brands from each segment<br />Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont, InterContinental<br />Upper Upscale – Hyatt, Embassy Suites, Hilton, Marriott<br />Upscale – Hyatt Place, Hilton Garden Inn, Courtyard, Hotel Indigo<br />Upper Midscale – Best Western PLUS/Premier, Hampton Inn, Fairfield Inn<br />Midscale – Best Western, Country Inn & Suites, La Quinta Inn, Sleep Inn<br />Economy – America’s Best Inn, Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn<br />
  21. 21. Appears to be a Top Down Recovery…<br />Indiana: Combine Chain Class<br />Demand % Change by Month through March 2011<br />
  22. 22. ADR Data is “Less Bad”…need consistent growth. <br />Indiana: Combine Chain Class<br />ADR % Change by Month through March 2011<br />
  23. 23. Indiana Markets <br />& Beyond….<br />
  24. 24. Indy new room supply leader…<br />Indiana Markets: Room Supply % Change<br />12 Month Moving Average Jan. 2002 – March 2011<br />
  25. 25. Good News: Strong room demand across the board!<br />Indiana Markets: Room Demand % Change<br />12 Month Moving Average Jan. 2002 – March 2011<br />
  26. 26. Indy highest OCC % but Gary MSA largest OCC Growth<br />0.9%<br />8.7%<br />2.3%<br />2.5%<br />3.3%<br />Indiana Markets & Sub-Markets: Occupancy & % Change1st Quarter 2011<br />
  27. 27. Strong ADR Growth for Evansville-Henderson MSA<br />3.6%<br />3.4%<br />4.2%<br />7.0%<br />2.1%<br />2.8%<br />Indiana Markets & Sub-Markets: Actual ADR & % Change1st Quarter 2011<br />
  28. 28. 2012 Outlook<br />…What May Be<br />
  29. 29. Minimal Supply Growth in 2012<br />Total U.S.: Supply/Demand % Change2005 – 2012P<br />
  30. 30. 2012: Hit RevPAR peaks of 2006 (hopefully!)<br />Total U.S. & Chain Scale: 2012 Outlook<br />
  31. 31. Occupancy hitting 60%+ Remains Elusive<br />Total U.S.: Annual Occupancy % <br />2005 – 2012P<br />
  32. 32. What If since 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year?<br />Total U.S.: Annual ADR <br />2000 – 2012P<br />Note: 2011 & 2012 CPI forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators<br />
  33. 33. Takeaways <br />New Hotel Supply Muted in ‘11 & ‘12<br />Demand Rebounds (Strongly)<br />ADR Growth Started Strong…Keep It Up!?<br />Indiana Transient Rate Growth Needed<br />
  34. 34. Thank you!<br />vail@str.com<br />For a copy of this presentation go to<br />www.hotelnewsnow.com<br />
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