Status of Hybrid Light Duty
          Vehicles in the U.S., Mid-
             Decade, 2000-2010
                          ...
EPA’s “Green” Top 10 Includes 5 Hybrid
     Powertrains, 3 Hybrid Models

Model                                  Displ Cyl...
Where Available, HEVs are “Greenest”
           within Size Class
                                         EPA Air   Green...
The Estimate of HEV Fuel Consumption Reduction (or
        The Latest Toyota HEV Powertrain Allows V8 Performance
Fuel a V...
Weight and Fuel Consumption Comparisons of HEV with
Non-HEV Model Depends on Who Does the Comparison
                     ...
Hybrid Technologies Vary
                                                Electric Motor/Generator   Battery
              ...
Hybrid Technologies Vary




Source: ORNL/TM-2004-181
                           7
Hybrids and diesels are expected to deliver
 Oak Ridge Analysts Predict A Mix of Hybrids Will
   both higher MPG and more ...
EPA Data Implies Higher HEV
MPG Gains than ORNL and CAR
                                                Electric Motor/   ...
“Constant Glider” MPG Gain Approximation for the in
 Multiple Argonne Analysts Have Estimated a 70% Gain ’04
Prius (mpg) f...
Toyota Has Recently Claimed the Allows V8 Performance
           The Latest Toyota HEV Powertrain Equivalent of > 67% l/km...
M. Duoba’s ANL Analysts Show a Sharp MPG
   Drop for the Prius When Driven “Hard”
                                     80 ...
The HEV “On-Road” vs. Official Rated Fuel
      Economy is Being Debated
                                             Owne...
H
                                                                                                         on
            ...
For 4WD, the Scant EPA Evidence Says the
   HEV Penalty is the Same as Gasoline
                     16                   ...
Oak Ridge Analysts full hybrids, “Full Hybrid” Will Capture
  Not all hybrids are
                      Predict the which ...
Though Entering Different Market Segments, Both Diesel
 and HEV Shares of the <10K GVW New Vehicle Market
     are Project...
Prius vs. Civic HEV Sales Imply the Complete
      Prius “Package” Attracts Buyers
                         160
          ...
Toyota Hybrid Powertrains Are Selling in Higher
Percentages of the Model and Brand than Honda or Ford

                 Hy...
Several Hybrids Were “On the
            Horizon” Before June
Manufacturer         Model                                Ty...
GM May Introduce “Dual Mode” “Full”
HEVs In Large Trucks First, Then DC
                                                  ...
As of June, Asian Companies Had Not
Announced HEVs in Their Big Trucks

Honda
 Insight (PC/LDT1)                        IM...
New Variable Incentives Have Been
Incorporated in 2005 EPACT


   Fuel cells
   Lean burn (diesel)
   Hybrids
   Alternati...
In EPACT 2005, New Fuel Cell and Lean Burn (Diesel)
  Incentives Have Been Created Requiring a Percent
  Increase vs. the ...
The Diesel Has Difficult Hurdles to Obtain
           Significant Credits
                     $3,000
                    ...
The IMA and Full HEVs Can Easily Increase
City MPG by > 30% and Exceed Emissions
      Requirements to Obtain Credit
     ...
Total Credits Are A Complex Combination of % Gains and Lifetime Fuel Savings


                       $3,500



          ...
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Status of Hybrid Light Duty Vehicles in the U.S., Mid-Decade ...

  1. 1. Status of Hybrid Light Duty Vehicles in the U.S., Mid- Decade, 2000-2010 By Danilo J. Santini Center for Transportation Research For presentation at the Annex I Experts Meeting, under the International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement for Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Technologies and Programs Rome Italy Oct. 5, 2005 Argonne National Laboratory is managed Work sponsored by by The University of Chicago [sponsor name for logo inserted above] for the U.S. Department of Energy
  2. 2. EPA’s “Green” Top 10 Includes 5 Hybrid Powertrains, 3 Hybrid Models Model Displ Cyl TOYOTA Prius 1.5 (4 cyl) HONDA Civic Hybrid 1.3 (4 cyl) HONDA Civic Hybrid 1.3 (4 cyl) FORD Escape HEV 2.3 (4 cyl) HONDA Civic (Compressed Natural Gas) 1.7 (4 cyl) FORD Escape HEV 2.3 (4 cyl) NISSAN Sentra 1.8 (4 cyl) NISSAN Sentra 1.8 (4 cyl) MAZDA 3 2 (4 cyl) FORD Focus 2 (4 cyl) 2
  3. 3. Where Available, HEVs are “Greenest” within Size Class EPA Air Greenhouse EPA Size Class Make and Model Score Score Cars Small Car Honda Civic Hybrid 9.5 10 Midsize Car Toyota Prius Hybrid 9.5 10 Station Wagon Ford Focus 9.5 7 Large car Toyota Avalon 7 6 Trucks SUV Ford Escape Hybrid 9.5 8 Minivan Honda Odyssey 7 6 Pickup Nissan Frontier 7 6 Large Van Ford E150 3 1 3
  4. 4. The Estimate of HEV Fuel Consumption Reduction (or The Latest Toyota HEV Powertrain Allows V8 Performance Fuel a Vehicle BodyGain) Depends on Basis of Comparison in Economy Designed for a Transverse Powertrain Configuration > 40% decline vs. gasoline 36% 4
  5. 5. Weight and Fuel Consumption Comparisons of HEV with Non-HEV Model Depends on Who Does the Comparison CO2 Weight of Weight Reduction* Weight of Base Hybrid Electric Vehicle Increase (Percent) Vehicle Vehicle (pounds) (Percent) [MPG (pounds) increase] 30.6 % Honda Civic (IMA) 2612 2684 2.7 % [44.1%] 23.7% Honda Accord (IMA) 3349 3501 4.5 % [31.1%] Ford Escape 3346 AWD 3792 AWD 13.3 % 36.7 % [58%] (Parallel – Series) Lexus 400H (Parallel 4065 AWD 4365 AWD 7.4 % 26.5 % [36%] – Series) Note: The Prius does not have a direct ‘non-hybrid’ version, is not included in comparisons. * CO2 reduction based on comparison of base model to HEV EPA ratings Center for Automotive Research Estimates, 2005 5
  6. 6. Hybrid Technologies Vary Electric Motor/Generator Battery Type Model (GEN) (Volts) Civic IMA 10kw 144 (V) Accord IMA 12kw 144 (V) Prius THS I (2000) Parallel – Series 33kw/10kw (Gen) 274 (V) Prius THS II (2004) Parallel – Series 49kw/10kw (Gen) 202 (V) Escape Parallel – Series 70kw/28kw (Gen) 330 (V) (AWD) Lexus 400h Parallel – Series Front: 123ks/109kw (Gen) 288 (V) (AWD) Rear: 50 kw Source: Company Literature Center for Automotive Research Comparison of Hybrid Electric Vehicles 6
  7. 7. Hybrid Technologies Vary Source: ORNL/TM-2004-181 7
  8. 8. Hybrids and diesels are expected to deliver Oak Ridge Analysts Predict A Mix of Hybrids Will both higher MPG and more torque. Enter the Market; Expect a Maximum 40% MPG Gain • Hybrids Torque MPG S/S 0% 7.5% ISAD 10% 12.5% IMA 15% 20% Full Lg. Trk. 15% 35% Full Car & Sm. 20% 40% Trk. Torque MPG • Diesels 2005 25% 35% 2008 25% 30% 2012 25% 33% Greene/ORNL/2005 8
  9. 9. EPA Data Implies Higher HEV MPG Gains than ORNL and CAR Electric Motor/ ~ mpg Generator Battery Battery gain Engine Model Type (GEN) (Volts) % Downsize? Civic Parallel (IMA) FWD 10kw 10 kW 144 (V) 23-47 Yes Accord Parallel (IMA) FWD 12kw 12 kW 144 (V) 20-35 + Intermittent Prius THS I (2000) Parallel/Series FWD 33kw/10kw (Gen) 20 kW 274 (V) ? Yes Prius THS II (2004) Parallel/Series FWD 49kw/10kw (Gen) 21 kW 202 (V) 70 est. Yes Escape Parallel/Series FWD 70kw/28kw (Gen) 330 (V) 46-56 Yes Escape Parallel/Series 4WD 70kw/28kw (Gen) 330 (V) 57-62 Yes Lexus 400h Parallel/Series 4WD Front:123kW/109k 45 kW 288 (V) No (Gen): Rear 50 kW 39 Toyota Highlander Parallel/Series 4WD Front:123kW/109k 45 kW 288 (V) No (Gen): Rear 50 kW 30-46 GM 5.3 L Pickups ISAD RWD 42V 9 No GM 5.3 L Pickups ISAD RWD 42V 10 No 9
  10. 10. “Constant Glider” MPG Gain Approximation for the in Multiple Argonne Analysts Have Estimated a 70% Gain ’04 Prius (mpg) for One YearPowertrain in a Prius Body, with l/km Showed the Prius Old Estimates Were Obsolete Prius-like Engine Power Levels, on Certification Tests • EEA estimates from 2002 70% study for California, ANL 60% for actual 2004 Prius 50% EEA • Lower drag and rolling 40% 150V resistance (than ’04 Prius) 30% EEA in the EEA cases 300V 20% • EEA estimates greater TMC/ANL 10% 500V increase in mass of HEV 0% • All are “mid-size” cars HEV MPG Gain Estimates 10
  11. 11. Toyota Has Recently Claimed the Allows V8 Performance The Latest Toyota HEV Powertrain Equivalent of > 67% l/km Gain in a Vehicle Body Designed for a Transverse Powertrain Configuration EU (>40% km/l cut) with the New RX400 Hybrid, in the > 40% decline vs. gasoline 36% 11
  12. 12. M. Duoba’s ANL Analysts Show a Sharp MPG Drop for the Prius When Driven “Hard” 80 Urban Drive Cycle Insight Prius 70 Echo Focus 60 Escape ! Fuel Economy [mpg] Jaguar 50 32% Drop 1.0 to 1.4 40 30 20 10 0 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Scaling Factor Investigating Vehicle Fuel Economy Robustness of Conventional and Hybrid Electric Vehicles. M. Duoba et al, Argonne National Laboratory, USA Presented 4/5/05 EVS-21 Monaco 12
  13. 13. The HEV “On-Road” vs. Official Rated Fuel Economy is Being Debated Owner reports from http://www.greenhybrid.com/compare/mileage/ Reported in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_car. 9/30/05 10.0 9.0 Liters per 100 Kilometers (U.S.) 8.0 U.S. Owner Reports EPA City Rating 7.0 EPA Highway Rating 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Honda Honda Toyota Honda Ford Lexus RX Insight Civic Prius Accord Escape On-road reported fuel economy (5-47 responses) vs. “window sticker” ratings, in l/100 km 13
  14. 14. H on d To Ac a C Liters/100 km yo cor ivic ta d 4 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 C 4 c Au Ac am yl A to c r N Sc ord y 4 uto is A To sa ion V6 uto yo n A XA A ta lti 4 uto C ma A To S oro 4 uto yo cio lla Au t n 4 to Fo a M XB Au rd at 4 to Fo rix Au cu 4 A to s u 4 to Au C to iv Ac ic c H Es ord EV ca H 1 pe EV H Rated C P EV iv r Reported ic iu H s EV % Difference 2 0% 5% -5% 10% 15% 20% -10% On-road percent difference On-Road Discount for FWD HEVs Data collected from http://www.fueleconomy.gov/ on Sept. 30 by D. Santini (5 reports minimum) EPA Evidence to Date Implies a Larger 14
  15. 15. For 4WD, the Scant EPA Evidence Says the HEV Penalty is the Same as Gasoline 16 16% Rated 14 Reported 14% % Difference 12 12% On-road percent change Liters/100 km 10 10% 8 8% 6 6% 4 4% 2 2% 0 0% Jeep Liberty Honda Pilot Equinox 4WD Escape 4WD 4 4WD 4 SUV 4WD V6 SUV V6 SUV Auto SUV HEV Diesel Auto Data collected from http://www.fueleconomy.gov/ on Sept. 30 by D. Santini (5 reports minimum) 15
  16. 16. Oak Ridge Analysts full hybrids, “Full Hybrid” Will Capture Not all hybrids are Predict the which increases hybrids’ the Largest Share of a Growing U.S. Hybrid Market in 2012 market share but decreases their fuel economy impact. Hybrid Vehicles by Degree of Hybridization: 2012 "Best Guess Scenario" (Total Hybrid Market Share = 14.9%) Stop-Start, 4.2% Not a hybrid by SAE and EPACT definitions Full Hybrid, 7.1% ISAD, 0.7% IMA, 2.9% Greene/ORNL/2005 16
  17. 17. Though Entering Different Market Segments, Both Diesel and HEV Shares of the <10K GVW New Vehicle Market are Projected to Expand Significantly by 2009 Center for Automotive Research Estimates, June 2005 17
  18. 18. Prius vs. Civic HEV Sales Imply the Complete Prius “Package” Attracts Buyers 160 Total 140 Note: 2005 sales = 2 x sales through June 120 Prius Annual Sales (1000s) 100 Civic 80 60 Escape 40 Accord 20 - Insight 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 YEAR 18
  19. 19. Toyota Hybrid Powertrains Are Selling in Higher Percentages of the Model and Brand than Honda or Ford Hybrids as Percentage of Model Sales August 2005 Model Hybrids Full model % Hybrids Toyota Highlander 2,925 13,042 22.4% Toyota Rx400h 2,607 9,644 27.0% Honda Civic 4,146 34,762 11.9% Honda Accord 2,336 46,153 5.1% Ford Escape 1,363 15,023 9.1% Hybrids as Percentage of Total LDV Sales August 2005 Hybrids Total % Hybrids Toyota 15,382 205,362 7.50% Honda 6,562 156,173 4.20% Ford 1,363 288,429 0.50% 19
  20. 20. Several Hybrids Were “On the Horizon” Before June Manufacturer Model Type ETA Dodge Ram Hybrid Full-size Pickup Later in 2005 Lexus RX 400h Mid-size SUV Just introduced Mercury Mariner Hybrid Mid-size SUV Later in 2005 Toyota Highlander Mid-size SUV June 2005 Saturn VUE SUV 2006 Nissan Altima Hybrid Mid-size Car 2006 Chevrolet Equinox SUV 2007 Chevrolet Malibu Mid-size Car 2007 Chevrolet Tahoe (AHS II) SUV 2007 GMC Yukon Hybrid (AHS II) SUV 2007 Mazda Tribute Hybrid SUV 2007 Chevrolet Silverado Hybrid (AHS II) Full-size Pickup 2008 Ford Fusion Mid-size Car 2008 GMC Sierra Hybrid (AHS II) Full-size Pickup 2008 Mercury Milan Hybrid Mid-size Car 2008 Sources: Fueleconomy.gov, J.D. Power-LMC; Energy & Environmental Analysis (EEA); manufacturer Web sites. 20
  21. 21. GM May Introduce “Dual Mode” “Full” HEVs In Large Trucks First, Then DC Date Manufacturer/Model (CARB Classification1) Type Available Daimler Chrysler Dodge Ram ‘Contractor Special’ (LDT2) ISG 2005 Dual Mode Hybrid Vehicles 2009-2010 – Resulting From Partnership With GM (PC/LDT1, Parallel – Series2 est. LDT2) Ford Ford Escape Hybrid (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2004 Mercury Mariner Hybrid (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2005 Mazda Tribute Hybrid (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2006 Ford Fusion Hybrid/Mercury Milan Hybrid Parallel – Series 2008 (PC/LDT1) General Motors GMC Sierra/Chevrolet Silverado Hybrid (LDT2) ISG 2004 Chevrolet Malibu (PC/LDT1) BAS 2006 Saturn Vue (PC/LDT1) BAS 2006 GMC Yukon/Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid (AHSII) Parallel – Series 2007 (LDT2 / MDPV) AHSII Hybrid Pickup (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2008 (est.) Dual Mode Hybrid Vehicles – Resulting from Parallel – Series 2009 (est.) partnership with DCX (PC/LDT1) 1 PC/LDT1: Passenger cars and light trucks 0 – 3750 LVW. LDT2: 3751 LVW – 8500GVW. MDPV: Passenger vehicles > 8500GVW. The pickup trucks may qualify as MDV’s (and thus avoid regulation) if used for commercial purposes; however CARB documents state that differentiating those pickups used for commercial and non-commercial purposes is impossible and believes that using 8500 as the cutoff will produce minimal error. Since the ISG pickups and future AHS II pickups have GVWs < 8500 they will be classified as LDT2s. Center for Automotive Research, June 2005 21
  22. 22. As of June, Asian Companies Had Not Announced HEVs in Their Big Trucks Honda Insight (PC/LDT1) IMA 1999 Civic (PC/LDT1) IMA 2002 Accord (PC/LDT1) IMA 2004 Nissan Altima (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006 Toyota Prius (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2000 Highlander (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2005 Camry(expected) (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006(est.) Corolla(expected) (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006 (est.) Sienna (expected) (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2007 (est.) Lexus 400h (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2005 Lexus GS 450 (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006 Center for Automotive Research, June 2005 22
  23. 23. New Variable Incentives Have Been Incorporated in 2005 EPACT Fuel cells Lean burn (diesel) Hybrids Alternative fuels (Implies flat $4000 for EVs) 23
  24. 24. In EPACT 2005, New Fuel Cell and Lean Burn (Diesel) Incentives Have Been Created Requiring a Percent Increase vs. the City Mpg Baselines Shown Below 25.0 50 45 Car l/100 km 20.0 Truck l/100 km 40 Car mpg 2002 reference mpg 2002 Liters/100 km 35 Truck mpg 15.0 30 25 10.0 20 15 5.0 10 5 0.0 0 0 0 00 50 00 50 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0 75 50 70 50 20 22 25 27 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 -1 -8 6 00 15 Inerita Weight Class Incentive baselines for FCVs and Diesels (lean burn) as defined in EPACT 2005 24
  25. 25. The Diesel Has Difficult Hurdles to Obtain Significant Credits $3,000 < 6000 lb, must meet Tier II, bin 5 $2,500 6000-8500, must meet Tier II, bin 8 Income Tax Credit $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- 25-50 50-75 75-100 100-125 125-150 150 & above Lean Burn (Diesel) Percent City MPG Increase over Reference Vehicle 25
  26. 26. The IMA and Full HEVs Can Easily Increase City MPG by > 30% and Exceed Emissions Requirements to Obtain Credit 50% 5000 < 6000 lb, must meet Tier II, bin 5 6000-8500, must meet Tier II, bin 8 Credit as Percent of Incremental Cost 40% 4000 Maximum Credit ($) 30% 3000 20% 2000 % of Incremental Cost 10% 1000 Maximum $ Amount 0% 0 30-40% 40-50% >50% Gain in City MPG over Comparable Vehicle 26
  27. 27. Total Credits Are A Complex Combination of % Gains and Lifetime Fuel Savings $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 Total Credit $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 175% 150% $0 125% 1500- 2000 100% 2250 2500 75% City MPG % Gain 1750 2750 3000 3500 4000 50% 4500 5000 25% 5500 6000 Inertia Weight Class 6500 7000- 8500 Light Truck “Credit Surface” 27

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