CO 2  Mitigation Technologies in the Transportation Sector Takeyoshi KATO Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (EC...
Contents <ul><li>Fuel economy and CO 2  reduction cost of  current vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel economy and CO 2  reduc...
Vehicle Type by Prime Mover <ul><li>Current Vehicle </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Internal Combustion Vehicle ( ICE ) </li></ul></...
Fuel Economy of Current Vehicles measured according to Japan 10.15 test mode 1 km/MJ (gasoline) = 82 gallon/mile = 2.87 L/...
Driving Range of Current Vehicles measured according to Japan 10.15 test mode
CO 2  Coefficient of Fuels (electricity: US generation mix, 1998) Sources:  1. Argonne National Laboratory, “GREET 1.5 - T...
CO 2  Emission of Current Vehicles (electricity: US generation mix, 1998)
Commercial Hybrid Vehicles (HEVs) Honda  (http://www.honda.co.jp) Toyota   (http://www.toyota.co.jp) Nissan   (http://www....
Reduction of CO 2  Emissions relative to same model with internal combustion engine
Calculation of CO 2  Reduction Cost <ul><li>Assumption </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Annual mileage = 15,000 km/yr </li></ul></ul>...
CO 2  Reduction Cost of Current Vehicles relative to same carline vehicle with internal combustion engine Toyota Crown: 56...
CO 2  Reduction Cost of  Future Power Plants with CO 2  Capture Relative to same type plant without CO 2  capture
Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCV) Mercedes Benz Fuel Cell Sprinter (2001) Ford Focus FCV (2001)  Honda FCX-V4 (2001) market in 2003...
Information available in “Program Analysis Methodology, Quality Metrics” Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT), U.S....
Fuel Economy and Cost of FCV in 2030  Estimated in Program Analysis Methodology by OTT/DOE DOE estimates DOE estimates Fue...
Price and CO 2  Emission of Hydrogen <ul><li>Production method </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Methane Reforming </li></ul></ul><ul>...
Estimate of Hydrogen Retail Price Source: The Environmental Assessment of Direct Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles - An analysis...
Estimates of CO 2  Coefficient Sources:  1. Argonne National Laboratory, “GREET 1.5 - Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model, Vol...
CO 2  Reduction Cost of FCV and HEV   (15,000 km/yr  in 2030) CO 2  emission CO 2  reduction cost relative to ICE vehicle ...
Discussion Problem in using test mode data for new type vehicles  because of different equipment from conventional ICE veh...
Comparison of Fuel Economy Between Actual Use and Test Mode  Source: http://auto.ascii24.com/auto24/e-nenpi/ranking/rankin...
Conclusions <ul><li>CO 2  reduction cost of commercial HEV 56 ~ 800 US$/ton-CO 2  (15,000 km/yr) </li></ul><ul><li>CO 2  r...
Outlook on Possible Future Work <ul><li>Cost and CO 2  emission of hydrogen production and distribution  </li></ul><ul><li...
IIASA’s CO2DB Database <ul><li>A tool for collecting and analyzing detailed data on carbon mitigation technologies </li></...
THS-M (Toyota Hybrid System Mild) with Crown source: http://global.toyota.com The THS-M, or &quot;mild hybrid,&quot; is a ...
THS-C (Toyota Hybrid System-CVT) with ESTIMA Hybrid source: http://global.toyota.com THS-C (Toyota Hybrid System-CVT) feat...
World Share of Vehicles Source: The society of motor manufacturers and Trader Ltd.(SMMT)
CO 2  Emission in Electricity Generation Source:  IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 1971-1998, 2000 Edit...
CO 2  Emission of Current Vehicles electricity generation mix :  Japan, 1998 (364 g-CO 2 /kWh) electricity generation mix ...
Calculation of CO 2  Reduction Cost C n  : annual cost of new type vehicle C c  : annual cost of conventional ICE vehicle ...
Price of Fuels in the U.S. (nationwide average retail price in 2000, US) Source: The Alternative Fuel Price Report, U.S.DOE
Gasoline Retail Price
Vehicle Cost of Current Vehicles
Evaluation of OTT/DOE’s Estimates *  : ref: Tsuchiya, Kobayashi, “Fuel Cell Cost Study by Learning Curve”, IEW, 2002 **  :...
Difference of Annual Cost from ICE (15,000 km/yr  in 2030) HEV 2x FCV
CO 2  Reduction Cost of FCV and HEV   (in initial year and 2030) HEV 2x FCV
CO 2  Reduction Cost Relative to ICE (5,000 ~ 30,000 km/yr  in 2030)
Annual Cost with Carbon Tax Large passenger cars, 2030 15,000 km/yr 30,000 km/yr
Fuel Economy of Large Passenger Cars   Estimated in Program Analysis Methodology by OTT/DOE estimates by OTT/DOE
CO 2  Emission per kilometer Large passenger cars, 2030 CO 2  emission per km Reduction of CO 2  per km relative to ICE (C...
Hydrogen Production Cost
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  1. 1. CO 2 Mitigation Technologies in the Transportation Sector Takeyoshi KATO Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax: (+43 2236) 71 313 Web: www.iiasa.ac.at Annual IEW Meeting 18-20 June 2002 at Stanford University, USA
  2. 2. Contents <ul><li>Fuel economy and CO 2 reduction cost of current vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel economy and CO 2 reduction cost of future vehicles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recent progress on prototype fuel-cell vehicles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Estimates by the Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT), U.S. DOE </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Discussion </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Difference of fuel economy between test mode and actual use </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul><ul><li>Outlook on possible future work </li></ul>
  3. 3. Vehicle Type by Prime Mover <ul><li>Current Vehicle </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Internal Combustion Vehicle ( ICE ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electric Vehicle ( EV ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Alternative Fuel Vehicle ( AFV ) CNG, E85, M85, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hybrid Electric Vehicle ( HEV ) Toyota Prius, Honda Insight, Honda Civic, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Future Vehicle </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fuel Cell Vehicle ( FCV ) => commercial in 2003 (?) </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Fuel Economy of Current Vehicles measured according to Japan 10.15 test mode 1 km/MJ (gasoline) = 82 gallon/mile = 2.87 L/100km = 34.8 km/L
  5. 5. Driving Range of Current Vehicles measured according to Japan 10.15 test mode
  6. 6. CO 2 Coefficient of Fuels (electricity: US generation mix, 1998) Sources: 1. Argonne National Laboratory, “GREET 1.5 - Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model, Volume 1: Methodology, Development, Use, and Results”, 1999 2. IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 1971-1998, 2000 Edition, OECD, 2000 1 1 1 1 1 2
  7. 7. CO 2 Emission of Current Vehicles (electricity: US generation mix, 1998)
  8. 8. Commercial Hybrid Vehicles (HEVs) Honda (http://www.honda.co.jp) Toyota (http://www.toyota.co.jp) Nissan (http://www.nissan.co.jp) Insight (1999) Tino (1999) Civic (2001) Prius (1997, 2001) Estima (2001) Crown (2001)
  9. 9. Reduction of CO 2 Emissions relative to same model with internal combustion engine
  10. 10. Calculation of CO 2 Reduction Cost <ul><li>Assumption </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Annual mileage = 15,000 km/yr </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Annualization factor = 10 %/yr </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fuel price in the U.S. in 2000 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maintenance cost is not considered </li></ul></ul>(same between ICE and other vehicles) CO 2 reduction cost = [US$/ton] increase of annual cost reduction of annual CO 2 emission
  11. 11. CO 2 Reduction Cost of Current Vehicles relative to same carline vehicle with internal combustion engine Toyota Crown: 56 Honda Civic: 662 Nissan Tino: 802 Toyota Estima: 111
  12. 12. CO 2 Reduction Cost of Future Power Plants with CO 2 Capture Relative to same type plant without CO 2 capture
  13. 13. Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCV) Mercedes Benz Fuel Cell Sprinter (2001) Ford Focus FCV (2001) Honda FCX-V4 (2001) market in 2003 Toyota FCHV-4 (2001) market in 2003, (80,000 US$) Volkswagen Bora (2002)
  14. 14. Information available in “Program Analysis Methodology, Quality Metrics” Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT), U.S. DOE <ul><li>Vehicle Type (light-duty passenger cars) Large Car, Small Car, Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV), Minivan, Pickup Truck </li></ul><ul><li>Prime Mover Internal Combustion Engine ( ICE ), Advanced Diesel ( A-diesel ), Flex Alcohol ( Flex ) Fuel Cell – Hydrogen ( FC-H 2 ), Fuel Cell – Gasoline ( FC-gasoline ) Spark Ignition Direct Injection ( SIDI ), Electric vehicle ( EV ) Hybrid Electric Vehicle – 2x fuel economy ( HEV 2x ) and 3x fuel economy ( HEV 3x ) </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle Cost </li></ul><ul><li>Maintenance Cost </li></ul><ul><li>Status Year (initial [2000~2017] and 2030) </li></ul>
  15. 15. Fuel Economy and Cost of FCV in 2030 Estimated in Program Analysis Methodology by OTT/DOE DOE estimates DOE estimates Fuel Economy Vehicle cost
  16. 16. Price and CO 2 Emission of Hydrogen <ul><li>Production method </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Methane Reforming </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gasification (Biomass, Coal, MSW) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electrolysis (Alkaline, PEM) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar Energy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Location </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Central or Distributed station </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>On-board </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Transportation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pipeline or Truck </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Estimate of Hydrogen Retail Price Source: The Environmental Assessment of Direct Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles - An analysis of the literature (draft), Edgar Hertwich and Anders Stroemman (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) 12.8 US$/GJ
  18. 18. Estimates of CO 2 Coefficient Sources: 1. Argonne National Laboratory, “GREET 1.5 - Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model, Volume 1: Methodology, Development, Use, and Results”, 1999 2. IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 1971-1998, 2000 Edition, OECD, 2000 3. Norwegian University of Science and Technology,”The Environmental Assessment of Direct Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles - An analysis of the literature (draft), 2002 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3
  19. 19. CO 2 Reduction Cost of FCV and HEV (15,000 km/yr in 2030) CO 2 emission CO 2 reduction cost relative to ICE vehicle Source: “Program Analysis Methodology, Quality Metrics”, Office of Transportation Technologies, U.S. DOE
  20. 20. Discussion Problem in using test mode data for new type vehicles because of different equipment from conventional ICE vehicle <ul><li>For example, in case of HEV and EV </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Battery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>discharge during long time stop or no use </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regenerative braking system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>additional factor for fuel economy </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>recoverable kinetic energy depends on actual driving pattern </li></ul></ul></ul>
  21. 21. Comparison of Fuel Economy Between Actual Use and Test Mode Source: http://auto.ascii24.com/auto24/e-nenpi/ranking/ranking_index.html
  22. 22. Conclusions <ul><li>CO 2 reduction cost of commercial HEV 56 ~ 800 US$/ton-CO 2 (15,000 km/yr) </li></ul><ul><li>CO 2 reduction potential of FCV is higher than HEV </li></ul><ul><li>HEV might be more cost effective for CO 2 reduction than FCV in the medium run (2030) </li></ul><ul><li>CO 2 reduction cost of vehicles could be smaller in large vehicles (SUV, Minivan) </li></ul><ul><li>CO 2 reduction cost of future vehicles might be comparable to that of central power plant with CO 2 capture technology (20 ~ 120 US$/ton-CO 2 ) </li></ul>
  23. 23. Outlook on Possible Future Work <ul><li>Cost and CO 2 emission of hydrogen production and distribution </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluation of fuel economy in actual vehicle use </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluation for other regions in the world (CO 2 emission of electricity, fuel cost, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment by using a global energy model </li></ul>
  24. 24. IIASA’s CO2DB Database <ul><li>A tool for collecting and analyzing detailed data on carbon mitigation technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Containing detailed technical, economic and environmental characteristics as well as data on innovation, commercialization and diffusion in some 2400 entries </li></ul>
  25. 25. THS-M (Toyota Hybrid System Mild) with Crown source: http://global.toyota.com The THS-M, or &quot;mild hybrid,&quot; is a simpler and less expensive alternative to our full-fledged THS. A motor/generator is connected to the engine's drive shaft via a belt and an electromagnetic clutch. While stationary, the engine shuts off and the electric motor runs the air conditioner and other accessories. It also powers the vehicle during startup. The engine propels the vehicle under normal driving conditions, while the motor generates electricity to top off its battery. It also utilizes the vehicle's kinetic energy to charge the battery during deceleration and braking. This economical system improves fuel efficiency by as much as 15% over a conventional power train.
  26. 26. THS-C (Toyota Hybrid System-CVT) with ESTIMA Hybrid source: http://global.toyota.com THS-C (Toyota Hybrid System-CVT) features a gasoline engine, electric motor and CVT for front-wheel power, and is designed for larger cars and minivans. The most distinctive features of the Estima Hybrid relative to the Prius are the addition of an E-Four or rear-mounted, rear-wheel-propelling electric motor, which regulates itself and also coordinates electric power distribution to all four wheels, providing added kick during hard acceleration, and electronic 4-wheel drive for improved traction on slippery surfaces. THS-C and E-Four, together with ECB (Electrically Controlled Brake system), which provides efficient wheel-by-wheel brake control and optimum management of the vehicle’s regenerative brake system, give the Estima hybrid double the fuel efficiency required under Japanese government standards for 2010.
  27. 27. World Share of Vehicles Source: The society of motor manufacturers and Trader Ltd.(SMMT)
  28. 28. CO 2 Emission in Electricity Generation Source: IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 1971-1998, 2000 Edition, OECD, 2000
  29. 29. CO 2 Emission of Current Vehicles electricity generation mix : Japan, 1998 (364 g-CO 2 /kWh) electricity generation mix : Japan, 1998 (91 g-CO 2 /kWh)
  30. 30. Calculation of CO 2 Reduction Cost C n : annual cost of new type vehicle C c : annual cost of conventional ICE vehicle C v : vehicle cost [US$] C m : maintenance cost [US$/yr] C f : fuel cost [US$/yr] E n : annual CO 2 emission of new type vehicle E c : annual CO 2 emission of conventional ICE vehicle LT : lifetime (simple pay-back time) CO 2 reduction cost = [US$/ton] C = C v /LT + C m + C f [$/year] C n – C c E c – E n
  31. 31. Price of Fuels in the U.S. (nationwide average retail price in 2000, US) Source: The Alternative Fuel Price Report, U.S.DOE
  32. 32. Gasoline Retail Price
  33. 33. Vehicle Cost of Current Vehicles
  34. 34. Evaluation of OTT/DOE’s Estimates * : ref: Tsuchiya, Kobayashi, “Fuel Cell Cost Study by Learning Curve”, IEW, 2002 ** : cost of ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) ***: assumed in this presentation 20,700 (72%) 40*** 100 40 28,700 (2000US$) 2030 SUV OTT/DOE, ICE (Conv.) 120** 90 100 100 power of PEFC c (kW) --- 886*** 40*** 124*** cost of motor, battery, etc. d ($/kW) 10,400 (76%) -79,480 (---) 27,900 (78%) 13,200 (35%) other cost e=a-(b+d)*c (US$) 2002 2003 2030 2012 year 40** 886* 40 124* cost of PEFC b ($/kW) vehicle Price a vehicle type 20,000 (2002US$) SUV Toyota, Kluger (base model of FCHV) 80,000 (2003US$) SUV Toyota, FCHV 35,900 (2000US$) SUV OTT/DOE, FCV-H2 38,00 (2000US$) SUV OTT/DOE, FCV-H2
  35. 35. Difference of Annual Cost from ICE (15,000 km/yr in 2030) HEV 2x FCV
  36. 36. CO 2 Reduction Cost of FCV and HEV (in initial year and 2030) HEV 2x FCV
  37. 37. CO 2 Reduction Cost Relative to ICE (5,000 ~ 30,000 km/yr in 2030)
  38. 38. Annual Cost with Carbon Tax Large passenger cars, 2030 15,000 km/yr 30,000 km/yr
  39. 39. Fuel Economy of Large Passenger Cars Estimated in Program Analysis Methodology by OTT/DOE estimates by OTT/DOE
  40. 40. CO 2 Emission per kilometer Large passenger cars, 2030 CO 2 emission per km Reduction of CO 2 per km relative to ICE (Conv.)
  41. 41. Hydrogen Production Cost
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