N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview
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N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

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  • 1. Market Update November 2006
  • 2. Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 06 06 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 GDP CPI CPI less Food and Energy Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 3. -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Q1 '00 Q2 '00 Q3 '00 Q4 '00 Q1 '01 Q2 '01 GDP Q3 '01 Q4 '01 Q1 '02 Q2 '02 Q3 '02 CPI Q4 '02 Q1 '03 Q2 '03 Q3 '03 Q4 '03 Q1 '04 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics Q2 '04 Q3 '04 Q4 '04 Q1 '05 Quarterly GDP and CPI Q2 '05 Q3 '05 Q4 '05 CPI less Food and Energy Q1 '06 Q2 '06 Q3 '06 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% -2%
  • 4. Prime Rate 10% 9% 8.25% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 0 1 2 3 4 5 nt 00 00 00 00 00 00 rre /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 Cu /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 12 12 12 12 12 12 Source: Federal Reserve Board
  • 5. Average Hourly Earnings of Production Workers $17.75 0.70% $17.25 $16.91 0.60% $16.75 0.50% $16.25 $15.75 0.40% $15.25 0.30% $14.75 $14.25 0.20% $13.75 0.10% $13.25 0.00% $12.75 $12.25 -0.10% 10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September 10/06 2006 Average Hourly 1 month % change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 6. Changes in Non-Farm Payroll Employment 600 (000’s) 400 200 92,000 0 10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September 10/06 2006 -200 -400 -600 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 7. Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September 10/06 2006 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 8. Average Unemployment and New Light Vehicle Sales 6.5% 18,000 (000’s) NADA’s estimate for 6.0% CY 2006 5.5% 5.0% 16,000 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 14,000 6 00 01 02 03 04 05 00 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 erb to Oc Unemployment NLVS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Automotive News, and NADA Industry Analysis
  • 9. Consumer Price Index and Y-O-Y Wage Growth 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 6 00 01 02 03 04 05 00 20 20 20 20 20 20 r2 be em pt Se CPI Wage Growth* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - *Average Hourly Earnings of Production Workers
  • 10. Retail Gasoline and On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices $3.50 *Price of gas peaked at $3.069 $3.10 $2.70 $2.30 $1.90 $1.50 Gas $2.20 $1.10 Diesel $2.506 $0.70 k 5 00 01 02 03 04 05 6 ee 00 00 5/ 1/ 0/ 9/ 7/ 6/ W ,2 ,2 /2 /3 /3 /2 /2 /2 st 5 r6 12 12 12 12 12 12 La t. be ep m *S ve No Gas Diesel Source: Energy Information Administration Gas - regular grade, price per gallon (includes all taxes)
  • 11. New Vehicle Market
  • 12. What’s New on Wheels Salzburg, Austria—Emily Post herself is not as refined as Lexus’s all-new, fourth-generation LS 460, in showrooms this month. The leather steering wheel is buffed for six hours, and the headlights— inspired by Baccarat stemware—evoke lead crystal. Then there’s the massaging/reclining rear seat, 19-speaker Mark Levinson audio, power sunshades, and up to 11 airbags. A parking-guidance system even steers the car into place, using a rear camera and sonar. Under the hood, a 380-hp V8—with 30 percent more gusto than its predecessor—is mated to the world’s first eight-speed automatic. Along with base and long-wheelbase models, a hybrid arrives next spring. Price: $70,000 (est.). Mileage: 19 city/ 27 highway. Competition: Audi A8, BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S-Class.
  • 13. What’s New on Wheels Washington, D.C.—Hipper inside and out, Saturn’s new Aura is built on the same platform as the Saab 9-3. The result: Euro-like ride and handling. Two trim levels, with choice of V6 engines. Options: heated seats/mirrors, steering-wheel audio controls, and remote-start system. Price: $20,000. Mileage: 20 city/29 highway. Competition: Honda Accord, Hyundai Sonata, Nissan Altima, Toyota Camry.
  • 14. Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle Sales 1,825 (000’s) 1.8m - all-time high 1,625 1,425 1,225 1,025 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 Source: Automotive News Data Center
  • 15. Y-O-Y Volume % Change October 2006 YTD Truck-based SUVs Pickups MiniVans/Vans Luxury Cars Middle Cars Large Cars Small Cars CUVs -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports
  • 16. Y-O-Y Market Share % October 2006 YTD Large Cars Luxury Cars 2006 MiniVans/Vans 2005 Truck-based SUVs CUVs Small Cars Pickups Middle Cars 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports
  • 17. New Light Vehicle Sales October 2006 YTD Car and truck sales -2.9% versus same time period 2005 Trucks represented 50.5% of total sales versus 53.0% same time period 2005 Toyota Division and Honda Division gained both car and truck market share Source: Automotive News Data Center
  • 18. New Light Vehicle Sales October 2006 YTD Top five car market share gainers – Toyota Division, Ford Division, Lexus, Volkswagen Division, and Scion Top five truck market share gainers – Toyota Division, Honda Division, Mercedes- Benz, Pontiac, and Kia Source: Automotive News Data Center
  • 19. Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle Sales October 1,600 (000’s) 1,200 Cars -3.5% Cars Trucks 16.3% Total 6.1% 800 Trucks Total 400 0 October 2006 October 2005 Source: Automotive News Data Center
  • 20. Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle Sales October YTD 15,000 (000’s) 11,250 Cars 2.2% Trucks -7.4% Total -2.9% Cars 7,500 Trucks Total 3,750 0 October 2006 YTD October 2005 YTD Source: Automotive News Data Center
  • 21. Top Ten Selling Makes (New) October 2006 YTD 2400 (000’s) Ford Division Chevrolet Toyota Division 1800 73.5% of total sales Honda Division Dodge 1200 Nissan Division Chrysler Division 600 Hyundai Division GMC Jeep 0 Source: Automotive News Data Center
  • 22. Top Ten Selling Models (New) October 2006 YTD 800 (000’s) F-Series PU Silverado PU Camry 600 23.8% of total sales Ram PU Accord 400 Civic Impala 200 Corolla Altima Cobalt 0 Source: Automotive News Data Center
  • 23. Total New Light Vehicle Sales 18,000 (000’s) 17.4m – all-time high 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 NADA's est. 2006 Source: Automotive News Data Center
  • 24. New Light Vehicle Sales Cars v. Trucks 10,000 (000’s) Trucks Outsell Cars 8,000 Cars Trucks 6,000 4,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 October 2006 YTD Source: Automotive News Data Center
  • 25. Franchised Dealer Light Vehicle Average Selling Price (New) $30,000 $28,123 $28,000 $26,000 $24,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 August 2006 Source: NADA Industry Analysis
  • 26. Average Finance Rate and Loan Length at Auto Finance Companies 8.5% 66 months 7.5% 63 6.5% 60 5.5% 57 4.5% 54 3.5% 51 2.5% 48 6 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 00 00 01 02 03 04 05 r2 be em pt Se Average Finance Rate Average Loan Length Source: NADA Industry Analysis and Federal Reserve Board
  • 27. Used Vehicle Market
  • 28. Y-O-Y Used Vehicles Sold by Franchised and Independent Dealers 3,800 (000’s) 3,175 2,550 1,925 1,300 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 Source: CNW Marketing
  • 29. Franchised Dealer Light Vehicle Average Selling Price (Used) $17,000 $16,000 $15,514 $15,000 $14,000 $13,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 August 2006 Source: NADA Industry Analysis
  • 30. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline November 2006 YTD- 1 Year Old Vehicles 0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU -5% Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU -10% Focus Taurus Expedition -15% Explorer F150 PU -20% Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry -25% Accord Median -11.02% YTD, CY 2005 -7.94% 4Runner -30% LeSabre Corolla -35% Mustang Eastern Edition
  • 31. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline 1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2005 0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU -5% Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU -10% Focus Taurus Expedition -15% Explorer F150 PU -20% Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry -25% Accord 4Runner -30% LeSabre Corolla -35% Mustang Eastern Edition
  • 32. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline 1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2004 0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU -5% Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU -10% Focus Taurus Expedition -15% Explorer F150 PU -20% Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry -25% Accord 4Runner -30% LeSabre Corolla -35% Mustang Eastern Edition
  • 33. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline 1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2003 0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU -5% Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU -10% Escort Taurus Expedition -15% Explorer F150 PU -20% Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry -25% Accord 4Runner -30% LeSabre Corolla -35% Mustang Eastern Edition
  • 34. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline November 2006 YTD - 2 Year Old Vehicles 0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU -5% Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus -10% Taurus Expedition -15% Explorer F150 PU -20% Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry -25% Median -11.30% YTD, CY 2005 -7.69% Accord 4Runner -30% LeSabre Corolla -35% Mustang Eastern Edition
  • 35. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline 2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2005 0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU -5% Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus -10% Taurus Expedition -15% Explorer F150 PU -20% Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry -25% Accord 4Runner -30% LeSabre Corolla -35% Mustang Eastern Edition
  • 36. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline 2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2004 0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU -5% Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU -10% Escort Taurus Expedition -15% Explorer F150 PU -20% Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry -25% Accord 4Runner -30% LeSabre Corolla Mustang -35% Eastern Edition
  • 37. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline 2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2003 0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU -5% Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU -10% Escort Taurus Expedition -15% Explorer F150 PU -20% Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry -25% Accord 4Runner -30% LeSabre Corolla Mustang -35% Eastern Edition
  • 38. Certified Used Vehicle Sales September 2006 YTD 250,000 187,500 Total Sales – 1,256,559 125,000 62,500 0 Chevrolet Toyota Division Honda Division Ford Division BMW Pontiac Dodge Nissan Division Mercedes-Benz GMC Lexus Buick Cadillac Chrysler Division Volkswagen Division Acura Volvo Jeep Lincoln - Mercury Audi Saturn Jaguar Saab Land Rover Porsche Mazda* Oldsmobile Subaru* Infiniti Mitsubishi Hummer Suzuki Hyundai* Source: Automotive News Data Center *Estimate
  • 39. Used Vehicles Sold by Franchised New-Car Dealers 26,000 (000’s) 21.3 22,000 Wholesaled 18,000 Retailed 14,000 Total 10,000 6,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: NADA Industry Analysis
  • 40. Franchised New-Car Dealer Source of Used Vehicle Retailed 70% 60% 50% Trade-In Auction 40% Street 30% Other 20% 10% 0% 1995 2005 Source: NADA Industry Analysis
  • 41. Light Vehicle Sales Used / New 50,000 (000’s) 44.1 45,000 40,000 Franchised Dealers 35,000 Independent 30,000 Dealers 25,000 Private Individuals 20,000 Total Used 15,000 10,000 New Vehicles 5,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 October 2006 YTD Source: CNW Marketing
  • 42. Data Sources www.autoexecmag.com www.autonews.com www.bea.gov www.bls.gov www.cnwmr.com www.eia.doe.gov www.federalreserve.gov www.nada.org www.nada.com/b2b www.wardsauto.com
  • 43. Your feedback welcomed at editor@nada.org