What Does the Future Hold for Advanced Technologies? John German American Honda Motor Co., Inc. Advanced Powertrain Forum ...
3 Issues for the Future Automobile: Energy Supply & Demand Sustainability Urban Air Quality Climate Change
Transportation’s Social Issues Climate Change Key Issues Air Pollution Energy Sustainability Social Concerns
Honda is Committed to Clean and Efficient Gasoline Vehicles <ul><li>Technically advanced F.E. leading models in the market...
Honda’s Environmental Leadership 1975 Civic CVCC 1 st  to meet ’70’s Clean Air Act, without a catalyst 1986 Civic CRX-HF  ...
Honda’s Power Train Roadmap 2010 1990 2000 i-VTEC 2020 Improvement of ICE C V T VTEC-E FCV Accord  I M A Alternative Fuel ...
Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future <ul><li>Future Building Block   </li></ul><ul><li>LEV, ULEV, SULEV Leadership </li>...
Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future <ul><li>Combines BEV with ULEV </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure is perfect </li></u...
Honda’s Future Dream <ul><li>Built on Core Honda Technologies: </li></ul><ul><li>EV and HEV vehicle know-how </li></ul><ul...
Conventional Technology
Honda VTEC Combustion: ‘ 91 ‘ 95 ‘ 03 50% Application % <ul><li>HIGHER EFFICIENCY </li></ul><ul><li>LOWER EMISSIONS </li><...
Vehicle speed Cruise Decel Accel 6 Cylinder operation 3 Cylinder operation Variable Cylinder Management
Honda Announced Improvements <ul><li>2006 Civic VTEC </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Delays intake valve closure timing during cruis...
Transmission Advances <ul><li>Dual-clutch automated manual </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Smooth shifting and potentially cheaper <...
Incremental FE Technology <ul><li>Engine technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High specific output  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
Worldwide Fuel Control <ul><li>On a systems basis, good fuel is needed to enable many technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Growi...
Diesels
Comparison Between U.S. & Europe Source:  US Department of Energy Report, October 2003; Association of European Automobile...
<ul><li>Diesels good for towing and highway efficiency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But hybrids get better fuel economy in city d...
Hybrids
Electric Motor Intelligent  Power  Unit (IPU) Hybrid Vehicles CVT Efficient  hybrid  engine Civic Hybrid
Integrated Motor Assist Hybrid  Transmission Motor / Generator Engine Battery Inverter Parallel - Type <ul><li>Relatively ...
Honda HEV Technology Evolution <ul><li>Fuel Economy No.1 </li></ul>&quot; World Best Efficiency” <ul><li>Hybrid vehicle fo...
Powerplant <ul><li>Parallel-Type Hybrid System </li></ul><ul><li>Simple, Lightweight & Compact </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient...
Engine and Motor Output Characteristics High Efficiency, High Torque Electric Motor CIVIC HYBRID (1.3L Engine only)
Attractive Hybrid Features Integrated  Electric Motor Low Operating Cost: Best “Idle” Quality: Superior Driving Range: Pri...
Alternative Fuels
Honda’s Advanced CNG Technology <ul><li>Civic GX Values </li></ul><ul><li>Range > 200 miles  </li></ul><ul><li>CO 2  reduc...
Infrastructure Innovations NGVs Fleet Forklifts Private Fleet Refueling Home Refueling Fleet & Consumer Public Fast Fill I...
FCX-V2 FCX-V3 Improved performance and reliability Evolves to the next generation Compact Excellent performance  Superb du...
Output density of Honda FC stack Compact  High output
FCX Equipped with Honda Fuel Cell STACK Spring 04 confirmation in California, and fall 04 in New York Japan testing starte...
Home Energy Station Reformated Gas Home Refueling with Co-generation Heat Electricity Hydrogen Natural gas Reform Fuel cel...
Fuel Cells:  The Holy Grail <ul><li>Advantages: </li></ul><ul><li>Very high fuel conversion efficiencies </li></ul><ul><ul...
System Comparison
Comparison of CO 2  Emissions Renewable Energy Oil  Base Natural Gas  Base CO 2  emissions [g/km] Tank to Wheels  Well to ...
Current Evaluation of  Power Plant Technologies :  Excellent  :  Good :  Marginal : No contribution or not acceptable H 2 ...
Development History of Honda Hybrids 00 Insight 03 Civic IMA 05 Accord IMA 06 Civic IMA 60 mm thick, 10kW   NiMH, 144v, 35...
Hybrid Synergies <ul><li>More efficient electric pumps and compressors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Beltless engine </li></ul></u...
Potential Operating Modes CAI – Controlled Auto Ignition Assumes camless valve actuation and e-turbo Atkinson  cycle Otto ...
Consumer Features <ul><li>Plenty of electric power to do anything  </li></ul><ul><li>On-board electric generator </li></ul...
Mid-Term Evaluation of  Hybrids vs. Diesels :  Excellent  :  Good :  Marginal : No contribution or not acceptable Gasoline...
Technology Conclusions <ul><li>Challenge is customer’s low value of fuel economy  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Real cost of drivi...
 
Barriers to Achieving Potential Fuel Economy Increases in Cars and Light Trucks <ul><li>Tradeoff with other attributes </l...
CAFE History Historical combined car and light truck CAFE  <ul><li>Since 1987: </li></ul><ul><li>Car CAFE up 0.9 mpg, ligh...
Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - Cars Car Data from EPA’s 2003 FE Trends Report Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.5%...
Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - LDT Light Truck Data from EPA’s 2003 FE Trends Report Fuel efficiency has increased by abo...
Real Gasoline Price June 2004
Fleet Fuel Economy
Gasoline Cost per Mile
Real Fuel Cost - % of Disposable Income Per Capita Disposable Income from BEA, Table 2.1, Personal Income and It's Disposi...
Willingness to Pay for FE <ul><li>J.D. Power Hybrid Vehicle Acceptance Study </li></ul><ul><li>March 6, 2002 Press Release...
Customer Value of Hybrid Fuel Savings (Savings for the first 50,000 miles @ U.S.$1.80/gallon) Hybrid  fuel economy increas...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

John German - PowerPoint Presentation

1,040

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,040
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
46
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

John German - PowerPoint Presentation

  1. 1. What Does the Future Hold for Advanced Technologies? John German American Honda Motor Co., Inc. Advanced Powertrain Forum August 5, 2005
  2. 2. 3 Issues for the Future Automobile: Energy Supply & Demand Sustainability Urban Air Quality Climate Change
  3. 3. Transportation’s Social Issues Climate Change Key Issues Air Pollution Energy Sustainability Social Concerns
  4. 4. Honda is Committed to Clean and Efficient Gasoline Vehicles <ul><li>Technically advanced F.E. leading models in the market </li></ul><ul><li>Popular mass-market models with continual efficiency improvement </li></ul><ul><li>Highest CAFE of major OEMs </li></ul>
  5. 5. Honda’s Environmental Leadership 1975 Civic CVCC 1 st to meet ’70’s Clean Air Act, without a catalyst 1986 Civic CRX-HF 1 st to top 50-mpg mark Seemingly-incompatible achievement of -- 1. Strong performance 2. Low emissions 3. High fuel economy 1990 VTEC engine introduced
  6. 6. Honda’s Power Train Roadmap 2010 1990 2000 i-VTEC 2020 Improvement of ICE C V T VTEC-E FCV Accord I M A Alternative Fuel Vehicle Hydrogen fueled FCV CNG i-DSI + Efficiency / CO 2 Reduction I M A INSIGHT Integrated Motor Assist I. C. Engine Technologies Civic IMA
  7. 7. Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future <ul><li>Future Building Block </li></ul><ul><li>LEV, ULEV, SULEV Leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure is perfect </li></ul><ul><li>Reasonable cost </li></ul><ul><li>Catalyst technology </li></ul>CLEAN GASOLINE PURE ELECTRIC <ul><li>Future Building Blocks </li></ul><ul><li>EV know-how </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure Issues </li></ul><ul><li>Home Refueling </li></ul><ul><li>Customer Habits </li></ul>CNG <ul><li>Future Building Blocks </li></ul><ul><li>Working with Government </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding Fleet Customers </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure Challenges </li></ul><ul><li>Gaseous Fuel know-how </li></ul>
  8. 8. Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future <ul><li>Combines BEV with ULEV </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure is perfect </li></ul><ul><li>Cost is affordable </li></ul><ul><li>Good Customer Acceptance </li></ul><ul><li>Future Building Block: </li></ul><ul><li>Electric Energy Mgmt & Safety... </li></ul>GASOLINE-ELECTRIC HYBRIDS HOME REFUELED AFV <ul><li>Combines CNG with BEV attributes: </li></ul><ul><li>Home Refueling </li></ul><ul><li>As Clean as a BEV </li></ul><ul><li>Lower Cost potential </li></ul><ul><li>Future Building Block: </li></ul><ul><li>Potential Infrastructure Solution </li></ul><ul><li>Gaseous Fuel know-how </li></ul>PURE ELECTRIC CNG CLEAN GASOLINE
  9. 9. Honda’s Future Dream <ul><li>Built on Core Honda Technologies: </li></ul><ul><li>EV and HEV vehicle know-how </li></ul><ul><li>Gaseous Fuel know-how </li></ul><ul><li>Catalyst know-how </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Technology innovation (Ultra-Cap) </li></ul>CNG HOME REFUELED AFV GASOLINE-ELECTRIC HYBRIDS CLEAN GASOLINE PURE ELECTRIC FUEL CELL VEHICLES
  10. 10. Conventional Technology
  11. 11. Honda VTEC Combustion: ‘ 91 ‘ 95 ‘ 03 50% Application % <ul><li>HIGHER EFFICIENCY </li></ul><ul><li>LOWER EMISSIONS </li></ul><ul><li>GREATER PERFORMANCE </li></ul>(Variable valve Timing and lift, Electronically Controlled)
  12. 12. Vehicle speed Cruise Decel Accel 6 Cylinder operation 3 Cylinder operation Variable Cylinder Management
  13. 13. Honda Announced Improvements <ul><li>2006 Civic VTEC </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Delays intake valve closure timing during cruising and other low-load conditions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Throttle-by-wire used for larger throttle opening and a major reduction in pumping loss </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Switches valve timing for excellent acceleration </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Advanced VTEC </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Continuously variable intake valve timing and lift </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>+ 13% efficiency (vs. 2005 i-VTEC engine </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Advanced VCM </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased flexibility to expand range of driving conditions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improved active control engine mounts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>+ 11% efficiency (vs. 2005 Honda V-6 engine) </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. Transmission Advances <ul><li>Dual-clutch automated manual </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Smooth shifting and potentially cheaper </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But launch concerns (no torque converter), huge investment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Excellent city efficiency and extremely smooth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Can deliver steady-state engine speeds to facilitate HCCI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But torque limited, highway efficiency lower (belt friction), huge investment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Improved shift points and lock-up strategies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Low investment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lapillier 6-speed automatic </li></ul>Computer controls are enabling a variety of improved transmission designs Not yet clear which is most cost-effective – all may co-exist
  15. 15. Incremental FE Technology <ul><li>Engine technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High specific output </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(including 4 valve/cylinder) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Variable valve timing/lift </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cylinder deactivation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Direct injection </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Precise air/fuel metering </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Transmission efficiency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>5/6 speed-AT/6-speed MT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CVT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dual-clutch automated MT </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reduced losses </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lightweight materials </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low drag coefficient </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low resistance tires </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lower accessory losses </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cost and value issue </li></ul><ul><li>These technologies are continuously being incorporated into vehicles. </li></ul><ul><li>However, consumers value other attributes more highly, such as performance, safety, utility, and luxury. </li></ul><ul><li>Putting in technologies just to improve fuel economy may not be valued by customers. </li></ul>Fuel Economy Improvement - ??? Depends on how much is already incorporated into fleet and synergies (or lack of synergy) between technologies
  16. 16. Worldwide Fuel Control <ul><li>On a systems basis, good fuel is needed to enable many technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Growing countries, such as India and China, need to improve fuel quality </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sulfur </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Heavy metals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aromatics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deposit additives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>etc </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Diesels
  18. 18. Comparison Between U.S. & Europe Source: US Department of Energy Report, October 2003; Association of European Automobile Manufacturers, April 2003 Note: All data valid through December 2002 Correlation with fuel price: R 2 =0.61 Diesel emission standards less stringent than gasoline in Europe
  19. 19. <ul><li>Diesels good for towing and highway efficiency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But hybrids get better fuel economy in city driving </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Diesels are currently cheaper than hybrids, but are not cheap </li></ul><ul><ul><li>$1500 for 4-cyl., $2000-$3000 for V-8 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tier 2 emission standards will add significant cost </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Less convenient service stations (only ~ 20% carry diesel) </li></ul><ul><li>Will take time for public to recognize improvements in noise, vibration, smell, starting, and emissions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Plus pickup customers want a “tough” diesel, not a wimpy quiet one </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Must compete with improved gasoline engines and hybrids </li></ul><ul><li>Europe refineries already shipping unwanted gasoline to US </li></ul><ul><ul><li>With continued fleet turnover to diesel in Europe, who will buy gasoline if US also shifts to diesels? </li></ul></ul>Diesel Market Potential in US
  20. 20. Hybrids
  21. 21. Electric Motor Intelligent Power Unit (IPU) Hybrid Vehicles CVT Efficient hybrid engine Civic Hybrid
  22. 22. Integrated Motor Assist Hybrid Transmission Motor / Generator Engine Battery Inverter Parallel - Type <ul><li>Relatively Simple, Lightweight & Compact </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient in City and Highway driving </li></ul>
  23. 23. Honda HEV Technology Evolution <ul><li>Fuel Economy No.1 </li></ul>&quot; World Best Efficiency” <ul><li>Hybrid vehicle for personal use </li></ul><ul><li>World best aerodynamic design </li></ul><ul><li>Light aluminum body </li></ul><ul><li>VTEC + IMA system </li></ul>1999 <ul><li>First optional hybrid powertrain </li></ul>High volume compact car <ul><li>i-DSI + IMA system </li></ul><ul><li>Innovative Sedan Package </li></ul><ul><li>Mainstream compact </li></ul>2002 <ul><li>First V6 hybrid </li></ul>Performance + efficiency <ul><li>255 horsepower –better than V6 </li></ul><ul><li>City 29, hwy 37 mpg (same as Civic class) </li></ul><ul><li>Mainstream midsize </li></ul>2004
  24. 24. Powerplant <ul><li>Parallel-Type Hybrid System </li></ul><ul><li>Simple, Lightweight & Compact </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient in City and Highway driving </li></ul><ul><li>IMA Motor </li></ul><ul><li>DC brushless </li></ul><ul><li>New IPM Motor </li></ul><ul><li>Resolver sensor </li></ul>V6 3.0L i-VTEC VCM Engine (Variable Cylinder Management) Compact 5AT Long torsion, LC response UP torque converter
  25. 25. Engine and Motor Output Characteristics High Efficiency, High Torque Electric Motor CIVIC HYBRID (1.3L Engine only)
  26. 26. Attractive Hybrid Features Integrated Electric Motor Low Operating Cost: Best “Idle” Quality: Superior Driving Range: Pride of Ownership: Beats any Luxury Car! Fewer Trips to the Station! Social Benefits! Fuel Savings!
  27. 27. Alternative Fuels
  28. 28. Honda’s Advanced CNG Technology <ul><li>Civic GX Values </li></ul><ul><li>Range > 200 miles </li></ul><ul><li>CO 2 reduction > 20% </li></ul><ul><li>Performance = Gasoline </li></ul><ul><li>Near-Zero Emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Proven Honda DQR </li></ul><ul><li>Satisfied customers </li></ul>Compact Cars - CO 2 Comparisons “Wellhead-to-Wheel” CO 2 emission 0 100 200 300 400 Civic Gasoline Jetta Diesel 353 306 Civic CNG 264 Civic Hybrid 236 -25% -11%
  29. 29. Infrastructure Innovations NGVs Fleet Forklifts Private Fleet Refueling Home Refueling Fleet & Consumer Public Fast Fill Infrastructure Network Buses, Heavy Duty
  30. 30. FCX-V2 FCX-V3 Improved performance and reliability Evolves to the next generation Compact Excellent performance Superb durability Methanol-reforming fueled fuel cell stack on FCX-V2 High-pressure hydrogen tank on a pure hydrogen-fueled FCX-V3 Series of public road tests as part of Next-generation Honda FC Stack   released Start of R&D on fuel cell basic technology ‘ 80s ‘ 99 ‘ 00 ‘ 01 ‘ 02 ‘ 03 ‘ 04 Development History of Honda FC Stack 2001 1999 2005 model launch CaFCP
  31. 31. Output density of Honda FC stack Compact High output
  32. 32. FCX Equipped with Honda Fuel Cell STACK Spring 04 confirmation in California, and fall 04 in New York Japan testing started fall 03 First delivery to an individual customer in July 2005 Environmental adaptability Low/high temperature Performance Improved acceleration performance Fuel efficiency Improved energy efficiency
  33. 33. Home Energy Station Reformated Gas Home Refueling with Co-generation Heat Electricity Hydrogen Natural gas Reform Fuel cell Inverter Compress Storage tank ~ Refine Cooperative development with Plug Power ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
  34. 34. Fuel Cells: The Holy Grail <ul><li>Advantages: </li></ul><ul><li>Very high fuel conversion efficiencies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greatly reduced heat loss </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Virtually zero emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Quiet </li></ul><ul><li>Reliable and long lifetime </li></ul><ul><li>Low maintenance </li></ul><ul><li>Wide range of applications in addition to vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges </li></ul><ul><li>Packaging, size, weight </li></ul><ul><li>Cost </li></ul><ul><li>Waste heat rejection </li></ul><ul><li>Air supply  Compressor </li></ul><ul><li>Cold temperature operation </li></ul><ul><li>On-board hydrogen storage </li></ul><ul><li>Hydrogen infrastructure </li></ul>
  35. 35. System Comparison
  36. 36. Comparison of CO 2 Emissions Renewable Energy Oil Base Natural Gas Base CO 2 emissions [g/km] Tank to Wheels Well to Tank Honda’s Estimate JAPAN 10-15 mode FE base in 2010 CIVIC (VTEC-E) FIT (i-DSI) CIVIC IMA Diesel Engine Gasoline Reform. FCV CIVIC CNG Methanol Reform. FCV Hydrogen FCV 0 50 100 150 0 23km/L 16km/L 20km/L 29km/L (1250kg) Improvement of Gasoline Vehicle
  37. 37. Current Evaluation of Power Plant Technologies : Excellent : Good : Marginal : No contribution or not acceptable H 2 Fuel Cell Gasoline Nat Gas Gasoline Hybrid Social Demand Customer Demand Tailpipe Emissions Efficiency (CO 2 ) Alt. Fuel Cost Infra- structure Diesel Technology ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ △ △ △ △ △ △ × × × × × × ○ ○ (tank) ○ ○ ○ w/ home refueling Package (Volume, Wt., features) × (inc. range) △ ○ - (range)
  38. 38. Development History of Honda Hybrids 00 Insight 03 Civic IMA 05 Accord IMA 06 Civic IMA 60 mm thick, 10kW NiMH, 144v, 35 kg Air cooled also asymmetric windings + 30 % torque Volume –30%, weight –6% Integrated cooling –32% weight, -20% size. Also more efficient inverter Internal magnet + resolver pickup, 12kW Volume –10%, weight –17% Power + 20% Integrated inverter, condenser, heat sink: –13% weight, -57% size High density coil windings High-performance magnets 15 kW , same size Inverter integrated with motor ECU Battery output power increased 30% 158v Improved cooling High strength material Soft, magnetic material Magnet Silicon Steel Improved electrode New Current Collector Reduce internal resistance U-shape, 12-cell series module Condenser
  39. 39. Hybrid Synergies <ul><li>More efficient electric pumps and compressors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Beltless engine </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Extend operating windows for Atkinson cycle and cylinder deactivation </li></ul><ul><li>Provide quasi-steady-state load conditions for HCCI/CAI operation (especially with CVT) </li></ul><ul><li>E-turbo </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High electric power – supercharger boost </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>When power is not needed, use exhaust energy to drive e-turbo and recharge battery </li></ul></ul>
  40. 40. Potential Operating Modes CAI – Controlled Auto Ignition Assumes camless valve actuation and e-turbo Atkinson cycle Otto cycle Electric motor only
  41. 41. Consumer Features <ul><li>Plenty of electric power to do anything </li></ul><ul><li>On-board electric generator </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Construction, emergency power </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Individual climate-controlled seats </li></ul><ul><li>Power everything </li></ul><ul><li>Automatic load leveling and shock resistance </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple video displays and high power sound </li></ul><ul><li>Safety features – cameras, heads-up displays </li></ul><ul><li>“ Stealth” operation (military, police, crooks) </li></ul><ul><li>No limit to the imagination </li></ul>
  42. 42. Mid-Term Evaluation of Hybrids vs. Diesels : Excellent : Good : Marginal : No contribution or not acceptable Gasoline Gasoline Hybrid Social Demand Customer Demand Tailpipe Emissions Efficiency (CO 2 ) Alt. Fuel Package (Volume, Wt., features) Cost Infra- structure Diesel Technology ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ○ ○ ○ △ △ × × × × △ ○ ○ ○ - △ ○ - ◎ △ ○ - △ ○ - Diesels in wide-open rural areas – value highway FE and towing Hybrids everywhere else? – better city FE plus electric features Hybrid Cost down Synergies + customer features Diesel Emissions down, but cost up Diesel shift  cheap gasoline
  43. 43. Technology Conclusions <ul><li>Challenge is customer’s low value of fuel economy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Real cost of driving very low </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Performance, utility, comfort, safety valued more highly </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Most only consider fuel savings during ownership period </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Hybrid technology is progressing rapidly </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Costs coming down </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Synergies with other technologies developing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer features will develop </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Crystal ball unclear </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improved conventional engines keep raising the bar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fuel cells the endgame, but timing unclear (not near term) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CNG may appeal to a segment who dislikes refueling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Diesels for rural areas, hybrids for urban? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple transmission designs likely </li></ul></ul>
  44. 45. Barriers to Achieving Potential Fuel Economy Increases in Cars and Light Trucks <ul><li>Tradeoff with other attributes </li></ul><ul><li>Declining fuel cost </li></ul><ul><li>Consumers versus society </li></ul>
  45. 46. CAFE History Historical combined car and light truck CAFE <ul><li>Since 1987: </li></ul><ul><li>Car CAFE up 0.9 mpg, light truck CAFE down 0.8 mpg </li></ul><ul><li>LDT market share increased from 28% to 48% </li></ul><ul><li>Combined CAFE decreased by 1.5 mpg </li></ul>
  46. 47. Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - Cars Car Data from EPA’s 2003 FE Trends Report Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.5% per year since 1987 However, this has all been used to increase other attributes more highly valued by the customer, such as performance, comfort, utility, and safety
  47. 48. Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - LDT Light Truck Data from EPA’s 2003 FE Trends Report Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.9% per year since 1987 However, this has all been used to increase other attributes more highly valued by the customer, such as performance, comfort, utility, and safety
  48. 49. Real Gasoline Price June 2004
  49. 50. Fleet Fuel Economy
  50. 51. Gasoline Cost per Mile
  51. 52. Real Fuel Cost - % of Disposable Income Per Capita Disposable Income from BEA, Table 2.1, Personal Income and It's Disposition
  52. 53. Willingness to Pay for FE <ul><li>J.D. Power Hybrid Vehicle Acceptance Study </li></ul><ul><li>March 6, 2002 Press Release </li></ul><ul><li>Consumer interest in hybrid vehicles increases as gasoline prices rise </li></ul><ul><li>30% of buyers would “definitely” consider - another 30% indicate a strong consideration </li></ul><ul><li>Of these, 1/3 would buy even if fuel cost savings during their ownership period would be less than the extra cost of the hybrid option </li></ul>2/3 would not pay more than fuel savings during ownership period
  53. 54. Customer Value of Hybrid Fuel Savings (Savings for the first 50,000 miles @ U.S.$1.80/gallon) Hybrid fuel economy increase 34 mpg baseline 23 mpg baseline 14 mpg baseline Small car Midsize car Large truck + 20% + 40% + 80% $441 $756 $1,176 $652 $1,118 $1,739 $1,071 $1,837 $2,857 J.D.Power survey on hybrids found that “Consumers indicate a willingness to pay more – $1,000 to $1,500 – for a hybrid powertrain…”
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×