Telematics & Wireless Carriers

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  • 1. Egil Juliussen. Ph.D., Principal Analyst & Fellow, Automotive Business, iSuppli Corp. Consumer Telematics, Las Vegas, January 6, 2010 Telematics & Wireless Carriers
    • Wireless Carrier Overview
    • Communication Trends
    • Telematics & Internet
    • Android & iPhone
    • Summary
  • 2. OEM Embedded Telematics: USA Availability is Share of Auto Models Carrier perspectives: M2M connection with low ARPU
  • 3. OEM Mobile Device Telematics: USA Availability is Share of Auto Models Carrier perspectives: Extra driver phone revenue; Data plan potential
  • 4. USA Carrier Relations * Supplier is Autonet;
    • Aftermarket
    • Chrysler*
    • Cadillac*
    • VW*
    • Aftermarket
    Cellular WiFi Router Verizon Sprint AT&T T-Mobile Jasper M2M Smart Phones
    • BlackBerry
    • Android
    • WinMobile
    • BlackBerry
    • Palm Pre
    • Android
    • WinMobile
    • iPhone
    • BlackBerry
    • Symbian
    • WinMobile
    • BlackBerry
    • Android
    • WinMobile
    • n/a
    Connected PNDs
    • Garmin 1690
    • Nuviphone
    • TomTom
    Telematics
    • GM OnStar
    • M-B
    • Toyota
    • BMW
  • 5. Carriers Own Brand: Off-board Navigation USA Verizon Wireless Sprint AT&T T-Mobile Alltel Wireless U.S. Cellular Navigation Brand VZ Navigator Sprint Navigation AT&T Navigator None Alltel Navigation Your Navigator Germany T-Mobile Vodafone e-plus+ O2 Navigation Brand Navigate Navigon Vodafone Navigator None None UK T-Mobile Orange Vodafone 3 UK O2 Navigation Brand None Orange Sat Nav Vodafone Sat Nav None None France SFR Orange Bouygues Telecom Navigation Brand SFR Navigator Orange Navigation Map and Go None Japan NTT DoCoMo KDDI au Softbank Willcom Navigation Brand I area Navitime Navitime EZ @ map Navitime Navitime
  • 6. Carrier Auto Market Potential BFG=Before Free Google; AFG=After Free Google
    • BFG: 40M+
    • AFG: 20M+
    • BFG: 8M+
    • AFG: 6.5M+
    • Subs: $10/month
    • Pay-per-use: $1-2
    Off-board Navigation
    • 100M+ subs
    • 50M+ users
    • 10M+ subs
    • 5M+ users
    • Subs: $2-10/month
    • Pay-per-use: $1-5
    Other LBS Content
    • Unknown
    • 5-10% of total
    • OEM: 6M+ subs
    • AM: 8M+ subs
    • 50M+ users
    • 15M+ users
    • 20M+ subscribers
    • 1.5M+ subscribers
    2016 Potential Business Model 2010 Potential Embedded Telematics
    • New voice plan; subs
    • New data plan; subs
    • 6M+ subscribers
    • Negligible
    Mobile Device Telematics
    • Voice plan; more use
    • Data plan; more use
    • 15M+ users
    • 1M+ users
    Cellular WiFi Router
    • New data plan; subs
    • OEM & Aftermarket
    • OEM: 0.1M+ subs
    • AM: 0.2M+ subs
    App Store: Auto Apps
    • 1-time app sales
    • Apps w/service sales
    • Unknown
    • 3-5% of total
  • 7. Egil Juliussen. Ph.D., Principal Analyst & Fellow, Automotive Business, iSuppli Corp. Consumer Telematics, Las Vegas, January 6, 2010 Telematics & Wireless Carriers
    • Wireless Carrier Overview
    • Communication Trends
    • Telematics & Internet
    • Android & iPhone
    • Summary
  • 8. Connected Vehicle: What is Connected?
    • Safety & Security
    • eCall/ACN connection
    • b-Call/road assistance link
    • Safety & Security
    • Car-to-car: driver assist systems
    • Car-to-roadway: collision avoidance
    Connected Driver-Passengers Connected Vehicle
    • Infotainment Related
    • Voice communication link
    • Information access connection
    • Entertainment download link
    • Mobile device connection
    • Car Infotainment Systems
    • Remote system control
    • Map update connection
    • Tracking information connection
    • Stolen vehicle tracking connection
    • Driving Related
    • Route-destination download link
    • Traffic information connection
    • Mobile search connection
    • Mobile navigation connection
    • Electronic toll connection
    • Road usage fee connection
    • Core Auto Systems
    • Remote diagnostics connection
    • System problem reporting link
    • ECU SW correction connection
    • ECU SW function update link
    • State mandate compliance link
    • OEM/Dealer/CRM link
  • 9. What Are the Connection Technologies? Tech Systems/Apps Other Information Embedded Cellular
    • Core auto systems
    • ECU management
    • Safety and security
    • GM OnStar, BMW Assist approach
    • Remote diagnostics is a hit
    • Remote SW management is next
    Driver ’ s Mobile Phone
    • Infotainment focus
    • Some safety & security
    • Limited ECU apps
    • Fiat Blue&Me, Ford Sync approach
    • Driver ’ s mobile phone plan
    • Adding services: Japan, Sync, Blue&Me
    Cellular to Embedded Wi-Fi Router
    • Mobile devices in car
    • Infotainment
    • Rear-seat apps
    • Router for many devices
    • Link to home LAN, access points
    • Future WiMax candidate
    DSRC or IEEE 802.11p WAVE
    • V2X applications
    • Driver assist
    • Safety & security
    • Infotainment
    • Real-time: Response in milliseconds
    • V2X and ADAS integration
    • Most/key apps require DSRC
    • Mandate required; ROI: not if, but when
  • 10. Connected Vehicle Technology Evolution 2000 2010 2020 Safety & Security Cable or Cradle DSRC- 802.11p Embedded Cellular Driver Phone ECU SW Management Remote Diagnostics Service Portfolio Bluetooth HFI Driver Centric V2V-V2I Apps V2V Apps Real-time Data Core auto Centric Service Portfolio Cellular to Wi-Fi Router AM, OEM Product Service Portfolio Infotainment Centric ECU SW Mgmt?
  • 11. Connected Infotainment Applications -- Telematics connection needed
    • Cached Internet radio
    • Live Internet radio
    • Video content
    • Feasible 2014+
    • Requires broadband
    Remote H-U Content
    • Internet radio & video
    • Internet games & social nets
    • Rear-seat entertainment
    • Cellular-WiFi router
    Passenger Content Current Features Emerging/Future Features Head-Unit
    • Satellite radio
    • Mobile music interfaces
    • Mobile TV receiver
    • Digital radio
    • Music downloads
    • Video & TV downloads
    Navigation
    • Traffic & weather
    • Destination download
    • Probe car data
    • Off-board navigation
    • Mobile search
    • Traffic camera video
    • Eco-navigation
    • Remote map update
    • Incremental map update
    • LBS functions
    Telematics Services
    • Vehicle home page
    • Concierge services
    • Infotainment App Store
    • Internet apps & services
  • 12. Connected Auto System Applications AM=Aftermarket -- Telematics connection needed
    • Road event warnings
    • Collision warning
    • Collision avoidance
    • Eco applications
    V2V & V2I Current Feature Emerging/Future Features Core Auto ECUs
    • Remote diagnostics
    • Remote operation
    • AM: OBDII to iPhone
    • Software corrections
    • Smartphone remote operation
    • Software upgrades
    • Functional upgrades
    Infotainment ECUs
    • Remote diagnostics
    • Software corrections
    • Smartphone remote operation
    • Software upgrades
    • Functional upgrades
    ADAS
    • Driver assist functions
    • Collision warning
    • Collision avoidance
    • V2I & V2V integration apps
  • 13. V2V and V2I Applications
    • V2I Applications
    • Intersection safety
    • Turning safety
    • Merging safety
    • Eco/fuel-saving apps
    • Infotainment Link
    • Information to driver
    • Info to passengers
    • Info to mobile devices
    • Telematics applications
    V2V2I: Communication links for many applications & services
    • V2V Applications
    • Emergency warnings
    • Enhanced driver assist
    • Collision avoidance
    • New driver assist apps
    • V2V2I
    • Broadband com link
    • IEEE 802.11p; DSRC
    • IEEE 1609 WAVE
    • SAE J735 Messages
    • Other com links
    • Transport Efficiency
    • Traffic management
    • ETC & other payments
    • Traffic info flow: 2-way
  • 14. V2X Perspectives
    • Many safety applications
    • If so when and how much?
    • Capability of integrated systems
    • Overlapping applications
    • Will V2X & ADAS compete?
    • Or augment each other?
    V2X versus ADAS
    • Project collision potential
    • For all nearby cars
    • Warn driver if needed
    • Speed & direction
    • Precise location
    • Car weight & type
    Heartbeat Message
    • WiFi router price: <$100
    • Low-cost AM device likely
    • But expensive RSE
    • Manufacturing cost: <$100
    • When volume production
    • Much lower cost than ADAS
    V2X Hardware Cost
    • 5.9 GHz or 5.8 GHz
    • No time for PC-like network
    • Broadcast by each car 10x/sec
    • Dedicated frequency spectrum
    • Ad-hoc network architecture
    • “ Heartbeat” message is key
    Key Technologies Comments Key Information
  • 15. V2X Summary Metcalfe’s law : The value of a communications network is proportional to square of the number of users
    • Aftermarket: 30%-33%
    • Aftermarket: 31%-34%
    • Aftermarket: 32%-35%
    • Aftermarket: 28%-32%
    • Japan: 28M-32M units
    • USA: 85M-95M units
    • W. Europe: 80M-90M units
    • Worldwide: 250M-300M units
    2015-2025 V2V Sales
    • Rapid deployment is best
    • Follows Metcalfe’s law
    • AM incentives recommended
    • Mandate needed
    • Benefits have network effect
    • Aftermarket sales is important
    V2 Deployment
    • Accident avoidance to eco apps
    • Safety applications first
    • Who will do V2I applications?
    • With good network coverage
    • Many applications
    • OEMs to focus on V2V apps
    • V2I application come later
    • Infotainment apps even later
    V2X Applications
    • Tremendous long-term benefits
    • Society ROI is very good
    • Not an if, but a when question
    • Infrastructure investment is high
    V2X Future Comments Key Information
  • 16. Egil Juliussen. Ph.D., Principal Analyst & Fellow, Automotive Business, iSuppli Corp. Consumer Telematics, Las Vegas, January 6, 2010 Telematics & Wireless Carriers
    • Wireless Carrier Overview
    • Communication Trends
    • Telematics & Internet
    • Android & iPhone
    • Summary
  • 17. Telematics vs. Internet Connected Cars
    • Music downloads
    • Internet radio
    • Video downloads (passenger only)
    • Traffic camera video downloads
    • Safety applications
    • Remote diagnostics
    • Navigation services
    • Mobile search
    Typical Applications
    • BMW Assist (Germany only)
    • HFI & Smartphone w/data plan
    • Chrysler Uconnect Web-WiFi router
    • GM OnStar (Embedded)
    • Ford Sync (Mobile phone)
    • Fiat Blue&Me (Mobile phone)
    Typical Systems Telematics-Connected Internet-Connected Communication Links
    • Embedded cellular
    • Mobile device HFI
    • Embedded & mobile device HFI
    • Embedded cellular & data plan
    • Mobile device HFI & data plan
    • Embedded cellular to WiFi router
    Key Characteristics
    • In-band modem (voice plan)
    • No data plans-yet
    • Low bandwidth apps
    • Data plan required
    • Broadband communication
    • Mostly high bandwidth apps
    2009 Market Size-USA
    • Embedded sales: 2.6M
    • Mobile device HFI sales: 5M
    • Telematics service users: 6M
    • Embedded Internet users: none
    • Mobile device car users: 0.48M
    • WiFi router car users: 40K
    2016 Market Potential-USA
    • Embedded sales: 10M
    • Mobile device HFI sales: 12M
    • Telematics service users: 20M
    • Embedded Internet users: 1.7M
    • Mobile device car users: 19M
    • WiFi router car users: 7M
  • 18. Internet in the Car Definition
    • Internet in the car is a very fluid concept
    • Many Internet-based applications are already used in cars or content are delivered to car systems via Internet infrastructure, but are not classified as Internet usage
      • Email, RSS, instant messaging and mobile search
      • Traffic information, destination download & off-board navigation
    • To access Internet content, application and services will require a communication link with a data plan
    • Hence iSuppli’s definition of Internet in the Car is as follows:
      • Any communication link with a data plan that is connected to a car system is an Internet-enabled or Internet connected car
    • There are currently 3 communication links that qualify:
      • Embedded telematics links (only BMW in Germany qualifies)
      • Mobile device telematics link (growing Smartphone data plans)
      • Cellular to WiFi router (all have data plan)
  • 19. Internet & Telematics Connection Overlaps Internet Connected Cars Internet Devices Used in Cars
    • Telematics Connected Cars
    • Embedded
    • Mobile device
    Voice Plan & In-band Modem
    • PCs & Netbooks
    • Mobile Internet Devices
    • Portable Media Players
    • Portable Games
    • Others
    Data Plan Note: The Internet-connected car circle is currently very small
  • 20. USA Telematics versus Car Internet Users
  • 21. Telematics Evolution 2005 2010 2015 Embedded TM 2.5G & IBM Services Embedded & BT 2.5G-3G; IBM Smartphone Bandwidth TM=Telematics; IBM=In-Band Modem; BT=Bluetooth; WAVE=Wireless Access in Vehicular Environment Mobile Device 2.5G-3G; HFI Mobile Device 3G; Smartphone IBM; Services Cellular-Router 3G & Data Plan Embedded & BT IBM; Data Plan 3G; Smartphone Mobile Device 3G; Data Plan Smartphone Embedded & BT Data Plan; 3.5G-4G; Smartphone Mobile Device Data Plan; 3.5G- 4G; Smartphone Cellular-Router 3.5G-4G; Data Plan V2V & V2I; DSRC; WAVE
  • 22. Egil Juliussen. Ph.D., Principal Analyst & Fellow, Automotive Business, iSuppli Corp. Consumer Telematics, Las Vegas, January 6, 2010 Telematics & Wireless Carriers
    • Wireless Carrier Overview
    • Communication Trends
    • Telematics & Internet
    • Android & iPhone
    • Summary
  • 23. iPhone: The New LBS Battleground Category Suppliers Comments Maps
    • Maps Icon (Apple)
    • Mapquest
    • Google Map Server—how long?
    • Top Mapping application
    On-Board Navigation
    • TomTom: $100; $70-promo
    • Magellan: $100; $80-promo
    • Navigon: $90 $70-promo
    • NavNGo iGO: $80
    • NDrive: $30 intro
    • ALK CoPilot: $40; $20 intro
    • Sygic: $40-USA
    • XRoad G-Map: $50
    • Apple’s blessing; NA & EU
    • NA, Navteq, Pedestrian mode
    • NA, EU
    • NA
    • USA; Also other Smartphones
    • Inrix traffic info
    • NA, EU, & Asian coverage
    • N. America
    Off-Board Navigation
    • AT&T Navigator: $120/Yr
    • Mapquest: $30/Yr
    • Networks In Motion: $40/Yr
    • MotionX-GPS: $25/Yr
    • Telenav; $10/mo
    • NA; Telmap; $4/mo; $10/3-mos
    • NA; $5/mo
    • NA; $3/mo
    Traffic Information
    • Inrix (free app)
    • Traffic.com Pro
    • Via onboard/off-board apps
    • Probe data source; very popular
    • Ad-free: $3/mo
    • Life-time price: $25 range
    LBS Applications
    • Hundreds of companies
    • Thousands of apps
    • 11%+ of total apps
    • More than 3,000 LBS apps
  • 24. Android: The Next LBS Battleground?
    • Google PR exceeds carriers’ PR
    • Leading edge, shows potential
    • Primarily as Android PR
    • High-end Smartphone
    Google Nexus One
    • Motorola Droid set standard
    • Data plan roaming fees in EU
    • Operators set price
    • Operators set price
    • Android 2.0: Free in USA
    • Free in other regions?
    • Telmap Navigator
    • Telenav
    Off-Board Navigation Category Key Information Comments Maps
    • Google Map Server
    • Now uses it own maps
    On-Board Navigation
    • Many already available
    • ALK CoPilot: $40; $20 intro
    • Intrinsyc Destinator: $70
    • Navigon
    • NavNGo iGO: $80
    • Similar pricing to iPhone $40-$80
    • NA
    • NA, Navteq map
    • EU
    • NA & EU; $120-Pan-EU
    LBS Applications
    • Hundreds of companies
    • Thousands of apps
    • 10%+ of total apps
    • More than 1,600 LBS apps
    Future LBS, Navigation
    • Free off-board navi impact?
    • Impact on other LBS?
    • Will navi apps keep up?
    • It will stunt Android navi market
    • But how much?
    • iPhone: More navi innovation?
  • 25. What Is the App Store Concept for Cars?
    • 100K+ applications available
    • 18K+ applications available
    • Apple iPhone App Store
    • Android Market Place
    Smartphone Examples
    • H-U, navigation, telematics
    • Current systems are low volume
    • Others: Win Auto, QNX, Android
    • Primarily for infotainment
    • Need high volume SW platforms
    • Opportunity for Genivi standard
    Auto App Stores
    • Continental has an App Store
    • BMW has an App Store
    • Many iPhone auto apps available
    • Tier 1-3 suppliers
    • Auto manufacturers
    • Smartphone apps for auto
    Auto Apps Sources
    • Smartphone auto apps first
    • Genivi is best positioned
    • Telematics needed for download
    • Important by 2015 or sooner
    • Standard-based H-U to lead
    • Telematics apps to be important
    Auto Apps Future
    • Works best for standard platforms
    • Easy to understand, find, use, buy
    • SW firm gets 60-80% of revenue
    • Internet-based application store
    • Must have easy user interface
    • Mostly from 3 rd party SW firms
    What Is An App Store? Comments Key Information
  • 26. Egil Juliussen. Ph.D., Principal Analyst & Fellow, Automotive Business, iSuppli Corp. Consumer Telematics, Las Vegas, January 6, 2010 Telematics & Wireless Carriers
    • Wireless Carrier Overview
    • Communication Trends
    • Telematics & Internet
    • Android & iPhone
    • Summary
  • 27. Connected Vehicle Deployment 2000 2010 2020 Selective Prevalent V2V & V2I Embedded Cellular Selective Prevalent Standard Selective Prevalent Standard Driver Phone HFI Selective Selective Standard Selective Standard Selective Prevalent Selective Prevalent Selective Prevalent Selective Prevalent Selective Prevalent Standard Selective Prevalent Standard Cellular to WiFi Router China W. Europe USA US WE Cn US WE Cn US WE Cn US WE Cn
  • 28. Auto Driving Forces: Telematics Solutions ECU Telematics
    • Environmental Issues
    • Mandate driven
    Higher fuel economy Lower emissions Less road congestion Remote Control Telematics Driving Forces Issues
    • Accident Avoidance and/or Mitigation
    • Mandates emerging
    • Connected World & Car
    • Customer pull
    V2X=Vehicle-to-Vehicle & Vehicle-to-Infrastructure; EV=Electric Vehicle; ECU=Electronic Control Unit Driver distraction Driver warnings Driver error fixes Apps & Services More distraction Usage restrictions Telematics Solutions Eco Telematics Safety Telematics EV Telematics V2X Telematics HFI Apps Telematics LBS/Navi Telematics “ Cloud” Telematics Internet Telematics
  • 29. Telematics Feature Evolution 2010 2015 2020 ACN 2.5G Remote Diagnostics Off-Board H-U Radio Destination Download Safety & Security Voice & HFI TM Navi & LBS TM Cloud TM Internet TM ECU TM Traffic Info/Probe Voice HFI Off-board Navi SW Error Updates SW Feature Updates EV TM TSP Remote Control Remote Control Smartphone & PC RC More RC Functions Driver-selected SW Updates Advanced ACN Voice-based SMS Mobile Search Bluetooth Link EV Monitoring Collision Warning V2X TM Collision Avoidance Music Download Off-Board H-U Content Map-POI Updates Incremental Map Update EV Grid Apps-Service Video Download Driver EV Apps Vehicle Slowdown Apps Stores MP3 HFI Autonomous Driving Automated Navi Update More Safety Features More Services
  • 30. Telematics Summary 2005 2010 2015 Embedded Telematics 2.5G Link Voice & IBM Safety Apps Low BW Apps TM=Telematics; IBM=In-Band Modem; BW=Bandwidth; WAVE=Wireless Access in Vehicular Environment Mobile Device Telematics Driver Phone Bluetooth HFI Phone apps Cellular WiFi Router Bluetooth HFI 2 Wireless Links Navi Apps Safety Apps 3G Phone; IBM TM Services High BW Apps Some Data Plan Data Plan via Driver Phone 3G-3.5G Other Data Plan? 3.5G- 4G Data Plan Smartphone Services & Apps 3-3.5G Link Data Plan Infotainment V2V & V2I; DSRC; WAVE Telematics Evolution: Single  Multiple Links Voice/In-Band Modem  Data Plan Low  High Bandwidth Apps 3.5G-4G Telematics Integrated?
  • 31. LBS Summary Perspectives
    • Challenging business models
    • Entrenched players
    • Distribution channel uncertainties
    • Decade of rapid growth
    • Established segments
    • Emerging segments
    LBS Opportunity
    • Many untested/unknown apps
    • Metadata ownership, privacy issues
    • Difficult to monetize (except search)
    • 2005: Negligible
    • 2010: 14M
    • 2015: 100M+
    LBS Centric Users USA
    • Location info to be a commodity
    • Most LBS info has short-time value
    • Roaming prices issues in some areas
    • 2005: 6.1M
    • 2010: 83M
    • 2015: 215M
    LBS-Enabled Devices In-use USA
    • Many established players
    • Ad-based impact likely; Android first
    • Customer may need data plan
    • 2005: 0.3M
    • 2010: 17M
    • 2015: 80M
    Navi Centric Service Users USA
    • Many different HW/SW platforms
    • Some HW/SW platforms to disappear
    • Only iPhone is easy to reach
    • 2005: 2.8M
    • 2010: 30M
    • 2015: 85M
    LBS-Enabled Device Sales USA The Bad News The Good News