CSP Today WebinarCOST ASPECTS OF STE PLANTS IN THE MENA REGION Dr. Luis Crespo President of ESTELA
Opportunities and value of current applications of the different STE technologies Strong PV competition Low investmentEfficiency & High Efficiency Hybridization will Compressed enhance competitiveness Air Rec. Tower Parab. trough Fresnel Molten salt tower Molten salt tower Steam Tower Parab. trough Parab. trough Parab. trough Fresnel Integrated Peak Power Dispatchable Base Load Solar Field (No storage) (Medium size storage) (Large storage)
Cost and revenues issues The cost of the electricity depends on the DNI, efficiency, CAPEX, OPEX, financial costs, public supports, expected life, … (LCOE?) The revenues depends on the dispatch profile and the hourly and seasonally associated prices along with the electricity price evolution All projects until now have been promoted on a FiT or PPA basis Although the “golden end” is a relevant aspect of these plants there are no commercial ways to take it into account when determining the financing terms and conditions. It must be explained to Policy Makers as a big added value when establishing the support programs Therefore the only practical approach to refer to the cost of STE electricity will be to determine which is the PPA or FiT that allows a STE plant to be built.
Cost references from current projects c€/kWh 13 c$/kWh30 30 c€/kWh 25 c$/kWh 14 c€/kWh10 25 c€/kWh 0 21 c$/kWh
The “harmonization” model for STE costs “Discount” factors Plant size PPA or FiT duration Actual PPA for a PPA escalation Harmonized PPA for given project at a rate a typical project at certain location Grants the same location under specific without public support Concessional support circumstances loans Specific Financial conditions Loan durationDISCLAIMER: This attempt to provide reference prices must be considered approximated. There are manydefault values that might be not applicable to all projects as well as some country specific requirements.
Cost reduction estimations:The view from the Industry in 2012 Stars corresponds to “normalized” PPAs or FiTs in 2012 at their respective locations in Spain, USA, India, Morocco South Africa and Israel Hypothesis: 30 GW will be built at that time
What has been done so far (Stars mean achievements)Cost = Cost reductionPerformance increase Cost reduction: Structure Tubes Mirrors Performance increase Cost = Source: The increase of financing Deloitte, Macroeconomic Impact of STE sector in Spain, 2010 costs has counteracted this Cost breakdown for a 50 MW plant with 7 h. storage effort to some extend
The role of reductions on investment and financial costs Redution of PPA with CAPEX Reduction of PPA with interest rate 35% 14% 30% 12%PPA reducction PPA reduction 25% 10% 20% 8% 15% 6% 10% 4% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% CAPEX reduction Interest rate innovation Performance increase will play as important role as CAPEX reduction Both effects together will make STE plants affordable
The tool for policy makers Cost/kWh The basic questions: STE Plant Conventional How much will a support program cost? Plant Gap1 How much can the economy of my country benefit from it? Year 1 Year n Years Power Energy Cost Returns of all kind DiferenceYear -2 0 0 0 R1 PositiveYear -1 0 0 0 R2 IncreasingYear 1 Gap 1 P1 E1 G1xE1 R3 IncreasingYear 2 Gap 2 P2 E2 G1xE1 + G2xE2 R4 IncreasingYear 3 Gap 3 P3 E3 G1xE1 + G2xE2 + G3xE3 R5 Increasing… … … … … … IncreasingYear n 0 Pn En G1xE1 + G2xE2 + G3xE3 + …Gn-1xEn-1 Rn IncreasingYear n+1 0 En+1 idem Rn+1 Increasing… IncreasingYear 25 0 P25 E25 G2xE2 + …. R25 Golden End starts
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