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Esia Presentation Esia Presentation Presentation Transcript

  • MENASOLAR MARKET PERSPECTIVE VAHID FOTUHI PRESIDENT, ESIA March 5, 2013
  • MENA’s electricity crisisCause: Effect:• Rising population •Production has outpaced GDP growth• Urbanization •Demand has outpaced capacity growth• Economic growth Source: APICORP Research, MENA Power Reassessed: Growth Potential, Investment and Challenges, April-May 2012
  • Where is the fuel? • In 2011, ~60% of power generated using natural gas and ~37% using oil • Why is this a big deal? • Importers will suffer because of huge budgetary strain, less cash for social projects • Exporters will suffer via massive opportunity cost, energy wastageSource: APICORP Research, MENA Power Reassessed: Growth Potential, Investment and Challenges, April-May 2012
  • Importers concern 30 25Gas price ($/MMBtu) 20 Cost of fuel imports rising rapidly 15 10 5 0
  • Exporters concern 10000 9000Saudi Arabia oil consumption / exports (thousand 8000 Oil exports 7000 barrels per day) 6000 5000 Domestic oil consumption The trend does not 4000 look good… 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
  • Everyone’s concern
  • Meanwhile…
  • Additional benefits of solar PV• GDP contribution: •100 MW of solar = $ 600mn in GDP (10x more than fossil fuel)• Fuel savings: •Preserving oil & reducing imports• Environmental benefits: • Cutting 2.5mbb/yr of diesel = 1 million tons of CO2• Jobs: • KSA: 1,000 jobs needed/day • Solar: 15 jobs/MW
  • Poster-child of MENA’s solar PV marketSource: GTM Research & Emirates Solar Industry Association, 2013
  • Other key markets for solar PV
  • “The wagon rests in winter, the sleigh in summer, the horse never.”