• Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
392
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1

Actions

Shares
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Off-Grid Power:The Lowest Hanging Fruit for Implementing Solar Powerin the MENA RegionMENASOL Webinar, March 2013Daniel ZywietzManaging Director, Ambata Capital Middle East &Deputy Chairman, Clean Energy Business Council (CEBC)
  • 2. There are several GW of micro-grids around theworld, most of which currently run on diesel fuel… Global Microgrid Capacity by Market Segment: 4Q 2012 Total >3,000 MWSource: Pike ResearchAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 1
  • 3. Solar is rapidly getting more competitive… Diesel PV ($ / liter) Price of Diesel and PV Modules (EUR / Wp) 1.20 3.50 1.00 3.00 2.50 0.80 2.00 0.60 1.50 0.40 1.00 0.20 0.50 0.00 0.00 Diesel PV ModulesSource: Indexmundi, SolarserverAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 2
  • 4. …and today, PV is cheaper than diesel generators… Cost Cost of Electricity Generation ($ / kWh) ($ / kWh) 0.70 PV 0.60 0.50 Telecom (Diesel, 10 kW load) 0.40 Construction Site 0.30 (Diesel, 200 kW load) 0.20 Mining (Diesel, 1 MW load) 0.10 0.00 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3Notes: Diesel at work market price; WACC 10%, 15 years project lifetime, Opex of 1.5% of Capex.Source: Indexmundi, BSW Solar.Ambata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 3
  • 5. …so why hasn’t PV taken over the off-grid market? Published Off-grid PV Projects in GCC Countries Project Owner / Client Size (kW) Country Online YearUAE GHQ Armed Forces (Signal Corps) PV plant UAE Armed Forces 10 UAE 2008FIFA 2020 Model Stadium Qatar Olympics Committee 95 Qatar 2010Guard Rooms PV EAD Installed Diesel 2010 72 UAERanger Camp PV and Cooling EAD Generator UAE 55 Capacity2010 in Middle East Off-grid PVAl Khatim PV Desalination Plant EAD 25 UAE 2010 the UAE:Green Guardhouse PV Market 2008 - 2012: EAD 11 UAE 2010Solar Pumping in Botteyna Desert 3 - 5 MWEAD - Qasar Al Sarab PV Desalination Private Owner EAD several 11 1,500 UAE UAE 2010 2011Marawah Island PV EAD 490 UAE 2011Umm-Al Zumul Off-grid PVSubihiyah Oasis KOC Visitor Center Private Owner KOC 100 17 GW UAE Kuwait 2011 2011Sahel Worker Camp PV CCC 52 UAE 2012Qusahwira Camp PV NPCC 370 UAE 2012Total 2.8 MWSource: Enerwhere, March 2013Ambata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 4
  • 6. Currently five major hurdles hold back solardevelopment in the off-grid market 1 Diesel Subsidies 2 High Upfront CAPEX 3 Load Management & Storage 4 Temporary Nature of Off-grid Power Needs 5 Market PerceptionAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 5
  • 7. 1 Diesel SubsidiesMany countries still subsidize diesel… Diesel Price Regional Diesel Prices ($ / liter) 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 World market price (Dec 2012) 0.50 0.00 Eurasia Africa Source: Indexmundi Middle East… but Dubai & Jordan now pay full priceAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 6
  • 8. 2 High Upfront CAPEXPower generation not seen as core business, so solaris low on the investment priority listSystem CAPEX Capex of Diesel Generators and PV ($ / kWh) Solar / Diesel Ratio 4,500 18 4,000 3,500 PV is 6 – 18 times 15 3,000 2,500 more expensive 12 2,000 upfront! 9 1,500 6 1,000 3 500 0 0 10 50 100 200 400 800 Plant size (kW) Diesel Generator Solar PV Index Solar / Diesel RatioSource: Enerwhere, September 2012Ambata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 7
  • 9. 3 Load Management & StorageMatching production to load curves is a challenge kW Annual LoadCurve - Construction Site Office (Abu Dhabi) Annual Load Curve – Construction Site Office 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr MayMay Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec DecAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 8
  • 10. 3 Load Management & StorageWithout significant storage, solar penetration islimited to ~20-25% of total energy production Production & Load Curve – Construction Site Office kWNotes: System incorporates 1 hour of battery storageAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 9
  • 11. 3 Load Management & StorageHowever, batteries are still too expensive for mostapplications and complicate the system design Cost Electricity Cost Comparison of Battery Integration ($ / kWh) 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Diesel PV PV + Generator BatteryNotes: Construction site with 100 kW peak load. Diesel of $1.00 / liter; PV system cost $2.5 / Wp; Battery cost $120 / kWh.Ambata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 10
  • 12. 4 High Cost & Limitations of Storage (Batteries) In many off-grid applications the temporary power need is shorter than the payback period Temporary Power Need and Payback Durations of Industries Telecom Security Mining Temporary Power NeedConstruc- PaybacktionOil & Gas Events Temporary Power Need (Years) 0.5 1 1.5 2 3 4 5 6 7+ Ambata / Enerwhere March 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 11
  • 13. However, solar-hybrid systems are competitive inmany markets today… Diesel Price Cost Effectiveness of Solar-Diesel Hybrid Systems (2012) ($ / Liter) 2.50 Antalya, Turkey 2.00 Bamako, Dodoma, 1.50 Mali Tanzania Windhoek, Djibouti Namibia Niamey, Niger Breakeven: Amman 1.00 Addis Ababa, Mining Dubai Ethiopia Construction 0.50 Abu Dhabi Telecom Doha Riyadh 0.00 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 Insolation - GHI (kWh /year/m2) Eurasia AfricaSource: Solargis, Indexmundi. Middle EastAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 13
  • 14. …and we are working to overcome the practicalhurdles to rolling out (hybrid) solar to these markets Containerized solar generator units Turbogenerator SystemsAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 14
  • 15. Conclusions PV is competitive today in the GW-scale off-grid market BUT Practical hurdles (load matching, transportability, diesel integration, customer perceptions, etc.) need to be solved to truly open up the marketAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 15
  • 16. Clean Energy Business Council (CEBC) / AmbataMENA Clean Energy Projects Map Please contribute: www.cleanenergybusinesscouncil.comAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 16
  • 17. Thank you! Q&AAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 17
  • 18. Interested in: off-grid power? investing in off-grid solar? developing a local market? setting up local manufacturing? Contact us: info@enerwhere.comAmbata / EnerwhereMarch 2013 MENASOL Webinar, March 2013 18