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predictive analytics for corp functions

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Learn how Corporate Functions like HR and Finance can leverage sophisticated solutions for predictive modeling, data mining and advanced visualization. …

Learn how Corporate Functions like HR and Finance can leverage sophisticated solutions for predictive modeling, data mining and advanced visualization.
Follow me on twitter @hschliebs

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  • Margin2years of history minimumProfitabilityCompany Performance: Correlations to external factors like GDP, Employment, S&P etcRegression (1 factor)Neural Network (all factors)Monte Carlo (Optimization)As many variables as possible!!!!Financial RiskWhere do we want to see outliers?Performance ManagementClustering / Payments:Late Payments (categorize clusters based on payment history: worst group, e.g.)  as much variables as possible as inputProfitable ProductsCombine algorithms, e.g.ROB KUGEL VENTANA: DIFFERENTIATION: WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT (PROBLEMS) NOW??? AND: VISUALIZATION IN CONTEXT TO THE SOLVED QUESTIONS2 scenarios:Planning supportSpecific AnalysisApproach: something that’ll do the basics flawlessly:easier visualization, easier interaction (data sets) and combination of financial and operational data (absence of detail in operational data)Start with FP&A people / roles  people who put together the financial plans. Describe it as a tool that makes the budgeting and planning forecast much more useful, FINANCE IS A STRATEGIC PARTNER FOR THE REST OF THE ORGANIZATION. 3 personas: PhD (work out model), Analyst (applies it to domain) and End User/Executives (uses results / visualizations and takes action)
  • Employee Performance Analysis: compare active vs. non-active performances per regionEffectiveness Analysis: Historical view on successful career paths – between job groupsWorkforce Performance: The bubblechartshowsustheold and thenewperformanceratings for theclusters - wecanseethatthe for cluser 3 (orange box) thenewratingsaresignificantlowerthantheoldratings – didthesepeopleleavebecausetheywere not successful?Proactive Talent turnover detection: Optimized career path management: build out profiles, i.e. clusterswith high densityallowingpredicthow a groupofemployeeswithcommoncharacteristicswouldbehave – thiswouldallowmitigatinginterventionsasactionscouldbetakenmorefocused, i.e. adresswithretention, development, mentoringspecificemployeegroups.Turnover Clustering: overviewoftheclustersthatcouldbeidentified, thesizetheyhave and theirdensity and wecanhave a high levelviewtocompareclusters
  • Employee Performance Analysis: compare active vs. non-active performances per regionEffectiveness Analysis: Historical view on successful career paths – between job groupsWorkforce Performance: The bubblechartshowsustheold and thenewperformanceratings for theclusters - wecanseethatthe for cluser 3 (orange box) thenewratingsaresignificantlowerthantheoldratings – didthesepeopleleavebecausetheywere not successful?Proactive Talent turnover detection: Optimized career path management: build out profiles, i.e. clusterswith high densityallowingpredicthow a groupofemployeeswithcommoncharacteristicswouldbehave – thiswouldallowmitigatinginterventionsasactionscouldbetakenmorefocused, i.e. adresswithretention, development, mentoringspecificemployeegroups.Turnover Clustering: overviewoftheclustersthatcouldbeidentified, thesizetheyhave and theirdensity and wecanhave a high levelviewtocompareclusters

Transcript

  • 1. Predictive Corporate Functions Henner Schliebs, July 2013
  • 2. Predictive Finance
  • 3. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 5 Finance Excellence: Guidance on, Guiding for the future Core functions of effective finance organizations include:  Reporting of historic financial information AND  Guidance on and guiding expected (future) results source: Association of Accountants and Financial Professionals in Business (IMA): Conceptual Framework for Managerial Costing
  • 4. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 6 The Finance Conundrum: What is the future ? Plans tell us where we want to go (vision), not where we are heading (direction) Based on the past, what is likely going to happen ? Which factors are correlated with or impact the future ? Vision (Plan) Direction (Reality) Indicators (Trends) Past Performance
  • 5. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 8 SAP Predictive Analysis - Finance Use Cases (examples) Cost, margin and other financial trends  Time series (Forecasting) Profitability analysis (A also bought XYZ)  Associations (Identification) Optimized performance management  Classification (Decision Trees) Proactive detection of financial risks  Outliers (Anomaly detection) Late payers - attributes (Receivables)  Clustering (Segmentation) Company performance (external factors)  Classification (Correlations) AnalyzeOptimize
  • 6. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 9 SAP Predictive Analysis - Key Finance process component SAP Predictive Analysis allows end-to-end SAP coverage for the record-to-act management process. Results of the analysis process step are used to take action (plan, re-plan, or management action outside SAP system) Record Report Analyze Act  SAP Predictive Analysis  SAP Net Margin Analysis  SAP Business Planning  SAP ERP  SAP EPM  BOBJ BI platform  SAP Accelerators  SAP ERP foundation  SAP Accelerators Record-to-act management process
  • 7. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 10 Manage Financial Risk SAP Predictive Analysis - Finance Value Proposition Optimize business opportunities Outperform Financial Objectives  Reach your business goals faster by turning dormant data into new opportunities  Stay agile and gain a competitive edge with efficient forecasting and planning  Solve problems before they happen by exposing hidden risks and hazards
  • 8. Flow of people
  • 9. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 15 SuccessFactors BizXWhat if we better understand the Flow of People at SAP? …We could show our internal talents a much broader range of realistic and proven paths for professional development and career progression at SAP and in this way promote triple career pathing. … We better understand the internal flow of talents and could think what to do to increase the number of key positions filled successfully internally …We could identify critical patterns that more often than not result in less successful internal movements, analyze the route causes and probably define actions to improve selection (match-to-job) and/ or improve onboarding to increase sustainability Currently our focus in communication and supporting career planning/ pathing is on movements within or job families, real life teaches us many people move between functional areas. …We could tell Early Talent that once they join SAP “they don´t need to change when they are up for a change” and contribute to a strong Employer Branding towards Milleniums
  • 10. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 16 Examples for considerations/ business impact that could be derived from understanding the Flow of People at SAP Increase Flexibility and Agility of the Organization Support Career Planning for Individuals Understand and Forecast Internal Supply Chain Globally 30% of open positions in Marketing were filled with people coming from Sales & Pre-Sales functions. People who move out of Development rather join Pre-Sales & Sales (50%) than Consulting (30%) 20% of people moving from a Development function into a Marketing function other than “Solution Marketing” have left SAP within 12 months after their move or had performance ratings below “meets expectations” We are facing a paradigm shift in Marketing (pull vs. push, social marketing) and a change in the regional/ solution focus. With these changes ahead can we assume the same numbers for internal supply for Marketing in the future coming from Sales & Pre-Sales? Potential Impact Dimension of Flow of People Analysis Example of Findings Considerations / Follow Up Actions What can we do to increase the flow into Consulting roles from the internal workforce in Development? As also sales/ pre-sales people travel mobility cannot be the only hindering factor. Understand from Marketing perspective of Marketing more inclusion of talent from Development is desired, if so consider related actions to support onboarding/ improve selection and consider alternative ways to support inclusion e.g. job rotation/ fellowships.
  • 11. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 18 SAP Predictive Analysis – SAP Internal Use Case for HR „Flow of People“ Focus: Analysis of internal transfers across job families and functional areas Expected Results: Identify re-curring and unhealthy patterns of career moves, classify and segmentated job groups as basis for further analysis by HR BPs Business drivers:  Increase organizational agility  Reduce talent attrition,  Increase employee engagement
  • 12. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 19 SAP Predictive Analysis – SAP Internal Use Case for HR „Flow of People“ Employee Performance Analysis  Time series (Forecasting) Effectiveness Analysis (successful career path)  Associations (Identification) Optimized career path management  Classification (Decision Trees) Turnover- attributes  Clustering (Segmentation) AnalyzeOptimize
  • 13. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 20 SAP Predictive Analysis – HR Use Cases (examples) Employee Performance Analysis  Time series (Forecasting) Effectiveness Analysis (successful career path)  Associations (Identification) Optimized career path management  Classification (Decision Trees) Proactive detection of talent turnover  Outliers (Anomaly detection) Turnover- attributes  Clustering (Segmentation) Workforce performance (movements)  Classification (Correlations) AnalyzeOptimize
  • 14. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 21 Manage Retention Risk SAP Predictive Analysis – HR Value Proposition Optimize employee performance Outperform HR Objectives  Evaluate your most important asset (employee) like you do for all other assets to create a performing and efficient organization  Stay agile and gain a competitive edge with a strong employer brand and a sophisticated workforce plan  Keep your high potentials and top performers within your organization - proactively
  • 15. © 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. Henner Schliebs Analytics Product Marketing @hschliebs henner henner.schliebs@sap.com hschliebs Predictive Finance Demo: http://bit.ly/PF-demo Predictive Finance Slides: http://bit.ly/PF-slides Predictive Finance Radio Show: http://bit.ly/PF-Radio1 Flow of people blog: http://bit.ly/SAP-TA-blog Talent Analytics Video: http://bit.ly/TA-YT